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Defensive quality in a cyclical industry

摩根大通

Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
6837.HK, 6837 HK
Haitong Securities Defensive quality in a cyclical industry
Overweight Price: HK$10.60
Price Target: HK$12.50 600837.SS, 600837 CH Neutral Price: Rmb10.46
Price Target: Rmb10.00
We initiate on Haitong Securities (HTS) with an OW rating on the H share and a Neutral rating on the A share. Price targets (Dec-12) are HK$12.5 (H share) and Rmb10 (A share). HTS is the second-largest listed securities firm in China, with 4% brokerage market share. Its defensive qualities explain its survival throughout market cycles, but this does not change the cyclical nature of its share price. Among China brokers, we prefer HTS on the back of its cheaper valuation for its defensive nature in times of market volatility. ? Defensive qualities; cyclical industry: HTS’s defensive qualities are (1) strong cost discipline, (2) conservative investment strategy, and (3) low financial leverage. However, 88% of fee income is market-related (55% brokerage, 15% underwriting, 18% asset mgmt). Conservative management helped HTS to survive market cycles but does not materially change its cyclical share price performance. ? Catalysts and risks: Catalysts include (1) Haitong Futures to drive derivative market share, (2) margin financing to drive interest income, and (3) early mover in overseas expansion for better cross-border synergy opportunities. Risks are (1) smaller balance sheet could drag on underwriting business, and (2) conservative leverage could cap ROE rerating potential. ? Valuation: Our PT is based on P/B. We estimate a fair P/B of 1.6x for both HTS-A and H. Our PT of Rmb10 for HTS-A and HK$12.5 for HTS-H implies 26x EPS (FY12E). HTS-H is trading at a 15% discount to HTS-A and 12% discount to CITICS-H. We prefer HTS-H in the sector because of its cheaper valuation and more defensive fundamentals. Haitong Securities - H (Reuters: 6837.HK, Bloomberg: 6837 HK) Year-end Dec (Rmb in mn) FY10A FY11A FY12E Operating Profit (Rmb mn) 4,755 4,095 4,786 Net Profit (Rmb mn) 3,686 3,103 3,571 Cash EPS (Rmb) 0.448 0.377 0.391 EPS (Rmb) 0.45 0.38 0.39 DPS (Rmb) 0.15 0.15 0.16 EPS Growth -19.0% -15.8% 3.7% ROE 8.4% 6.9% 6.8% P/E 19.3 22.9 22.1 BVPS (Rmb) 5.40 5.47 6.25 P/BV 1.6 1.6 1.4 Div. Yield 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
China Banks & Finance Joseph Leung AC
(852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Josh Klaczek (852) 2800-8534 josh.klaczek@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
FY13E 5,744 4,261 0.445 0.44 0.15 13.7% 6.9% 19.4 6.65 1.3 1.7%
FY14E 6,901 5,093 0.532 0.53 0.15 19.6% 7.7% 16.2 7.15 1.2 1.7%
Company Data 52-wk range (HK$) Market cap (Rmb mn) Market cap ($ mn) Shares outstanding (mn) Fiscal Year End Price (HK$) Date Of Price Avg daily value (HK$ mn) Avg daily value ($ mn) Avg daily vol (mn) HSI Exchange Rate Rating
11.70 - 10.12 11,670 1,845 1,493 Dec 10.60 30 May 12 55.2 7.1 40.0 19,055 7.77 Price Target Cur Prev 12.50 10.00
Equity Ratings and Price Targets Company Haitong Securities - H Haitong Securities - A Symbol 6837.HK 600837.SS Mkt Cap ($ mn) 1,845.01 13,606.37 Price CCY HKD CNY Price 10.60 10.46 Cur OW N Prev NC NC
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P.Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 30 May 12.
See page 38 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.morganmarkets.com
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Company Data 52-wk range (Rmb) Market cap (Rmb mn) Market cap ($ mn) Shares outstanding (mn) Fiscal Year End Price (Rmb) Date Of Price Avg daily value (Rmb mn) Avg daily value ($ mn) Avg daily vol (mn) SSEA Exchange Rate
10.55 - 7.05 86,063 13,606 8,092 Dec 10.46 30 May 12 94.6 15.0 67.6 2,503 6.33
Haitong Securities - A (Reuters: 600837.SS, Bloomberg: 600837 CH) Year-end Dec (Rmb in mn) FY10A FY11A FY12E FY13E Operating Profit (Rmb mn) 4,755 4,095 4,786 5,744 Net Profit (Rmb mn) 3,686 3,103 3,571 4,261 Cash EPS (Rmb) 0.448 0.377 0.391 0.445 EPS (Rmb) 0.45 0.38 0.39 0.44 DPS (Rmb) 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.15 EPS Growth -19.0% -15.8% 3.7% 13.7% ROE 8.4% 6.9% 6.8% 6.9% P/E 23.3 27.7 26.7 23.5 BVPS (Rmb) 5.40 5.47 6.25 6.65 P/BV 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 Div. Yield 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
FY14E 6,901 5,093 0.532 0.53 0.15 19.6% 7.7% 19.7 7.15 1.5 1.4%
Company Description Headquartered in Shanghai, Haitong Securities is the second largest securities firm in China in terms of total assets and net assets as of Dec 31, 2011. Leveraging on its integrated business platform and an extensive network of 216 brokerage branches, Haitong engages in securities and futures brokerage, investment banking, asset management, proprietary trading and direct investment. Seven of the 10 largest shareholders are controlled by Shanghai SASAC and these shareholders hold a total shareholding of roughly 26.5%.
P&L sensitivity metrics FY12E CSI300 y/y 20% for every 10%pt A-share velocity 180% for every 40%pt IPO y/y 40% for every 20%pt Brokerage market share 4.2% for every 0.5%pt Brokerage comm rate 0.05% for every 0.01%pt Lead IPO market share 5% for every 2%pt Lead IPO comm rate 3% for every 1%pt
Operating profit impact (%) 1.7% 5.0% 1.8% 3.1% 6.8% 3.3% 2.9%
EPS impact (%) 1.7% 5.0% 1.8% 3.1% 6.9% 3.3% 3.0% -1.2%
CIR 51% for every 1%pt -1.2% Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: CIR constant for non-CIR sensitivity.
Price target and valuation analysis Brokerage / AA xClient$ 5.0% 1.5% 10.3% 16.8% 45.0% 9.5% 6.8% Risk-free rate Equity risk premium Beta COE Terminal growth Fair P/B Fair value (Rmb) Fair value (HKD) Fair P/E FY1 EPS (Rmb) FY1 DPS (Rmb) Fair value (PE method) (Rmb) Fair value (PE method) (HKD) CNY:USD 4.5% 6.0% 1.1 11.1% 7.0% 1.61 10.0 12.4 15.5 0.4 0.2 8.4 10.4 6.3
Earnings mix chart (FY11) Other segment 20% Securities underwriting 13% Prop trading 12% Source: Company reports.
Underwriting / AA xClient$ Fees / AA xClient$ TR / AA xClient$ CIR
Brokerage 45%
PBToA (xClient$) ROA (xClient$)
Asset mgt 10%
ROE 13.6% Our price target is based upon DDM methodology. We use a fair P/B based multiple of 1.6x, with a normalised ROE of 13.6%. Our HK$ price target is based on CNY:USD of 6.3.
EPS: J.P. Morgan vs consensus FY12E FY13E FY14E J. P. Morgan 0.39 0.44 0.53 Consensus 0.46 0.51 0.61
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Our PT (Dec-12, DDM-derived) of Rmb13 and HK$16 implies a P/BV of 1.6x and P/E of 25.5x (FY12E). Key upside risk to PT is better market share gain from underwriting, and downside risk is execution risk from deploying excess capital. Swing factors are market turnover, market share and commission rate. Industry risks are policy change to encourage banks to participate in investment banking, or if the market pre-maturely opens to foreign investment banks
Table 1: Peer valuation 30-May-12 CITIC Sec-H CITIC Sec-A Haitong-H Haitong-A GF Sec-A CM Sec-A Huatai Sec-A Ticker 6030 HK 600030 CH 6837 HK 600837 CH 000776 CH 600999 CH 601688 CH Price Mkt Cap Rating (LC) (US$m) 15.7 23,774 N 13.82 23,774 N 10.6 15,354 OW 10.46 15,354 N 32.13 14,960 N 13.71 10,053 NR 11.44 10,079 NR PE 12E 25.1 27.0 22.2 26.7 45.2 19.9 23.3 13E 19.2 20.7 19.5 23.5 34.2 18.4 19.6 PB 12E 1.60 1.72 1.39 1.67 2.89 2.36 1.83 13E 1.51 1.62 1.31 1.57 2.75 2.15 1.74 Div yld 12E 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.6 1.3 13E 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.9 1.3 ROE 12E 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.5 11.9 6.6 13E 8.1 8.1 6.9 6.9 8.2 12.6 8.1 Tot return -1m -1% 3% 0% 1% 7% 7% 9% -3m -5% 24% n.a. 21% 17% 13% 24% ytd 23% 42% n.a. 41% 53% 35% 46%
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: Bloomberg consensus for non-rated companies.
2
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Table of Contents Investment thesis ........................3 Historical valuation .....................7 Valuation .......................................9 Performance drivers..................13 Earnings sensitivity...................16 Historical performance .............18 Segmental analysis ...................19 Financial analysis ......................24 Company background ..............29
Investment thesis Defensive quality vs. cyclical industry Brokerage business nature is cyclical, and Haitong Securities (HTS) is no exception. Beta of 1.2 (Bloomberg adjusted) reflects market index is the major driver of the share price. Brokerage is 55% of fees, with another 15% from underwriting and 18% from asset management (FY11). All three major sources of income are closely correlated with market conditions. However, relative to peers, HTS displays defensive qualities: (1) Strong cost discipline, (2) conservative investment strategy, and (3) low financial leverage. This helped HTS to survive in this cyclical industry throughout the crisis. However, this does not protect share price from downside risk in bear markets. In 2008 when CSI300 dropped by 66%, HTS-A also fell by 70%. Figure 1: Fees breakdown, FY11 Others 12%
Figure 2: HTS: Relative price performance 150% HTS-A CSI300 100% 50%
Trust asset mgt 18% Earnings sensitivity ? ? ? ? ? ? 0.5%pt brokerage market share = 3% EPS 10bp brokerage commission rate = 7% EPS 10%pt CSI300 = 2% EPS 40%pt velocity = 5% EPS 2%pt IPO market share = 3% EPS 100bp IPO commission rate = 3% EPS
Brokerage 55% Securities underwriting 15% Source: Company reports.
