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Bringing China to the World
2016 年 12 月 7 日
海外研究部晨会纪要 – 2016 年 12 月 7 日 投资要点:
Analyst Jill WU A0230514080002 AXT645 firstname.lastname@example.org (8621)23297269
惠理集团（806 HK，增持，HK$8.0） 分析师：张怡
2016年10月惠理集团管理的资产规模达到138亿美元，环比下降1.4%，同比下降12.1%。 基于深港通的开通带动起来的香港投资情绪的恢复以及随后可能到来的中港基金互认计 划的落实，我们保持对惠理集团未来表现的乐观预期。我们预计惠理管理的资产规模将 会在2016年底达到150亿美元，这将提高公司2016年的利润，也会产生同比相对稳定的管 理费。我们将惠理16-18年EPS修改为0.10/0.14/0.18港元，同比-30%/31%/29%。基于DDM 模型，我们得出目标价为8.0港元，对应0.12x 2017年的P/AUM，维持增持评级。 乘风而起。2016年前三季度，公司录得总申购额为29亿美元(第三季度申购额为9亿美 元)，除去47亿美元总赎回后(第三季度赎回而为14亿美元)，前三季度净赎回18亿美元 (第三季度净赎回为5亿美元)。2016年11月底，惠理主要基金(总资产管理规模的约50%) 的资产净值(NAV)平均比之前的高水位只低约3%。在惠理的产品中，旗舰产品价值基金的 资产净值已经达到了高水位线水平而公司规模最大的高息股票基金，距离先前的高水位 线水平只相差2%。我们期待公司两大主要基金资产净值的反弹将帮助公司在2016年末获 得理想的业绩表现费。 管理层变动。11月16日惠理行政总裁辞职，目前公司董事会主席谢清海代行行政总裁职 权。同时公司第三大股东(AMG)分别于6月和11月出售惠理股份，持股比例从原先的7%降 到4.99%。我们认为两个事件不会对惠理基金的表现造成负面的影响，因而两个事件对公 司收入的影响有限。因为行政总裁仅仅负责公司的管理而不是基金的管理，而AMG自从 2009年参与惠理的公司配股后，对惠理集团一直是持有被动的投资策略。 维持增持。我们预计市场情绪将会回升因而公司产品在2016年下半年的表现会优于2016 年上半年，最终在年底带来更高的业绩表现费。2016年下半年，我们相信二级市场会受 益于深港通的公布带来的市场情绪的爆发。我们将公司16-18年EPS预测0.20/0.23/0.24 港元调整为0.10/0.14/0.18港元，同比-30%/31%/29%，基于2%/5%/6%的主要基金的投资 回报率。基于DDM模型，我们得出目标价为8.0港元，对应0.12x 2017年的P/AUM，维持增 持评级。
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本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 国投瑞银 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司(firstname.lastname@example.org) 使用。1
Dec 7, 2016
Value Partners (806 : HK, Outperform, HK$ 8.0) Analyst: Yi Zhang
We expect Value Partners’ assets under management (AUM) to reach c.US$15.0bn by yearend (-3.8% YoY; vs US$13.8bn in October, down 1.4% MoM and 2.1% YoY), helping lift margins and resulting in stable management fees. Accounting for net redemptions in 9M16 and the fact that the net asset value (NAV) of its major funds remain below previous high watermarks, however, we lower our EPS forecasts from HK$0.20 to HK$0.10 in 16E (-30% YoY), from HK$0.23 to HK$0.14 in 17E (+31% YoY) and from HK$0.24 to HK$0.18 in 18E (+29% YoY). We revise down our target price from HK$9.8 to HK$8.0 and, with 18% upside, we maintain our Outperform rating. Net redemption in 9M16. Value Partners booked gross subscriptions of US$2.9bn in 9M16 (US$900m in 3Q16), which was offset by the redemption of US$4.7bn (US$1.4bn in 3Q16), resulting in a net redemption of US$1.8bn (US$500m in 3Q16). As of endNovember 2016, the NAV of its major funds (c.50% of total AUM) averaged at c.3% below previous high watermarks. Of its products, the flagship Classic Fund NAV is currently matching its high watermark, while the High-Dividend Stocks Fund, the largest public fund in Hong Kong, is only 2% away from its previous high watermark. We expect the turnaround of the two major funds’ NAV to help raise the company’s 16E performance fees. Times of change. After Value Partners’ chief executive officer (CEO) resigned in November, chairman Cheah was appointed as the company’s acting CEO. Meanwhile, its third largest shareholder Affiliated Managers Group (AMG:US) sold shares in June and November and now has a 4.99% stake in the company (vs 7% before). Nonetheless, we believe that these events will not negatively affect the performance of Value Partners’ funds and will have a limited effect on earnings as its CEO is not directly involved in fund management, and AMG has adopted a passive investment strategy towards Value Partners since its subscription to the company’s 2009 public placement. Maintain Outperform. We expect market sentiment to recover and the company’s products to perform better in 2H16 compared to 1H16, driving up performance fees. According to our sensitivity analysis, a 10% increase in AUM can result in an increase of 0.53% in earnings, and a 1% increase in investment returns can lift earnings by 0.4% in 16E. Assuming investment returns on major fund products of 2% in 16E, 5% in 17E and 6% in 18E, we lower our EPS forecasts from HK$0.20 to HK$0.10 in 16E (-30% YoY), from HK$0.23 to HK$0.14 in 17E (+31% YoY) and from HK$0.24 to HK$0.18 in 18E (+29% YoY). Based on a 0.12x 17E P/AUM, we revise down our target price from HK$9.8 to HK$8.0. We remain positive on the company’s outlook based on our expectation of a recovery in sentiment associated with the launch of the ShenzhenHong Kong Stock Connect and the mutual fund recognition programme and, with 18% upside, we maintain our Outperform rating.
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Dec 7, 2016
