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[2008-1-9]海通证券--潍柴动力(000338)深度报告:08年pe摊

000338 01 6 59 08 92.36 130.00 458.00-109.30
2008
08 15
PE III
22 08c09 08c09
2007E 25.68 10.34
2008E 22.20 5.13 0.77 11.74
2009E 18.47 4.27 0.91 9.79
0.15 12.70
d
2007E 58065 A B /H 45415 0/12650 173.62 23.35 40.27 1.13 3.60 08 09
2008E 28.91 23.51 23.12 1.97 4.16
2003
07
29.5%
59.3%
60%
15 15 15 15 2008 2007.11.26
2008
2009 2003
2004
2004
2008
III 2008
III
2008
EPS
d
d
EPS 4.64 5.58 4.16 5.00
6000
08 09
c
d
15 08 09
r q d
c
021-23219473 Email zhaocx@htsec.com
d d
c
d
d
ü 1 9 2009E 20.32 24.54 23.11 2.30 5.00
d
c
d
d c
d
d d
d
d
c
$'7,%(9( *(3
2006 06
·
(000338)
1
....................................................................................................................................... 3 ................................................................................................................ 4 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. >15 III 08 2004 ......................................................................... 4 ....................................................................... 6 ................................................................................... 8 ....................................................................... 9
............................................................................................... 10 2009 ......................................................................... 11 ..................................................................................................... 11 ............................................... 11 ............................................... 12 ....................................................... 12
7. 2008 8.
8.1 8.2 8.3
......................................................................................................................................... 13 9. 9.1 9.2 9.3 ................................................................................................................ 13 .................................................................................. 13 .......................................................................................................... 13 .............................................................................................................. 14 ................................................................................................................. 15
c
09
...................................................... 9
c
·
(000338)
2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 8 9 15 10 11 12 2007 13 14
15 /
11
4 4 4 6 6 7 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 13
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
17
7
5 5 7 8 8 8 13 14
·
(000338)
3
15 25% 2008 15 2007 2009 EPS EPS 3.60 4.64 5.00 20%
5.58
6000
08 09
4.16
2003
07
29.5%
59.3%
2008 0 1 40 4.7 20 /
30 6
28
60% 15 15 100 15 2004 3 4 5
2008 2009
2004
15 2008
III
15
d
d
2003 2004 25 2008 2007 10.2% 2008
III
c
2006 06
d
d
d d
r q d d d d d d
d
d d d
c
d
c
c
d
d d
d
d
d
c
·
(000338)
4
1 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
2004 38.3% 2005 33.1 2007 59.3%
2008 2009
III
1. 2 25
2004
3 (%)
20
50 40 30 20
15
10
5 10
0 Jan-01 -5 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 0 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07
2004
2005
2004
2005

Q
60
2004
d
c
d
c c d
d B
d d B
·
(000338)
5
1 2003 63 1 2003 48 11 2004 37 5 2004 29 12 2005 50 6
2004 2005
40
2 2005 2006 2004 ( ) ( ) 2005 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004 2006 2007 2007 2007 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 ( ) ( ) 2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 2007 1 6 6 6 9 11 12 12 12 7 8 11 7 10 8 8 6 3 2 12 12 2007 2010 2006 2008 2010 2010 2011 2010 2010 2013 2008 2008 2009 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2008 2010 2010 2009 2010 2012 2009 2010 2008 5 6 8 11 9 6 10 7 3 133 942 202 152 147 117 440 244 291 350 357 115 280 69 229 275 278 353 485 995 485 190 105 145 144 246 904 92 1318 173
2010 2010
d
d
d
·
(000338)
6
2008
2010 3
10 2004
2. 4 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2003 2004 3 1
31
22
12
3
2005
2006
2007
2008E
2003 59.3%
2006 06 07
15 14 8-15
8-15 5
90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2004
2005
2006
15
d
2 15
c
d
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
100.00%
2007E
5
d
d
d
d
1 29.5%
d
c
d
·
(000338)
7
3 71
3 6 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
15
2006
2007E
3 2006 2007
15 15
6 2004
2006
2007 67.0 93.4 2006 2007
6.2%
25.8%
15
30%
30%
3
d
d d
d
d
d