0% -50% -100% 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Bloomberg.
Performance drivers Stock market drives absolute share price performance of HTS. Velocity, IPO, and regulation changes drive sector performance relative to the index, but not HTS performance relative to peers. Market share and commission rate are the only two factors that drive the performance relative to peers. Absolute performance drivers ? A market rally is the largest absolute share price performance driver. The trading history of HTS-A is closely related to CSI300. High beta also reflects higher share price volatility than CSI300. ? A market rally is likely to result in larger market values and thus higher turnover value, assuming that velocity stays constant. Drivers of its performance relative to the index ? Velocity: Relative to Hong Kong, China’s stock market velocity is high, volatile, and less related to share price volatility. Since October 1998, the mean velocity is 147%, with a standard deviation of 88%. Both the mean and standard deviation of velocity are higher than Hong Kong’s mean of 75% and standard deviation of 31%. We assume a velocity of 235% in FY13-14E, 1sd above the historical average. ? IPO and lock-up expiry: HTS completed 3 IPOs in 2012 and there are another 8 in the pipeline. We assume total IPO volume will grow +40% Y/Y in FY12E, after declining by 43% in FY11. Also, 8% of the current A-share market capitalization will have lock-up expiry, with 70% expiring in 2H12. Higher floats will likely to increase turnover. 3
Figure 3: China velocity and share price volatility 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 0.00% velocity 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% CSI300 return 1998-2006 2007 onwards
Source: CEIC.
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Table 2: HTS upcoming and recent underwriting transactions Name Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co Ltd Ningbo Hualong Electronics Co Ltd Shanghai Beite Metal Works Co Ltd JDM JingDa Machine Ningbo Co Ltd Shanghai Zhongji Pile Industry Co Ltd Ciming Health Checkup Management Group Co Ltd Hainan Shuangcheng Pharmaceuticals Co Ltd Shanghai New Culture Media Group Co Ltd Epoxy Base Electronic Material Corp Ltd Anshan Heavy Duty Mining Machinery Co Ltd Xinzhi Motor Co Ltd Source: Bloomberg.
Ticker n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 603002 CH Equity 002667 CH Equity 002664 CH Equity
Trading Date n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. May-12 Mar-12 Mar-12
Amount (US$ mn) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 57 67 85
Figure 4: HTS: Equity raising and underwriting fees (Rmb mn) 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Underwriting fees Equity raising 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
Figure 5: China lock-up expiries as % of market cap (2012) 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Oct-12 Nov-12 May-12 Dec-12 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12
Source: Company reports, CEIC. Note: Equity raising is expressed as % of avg mkt cap.
Source: WIND. Note: As % of current market capitalization (SHSZ)
Upside potential (relative performance) Continuous new share issues and higher free-float as lock-up periods expire New product development Regulation promote consolidation Downside potential (relative performance) Regulation allows competition Swing factors Trading velocity Market share changes Commission rate movements
Drivers of performance relative to peers ? Brokerage market share has been steady at 4% or above. With an expanding branch network, we think market share should stay h above 4%. Bond market share was higher than equity, but commission rate was much lower. ? Brokerage commission rate: Cash equity market competition is keen. Brokerage commission rate of HTS continued to fall since 2009. We expect the industry to remain fragmented and competitive, and thus we think commission rate is unlikely to recover. ? Underwriting market share fluctuated between 2% and 5%. Because of a smaller balance sheet, HTS has been focused on SME segment. Given the smaller size of SME transactions, we expect market share of underwriting is unlikely to sustainably increase. ? Underwriting commission rate was volatile because of changing transaction mix. Some SME transactions offer attractive commission rate. Average commission rate was 2.8% in FY06-10, and we assume 3% for FY12-14.
4
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Figure 6: HTS brokerage commission rate 0.14% 0.12% 0.10% 0.08% 0.06% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% FY06 Source: Company reports.
Figure 7: HTS market share of brokerage business 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Comm rate 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% bond fund equity derivatives
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
Source: Company reports and CEIC
Figure 8: HTS underwriting commission rate (lead) 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% FY06 Source: Company reports.
Figure 9: HTS market share of underwriting business (lead) 8% IPO 7% 6% 5% 4% Place (new) 3% 2% 1% 0% FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Source: Company reports and CEIC
IPO Total Non-IPO
Place (sec)Bond FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
Investment catalysts Margin financing of HTS achieved number 1 market share in FY11. This has driven +53% in net interest income in FY11. We expect continuous development of margin financing could provide a stable source of income for HTS, while at the same time risk management is under control. The key to a critical mass is a stable relationship with banks, in our view. International platform: After acquisition of Taifook Securities in 2009, Haitong is one of the largest retail brokerages in Hong Kong. Together with HFT Investment Management, HTS is an early mover in overseas expansion. We expect HTS could realize potential cross-border synergy opportunities, including underwriting more Hshare listings and cross-border investment products, such as RQFII, ETF and QDII.
Investment risks Conservative leverage: HTS has deliberately managed down its financial leverage. While this has helped HTS to survive volatile equity market cycles, low financial leverage could cap ROE upside potential. To continuously implement conservative financial leverage and at the same time uplift its ROE to a higher level will require a strong partner, which HTS has yet to find, in our view.
5
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Small balance sheet: HTS has a relatively smaller balance sheet. This has pushed HTS to focus on SME underwriting. While SME underwriting could occasionally offer a higher commission rate, entry barrier is lower as it requires less capital strength. We expect competition to erode underwriting commission rate of HTS in medium term.
Earnings, share price, and valuation Table 3: HTS key assumptions of earnings CSI300 y/y A-share velocity IPO y/y Brokerage market share Brokerage comm rate Lead IPO market share Lead IPO comm rate CIR Attributable profit FY10 -13% 226% 165% 4.08% 0.090% 5% 2.2% 51% 3,686 FY11 -25% 162% -43% 4.12% 0.054% 3% 7.1% 50% 3,103 FY12E 20% 180% 40% 4.18% 0.050% 5% 3.0% 51% 3,571 FY13E 20% 235% 15% 4.18% 0.050% 5% 3.0% 51% 4,261 FY14E 15% 235% 10% 4.18% 0.050% 5% 3.0% 50% 5,093
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Figure 10: HTS: Relative share price performance (since listing) Indexed
Figure 11: HTS-A: One-year forward P/E band Rmb
120 100 80 60 40 20 Feb-08 May-08
HTS-A (total return) SHCOMP
CSI300
Feb-09
May-09
Feb-10
May-10
Feb-11
May-11
Nov-07
Aug-08
Nov-08
Aug-09
Nov-09
Aug-10
Nov-10
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
Source: Bloomberg.
Source: Bloomberg.
6
Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12
0
50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
59x 45x 31x 18x 4x
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Quarterly highlights 1Q12 net profit was +180% q/q and -11% y/y because of absence of investment write-downs. 1Q12 net profit was 29% of our FY12 estimate. EPS was Rmb0.13, 180% q/q and similar to 1Q-2Q11 level. ROE was 9.2%, annualized. Brokerage fees were encouraging, +25%. Brokerage fees per trading day also rose by 15% q/q. Client money rose marginally by 4%. Underwriting fees rebounded by 123% q/q from trough in 4Q11. Total fees grew by 16% h/h and non-fees revenue has been largely flat q/q. Cost fell by 9% y/y, which is tracking better than our expectations. Outlook for 2Q12 remains solid, with average daily turnover continues to recover to Rmb164 billion, +7% q/q. IPO pipeline remains strong, but the actual listing would be a function of market appetite. Table 4: HTS: Quarterly highlights Rmb in millions Income statement Brokerage fees net income Securities underwriting fees net income Fees and commissions income Total revenue Total cost Asset provision charge Operating profit (reported) Pretax profit Attributable profit Balance sheet Investments Total assets ex client money Client money Total assets Shareholders' funds Per share data Shares (period end, FD, restated) EPS (restated) BVPS (restated) Ratios Brokerage fees / trading days Brokerage / fees Fees / AA xClient$ Fees / AE TR / AA xClient$ CIR PBToA (xClient$) ROA (xClient$) ROE AE / AAxClient$ Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
1Q11 1,031 266 1,634 2,651 1,075 0 1,575 1,608 1,185 1Q11 22,180 64,398 47,351 111,749 45,796 1Q11 8,228 0.14 5.57 1Q11 18 63% 11.0% 14.5% 18% 41% 0.0% 8.6% 10.5% 76%
2Q11 808 270 1,512 2,562 1,121 -1 1,442 1,455 1,050 2Q11 23,977 62,711 43,257 105,968 45,153 2Q11 8,228 0.13 5.49 2Q11 13 53% 9.5% 13.3% 16% 44% 0.0% 7.1% 9.2% 72%
3Q11 708 202 1,350 1,686 1,010 44 633 667 494 3Q11 27,152 65,243 35,624 100,867 44,802 3Q11 8,228 0.06 5.45 3Q11 11 52% 8.4% 12.0% 11% 60% 0.0% 3.3% 4.4% 70%
4Q11 494 100 1,026 2,321 1,412 465 444 570 374 4Q11 27,694 64,062 34,815 98,876 45,042 4Q11 8,228 0.05 5.47 4Q11 8 48% 6.3% 9.1% 14% 61% 0.0% 2.4% 3.3% 69%
1Q12 616 224 1,189 2,413 976 20 1,417 1,433 1,049 1Q12 27,900 72,038 36,199 108,237 46,283 1Q12 8,228 0.13 5.63 1Q12 9 52% 7.0% 10.4% 14% 40% 0.0% 6.5% 9.2% 67%
q/q 25% 123% 16% 4% -31% -96% 219% 151% 180% q/q 1% 12% 4% 9% 3% q/q 0% 180% 3% q/q 15% 4% 1% 1% 0% -20% 0% 4% 6% -2%
y/y -40% -16% -27% -9% -9% 28163% -10% -11% -11% y/y 26% 12% -24% -3% 1% y/y 0% -11% 1% y/y -47% -11% -4% -4% -4% 0% 0% -2% -1% -9%
as % of 12E 21% 26% 21% 25% 20% n.a. 30% 29% 29% as % of 12E 78% 88% 104% 93% 77% as % of 12E 86% 33% 90% as % of 12E 80%
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Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Historical valuation Table 5: HTS-A: Valuation summary (since Dec 2006) 12m FY11 FY12 FY13 Avg SD SD fr Avg Source: Bloomberg.
