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[2008-01-04]2008年第一季度医药行业投资策略:继续持有医药商业、创新药、品牌药龙头,配置普药、原料药龙头

2008-01-02 duanll@cjsc.com.cn yest@cjsc.com.cn yanpeng@cjsc.com.cn lvmeng@cjsc.com.cn
c c c 2007
q
r
c
2007 2009 A
12 250%
200%
100%
-50%
Wind
c
c
d
c
d
c
c c
r
0% Mar-07 Oct-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Apr-07 Jan-07 Feb-07 Sep-07 Jun-07 Jul-07
d
50%
c c
q c
150%
c
c
c
d c
PE 40x
115x 45x 35x 31x 10 15%
2008
2009 Wind
c c
c
c c c
c d d d
k d c d d
2008
c
6
c
             
......................................................................................................................2 ......................................................................................................................3 ..............................................................................................................4 ......................................................................................................................5 ......................................................................5 ......................................................................................6 ..............................................................6 ..................................................9 OTC ..................................................................................9 ........................................................................................10 .................................................................................................................... 11 ....................................................................................................................................13 ........................................................................................13
x
x
c c w w
..............................................................................1 ..............................................................................................................1 ......................................................................................................1 ..............................................................................1 GMP ............................................................1 ...........2 ..............................................................................2
1 2 3 4
2007 ..............................................4 ...................................................................................................5 ...............................................................................6 .......................................................................................................7
c
c
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 12
11 ....................................................................1 2007 .................................................................4 Wind 2007 2009 ........................................5 ...............................................................................................7 2006 2007.1-8 ........................................................8 .......................................................................................8 2004 CPI .......................................9 .............................................................................................10 VC / ......................................................................13 VE / ..............................................................................13 / ......................................................................13 VH / ............................................................................14 / ..........................................................................14 / ......................................................................14
2007
c
c 2007 24% 26% 50% 11 3
1
2007
11
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul-06 Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Feb- May- Aug- Nov06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07
CEIC
2007
10 3
1
1 “



“ ”

“ ”
2

80
160
3
GMP
225 56 167
2007 259 92
10
2008
1
1
169
d
x w
d c 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
d
d c c r q r q d
d x w
d
x
d
d
c c d
c
c
c c
x
w
c r
c
x
d c c
q r
c
c
q c
c
w
w
c
1 2 ” 3
4 5
” 8 157 300
SFDA 171
2007
11
19 7 2007 11 15 10
5
7 21.6% 3
2007
11
29
5% 7%
2007
12
26 2020
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
w d
w
d
c
x
d
r q x
d
c
r
d
c
c
c d
d
c c c c
c “ “ GMP
3

GMP
10
d 2010
d d 3
c 1.8% 2008
c 31%
c d 3
d
r r d d 2010
d
q d
q c c d c d d d 2008
d
d d d d
d d c d
c c d c
c c c c c
2007
3 5 8
11 12
2 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50%
2007
1 07 -1
6
7
9
4
1
2
3
5
8
0
07 -0
07 -0
07 -0
07 -0
07 -0
07 -0
Wind
DSM
*ST
10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 WIND
*ST
*ST
c
d
Wind 115x 45x 35x 2008 2009 15% Wind
c
c
d c
c
c
c c

c
07 -0
07 -0
07 -0
07 -1
% 273.62 72.47 66.45 58.22 49.38 44.50 44.04 41.48 38.67 35.54
2007 2009 A 40x 31x
07 -1
2
c c
c

PE 10
3 Wind 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 45 45 35 28 49 37 115 89 78
2007
2009
91 82 73 47 35 38 36 30 28 68 68 67 42 30 65 49 42 34 29 33 35 26 25 65 65 61 60 57 53 47 66 60 57 56 31 55 56 54 59 51 51 50 50 46 48 47 44 42 40 40 38 36 35 36 34 30 31 28 26
50
50
38 30 27 21
37 32 32 20
2007E
2008E
2009E
Wind
2005 2005 2006 9
2005 16
9
8
,
2007
8
2007
9
1985
1997
1997
2000
2006
9
16
2006
10
8

” 2006 10 23
d
d
q
2005
r
d d c
d
 
$
x
ý
q
ý
d
L: GQ
r
L: GQ
x
c
x c
L: GQ
L: GQ
ý
L: GQ L: GQ
ý L: GQ
c
L: GQ L: GQ ý
c
d
d
w
c
ý L: GQ
d
L: GQ
L: GQ
ý
c c
d
w
L: GQ
w
x
x
d
L: GQ
L: GQ ý L: GQ
d
d
r
L: GQ L: GQ
ý
w
L: GQ
ý L: GQ
r q
L: GQ
c
L: GQ L: GQ
d w
q
c L: GQ
c