Information Disclosure： The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst. The analyst declares that neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of nor has any financial interests in relation to the listed corporation reviewed by the analyst. None of the listed corporations reviewed or any third party has provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in connection with this report to any of the analyst, the Company or the group company(ies). A group company(ies) of the Company confirm that they, whether individually or as a group (i) are not involved in any market making activities for any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (ii) do not have any individual employed by or associated with any group company(ies) of the Company serving as an officer of any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (iii) do not have any financial interest in relation to the listed corporation reviewed or (iv) do not, presently or within the last 12 months, have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation reviewed. Undertakings of the Analyst I (We) am (are) conferred the Professional Quality of Securities Investment Consulting Industry by the Securities Association of China and have registered as the Securities Analyst. I hereby issue this report independently and objectively with due diligence, professional and prudent research methods and only legitimate information is used in this report. I am also responsible for the content and opinions of this report. I have never been, am not, and will not be compensated directly or indirectly in any form for the specific recommendations or opinions herein. Disclosure with respect to the Company The company is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. The company is a qualified securities investment consulting institute approved by China Securities Regulatory Commission with the code number ZX0065. Releasing securities research reports is the basic form of the securities investment consulting services. The company may analyze the values or market trends of securities and related products or other relevant affecting factors, provide investment analysis advice on securities valuation/ investment rating, etc. by issuing securities research reports solely to its clients. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact firstname.lastname@example.org for the relevant disclosure materials or log into www.swsresearch.com for the analysts' qualifications，the arrangement of the quiet period and the affiliates’ shareholdings. Introduction of Share Investment Rating Security Investment Rating： When measuring the difference between the markup of the security and that of the market’s benchmark within six months after the release of this report, we define the terms as follows: Trading BUY: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20% upside over a 6-month period. BUY: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20% upside over a 12-month period. Outperform: Share price performance is expected to generate between 10-20% upside over a 12-month period. Hold: Share price performance is expected to generate between 10% downside to 10% upside over a 12-month period. Underperform: Share price performance is expected to generate between 10-20% downside over a 12-month period. SELL: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20% downside over a 12-month period. Industry Investment Rating: When measuring the difference between the markup of the industry index and that of the market’s benchmark within six months after the release of the report, we define the terms as follows: Overweight：Industry performs better than that of the whole market； Equal weight： Industry performs about the same as that of the whole market； Underweight：Industry performs worse than that of the whole market. We would like to remind you that different security research institutions adopt different rating terminologies and rating standards. We adopt the relative rating method to recommend the relative weightings of investment. The clients’ decisions to buy or sell securities shall be based on their actual situation, such as their portfolio structures and other necessary factors. The clients shall read through the whole report so as to obtain the complete opinions and information and shall not rely solely on the investment ratings to reach a conclusion. The Company employs its own industry classification system. The industry classification is available at our sales personnel if you are interested. HSCEI is the benchmark employed in this report.
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Dec 7, 2016
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本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 国投瑞银 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司(firstname.lastname@example.org) 使用。4
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