Figure 12: HTS: Relative share price performance (since listing) Div Yld na 1.4% na na 1.0% 0.5% na Indexed
P/B 1.73 1.90 1.79 1.62 2.93 1.46 -0.8
P/E 20.9 27.3 21.8 19.2 31.4 13.7 -0.8
120 100 80 60 40 20 Feb-08 May-08
HTS-A (total return) SHCOMP
CSI300
Feb-09
May-09
Feb-10
May-10
Feb-11
May-11
Nov-07
Aug-08
Nov-08
Aug-09
Nov-09
Aug-10
Nov-10
Aug-11
Source: Bloomberg.
Figure 13: HTS-A: One-year forward P/B band Rmb
Figure 14: HTS-A: One-year forward P/B band x
Jan-07 May-07
Jan-08
Sep-08 Jan-09
Jan-10 May-10
Jan-11
Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12
May-08
May-09
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Figure 15: HTS-A: One-year forward P/E band Rmb
Figure 16: HTS-A: One-year forward P/E band x
Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12
Jan-07 May-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08 Jan-09
May-09
Jan-10 May-10
Jan-11
May-11
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
8
Sep-11 Jan-12
50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
59x 45x 31x 18x 4x
80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0
May-11
Sep-11 Jan-12 +2sd +1sd Avg -1sd -2sd
40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
5.9x 4.4x 2.9x 1.5x 0.0x
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
Nov-11
+2sd +1sd Avg -1sd Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-10
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-10
Feb-12
0
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Valuation A share premium over H shares The HTS-H share price is trading at an 18% discount to HTS-A. Since listing, average A/H premium was 14%. Because of the short listing history, HTS A/H share premium may not be representative of potential for mean reversion. There are 71 dual-listed stocks, including CITICS and HTS, and excluding three stocks that were either suspended or pending listing. These H-share stocks, on average, are trading at a 7% discount to A-shares (market-cap weighted). Therefore, HTS-H share is trading at a discount wider than other dual listed stocks. Figure 17: HTS: Historical A-share premium over H-share 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 10-May-12 12-May-12 14-May-12 16-May-12 18-May-12
Figure 18: Market A-share premium over H-share 100% 80% avg 60% 40% 20% 0% A shares premium
0% 26-Apr-12 28-Apr-12 30-Apr-12 2-May-12 4-May-12 6-May-12 8-May-12
-20% -40% 0 Source: Bloomberg.
50
100
150
200
250
Mkt cap US$bn 300 350
Source: Bloomberg.
Fair valuation Fair P/B valuation Our base valuation methodology is P/B, because HTS earnings are based on transactions and flows, and the scale of its business is constrained by capital ratios regulated by the CSRC (China Securities Regulatory Commission). A change in capital regulation will affect the maximum leverage that HTS can take, and thus HTS’s market share as well as profitability. We use a risk-free rate of 4.5% and market risk premium of 6%, in line with other Chinese companies. We assume a terminal growth rate of 7%, 250bp higher than the risk-free rate to reflect potential growth driven by continuous financial innovation. Our terminal growth rate is also at the lower range of medium-term real GDP growth outlook. Against CSI300, HTS-A has a Bloomberg raw beta of 1.3 and an adjusted beta of 1.2, with two years of pricing data. We apply a beta of 1.1 in our valuation model, slightly lower than adjusted beta of HTS-A. Our cost-of-equity estimate is 11.1%. Our normalized ROE assumption is 13.6%, based on: (1) fees-to-assets ratio, excluding client money, of 10%; (2) other income, including investment income, to be 6.5% of the assets, excluding client money; (3) cost-to-income ratio of 45%; and (4) equity-to-assets ratio, excluding client money, of 50%.
9
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
We think that our normalized ROE assumption is relatively optimistic, compared with the FY14E ROE forecast of 7.7%, in which we have factored in 235% velocity (1sd above mean), a flat brokerage market share and commission rate. The main difference between the normalized ROE and FY14E ROE is higher leverage. We think latest margin financing business could allow HTS to leverage up its balance sheet and thus ROE. We estimate a fair P/B of 1.61x and a fair value of Rmb10 for HTS-A and a fair value of HK$12.4 for HTS-H, using spot CNY:USD exchange rate of 6.3. Fair P/E valuation We also use P/E as an alternative valuation methodology. We use the same 11.1% COE assumption and normalized ROE of 13.6%. An additional assumption is the terminal payout ratio of 35%. We estimate a fair P/E of 15.5x and fair value of Rmb8.4 for HTS-A and HK$10.4 for HTS-H, lower than our base P/B valuation methodology. Table 6: HTS: Fair value calculation Rmb, unless stated otherwise Fair P/B calculation Normalized ROE Risk-free rate Equity risk premium Beta COE Terminal growth Fair P/B Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
13.6% 4.5% 6.0% 12 11.1% 7% 1.61
Fair value (P/B) DPS (restated) BVPS (restated) Terminal value FV Terminal value PV CNY:USD HKD:USD Fair value (Rmb) Fair value (HKD)
0.5 7.1 7.7 6.2 6.3 7.8 10.0 12.4
Fair value (P/E) Payout ratio Retained earnings growth Fair P/E EPS (restated) DPS (restated) Terminal value (PV) Fair value (PE method) (Rmb) Fair value (PE method) (HKD)
35.0% 9.6% 15.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 8.4 10.4
Table 7: HTS: Normalized ROE calculation Brokerage / AA xClient$ Underwriting / AA xClient$ Trust asset mgt / AA xClient$ Fund mgt / AA xClient$ Fund distribution / AA xClient$ Others / AA xClient$ Fees / AA xClient$ Other income / AA xClient$ TR / AA xClient$ Cost / AA xClient$ CIR Prov / avg inv Inv / Assets xClient$ avg OROA (rpt, xClient$) Non-op / AA xClients PBToA (xClient$) Effective tax rate MI charge / NPAT MI charge / AA xClient$ ROA (xClient$) AE / AAxClient$ ROE Normalized 5.0% 1.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 10% 6.5% 17% 7.6% 45% 0.00% 50% 9.2% 0.3% 9.5% 24.5% 5.5% 0.4% 6.8% 50% 13.6% FY06 49.4% 6.8% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 66% 44.0% 110% 51.0% 46% 83.89% 27% 36% -7.4% 29% 34.7% 5.3% 1.0% 17.5% 76% 23.6% FY07 24.0% 1.6% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 30% 18.4% 48% 15.8% 33% 6.66% 16% 31% 2.4% 33% 28.7% 1.9% 0.4% 23.4% 86% 27.1% FY08 9.7% 0.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 12% 4.8% 17% 7.9% 48% 0.57% 22% 9% 0.3% 9% 8.5% 2.5% 0.2% 8.0% 90% 8.8% FY09 12.9% 0.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 16% 4.4% 20% 8.7% 43% 0.02% 32% 12% 0.7% 12% 22.1% 2.4% 0.2% 9.6% 84% 11.1% FY10 8.8% 1.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 13% 4.5% 18% 8.9% 51% -0.02% 36% 9% 0.4% 9% 22.5% 4.7% 0.3% 7.0% 79% 8.4% FY11E 5.1% 1.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 9% 6.2% 16% 7.8% 50% 2.08% 41% 7% 0.3% 7% 23.7% 5.5% 0.3% 5.5% 75% 6.9% FY12E 3.9% 1.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 8% 5.5% 13% 6.7% 51% 0.00% 43% 7% 0.3% 7% 24.5% 5.5% 0.3% 5.1% 72% 6.8% FY13E 4.6% 1.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9% 5.2% 14% 7.0% 51% 0.00% 46% 7% 0.3% 7% 24.5% 5.5% 0.3% 5.2% 72% 6.9% FY14E 4.8% 1.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9% 5.7% 15% 7.3% 50% 0.00% 47% 7% 0.2% 8% 24.5% 5.5% 0.3% 5.6% 70% 7.7%
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
10
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Valuation sensitivity Our fair valuation for HTS is highly sensitive to our ROE assumptions and beta. If the normalized ROE changes from 13.6% to 13%, then our fair value would decline by 9%. If we assume a beta of 1.2, instead of 1.1, our fair value will be 13% lower than our base-case fair valuation. Table 8: HTS valuation sensitivity: Change in fair value due to change in ROE and beta Beta ROE 12.0% 13.0% 13.6% 14.0% 15.0% 0.9 7% 28% 41% 50% 71% 1.0 -11% 6% 17% 24% 42% 1.1 -24% -9% 0% 6% 21% 1.2 -34% -21% -13% -8% 6% 1.3 -42% -30% -23% -18% -6%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: We assume constant CIR.
Because HTS’ beta is higher than 1, the corresponding change in the risk free-rate and equity risk premium will have a magnified impact on the fair value. If the riskfree rate increases by 100bp to 5.5% and the equity risk premium drops by 100bp to 5%, our fair value will increase by 2%, based on our base-case beta of 1.1. Table 9: HTS valuation sensitivity: Change in fair value due to change in risk-free rate and equity risk premium Equity risk premium 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 2.5% -4200% 310% 95% 28% -5% 3.5% 356% 105% 32% -2% -23% Risk-free rate 4.5% 116% 37% 0% -21% -35% 5.5% 41% 2% -20% -34% -44% 6.5% 5% -18% -33% -43% -51%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: We assume constant CIR.
Our terminal growth assumption is relatively more sensitive: a 100bp decline in growth will have a 7% impact on our fair value. However, a 100bp increase in growth will have 12% impact. Table 10: HTS valuation sensitivity: Change in fair value due to change in COE and terminal growth rate Terminal growth 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 7% 18% 37% 74% 186% 11.0% -11% -6% 2% 16% 43% COE 11.1% -12% -7% 0% 12% 36% 12.0% -24% -21% -18% -13% -5% 13.0% -33% -33% -32% -30% -28%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: We assume constant CIR.