d
d
c c c c c c 75 84
2004 2007 15
15
69
15
d
d
5
·
(000338)
8
4 17 17 35 488 488 0 972 700 272 25 1375 758 617 28 1674 790 884 30
437 17 272 5
25
6
HOWO
3. 40 10 40 40 / 1 / 10 10 20 / 4
40 40 2 1 / / 10 1 40
50%
d
d
d
d
d
d 17 25 4.36 28 9.88
7 30 14.16
100 20 4.36 25 17 30 7 25 14.16
d 24.94 21.07 20.14 12.63 266 410 266 410 266 410 140 260 6 12 6 9 6 9 5 6 25 25 25 14 -40 -40 -40 -19
14 25
-19 20
12.63
·
(000338)
9
7 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Jan-04
0
/
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
/ 6
30
28 40
4. 8 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2003 2004 2005
60% 85
15
5.
>15
08c09
d d d d 2006
d
d
0 1
4.7 20
d
5
d
·
(000338)
10
100 100 20 9 35 29.4 30 25 20 15.2 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2.6 3.5 4.5 12.1 9.1
25
4
5
15
2004 2008
15 15 2004 3 2003 25
2007 15
2008
2009
6.
III
20 10 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 III 2
25
2
48
17.44
4
4
2008
III
d
2008 III
d
2004 2008 10.2%
d
d c d
d
c
·
(000338)
11
7. 2008c2009 11
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2006
2008 15 22.5% 2008 2009 9.2
15
2008 2009 ”
15

8. 8.1 12 2007 11 , 20.03%
, 12.14% , 17.94%
, 11.73%
, 20.68%
, 17.47%
5 20
82.5% 15
c
 
d
d
d
d
d 155% 135% 115% 95% 75% 55% 35% 15% -5% -25% -45% 2007E 2008E 2009E
2008
15
c
?
d
·
(000338)
12
15 07
10% 13
13
, 9.00%
, 1.00%
, 12.50%
, 7.00%
, 21.50%
2008 2007
2007
8.2 15
2 2006 15 50% 3 5 3 80
8.3 III 31.5% III
20
d
d
c c , 49.00%
d
d d c c d
d c
10 15%
d
25%
·
(000338)
13
15
9. 9.1 7 50% 90
10
50
2 50
15 3 5
9.2 14 , 75%
, 20% , 5%
75% 20%
II 1900
WD12 2200
330-440
2008
d
d 25% 33% 10
d
d c d
d c d d
III
·
(000338)
14
III II 12L 35%
9.3 8 2007E 155044 2008E 186053 20% 88685 97554 10% 58161 70681 22% 438579 528731 21% 2009E 219542 18% 107309 10% 83403 18% 618616 17%
5.58
22 III



d
c
d
18% 6000 08 PE

c
2008 22%
20% 18 2007 2009 EPS 3.60 08 09 EPS 4.16
d
12L 7-8
5-6
30%
III
15
4.64 5.00
d
d d
·
(000338)
15
2006 P/E P/B P/S EV/EBITDA ----2006 / ------2006 ------% 2006 ----% 2006 --EBIT EBITDA ----
2007E 25.68 10.34 -12.70 2007E 0.66 0.09 7.96 1.10 0.82 0.14 2007E 23.82 13.53 6.69 40.27 8.29 22.66 2007E 107.37 67.32 290.38 88.75 2007E ------
2008E 22.20 5.13 0.77 11.74 2008E 0.54 0.03 12.39 1.42 1.14 0.40 2008E 24.01 14.41 7.61 23.12 8.00 16.68 2008E 104.49 65.55 342.57 90.11 2008E 13.26 14.02 20.39 20.62 28.91
2009E 18.47 4.27 0.91 9.79 2009E 0.52 0.02 14.64 1.46 1.18 0.32 2009E 25.04 14.89 7.89 23.11 8.48 17.09 2009E 95.70 62.99 335.26 89.32 2009E 16.03 21.10 23.16 19.92 20.32 EBIT EBITDA
2006 ----------------2006 --------------2006 ----------------
2007E 2799344 2132475 653778 158022 141231 302713 326246 52424 378670 -9870 4591 49995 70053 187256 23.82% 3.60 2007E 195009 823456 398789 1567890 690123 2258013 790891 43512 51097 1482870 310091 465052 51097 8.93 2007E 187256 52424 -180981 58699 101012 801 101813 -141021 -82322 -73098 11325 0 -23412 -105734 1.13
2008E 3170603 2409316 745435 174536 164125 373293 392773 63960 456733 4000 3380 56501 78785 241387 24.01% 4.16 2008E 635005 907678 438668 2223458 793641 3017100 949069 33120 61109 1631157 341100 1044842 61109 17.99 2008E 241387 63960 -190711 114636 190130 501 190631 -209010 -94374 -87098 -10101 550000 510130 415756 1.97
2009E 3678733 2757583 902757 209688 191294 463935 483755 63960 547715 0 3560 70124 106937 290434 25.04% 5.00 2009E 555678 964567 482535 2513245 912688 3425933 1043976 29807 67345 1794273 375210 1256450 67345 21.64 2009E 290434 63960 -221001 133393 250101 701 250802 -271231 -137838 -123010 15123 0 -15789 -153627 2.30
·
(000338)
16
78 85 70 0 1 234
19 14 11 0 0 15
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07
c d
c
d
c
d
6 6 6
d
6 6 6 6 6
15% 5% 15% -5% 5% -5% -15% -15% 5% 5% 5% 5%