2007
1
8
2007 2007 2007
7 9 10
2006
2006
2007
2008 2010
2008 40 10 40 2007 2 2008 2010 1.7 6% 2% 3 2009 80%
c
c
r q
c
d
r
q
q
d c
c
c
d
d
d
r
c
d
c
c
q
c
d d
d r c

2006.9.30 2006.12.31 2007.3.31 2007.6.30 2007.9.30
4.06 4.1 6.85 7.2 7.26
45.8% 47.2% 78.78% 82.83%
72%
5
1
2
1 2 4 1% 23% 27%
49%
2007
9
30
c
r
d
d r
d
q
q
d
c
r
d
d d
c
c
x
d d
q
 
w d r
d
q
 
d
d
c
 1433 1451 2319 2429 2448 50.7% 81.03% 84.87% 85.53%
2006 2005 2006 282 SFDA
SFDA SFDA 6441 2006 1803
1426
728
5 2006 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
2007.1-8 6400
5780
1779 1900 717 256 166 237 21
2006.1-8
2006
2007.1-8
SFDA
6 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2001 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
r
d
d d q c c
r r q d c d d c
q c
c
r q c d d
SFDA 386 2006
c
c
OTC 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100 99 98 97 96
d
c
d r q c
d d
,3&
d
c
q
d c r c c 50 70%
7 2004
Wind 100
CPI
q
20 04 . 20 11 05 . 20 01 05 . 20 03 05 . 20 05 05 . 20 07 05 . 20 09 05 . 20 11 06 . 20 01 06 . 20 03 06 2 0 .0 5 06 . 20 07 06 . 20 09 06 . 20 11 07 . 20 01 07 . 20 03 07 . 20 05 07 . 20 07 07 . 20 09 07 .1 1
d
c
OTC
c
r
d
3 5
r
q
d 20% CPI
OTC OTC
8
OTC
OTC
2007
2007
8
2008
2007
12
26 C
2007


c
x
c
c
d
w
r q
w
c
c
x
c
d
d d c x w d
2008
002038 2008
2007
2007 2009
0.80
1.27
1.74
000028
2007 2009
EPS 0.46
0.59
0.77
600488
50%
3
5
2007
11 12 2008
d r q
2008 0.595 0.888
2009
c
d
d c d r
q
d c d c r d d c c c c d c c d q q d d d c r c c d d c d d d d d
d
d
c
600666
25%
2007 2008 000952
0.32 0.46
18.4
2007
10
20
2007 2008 3 4
420 100%
500 /
/ 100%
800
/ 340-400 /
2007 2008
0.8
1.7
2800
350
/
c
c
d
c
d
d
2007 2008
d r q d c d 40%
d
x
d
r d d
w
c c c
q
x
d
c
r
d q c
w
9
8
10
20 06
20 06
20 06 0
100
120
140
160
180
200
100
20
40
60
80
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 9
VE 20 9 06 10 20 06 11 20 06
VC
20 06 20 06 20 06 12 20 07 11 10
20 9 06 10 20 06
/
12 20 07 1 20 07 20 07
/
/
1 20 07
11 20 06 12 20 07 1 20 07 2 20 07 3 20 07 4 5 6 20 07
2
2 20 07 3 20 07 4 20 07
&9
20 07
3
(9
20 07 20 07
4
5
(9
5 20 07 6 20 07
20 07 20 07 7 20 07 20 07
6

20 07
7

20 07
7 20 07 8 20 07 20 07 20 07 11 10 9
8
20 07
8
20 9 07 10 20 07 11 20 07 12
20 9 07 10 20 07 11 20 07 12
11
11
12 10000 10500
20 06 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500
20 06 20 9 06 20 10 06 20 11 06 12
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
50
70
90
1000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
VH
0 3.6
20 9 06 20 10 06 20 11 06 1 20 2 07
+9
3.23 5.1
/
20 07
/
20 1 07 20 2 07 20 3 07 20 4 07 20 5 07 20 6 07 20 7 07 20 8 07 20 9 07 20 10 07 20 11 07 12
20 1 07
/
6.4 7.18 8.8 8.15 9.25 10.9 11.8 11.29 12.12 12.27
20 2 07 20 3 07 20 4 07 20 5 07 20 6 07 20 7 07 20 8 07 20 9 07 20 10 07 20 11 07 12
200002 430015
130 8
5 (8621)63217917 FAX (8621)33130730
TEL E-mail ( ) E-mail
yangjf@cjsc.com.cn FAX (8621)51062920 guihm@cjsc.com.cn
TEL (8621)63516121
12 ,
/
12 , 10% 5% 10% -5% 5% -5%
/
http:// www.cjsc.com.cn
d
c
d c d c c d c d d c
l l