Consensus valuation Our earnings forecasts are 15%/14% below the Bloomberg consensus estimates for FY12/13. We think this is because we expect commission rate to fall to 5bp in FY12 from 6.5bp in FY11. While commission rate of 5bp could be too conservative, we 11
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
apply the same commission rate for CITICS, HTS, and GFS on the basis that brokerage industry remains competitive and commission rate should be similar. Consensus earnings for FY12E have been revised down by 3%/6% in the past 1/3 months. Overall, consensus has been revising down its earnings forecasts for most China securities companies over the past three months. We think this reflects the Ashare analysts becoming more bearish about the market. After accounting for consensus earnings downgrade, HTS-A’s 12-month rolling P/E expanded by 22% in the last 3 months. HTS-H share price rose by 2.5% absolute in the last 4 weeks. No consensus earnings for the H share have been published yet because it was only listed in Apr 2012. Other China brokers also experienced P/E expansion of 32% on average, with earnings downgrades of 14% and share price performance of 20% absolute. This reflects that investment sentiment has improved in the past 3 months, while consensus earnings are yet to change. Table 11: HTS Bloomberg consensus summary EPS EPS (sd) EPS (high) EPS (low) Net income Net income (sd) Net income (high) Net income (low) DPS DPS (sd) DPS (high) DPS (low) BVPS ROE ROA FY12E 0.65 0.11 0.84 0.40 7,104 1,184 9,218 4,439 0.27 0.09 0.50 0.15 8.37 7.8 4.20 y/y -43% -26% -65% -37% -19% -61% -45% 0% -70% 18% -55% -33% -1m -3.0% -4.5% 0.0% 0.0% -3.3% -2.6% 0.0% 0.0% -6.8% 2.4% 0.0% -16.7% 0.3% -3.9% -5.5% -3m -6.0% 11.6% 0.0% -28.6% -6.3% 14.1% 0.0% -27.4% -8.4% 0.0% 0.0% -34.8% 0.4% -8.2% -10.0% ytd -3.0% -4.5% 0.0% 0.0% -3.3% -2.6% 0.0% 0.0% -6.8% 2.4% 0.0% -16.7% 0.3% -3.9% -5.5% FY13E 0.83 0.14 1.03 0.54 9,125 1,618 11,413 6,057 0.33 0.08 0.50 0.16 8.91 9.7 4.74 y/y 28% 23% 35% 28% 24% 36% 22% 0% 7% 7% 24% 13% -1m -3.4% 7.6% 0.0% -18.2% -3.8% 9.8% 0.0% -16.5% -7.8% 26.6% 0.0% -44.8% 0.2% -3.7% -6.2% -3m -4.7% 5.2% 0.0% -20.6% -4.9% 8.8% 0.0% -18.8% -9.0% 15.7% 0.0% -44.8% 0.4% -6.2% -8.6% ytd -3.4% 7.6% 0.0% -18.2% -3.8% 9.9% 0.0% -16.5% -7.8% 26.6% 0.0% -44.8% 0.2% -3.7% -6.2% Est 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 16 15 15 15 15 15 14 10
Source: Bloomberg. Note: All estimates are Bloomberg consensus.
Table 12: China securities PE change 29-May-12 CITIC Sec-H Haitong Sec-H CITIC Sec-A Haitong Sec-A GF Sec-A CM Sec-A Huatai Sec-A EB Sec-A SW Sec-A Hong Yuan Sec-A CJ Sec-A SX Sec-A Guo Yuan Sec-A Sinolink Sec-A NE Sec-A Wgt avg - A 6030 HK 6837 HK 600030 CH 600837 CH 000776 CH 600999 CH 601688 CH 601788 CH 600369 CH 000562 CH 000783 CH 002500 CH 000728 CH 600109 CH 000686 CH 1m Price 12m PE Price chg 15.98 26.8 -1.2% 10.86 26.4 2.5% 13.74 21.4 5.7% 10.39 23.1 5.1% 32.11 30.8 6.9% 13.7 19.6 6.5% 11.37 23.9 8.7% 14.51 22.8 9.7% 12.49 33.7 26.2% 17.67 28.7 15.5% 10.18 25.1 6.5% 8.24 37.6 -0.5% 11.92 29.1 9.5% 15.44 41.3 12.9% 18.5 44.2 5.8% 24.7 7.6% Tot ret -1.2% 2.5% 5.7% 5.1% 6.9% 6.5% 8.7% 9.7% 26.2% 15.5% 6.5% -0.5% 9.5% 12.9% 5.8% 7.6% Profit grth Est chg 2.0% -3.4% 2.4% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.2% -3.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 1.5% -0.3% 1.7% 0.0% 1.9% -10.0% 1.9% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.7% -1.0% 3m PE chg Price chg 0.2% -7.0% 0.0% n.a. 3.6% 16.4% 7.9% 16.0% 5.1% 20.9% 5.5% 13.9% 6.8% 26.6% 8.4% 19.9% 24.0% 37.9% 25.9% 32.2% 4.5% 14.8% -2.0% 15.4% 7.4% 21.8% 10.4% 39.1% 2.8% 20.2% 7.0% 19.9% Tot ret -7.0% n.a. 16.4% 16.0% 20.9% 13.9% 26.6% 19.9% 37.9% 32.2% 14.8% 15.4% 22.8% 39.1% 20.2% 20.0% Profit grth Est chg 6.3% -13.6% 7.4% -4.1% 6.2% -6.3% 3.8% -8.7% 5.1% -9.4% 2.8% -9.6% 5.6% 5.7% 4.7% -14.3% 5.3% -19.6% 5.9% -30.8% 5.8% -50.1% 4.7% 2.1% 6.0% -35.7% 6.7% -55.0% 9.2% -1.3% 5.0% -13.5% PE chg 1.3% n.a. 17.1% 22.4% 27.0% 22.5% 13.5% 33.7% 62.8% 80.4% 117.4% 8.0% 78.6% 189.3% 11.5% 32.0%
Source: Bloomberg. Note: All estimates are Bloomberg consensus.
12
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Performance drivers A-share market cycles The A-share market cycle drives the share price performance of HTS. This reflects a beta higher than defensive industries but lower than peers such as CITICS. A relationship between market cycle and earnings also exists, but is weaker than the relationship between market cycle and share price performance. This is in line with our analysis that there are factors affecting earnings other than market cycle. HTS-A is primarily driven by market cycle, in our view. Figure 19: HTS: Relative share price performance (since listing) Indexed
Figure 20: HTS: Market rally and earnings Rmb in millions for fee income and attributable profit Fees income 10,000 Attributable profit 200% CSI300 y/y (RHS) 150% 8,000
120 100 80 60 40 20 Feb-08 May-08
HTS-A (total return) SHCOMP
CSI300
6,000 4,000 2,000 Feb-09 May-09 Feb-10 May-10 Feb-11 May-11 Nov-07 Aug-08 Nov-08 Aug-09 Nov-09 Aug-10 Nov-10 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12
100% 50% 0% -50% -100% FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
0
0 Source: Bloomberg and company reports.
Source: Bloomberg.
Equity raising and recent transactions New issues and placements will increase the share base of A-share market and will generate transaction fees for HTS’ underwriting business. In 2010, when the CSI300 index was flat for most of the year, equity raising continued. This is reflected in the higher underwriting fees of HTS (+141% y/y, weaker commission from IPO partially offset by better market share). However, overall fee income growth remained negative, as secondary trading brokerage fees declined even after accounting for more shares listed due to continued equity raising, and the fall in brokerage income (Rmb1.4 billion) was larger than the increase in underwriting fees (Rmb0.5 billion). Therefore, equity raising, which amounted to 4% of the average market cap, is sufficient to lift the underwriting fees, but not the brokerage fees or overall fee income. In terms of share price, HTS-A underperformed in 2010 when its share base continued to expand. Including IPO and secondary placement, the CSI300 index’s share base expanded by 7% in 2010. HTS-A share price did not outperform in 2011 also, when CSI300 share base rose by 13%.
13
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Figure 21: HTS: Relative share price performance Index
Figure 22: HTS: Equity raising and underwriting fees Rmb in millions for underwriting fees
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Nov-07 Source: Bloomberg.
HTS-A / CSI300 index CSI300 mkt cap / index (RHS)
6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000
1,000 800 600 400 200 0 FY06 FY07
Underwriting fees Equity raising
5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
Source: Company reports and CEIC. Note: Equity raising is expressed as % of average market cap.
Table 13: HTS upcoming and recent underwriting transactions Name Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co Ltd Ningbo Hualong Electronics Co Ltd Shanghai Beite Metal Works Co Ltd JDM JingDa Machine Ningbo Co Ltd Shanghai Zhongji Pile Industry Co Ltd Ciming Health Checkup Management Group Co Ltd Hainan Shuangcheng Pharmaceuticals Co Ltd Shanghai New Culture Media Group Co Ltd Epoxy Base Electronic Material Corp Ltd Anshan Heavy Duty Mining Machinery Co Ltd Xinzhi Motor Co Ltd Nantong Metalforming Equipment Co Ltd Hubei Huachangda Intelligent Equipment Co Ltd Zhejiang Daoming Optics&Chemical Co Ltd Hubei SanFeng Intelligent Conveying Equipment Co Ltd Zhejiang Haers Vacuum Containers Co Ltd Henan Suntront Technology Co Ltd Shanghai Yaoji Playing Card Co Ltd Zhejiang Kaier New Materials Co Ltd Fujian Minfa Aluminum Co Ltd Beijing SPC Environmental Protection Tech Co Ltd Beijing Comens New Materials Co Ltd Shanghai Xujiahui Commercial Co Ltd Sanjiang Shopping Club Co Ltd China Zhonghua Geotechnical Engineering Co Ltd Shanghai Cooltech Power Co Ltd Hunan Tangel Publishing Co Ltd Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane Co Ltd Zhejiang Jingu Co Ltd Qinhuangdao Tianye Tolian Heavy Industry Co Ltd Zhejiang Runtu Co Ltd Kaiser China Holding Co Ltd Zhongyuan Special Steel Co Ltd Hainan Honz Pharmaceutical Co Ltd Beijing Highlander Digital Technology Co Ltd Huatai Securities Co Ltd Integrated Electronic Systems Lab Co Ltd Hubei Huitian Adhesive Enterprise Co Ltd China Zhongsheng Resources Holdings Ltd Winox Holdings Ltd Source: Bloomberg.