 d c c c d c c d d c d d d d
·
(000338)
17
021 63411619 wangym@htsec.com
021 63411586 gaodd@htsec.com
021 23219439 skwu@htsec.com
021 23219403 luying@htsec.com
021 23219422 kljiang@htsec.com
021 23219409 chenmf@htsec.com
021 23219399 yezg@htsec.com
021 23219405 dingpin@htsec.com
021 23219402 zhangluan@htsec.com
021 23219404 dengyong@htsec.com
021 23219452 guqing@htsec.com
021 23219395 lianmk@htsec.com
021 23219421 liujin@htsec.com
021 23219408 maying@htsec.com
021 23219420 ymniu@htsec.com
021 23219413 qiucc@htsec.com
021 23219396 qiuzc@htsec.com
021 23219412 zhanwh@htsec.com
021 23219423 zhaot@htsec.com
021 23219411 longh@htsec.com
021 23219391 liuyq@htsec.com
021 23219389 panhw@htsec.com
021 23219401 shuaih@htsec.com
021 23219407 wangyh@htsec.com
021 23219390 wangs@htsec.com
021 23219436 xiey@htsec.com
021 23219473 zhaocx@htsec.com
021 23219414 yanp@htsec.com
021 23219406 yanghj@htsec.com
021 23219397 yelf@htsec.com
021 23219416 zhour@htsec.com
021 23219382 fankx@htsec.com
021 23219434 lml@htsec.com
021 23219435 chenl@htsec.com
021 23219433 zrchen@htsec.com
021 23219438 chenyong@htsec.com
021 23219432 wanghui@htsec.com
021 23219431 yujg@htsec.com
021 23219393 chenjiuhong@htsec.com
·
(000338)
18
021 23219387 wuyiping@htsec.com
021 23219440 huangzf@htsec.com
021 23219442 zhangdy@htsec.com
021 23219450 loujing@htsec.com
021 23219472 huqian@htsec.com
021 23219445 jiangjx@htsec.com
021 23219424 zqyong@htsec.com
021 23219448 shankj@htsec.com
021 23219449 wuxx@htsec.com
021 23219444 zhouj@htsec.com
021 23219400 zghan@htsec.com
021 23219381 hzh@htsec.com
021 23219386 gaoqin@htsec.comk
021 23219385 huxm@htsec.com
021 23219410 huangyu@htsec.com
021 23219384 jiwj@htsec.com
021 23219454 sunj@htsec.com
689 021 23219400 021 23219392 www.htsec.com
13

[2008-1-9]海通证券--潍柴动力(000338)深度报告:08年pe摊

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报告类型:研究报告 发布日期:2008/1/9
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内容简介