[2008-01-04]2008年第一季度医药行业投资策略:继续持有医药商业、创新药、品牌药龙头,配置普药、原料药龙头

发布机构:
报告类型:行业研究 发布日期:2008/1/4
报告评级:
撰写作者:
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内容简介

2008-01-02 duanll@cjsc.com.cn yest@cjsc.com.cn yanpeng@cjsc.com.cn lvmeng@cjsc.com.cn
c c c 2007
q
r
c
2007 2009 A
12 250%
200%
100%
-50%
Wind
c
c
d
c
d
c
c c
r
0% Mar-07 Oct-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Apr-07 Jan-07 Feb-07 Sep-07 Jun-07 Jul-07
d
50%
c c
q c
150%
c
c
c
d c
PE 40x
115x 45x 35x 31x 10 15%
2008
2009 Wind
c c
c
c c c
c d d d
k d c d d
2008
c
6
c
             
......................................................................................................................2 ......................................................................................................................3 ..............................................................................................................4 ......................................................................................................................5 ......................................................................5 ......................................................................................6 ..............................................................6 ..................................................9 OTC ..................................................................................9 ........................................................................................10 .................................................................................................................... 11 ....................................................................................................................................13 ........................................................................................13
x
x
c c w w
..............................................................................1 ..............................................................................................................1 ......................................................................................................1 ..............................................................................1 GMP ............................................................1 ...........2 ..............................................................................2
1 2 3 4
2007 ..............................................4 ...................................................................................................5 ...............................................................................6 .......................................................................................................7
c
c
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 12
11 ....................................................................1 2007 .................................................................4 Wind 2007 2009 ........................................5 ...............................................................................................7 2006 2007.1-8 ........................................................8 .......................................................................................8 2004 CPI .......................................9 .............................................................................................10 VC / ......................................................................13 VE / ..............................................................................13 / ......................................................................13 VH / ............................................................................14 / ..........................................................................14 / ......................................................................14
2007
c
c 2007 24% 26% 50% 11 3
1
2007
11
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul-06 Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Feb- May- Aug- Nov06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07
CEIC
2007
10 3
1
1 “



“ ”

“ ”
2

80
160
3
GMP
225 56 167
2007 259 92
10
2008
1
1
169
d
x w
d c 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
d
d c c r q r q d
d x w
d
x
d
d
c c d
c
c
c c
x
w
c r
c
x
d c c
q r
c
c
q c
c
w
w
c
1 2 ” 3
4 5
” 8 157 300
SFDA 171
2007
11
19 7 2007 11 15 10
5
7 21.6% 3
2007
11
29
5% 7%
2007
12
26 2020
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
w d
w
d
c
x
d
r q x
d
c
r
d
c
c
c d
d
c c c c
c “ “ GMP
3

GMP
10
d 2010
d d 3
c 1.8% 2008
c 31%
c d 3
d
r r d d 2010
d
q d
q c c d c d d d 2008
d
d d d d
d d c d
c c d c
c c c c c
2007
3 5 8
11 12
2 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50%
2007
1 07 -1
6
7
9
4
1
2
3
5
8
0
07 -0
07 -0
07 -0
07 -0
07 -0
07 -0
Wind
DSM
*ST
10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 WIND
*ST
*ST
c
d
Wind 115x 45x 35x 2008 2009 15% Wind
c
c
d c
c
c
c c

c
07 -0
07 -0
07 -0
07 -1
% 273.62 72.47 66.45 58.22 49.38 44.50 44.04 41.48 38.67 35.54
2007 2009 A 40x 31x
07 -1
2
c c
c

PE 10
3 Wind 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 45 45 35 28 49 37 115 89 78
2007
2009
91 82 73 47 35 38 36 30 28 68 68 67 42 30 65 49 42 34 29 33 35 26 25 65 65 61 60 57 53 47 66 60 57 56 31 55 56 54 59 51 51 50 50 46 48 47 44 42 40 40 38 36 35 36 34 30 31 28 26
50
50
38 30 27 21
37 32 32 20
2007E
2008E
2009E
Wind
2005 2005 2006 9
2005 16
9
8
,
2007
8
2007
9
1985
1997
1997
2000
2006
9
16
2006
10
8

” 2006 10 23
d
d
q
2005
r
d d c
d
 
$
x
ý
q
ý
d
L: GQ
r
L: GQ
x
c
x c
L: GQ
L: GQ
ý
L: GQ L: GQ
ý L: GQ
c
L: GQ L: GQ ý
c
d
d
w
c
ý L: GQ
d
L: GQ
L: GQ
ý
c c
d
w
L: GQ
w
x
x
d
L: GQ
L: GQ ý L: GQ
d
d
r
L: GQ L: GQ
ý
w
L: GQ
ý L: GQ
r q
L: GQ
c
L: GQ L: GQ
d w
q
c L: GQ
c