Ticker n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 603002 CH Equity 002667 CH Equity 002664 CH Equity 300280 CH Equity 300278 CH Equity 002632 CH Equity 300276 CH Equity 002615 CH Equity 300259 CH Equity 002605 CH Equity 300234 CH Equity 002578 CH Equity 002573 CH Equity 300200 CH Equity 002561 CH Equity 601116 CH Equity 002542 CH Equity 300153 CH Equity 300148 CH Equity 002523 CH Equity 002488 CH Equity 002459 CH Equity 002440 CH Equity 002425 CH Equity 002423 CH Equity 300086 CH Equity 300065 CH Equity 601688 CH Equity 002339 CH Equity 300041 CH Equity 2623 HK Equity 6838 HK Equity
Trading Date n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. May-12 Mar-12 Mar-12 Dec-11 Dec-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Aug-11 Jun-11 Apr-11 Apr-11 Apr-11 Mar-11 Mar-11 Jan-11 Dec-10 Dec-10 Dec-10 Oct-10 Aug-10 Jul-10 Jun-10 Jun-10 May-10 Mar-10 Feb-10 Jan-10 Jan-10 Apr-12 Jul-11
Amount (US$ mn) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 57 67 85 55 57 97 60 64 65 77 37 100 261 89 171 108 94 120 62 117 99 142 339 87 104 220 67 2298 81 91 21 30
14

Defensive quality in a cyclical industry

发布机构:摩根大通
报告类型:外行报告 发布日期:2012/5/31
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内容简介

Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
6837.HK, 6837 HK
Haitong Securities Defensive quality in a cyclical industry
Overweight Price: HK$10.60
Price Target: HK$12.50 600837.SS, 600837 CH Neutral Price: Rmb10.46
Price Target: Rmb10.00
We initiate on Haitong Securities (HTS) with an OW rating on the H share and a Neutral rating on the A share. Price targets (Dec-12) are HK$12.5 (H share) and Rmb10 (A share). HTS is the second-largest listed securities firm in China, with 4% brokerage market share. Its defensive qualities explain its survival throughout market cycles, but this does not change the cyclical nature of its share price. Among China brokers, we prefer HTS on the back of its cheaper valuation for its defensive nature in times of market volatility. ? Defensive qualities; cyclical industry: HTS’s defensive qualities are (1) strong cost discipline, (2) conservative investment strategy, and (3) low financial leverage. However, 88% of fee income is market-related (55% brokerage, 15% underwriting, 18% asset mgmt). Conservative management helped HTS to survive market cycles but does not materially change its cyclical share price performance. ? Catalysts and risks: Catalysts include (1) Haitong Futures to drive derivative market share, (2) margin financing to drive interest income, and (3) early mover in overseas expansion for better cross-border synergy opportunities. Risks are (1) smaller balance sheet could drag on underwriting business, and (2) conservative leverage could cap ROE rerating potential. ? Valuation: Our PT is based on P/B. We estimate a fair P/B of 1.6x for both HTS-A and H. Our PT of Rmb10 for HTS-A and HK$12.5 for HTS-H implies 26x EPS (FY12E). HTS-H is trading at a 15% discount to HTS-A and 12% discount to CITICS-H. We prefer HTS-H in the sector because of its cheaper valuation and more defensive fundamentals. Haitong Securities - H (Reuters: 6837.HK, Bloomberg: 6837 HK) Year-end Dec (Rmb in mn) FY10A FY11A FY12E Operating Profit (Rmb mn) 4,755 4,095 4,786 Net Profit (Rmb mn) 3,686 3,103 3,571 Cash EPS (Rmb) 0.448 0.377 0.391 EPS (Rmb) 0.45 0.38 0.39 DPS (Rmb) 0.15 0.15 0.16 EPS Growth -19.0% -15.8% 3.7% ROE 8.4% 6.9% 6.8% P/E 19.3 22.9 22.1 BVPS (Rmb) 5.40 5.47 6.25 P/BV 1.6 1.6 1.4 Div. Yield 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
China Banks & Finance Joseph Leung AC
(852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Josh Klaczek (852) 2800-8534 josh.klaczek@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
FY13E 5,744 4,261 0.445 0.44 0.15 13.7% 6.9% 19.4 6.65 1.3 1.7%
FY14E 6,901 5,093 0.532 0.53 0.15 19.6% 7.7% 16.2 7.15 1.2 1.7%
Company Data 52-wk range (HK$) Market cap (Rmb mn) Market cap ($ mn) Shares outstanding (mn) Fiscal Year End Price (HK$) Date Of Price Avg daily value (HK$ mn) Avg daily value ($ mn) Avg daily vol (mn) HSI Exchange Rate Rating
11.70 - 10.12 11,670 1,845 1,493 Dec 10.60 30 May 12 55.2 7.1 40.0 19,055 7.77 Price Target Cur Prev 12.50 10.00
Equity Ratings and Price Targets Company Haitong Securities - H Haitong Securities - A Symbol 6837.HK 600837.SS Mkt Cap ($ mn) 1,845.01 13,606.37 Price CCY HKD CNY Price 10.60 10.46 Cur OW N Prev NC NC
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P.Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 30 May 12.
See page 38 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.morganmarkets.com
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Company Data 52-wk range (Rmb) Market cap (Rmb mn) Market cap ($ mn) Shares outstanding (mn) Fiscal Year End Price (Rmb) Date Of Price Avg daily value (Rmb mn) Avg daily value ($ mn) Avg daily vol (mn) SSEA Exchange Rate
10.55 - 7.05 86,063 13,606 8,092 Dec 10.46 30 May 12 94.6 15.0 67.6 2,503 6.33
Haitong Securities - A (Reuters: 600837.SS, Bloomberg: 600837 CH) Year-end Dec (Rmb in mn) FY10A FY11A FY12E FY13E Operating Profit (Rmb mn) 4,755 4,095 4,786 5,744 Net Profit (Rmb mn) 3,686 3,103 3,571 4,261 Cash EPS (Rmb) 0.448 0.377 0.391 0.445 EPS (Rmb) 0.45 0.38 0.39 0.44 DPS (Rmb) 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.15 EPS Growth -19.0% -15.8% 3.7% 13.7% ROE 8.4% 6.9% 6.8% 6.9% P/E 23.3 27.7 26.7 23.5 BVPS (Rmb) 5.40 5.47 6.25 6.65 P/BV 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 Div. Yield 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
FY14E 6,901 5,093 0.532 0.53 0.15 19.6% 7.7% 19.7 7.15 1.5 1.4%
Company Description Headquartered in Shanghai, Haitong Securities is the second largest securities firm in China in terms of total assets and net assets as of Dec 31, 2011. Leveraging on its integrated business platform and an extensive network of 216 brokerage branches, Haitong engages in securities and futures brokerage, investment banking, asset management, proprietary trading and direct investment. Seven of the 10 largest shareholders are controlled by Shanghai SASAC and these shareholders hold a total shareholding of roughly 26.5%.
P&L sensitivity metrics FY12E CSI300 y/y 20% for every 10%pt A-share velocity 180% for every 40%pt IPO y/y 40% for every 20%pt Brokerage market share 4.2% for every 0.5%pt Brokerage comm rate 0.05% for every 0.01%pt Lead IPO market share 5% for every 2%pt Lead IPO comm rate 3% for every 1%pt
Operating profit impact (%) 1.7% 5.0% 1.8% 3.1% 6.8% 3.3% 2.9%
EPS impact (%) 1.7% 5.0% 1.8% 3.1% 6.9% 3.3% 3.0% -1.2%
CIR 51% for every 1%pt -1.2% Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: CIR constant for non-CIR sensitivity.
Price target and valuation analysis Brokerage / AA xClient$ 5.0% 1.5% 10.3% 16.8% 45.0% 9.5% 6.8% Risk-free rate Equity risk premium Beta COE Terminal growth Fair P/B Fair value (Rmb) Fair value (HKD) Fair P/E FY1 EPS (Rmb) FY1 DPS (Rmb) Fair value (PE method) (Rmb) Fair value (PE method) (HKD) CNY:USD 4.5% 6.0% 1.1 11.1% 7.0% 1.61 10.0 12.4 15.5 0.4 0.2 8.4 10.4 6.3
Earnings mix chart (FY11) Other segment 20% Securities underwriting 13% Prop trading 12% Source: Company reports.
Underwriting / AA xClient$ Fees / AA xClient$ TR / AA xClient$ CIR
Brokerage 45%
PBToA (xClient$) ROA (xClient$)
Asset mgt 10%
ROE 13.6% Our price target is based upon DDM methodology. We use a fair P/B based multiple of 1.6x, with a normalised ROE of 13.6%. Our HK$ price target is based on CNY:USD of 6.3.
EPS: J.P. Morgan vs consensus FY12E FY13E FY14E J. P. Morgan 0.39 0.44 0.53 Consensus 0.46 0.51 0.61
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Our PT (Dec-12, DDM-derived) of Rmb13 and HK$16 implies a P/BV of 1.6x and P/E of 25.5x (FY12E). Key upside risk to PT is better market share gain from underwriting, and downside risk is execution risk from deploying excess capital. Swing factors are market turnover, market share and commission rate. Industry risks are policy change to encourage banks to participate in investment banking, or if the market pre-maturely opens to foreign investment banks
Table 1: Peer valuation 30-May-12 CITIC Sec-H CITIC Sec-A Haitong-H Haitong-A GF Sec-A CM Sec-A Huatai Sec-A Ticker 6030 HK 600030 CH 6837 HK 600837 CH 000776 CH 600999 CH 601688 CH Price Mkt Cap Rating (LC) (US$m) 15.7 23,774 N 13.82 23,774 N 10.6 15,354 OW 10.46 15,354 N 32.13 14,960 N 13.71 10,053 NR 11.44 10,079 NR PE 12E 25.1 27.0 22.2 26.7 45.2 19.9 23.3 13E 19.2 20.7 19.5 23.5 34.2 18.4 19.6 PB 12E 1.60 1.72 1.39 1.67 2.89 2.36 1.83 13E 1.51 1.62 1.31 1.57 2.75 2.15 1.74 Div yld 12E 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.6 1.3 13E 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.9 1.3 ROE 12E 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.5 11.9 6.6 13E 8.1 8.1 6.9 6.9 8.2 12.6 8.1 Tot return -1m -1% 3% 0% 1% 7% 7% 9% -3m -5% 24% n.a. 21% 17% 13% 24% ytd 23% 42% n.a. 41% 53% 35% 46%
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: Bloomberg consensus for non-rated companies.
2
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Table of Contents Investment thesis ........................3 Historical valuation .....................7 Valuation .......................................9 Performance drivers..................13 Earnings sensitivity...................16 Historical performance .............18 Segmental analysis ...................19 Financial analysis ......................24 Company background ..............29
Investment thesis Defensive quality vs. cyclical industry Brokerage business nature is cyclical, and Haitong Securities (HTS) is no exception. Beta of 1.2 (Bloomberg adjusted) reflects market index is the major driver of the share price. Brokerage is 55% of fees, with another 15% from underwriting and 18% from asset management (FY11). All three major sources of income are closely correlated with market conditions. However, relative to peers, HTS displays defensive qualities: (1) Strong cost discipline, (2) conservative investment strategy, and (3) low financial leverage. This helped HTS to survive in this cyclical industry throughout the crisis. However, this does not protect share price from downside risk in bear markets. In 2008 when CSI300 dropped by 66%, HTS-A also fell by 70%. Figure 1: Fees breakdown, FY11 Others 12%
Figure 2: HTS: Relative price performance 150% HTS-A CSI300 100% 50%
Trust asset mgt 18% Earnings sensitivity ? ? ? ? ? ? 0.5%pt brokerage market share = 3% EPS 10bp brokerage commission rate = 7% EPS 10%pt CSI300 = 2% EPS 40%pt velocity = 5% EPS 2%pt IPO market share = 3% EPS 100bp IPO commission rate = 3% EPS
Brokerage 55% Securities underwriting 15% Source: Company reports.