000338 01 6 59 08 92.36 130.00 458.00-109.30
2008
08 15
PE III
22 08c09 08c09
2007E 25.68 10.34
2008E 22.20 5.13 0.77 11.74
2009E 18.47 4.27 0.91 9.79
0.15 12.70
d
2007E 58065 A B /H 45415 0/12650 173.62 23.35 40.27 1.13 3.60 08 09
2008E 28.91 23.51 23.12 1.97 4.16
2003
07
29.5%
59.3%
60%
15 15 15 15 2008 2007.11.26
2008
2009 2003
2004
2004
2008
III 2008
III
2008
EPS
d
d
EPS 4.64 5.58 4.16 5.00
6000
08 09
c
d
15 08 09
r q d
c
021-23219473 Email zhaocx@htsec.com
d d
c
d
d
ü 1 9 2009E 20.32 24.54 23.11 2.30 5.00
d
c
d
d c
d
d d
d
d
c
$'7,%(9( *(3
2006 06
·
(000338)
1
....................................................................................................................................... 3 ................................................................................................................ 4 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. >15 III 08 2004 ......................................................................... 4 ....................................................................... 6 ................................................................................... 8 ....................................................................... 9
............................................................................................... 10 2009 ......................................................................... 11 ..................................................................................................... 11 ............................................... 11 ............................................... 12 ....................................................... 12
7. 2008 8.
8.1 8.2 8.3
......................................................................................................................................... 13 9. 9.1 9.2 9.3 ................................................................................................................ 13 .................................................................................. 13 .......................................................................................................... 13 .............................................................................................................. 14 ................................................................................................................. 15
c
09
...................................................... 9
c
·
(000338)
2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 8 9 15 10 11 12 2007 13 14
15 /
11
4 4 4 6 6 7 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 13
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
17
7
5 5 7 8 8 8 13 14
·
(000338)
3
15 25% 2008 15 2007 2009 EPS EPS 3.60 4.64 5.00 20%
5.58
6000
08 09
4.16
2003
07
29.5%
59.3%
2008 0 1 40 4.7 20 /
30 6
28
60% 15 15 100 15 2004 3 4 5
2008 2009
2004
15 2008
III
15
d
d
2003 2004 25 2008 2007 10.2% 2008
III
c
2006 06
d
d
d d
r q d d d d d d
d
d d d
c
d
c
c
d
d d
d
d
d
c
·
(000338)
4
1 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
2004 38.3% 2005 33.1 2007 59.3%
2008 2009
III
1. 2 25
2004
3 (%)
20
50 40 30 20
15
10
5 10
0 Jan-01 -5 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 0 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07
2004
2005
2004
2005

Q
60
2004
d
c
d
c c d
d B
d d B
·
(000338)
5
1 2003 63 1 2003 48 11 2004 37 5 2004 29 12 2005 50 6
2004 2005
40
2 2005 2006 2004 ( ) ( ) 2005 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004 2006 2007 2007 2007 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 ( ) ( ) 2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 2007 1 6 6 6 9 11 12 12 12 7 8 11 7 10 8 8 6 3 2 12 12 2007 2010 2006 2008 2010 2010 2011 2010 2010 2013 2008 2008 2009 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2008 2010 2010 2009 2010 2012 2009 2010 2008 5 6 8 11 9 6 10 7 3 133 942 202 152 147 117 440 244 291 350 357 115 280 69 229 275 278 353 485 995 485 190 105 145 144 246 904 92 1318 173
2010 2010
d
d
d
·
(000338)
6
2008
2010 3
10 2004
2. 4 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2003 2004 3 1
31
22
12
3
2005
2006
2007
2008E
2003 59.3%
2006 06 07
15 14 8-15
8-15 5
90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2004
2005
2006
15
d
2 15
c
d
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
100.00%
2007E
5
d
d
d
d
1 29.5%
d
c
d
·
(000338)
7
3 71
3 6 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
15
2006
2007E
3 2006 2007
15 15
6 2004
2006
2007 67.0 93.4 2006 2007
6.2%
25.8%
15
30%
30%
3
d
d d
d
d
d

d
d
c c c c c c 75 84
2004 2007 15
15
69
15
d
d
5
·
(000338)
8
4 17 17 35 488 488 0 972 700 272 25 1375 758 617 28 1674 790 884 30
437 17 272 5
25
6
HOWO
3. 40 10 40 40 / 1 / 10 10 20 / 4
40 40 2 1 / / 10 1 40
50%
d
d
d
d
d
d 17 25 4.36 28 9.88
7 30 14.16
100 20 4.36 25 17 30 7 25 14.16
d 24.94 21.07 20.14 12.63 266 410 266 410 266 410 140 260 6 12 6 9 6 9 5 6 25 25 25 14 -40 -40 -40 -19
14 25
-19 20
12.63
·
(000338)
9
7 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Jan-04
0
/
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
/ 6
30
28 40
4. 8 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2003 2004 2005
60% 85
15
5.
>15
08c09
d d d d 2006
d
d
0 1
4.7 20
d
5
d
·
(000338)
10
100 100 20 9 35 29.4 30 25 20 15.2 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2.6 3.5 4.5 12.1 9.1
25
4
5
15
2004 2008
15 15 2004 3 2003 25
2007 15
2008
2009
6.
III
20 10 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 III 2
25
2
48
17.44
4
4
2008
III
d
2008 III
d
2004 2008 10.2%
d
d c d
d
c
·
(000338)
11
7. 2008c2009 11
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2006
2008 15 22.5% 2008 2009 9.2
15
2008 2009 ”
15