2007
1
8
2007 2007 2007
7 9 10
2006
2006
2007
2008 2010
2008 40 10 40 2007 2 2008 2010 1.7 6% 2% 3 2009 80%
c
c
r q
c
d
r
q
q
d c
c
c
d
d
d
r
c
d
c
c
q
c
d d
d r c

2006.9.30 2006.12.31 2007.3.31 2007.6.30 2007.9.30
4.06 4.1 6.85 7.2 7.26
45.8% 47.2% 78.78% 82.83%
72%
5
1
2
1 2 4 1% 23% 27%
49%
2007
9
30
c
r
d
d r
d
q
q
d
c
r
d
d d
c
c
x
d d
q
 
w d r
d
q
 
d
d
c
 1433 1451 2319 2429 2448 50.7% 81.03% 84.87% 85.53%
2006 2005 2006 282 SFDA
SFDA SFDA 6441 2006 1803
1426
728
5 2006 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
2007.1-8 6400
5780
1779 1900 717 256 166 237 21
2006.1-8
2006
2007.1-8
SFDA
6 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2001 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
r
d
d d q c c
r r q d c d d c
q c
c
r q c d d
SFDA 386 2006
c
c
OTC 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100 99 98 97 96
d
c
d r q c
d d
,3&
d
c
q
d c r c c 50 70%
7 2004
Wind 100
CPI
q
20 04 . 20 11 05 . 20 01 05 . 20 03 05 . 20 05 05 . 20 07 05 . 20 09 05 . 20 11 06 . 20 01 06 . 20 03 06 2 0 .0 5 06 . 20 07 06 . 20 09 06 . 20 11 07 . 20 01 07 . 20 03 07 . 20 05 07 . 20 07 07 . 20 09 07 .1 1
d
c
OTC
c
r
d
3 5
r
q
d 20% CPI
OTC OTC
8
OTC
OTC
2007
2007
8
2008
2007
12
26 C
2007


c
x
c
c
d
w
r q
w
c
c
x
c
d
d d c x w d
2008
002038 2008
2007
2007 2009
0.80
1.27
1.74
000028
2007 2009
EPS 0.46
0.59
0.77
600488
50%
3
5
2007
11 12 2008
d r q
2008 0.595 0.888
2009
c
d
d c d r
q
d c d c r d d c c c c d c c d q q d d d c r c c d d c d d d d d
d
d
c
600666
25%
2007 2008 000952
0.32 0.46
18.4
2007
10
20
2007 2008 3 4
420 100%
500 /
/ 100%
800
/ 340-400 /
2007 2008
0.8
1.7
2800
350
/
c
c
d
c
d
d
2007 2008
d r q d c d 40%
d
x
d
r d d
w
c c c
q
x
d
c
r
d q c
w
9
8
10
20 06
20 06
20 06 0
100
120
140
160
180
200
100
20
40
60
80
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 9
VE 20 9 06 10 20 06 11 20 06
VC
20 06 20 06 20 06 12 20 07 11 10
20 9 06 10 20 06
/
12 20 07 1 20 07 20 07
/
/
1 20 07
11 20 06 12 20 07 1 20 07 2 20 07 3 20 07 4 5 6 20 07
2
2 20 07 3 20 07 4 20 07
&9
20 07
3
(9
20 07 20 07
4
5
(9
5 20 07 6 20 07
20 07 20 07 7 20 07 20 07
6

20 07
7

20 07
7 20 07 8 20 07 20 07 20 07 11 10 9
8
20 07
8
20 9 07 10 20 07 11 20 07 12
20 9 07 10 20 07 11 20 07 12
11
11
12 10000 10500
20 06 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500
20 06 20 9 06 20 10 06 20 11 06 12
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
50
70
90
1000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
VH
0 3.6
20 9 06 20 10 06 20 11 06 1 20 2 07
+9
3.23 5.1
/
20 07
/
20 1 07 20 2 07 20 3 07 20 4 07 20 5 07 20 6 07 20 7 07 20 8 07 20 9 07 20 10 07 20 11 07 12
20 1 07
/
6.4 7.18 8.8 8.15 9.25 10.9 11.8 11.29 12.12 12.27
20 2 07 20 3 07 20 4 07 20 5 07 20 6 07 20 7 07 20 8 07 20 9 07 20 10 07 20 11 07 12
200002 430015
130 8
5 (8621)63217917 FAX (8621)33130730
TEL E-mail ( ) E-mail
yangjf@cjsc.com.cn FAX (8621)51062920 guihm@cjsc.com.cn
TEL (8621)63516121
12 ,
/
12 , 10% 5% 10% -5% 5% -5%
/
http:// www.cjsc.com.cn
d
c
d c d c c d c d d c
l l
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