0% -50% -100% 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Bloomberg.
Performance drivers Stock market drives absolute share price performance of HTS. Velocity, IPO, and regulation changes drive sector performance relative to the index, but not HTS performance relative to peers. Market share and commission rate are the only two factors that drive the performance relative to peers. Absolute performance drivers ? A market rally is the largest absolute share price performance driver. The trading history of HTS-A is closely related to CSI300. High beta also reflects higher share price volatility than CSI300. ? A market rally is likely to result in larger market values and thus higher turnover value, assuming that velocity stays constant. Drivers of its performance relative to the index ? Velocity: Relative to Hong Kong, China’s stock market velocity is high, volatile, and less related to share price volatility. Since October 1998, the mean velocity is 147%, with a standard deviation of 88%. Both the mean and standard deviation of velocity are higher than Hong Kong’s mean of 75% and standard deviation of 31%. We assume a velocity of 235% in FY13-14E, 1sd above the historical average. ? IPO and lock-up expiry: HTS completed 3 IPOs in 2012 and there are another 8 in the pipeline. We assume total IPO volume will grow +40% Y/Y in FY12E, after declining by 43% in FY11. Also, 8% of the current A-share market capitalization will have lock-up expiry, with 70% expiring in 2H12. Higher floats will likely to increase turnover. 3
Figure 3: China velocity and share price volatility 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 0.00% velocity 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% CSI300 return 1998-2006 2007 onwards
Source: CEIC.
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Table 2: HTS upcoming and recent underwriting transactions Name Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co Ltd Ningbo Hualong Electronics Co Ltd Shanghai Beite Metal Works Co Ltd JDM JingDa Machine Ningbo Co Ltd Shanghai Zhongji Pile Industry Co Ltd Ciming Health Checkup Management Group Co Ltd Hainan Shuangcheng Pharmaceuticals Co Ltd Shanghai New Culture Media Group Co Ltd Epoxy Base Electronic Material Corp Ltd Anshan Heavy Duty Mining Machinery Co Ltd Xinzhi Motor Co Ltd Source: Bloomberg.
Ticker n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 603002 CH Equity 002667 CH Equity 002664 CH Equity
Trading Date n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. May-12 Mar-12 Mar-12
Amount (US$ mn) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 57 67 85
Figure 4: HTS: Equity raising and underwriting fees (Rmb mn) 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Underwriting fees Equity raising 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
Figure 5: China lock-up expiries as % of market cap (2012) 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Oct-12 Nov-12 May-12 Dec-12 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12
Source: Company reports, CEIC. Note: Equity raising is expressed as % of avg mkt cap.
Source: WIND. Note: As % of current market capitalization (SHSZ)
Upside potential (relative performance) Continuous new share issues and higher free-float as lock-up periods expire New product development Regulation promote consolidation Downside potential (relative performance) Regulation allows competition Swing factors Trading velocity Market share changes Commission rate movements
Drivers of performance relative to peers ? Brokerage market share has been steady at 4% or above. With an expanding branch network, we think market share should stay h above 4%. Bond market share was higher than equity, but commission rate was much lower. ? Brokerage commission rate: Cash equity market competition is keen. Brokerage commission rate of HTS continued to fall since 2009. We expect the industry to remain fragmented and competitive, and thus we think commission rate is unlikely to recover. ? Underwriting market share fluctuated between 2% and 5%. Because of a smaller balance sheet, HTS has been focused on SME segment. Given the smaller size of SME transactions, we expect market share of underwriting is unlikely to sustainably increase. ? Underwriting commission rate was volatile because of changing transaction mix. Some SME transactions offer attractive commission rate. Average commission rate was 2.8% in FY06-10, and we assume 3% for FY12-14.
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Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Figure 6: HTS brokerage commission rate 0.14% 0.12% 0.10% 0.08% 0.06% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% FY06 Source: Company reports.
Figure 7: HTS market share of brokerage business 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Comm rate 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% bond fund equity derivatives
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
Source: Company reports and CEIC
Figure 8: HTS underwriting commission rate (lead) 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% FY06 Source: Company reports.
Figure 9: HTS market share of underwriting business (lead) 8% IPO 7% 6% 5% 4% Place (new) 3% 2% 1% 0% FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Source: Company reports and CEIC
IPO Total Non-IPO
Place (sec)Bond FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
Investment catalysts Margin financing of HTS achieved number 1 market share in FY11. This has driven +53% in net interest income in FY11. We expect continuous development of margin financing could provide a stable source of income for HTS, while at the same time risk management is under control. The key to a critical mass is a stable relationship with banks, in our view. International platform: After acquisition of Taifook Securities in 2009, Haitong is one of the largest retail brokerages in Hong Kong. Together with HFT Investment Management, HTS is an early mover in overseas expansion. We expect HTS could realize potential cross-border synergy opportunities, including underwriting more Hshare listings and cross-border investment products, such as RQFII, ETF and QDII.
Investment risks Conservative leverage: HTS has deliberately managed down its financial leverage. While this has helped HTS to survive volatile equity market cycles, low financial leverage could cap ROE upside potential. To continuously implement conservative financial leverage and at the same time uplift its ROE to a higher level will require a strong partner, which HTS has yet to find, in our view.
5
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Small balance sheet: HTS has a relatively smaller balance sheet. This has pushed HTS to focus on SME underwriting. While SME underwriting could occasionally offer a higher commission rate, entry barrier is lower as it requires less capital strength. We expect competition to erode underwriting commission rate of HTS in medium term.
Earnings, share price, and valuation Table 3: HTS key assumptions of earnings CSI300 y/y A-share velocity IPO y/y Brokerage market share Brokerage comm rate Lead IPO market share Lead IPO comm rate CIR Attributable profit FY10 -13% 226% 165% 4.08% 0.090% 5% 2.2% 51% 3,686 FY11 -25% 162% -43% 4.12% 0.054% 3% 7.1% 50% 3,103 FY12E 20% 180% 40% 4.18% 0.050% 5% 3.0% 51% 3,571 FY13E 20% 235% 15% 4.18% 0.050% 5% 3.0% 51% 4,261 FY14E 15% 235% 10% 4.18% 0.050% 5% 3.0% 50% 5,093
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Figure 10: HTS: Relative share price performance (since listing) Indexed
Figure 11: HTS-A: One-year forward P/E band Rmb
120 100 80 60 40 20 Feb-08 May-08
HTS-A (total return) SHCOMP
CSI300
Feb-09
May-09
Feb-10
May-10
Feb-11
May-11
Nov-07
Aug-08
Nov-08
Aug-09
Nov-09
Aug-10
Nov-10
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
Source: Bloomberg.
Source: Bloomberg.
6
Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12
0
50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
59x 45x 31x 18x 4x
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Quarterly highlights 1Q12 net profit was +180% q/q and -11% y/y because of absence of investment write-downs. 1Q12 net profit was 29% of our FY12 estimate. EPS was Rmb0.13, 180% q/q and similar to 1Q-2Q11 level. ROE was 9.2%, annualized. Brokerage fees were encouraging, +25%. Brokerage fees per trading day also rose by 15% q/q. Client money rose marginally by 4%. Underwriting fees rebounded by 123% q/q from trough in 4Q11. Total fees grew by 16% h/h and non-fees revenue has been largely flat q/q. Cost fell by 9% y/y, which is tracking better than our expectations. Outlook for 2Q12 remains solid, with average daily turnover continues to recover to Rmb164 billion, +7% q/q. IPO pipeline remains strong, but the actual listing would be a function of market appetite. Table 4: HTS: Quarterly highlights Rmb in millions Income statement Brokerage fees net income Securities underwriting fees net income Fees and commissions income Total revenue Total cost Asset provision charge Operating profit (reported) Pretax profit Attributable profit Balance sheet Investments Total assets ex client money Client money Total assets Shareholders' funds Per share data Shares (period end, FD, restated) EPS (restated) BVPS (restated) Ratios Brokerage fees / trading days Brokerage / fees Fees / AA xClient$ Fees / AE TR / AA xClient$ CIR PBToA (xClient$) ROA (xClient$) ROE AE / AAxClient$ Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
1Q11 1,031 266 1,634 2,651 1,075 0 1,575 1,608 1,185 1Q11 22,180 64,398 47,351 111,749 45,796 1Q11 8,228 0.14 5.57 1Q11 18 63% 11.0% 14.5% 18% 41% 0.0% 8.6% 10.5% 76%
2Q11 808 270 1,512 2,562 1,121 -1 1,442 1,455 1,050 2Q11 23,977 62,711 43,257 105,968 45,153 2Q11 8,228 0.13 5.49 2Q11 13 53% 9.5% 13.3% 16% 44% 0.0% 7.1% 9.2% 72%
3Q11 708 202 1,350 1,686 1,010 44 633 667 494 3Q11 27,152 65,243 35,624 100,867 44,802 3Q11 8,228 0.06 5.45 3Q11 11 52% 8.4% 12.0% 11% 60% 0.0% 3.3% 4.4% 70%
4Q11 494 100 1,026 2,321 1,412 465 444 570 374 4Q11 27,694 64,062 34,815 98,876 45,042 4Q11 8,228 0.05 5.47 4Q11 8 48% 6.3% 9.1% 14% 61% 0.0% 2.4% 3.3% 69%
1Q12 616 224 1,189 2,413 976 20 1,417 1,433 1,049 1Q12 27,900 72,038 36,199 108,237 46,283 1Q12 8,228 0.13 5.63 1Q12 9 52% 7.0% 10.4% 14% 40% 0.0% 6.5% 9.2% 67%
q/q 25% 123% 16% 4% -31% -96% 219% 151% 180% q/q 1% 12% 4% 9% 3% q/q 0% 180% 3% q/q 15% 4% 1% 1% 0% -20% 0% 4% 6% -2%
y/y -40% -16% -27% -9% -9% 28163% -10% -11% -11% y/y 26% 12% -24% -3% 1% y/y 0% -11% 1% y/y -47% -11% -4% -4% -4% 0% 0% -2% -1% -9%
as % of 12E 21% 26% 21% 25% 20% n.a. 30% 29% 29% as % of 12E 78% 88% 104% 93% 77% as % of 12E 86% 33% 90% as % of 12E 80%
7
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Historical valuation Table 5: HTS-A: Valuation summary (since Dec 2006) 12m FY11 FY12 FY13 Avg SD SD fr Avg Source: Bloomberg.