8. 8.1 12 2007 11 , 20.03%
, 12.14% , 17.94%
, 11.73%
, 20.68%
, 17.47%
5 20
82.5% 15
c
 
d
d
d
d
d 155% 135% 115% 95% 75% 55% 35% 15% -5% -25% -45% 2007E 2008E 2009E
2008
15
c
?
d
·
(000338)
12
15 07
10% 13
13
, 9.00%
, 1.00%
, 12.50%
, 7.00%
, 21.50%
2008 2007
2007
8.2 15
2 2006 15 50% 3 5 3 80
8.3 III 31.5% III
20
d
d
c c , 49.00%
d
d d c c d
d c
10 15%
d
25%
·
(000338)
13
15
9. 9.1 7 50% 90
10
50
2 50
15 3 5
9.2 14 , 75%
, 20% , 5%
75% 20%
II 1900
WD12 2200
330-440
2008
d
d 25% 33% 10
d
d c d
d c d d
III
·
(000338)
14
III II 12L 35%
9.3 8 2007E 155044 2008E 186053 20% 88685 97554 10% 58161 70681 22% 438579 528731 21% 2009E 219542 18% 107309 10% 83403 18% 618616 17%
5.58
22 III



d
c
d
18% 6000 08 PE

c
2008 22%
20% 18 2007 2009 EPS 3.60 08 09 EPS 4.16
d
12L 7-8
5-6
30%
III
15
4.64 5.00
d
d d
·
(000338)
15
2006 P/E P/B P/S EV/EBITDA ----2006 / ------2006 ------% 2006 ----% 2006 --EBIT EBITDA ----
2007E 25.68 10.34 -12.70 2007E 0.66 0.09 7.96 1.10 0.82 0.14 2007E 23.82 13.53 6.69 40.27 8.29 22.66 2007E 107.37 67.32 290.38 88.75 2007E ------
2008E 22.20 5.13 0.77 11.74 2008E 0.54 0.03 12.39 1.42 1.14 0.40 2008E 24.01 14.41 7.61 23.12 8.00 16.68 2008E 104.49 65.55 342.57 90.11 2008E 13.26 14.02 20.39 20.62 28.91
2009E 18.47 4.27 0.91 9.79 2009E 0.52 0.02 14.64 1.46 1.18 0.32 2009E 25.04 14.89 7.89 23.11 8.48 17.09 2009E 95.70 62.99 335.26 89.32 2009E 16.03 21.10 23.16 19.92 20.32 EBIT EBITDA
2006 ----------------2006 --------------2006 ----------------
2007E 2799344 2132475 653778 158022 141231 302713 326246 52424 378670 -9870 4591 49995 70053 187256 23.82% 3.60 2007E 195009 823456 398789 1567890 690123 2258013 790891 43512 51097 1482870 310091 465052 51097 8.93 2007E 187256 52424 -180981 58699 101012 801 101813 -141021 -82322 -73098 11325 0 -23412 -105734 1.13
2008E 3170603 2409316 745435 174536 164125 373293 392773 63960 456733 4000 3380 56501 78785 241387 24.01% 4.16 2008E 635005 907678 438668 2223458 793641 3017100 949069 33120 61109 1631157 341100 1044842 61109 17.99 2008E 241387 63960 -190711 114636 190130 501 190631 -209010 -94374 -87098 -10101 550000 510130 415756 1.97
2009E 3678733 2757583 902757 209688 191294 463935 483755 63960 547715 0 3560 70124 106937 290434 25.04% 5.00 2009E 555678 964567 482535 2513245 912688 3425933 1043976 29807 67345 1794273 375210 1256450 67345 21.64 2009E 290434 63960 -221001 133393 250101 701 250802 -271231 -137838 -123010 15123 0 -15789 -153627 2.30
·
(000338)
16
78 85 70 0 1 234
19 14 11 0 0 15
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07
c d
c
d
c
d
6 6 6
d
6 6 6 6 6
15% 5% 15% -5% 5% -5% -15% -15% 5% 5% 5% 5%


 d c c c d c c d d c d d d d
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(000338)
17
021 63411619 wangym@htsec.com
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