Figure 12: HTS: Relative share price performance (since listing) Div Yld na 1.4% na na 1.0% 0.5% na Indexed
P/B 1.73 1.90 1.79 1.62 2.93 1.46 -0.8
P/E 20.9 27.3 21.8 19.2 31.4 13.7 -0.8
120 100 80 60 40 20 Feb-08 May-08
HTS-A (total return) SHCOMP
CSI300
Feb-09
May-09
Feb-10
May-10
Feb-11
May-11
Nov-07
Aug-08
Nov-08
Aug-09
Nov-09
Aug-10
Nov-10
Aug-11
Source: Bloomberg.
Figure 13: HTS-A: One-year forward P/B band Rmb
Figure 14: HTS-A: One-year forward P/B band x
Jan-07 May-07
Jan-08
Sep-08 Jan-09
Jan-10 May-10
Jan-11
Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12
May-08
May-09
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Figure 15: HTS-A: One-year forward P/E band Rmb
Figure 16: HTS-A: One-year forward P/E band x
Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12
Jan-07 May-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08 Jan-09
May-09
Jan-10 May-10
Jan-11
May-11
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
8
Sep-11 Jan-12
50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
59x 45x 31x 18x 4x
80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0
May-11
Sep-11 Jan-12 +2sd +1sd Avg -1sd -2sd
40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
5.9x 4.4x 2.9x 1.5x 0.0x
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
Nov-11
+2sd +1sd Avg -1sd Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-10
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-10
Feb-12
0
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Valuation A share premium over H shares The HTS-H share price is trading at an 18% discount to HTS-A. Since listing, average A/H premium was 14%. Because of the short listing history, HTS A/H share premium may not be representative of potential for mean reversion. There are 71 dual-listed stocks, including CITICS and HTS, and excluding three stocks that were either suspended or pending listing. These H-share stocks, on average, are trading at a 7% discount to A-shares (market-cap weighted). Therefore, HTS-H share is trading at a discount wider than other dual listed stocks. Figure 17: HTS: Historical A-share premium over H-share 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 10-May-12 12-May-12 14-May-12 16-May-12 18-May-12
Figure 18: Market A-share premium over H-share 100% 80% avg 60% 40% 20% 0% A shares premium
0% 26-Apr-12 28-Apr-12 30-Apr-12 2-May-12 4-May-12 6-May-12 8-May-12
-20% -40% 0 Source: Bloomberg.
50
100
150
200
250
Mkt cap US$bn 300 350
Source: Bloomberg.
Fair valuation Fair P/B valuation Our base valuation methodology is P/B, because HTS earnings are based on transactions and flows, and the scale of its business is constrained by capital ratios regulated by the CSRC (China Securities Regulatory Commission). A change in capital regulation will affect the maximum leverage that HTS can take, and thus HTS’s market share as well as profitability. We use a risk-free rate of 4.5% and market risk premium of 6%, in line with other Chinese companies. We assume a terminal growth rate of 7%, 250bp higher than the risk-free rate to reflect potential growth driven by continuous financial innovation. Our terminal growth rate is also at the lower range of medium-term real GDP growth outlook. Against CSI300, HTS-A has a Bloomberg raw beta of 1.3 and an adjusted beta of 1.2, with two years of pricing data. We apply a beta of 1.1 in our valuation model, slightly lower than adjusted beta of HTS-A. Our cost-of-equity estimate is 11.1%. Our normalized ROE assumption is 13.6%, based on: (1) fees-to-assets ratio, excluding client money, of 10%; (2) other income, including investment income, to be 6.5% of the assets, excluding client money; (3) cost-to-income ratio of 45%; and (4) equity-to-assets ratio, excluding client money, of 50%.
9
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
We think that our normalized ROE assumption is relatively optimistic, compared with the FY14E ROE forecast of 7.7%, in which we have factored in 235% velocity (1sd above mean), a flat brokerage market share and commission rate. The main difference between the normalized ROE and FY14E ROE is higher leverage. We think latest margin financing business could allow HTS to leverage up its balance sheet and thus ROE. We estimate a fair P/B of 1.61x and a fair value of Rmb10 for HTS-A and a fair value of HK$12.4 for HTS-H, using spot CNY:USD exchange rate of 6.3. Fair P/E valuation We also use P/E as an alternative valuation methodology. We use the same 11.1% COE assumption and normalized ROE of 13.6%. An additional assumption is the terminal payout ratio of 35%. We estimate a fair P/E of 15.5x and fair value of Rmb8.4 for HTS-A and HK$10.4 for HTS-H, lower than our base P/B valuation methodology. Table 6: HTS: Fair value calculation Rmb, unless stated otherwise Fair P/B calculation Normalized ROE Risk-free rate Equity risk premium Beta COE Terminal growth Fair P/B Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
13.6% 4.5% 6.0% 12 11.1% 7% 1.61
Fair value (P/B) DPS (restated) BVPS (restated) Terminal value FV Terminal value PV CNY:USD HKD:USD Fair value (Rmb) Fair value (HKD)
0.5 7.1 7.7 6.2 6.3 7.8 10.0 12.4
Fair value (P/E) Payout ratio Retained earnings growth Fair P/E EPS (restated) DPS (restated) Terminal value (PV) Fair value (PE method) (Rmb) Fair value (PE method) (HKD)
35.0% 9.6% 15.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 8.4 10.4
Table 7: HTS: Normalized ROE calculation Brokerage / AA xClient$ Underwriting / AA xClient$ Trust asset mgt / AA xClient$ Fund mgt / AA xClient$ Fund distribution / AA xClient$ Others / AA xClient$ Fees / AA xClient$ Other income / AA xClient$ TR / AA xClient$ Cost / AA xClient$ CIR Prov / avg inv Inv / Assets xClient$ avg OROA (rpt, xClient$) Non-op / AA xClients PBToA (xClient$) Effective tax rate MI charge / NPAT MI charge / AA xClient$ ROA (xClient$) AE / AAxClient$ ROE Normalized 5.0% 1.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 10% 6.5% 17% 7.6% 45% 0.00% 50% 9.2% 0.3% 9.5% 24.5% 5.5% 0.4% 6.8% 50% 13.6% FY06 49.4% 6.8% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 66% 44.0% 110% 51.0% 46% 83.89% 27% 36% -7.4% 29% 34.7% 5.3% 1.0% 17.5% 76% 23.6% FY07 24.0% 1.6% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 30% 18.4% 48% 15.8% 33% 6.66% 16% 31% 2.4% 33% 28.7% 1.9% 0.4% 23.4% 86% 27.1% FY08 9.7% 0.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 12% 4.8% 17% 7.9% 48% 0.57% 22% 9% 0.3% 9% 8.5% 2.5% 0.2% 8.0% 90% 8.8% FY09 12.9% 0.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 16% 4.4% 20% 8.7% 43% 0.02% 32% 12% 0.7% 12% 22.1% 2.4% 0.2% 9.6% 84% 11.1% FY10 8.8% 1.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 13% 4.5% 18% 8.9% 51% -0.02% 36% 9% 0.4% 9% 22.5% 4.7% 0.3% 7.0% 79% 8.4% FY11E 5.1% 1.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 9% 6.2% 16% 7.8% 50% 2.08% 41% 7% 0.3% 7% 23.7% 5.5% 0.3% 5.5% 75% 6.9% FY12E 3.9% 1.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 8% 5.5% 13% 6.7% 51% 0.00% 43% 7% 0.3% 7% 24.5% 5.5% 0.3% 5.1% 72% 6.8% FY13E 4.6% 1.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9% 5.2% 14% 7.0% 51% 0.00% 46% 7% 0.3% 7% 24.5% 5.5% 0.3% 5.2% 72% 6.9% FY14E 4.8% 1.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9% 5.7% 15% 7.3% 50% 0.00% 47% 7% 0.2% 8% 24.5% 5.5% 0.3% 5.6% 70% 7.7%
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
10
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Valuation sensitivity Our fair valuation for HTS is highly sensitive to our ROE assumptions and beta. If the normalized ROE changes from 13.6% to 13%, then our fair value would decline by 9%. If we assume a beta of 1.2, instead of 1.1, our fair value will be 13% lower than our base-case fair valuation. Table 8: HTS valuation sensitivity: Change in fair value due to change in ROE and beta Beta ROE 12.0% 13.0% 13.6% 14.0% 15.0% 0.9 7% 28% 41% 50% 71% 1.0 -11% 6% 17% 24% 42% 1.1 -24% -9% 0% 6% 21% 1.2 -34% -21% -13% -8% 6% 1.3 -42% -30% -23% -18% -6%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: We assume constant CIR.
Because HTS’ beta is higher than 1, the corresponding change in the risk free-rate and equity risk premium will have a magnified impact on the fair value. If the riskfree rate increases by 100bp to 5.5% and the equity risk premium drops by 100bp to 5%, our fair value will increase by 2%, based on our base-case beta of 1.1. Table 9: HTS valuation sensitivity: Change in fair value due to change in risk-free rate and equity risk premium Equity risk premium 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 2.5% -4200% 310% 95% 28% -5% 3.5% 356% 105% 32% -2% -23% Risk-free rate 4.5% 116% 37% 0% -21% -35% 5.5% 41% 2% -20% -34% -44% 6.5% 5% -18% -33% -43% -51%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: We assume constant CIR.
Our terminal growth assumption is relatively more sensitive: a 100bp decline in growth will have a 7% impact on our fair value. However, a 100bp increase in growth will have 12% impact. Table 10: HTS valuation sensitivity: Change in fair value due to change in COE and terminal growth rate Terminal growth 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 7% 18% 37% 74% 186% 11.0% -11% -6% 2% 16% 43% COE 11.1% -12% -7% 0% 12% 36% 12.0% -24% -21% -18% -13% -5% 13.0% -33% -33% -32% -30% -28%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: We assume constant CIR.
Consensus valuation Our earnings forecasts are 15%/14% below the Bloomberg consensus estimates for FY12/13. We think this is because we expect commission rate to fall to 5bp in FY12 from 6.5bp in FY11. While commission rate of 5bp could be too conservative, we 11
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
apply the same commission rate for CITICS, HTS, and GFS on the basis that brokerage industry remains competitive and commission rate should be similar. Consensus earnings for FY12E have been revised down by 3%/6% in the past 1/3 months. Overall, consensus has been revising down its earnings forecasts for most China securities companies over the past three months. We think this reflects the Ashare analysts becoming more bearish about the market. After accounting for consensus earnings downgrade, HTS-A’s 12-month rolling P/E expanded by 22% in the last 3 months. HTS-H share price rose by 2.5% absolute in the last 4 weeks. No consensus earnings for the H share have been published yet because it was only listed in Apr 2012. Other China brokers also experienced P/E expansion of 32% on average, with earnings downgrades of 14% and share price performance of 20% absolute. This reflects that investment sentiment has improved in the past 3 months, while consensus earnings are yet to change. Table 11: HTS Bloomberg consensus summary EPS EPS (sd) EPS (high) EPS (low) Net income Net income (sd) Net income (high) Net income (low) DPS DPS (sd) DPS (high) DPS (low) BVPS ROE ROA FY12E 0.65 0.11 0.84 0.40 7,104 1,184 9,218 4,439 0.27 0.09 0.50 0.15 8.37 7.8 4.20 y/y -43% -26% -65% -37% -19% -61% -45% 0% -70% 18% -55% -33% -1m -3.0% -4.5% 0.0% 0.0% -3.3% -2.6% 0.0% 0.0% -6.8% 2.4% 0.0% -16.7% 0.3% -3.9% -5.5% -3m -6.0% 11.6% 0.0% -28.6% -6.3% 14.1% 0.0% -27.4% -8.4% 0.0% 0.0% -34.8% 0.4% -8.2% -10.0% ytd -3.0% -4.5% 0.0% 0.0% -3.3% -2.6% 0.0% 0.0% -6.8% 2.4% 0.0% -16.7% 0.3% -3.9% -5.5% FY13E 0.83 0.14 1.03 0.54 9,125 1,618 11,413 6,057 0.33 0.08 0.50 0.16 8.91 9.7 4.74 y/y 28% 23% 35% 28% 24% 36% 22% 0% 7% 7% 24% 13% -1m -3.4% 7.6% 0.0% -18.2% -3.8% 9.8% 0.0% -16.5% -7.8% 26.6% 0.0% -44.8% 0.2% -3.7% -6.2% -3m -4.7% 5.2% 0.0% -20.6% -4.9% 8.8% 0.0% -18.8% -9.0% 15.7% 0.0% -44.8% 0.4% -6.2% -8.6% ytd -3.4% 7.6% 0.0% -18.2% -3.8% 9.9% 0.0% -16.5% -7.8% 26.6% 0.0% -44.8% 0.2% -3.7% -6.2% Est 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 16 15 15 15 15 15 14 10
Source: Bloomberg. Note: All estimates are Bloomberg consensus.
Table 12: China securities PE change 29-May-12 CITIC Sec-H Haitong Sec-H CITIC Sec-A Haitong Sec-A GF Sec-A CM Sec-A Huatai Sec-A EB Sec-A SW Sec-A Hong Yuan Sec-A CJ Sec-A SX Sec-A Guo Yuan Sec-A Sinolink Sec-A NE Sec-A Wgt avg - A 6030 HK 6837 HK 600030 CH 600837 CH 000776 CH 600999 CH 601688 CH 601788 CH 600369 CH 000562 CH 000783 CH 002500 CH 000728 CH 600109 CH 000686 CH 1m Price 12m PE Price chg 15.98 26.8 -1.2% 10.86 26.4 2.5% 13.74 21.4 5.7% 10.39 23.1 5.1% 32.11 30.8 6.9% 13.7 19.6 6.5% 11.37 23.9 8.7% 14.51 22.8 9.7% 12.49 33.7 26.2% 17.67 28.7 15.5% 10.18 25.1 6.5% 8.24 37.6 -0.5% 11.92 29.1 9.5% 15.44 41.3 12.9% 18.5 44.2 5.8% 24.7 7.6% Tot ret -1.2% 2.5% 5.7% 5.1% 6.9% 6.5% 8.7% 9.7% 26.2% 15.5% 6.5% -0.5% 9.5% 12.9% 5.8% 7.6% Profit grth Est chg 2.0% -3.4% 2.4% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.2% -3.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 1.5% -0.3% 1.7% 0.0% 1.9% -10.0% 1.9% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.7% -1.0% 3m PE chg Price chg 0.2% -7.0% 0.0% n.a. 3.6% 16.4% 7.9% 16.0% 5.1% 20.9% 5.5% 13.9% 6.8% 26.6% 8.4% 19.9% 24.0% 37.9% 25.9% 32.2% 4.5% 14.8% -2.0% 15.4% 7.4% 21.8% 10.4% 39.1% 2.8% 20.2% 7.0% 19.9% Tot ret -7.0% n.a. 16.4% 16.0% 20.9% 13.9% 26.6% 19.9% 37.9% 32.2% 14.8% 15.4% 22.8% 39.1% 20.2% 20.0% Profit grth Est chg 6.3% -13.6% 7.4% -4.1% 6.2% -6.3% 3.8% -8.7% 5.1% -9.4% 2.8% -9.6% 5.6% 5.7% 4.7% -14.3% 5.3% -19.6% 5.9% -30.8% 5.8% -50.1% 4.7% 2.1% 6.0% -35.7% 6.7% -55.0% 9.2% -1.3% 5.0% -13.5% PE chg 1.3% n.a. 17.1% 22.4% 27.0% 22.5% 13.5% 33.7% 62.8% 80.4% 117.4% 8.0% 78.6% 189.3% 11.5% 32.0%
Source: Bloomberg. Note: All estimates are Bloomberg consensus.
12
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Performance drivers A-share market cycles The A-share market cycle drives the share price performance of HTS. This reflects a beta higher than defensive industries but lower than peers such as CITICS. A relationship between market cycle and earnings also exists, but is weaker than the relationship between market cycle and share price performance. This is in line with our analysis that there are factors affecting earnings other than market cycle. HTS-A is primarily driven by market cycle, in our view. Figure 19: HTS: Relative share price performance (since listing) Indexed
Figure 20: HTS: Market rally and earnings Rmb in millions for fee income and attributable profit Fees income 10,000 Attributable profit 200% CSI300 y/y (RHS) 150% 8,000
120 100 80 60 40 20 Feb-08 May-08
HTS-A (total return) SHCOMP
CSI300
6,000 4,000 2,000 Feb-09 May-09 Feb-10 May-10 Feb-11 May-11 Nov-07 Aug-08 Nov-08 Aug-09 Nov-09 Aug-10 Nov-10 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12
100% 50% 0% -50% -100% FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
0
0 Source: Bloomberg and company reports.
Source: Bloomberg.
Equity raising and recent transactions New issues and placements will increase the share base of A-share market and will generate transaction fees for HTS’ underwriting business. In 2010, when the CSI300 index was flat for most of the year, equity raising continued. This is reflected in the higher underwriting fees of HTS (+141% y/y, weaker commission from IPO partially offset by better market share). However, overall fee income growth remained negative, as secondary trading brokerage fees declined even after accounting for more shares listed due to continued equity raising, and the fall in brokerage income (Rmb1.4 billion) was larger than the increase in underwriting fees (Rmb0.5 billion). Therefore, equity raising, which amounted to 4% of the average market cap, is sufficient to lift the underwriting fees, but not the brokerage fees or overall fee income. In terms of share price, HTS-A underperformed in 2010 when its share base continued to expand. Including IPO and secondary placement, the CSI300 index’s share base expanded by 7% in 2010. HTS-A share price did not outperform in 2011 also, when CSI300 share base rose by 13%.
13
Joseph Leung (852) 2800-8517 joseph.mj.leung@jpmorgan.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 May 2012
Figure 21: HTS: Relative share price performance Index
Figure 22: HTS: Equity raising and underwriting fees Rmb in millions for underwriting fees
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Nov-07 Source: Bloomberg.
HTS-A / CSI300 index CSI300 mkt cap / index (RHS)
6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000
1,000 800 600 400 200 0 FY06 FY07
Underwriting fees Equity raising
5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
Source: Company reports and CEIC. Note: Equity raising is expressed as % of average market cap.
Table 13: HTS upcoming and recent underwriting transactions Name Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co Ltd Ningbo Hualong Electronics Co Ltd Shanghai Beite Metal Works Co Ltd JDM JingDa Machine Ningbo Co Ltd Shanghai Zhongji Pile Industry Co Ltd Ciming Health Checkup Management Group Co Ltd Hainan Shuangcheng Pharmaceuticals Co Ltd Shanghai New Culture Media Group Co Ltd Epoxy Base Electronic Material Corp Ltd Anshan Heavy Duty Mining Machinery Co Ltd Xinzhi Motor Co Ltd Nantong Metalforming Equipment Co Ltd Hubei Huachangda Intelligent Equipment Co Ltd Zhejiang Daoming Optics&Chemical Co Ltd Hubei SanFeng Intelligent Conveying Equipment Co Ltd Zhejiang Haers Vacuum Containers Co Ltd Henan Suntront Technology Co Ltd Shanghai Yaoji Playing Card Co Ltd Zhejiang Kaier New Materials Co Ltd Fujian Minfa Aluminum Co Ltd Beijing SPC Environmental Protection Tech Co Ltd Beijing Comens New Materials Co Ltd Shanghai Xujiahui Commercial Co Ltd Sanjiang Shopping Club Co Ltd China Zhonghua Geotechnical Engineering Co Ltd Shanghai Cooltech Power Co Ltd Hunan Tangel Publishing Co Ltd Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane Co Ltd Zhejiang Jingu Co Ltd Qinhuangdao Tianye Tolian Heavy Industry Co Ltd Zhejiang Runtu Co Ltd Kaiser China Holding Co Ltd Zhongyuan Special Steel Co Ltd Hainan Honz Pharmaceutical Co Ltd Beijing Highlander Digital Technology Co Ltd Huatai Securities Co Ltd Integrated Electronic Systems Lab Co Ltd Hubei Huitian Adhesive Enterprise Co Ltd China Zhongsheng Resources Holdings Ltd Winox Holdings Ltd Source: Bloomberg.
Ticker n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 603002 CH Equity 002667 CH Equity 002664 CH Equity 300280 CH Equity 300278 CH Equity 002632 CH Equity 300276 CH Equity 002615 CH Equity 300259 CH Equity 002605 CH Equity 300234 CH Equity 002578 CH Equity 002573 CH Equity 300200 CH Equity 002561 CH Equity 601116 CH Equity 002542 CH Equity 300153 CH Equity 300148 CH Equity 002523 CH Equity 002488 CH Equity 002459 CH Equity 002440 CH Equity 002425 CH Equity 002423 CH Equity 300086 CH Equity 300065 CH Equity 601688 CH Equity 002339 CH Equity 300041 CH Equity 2623 HK Equity 6838 HK Equity
Trading Date n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. May-12 Mar-12 Mar-12 Dec-11 Dec-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Aug-11 Jun-11 Apr-11 Apr-11 Apr-11 Mar-11 Mar-11 Jan-11 Dec-10 Dec-10 Dec-10 Oct-10 Aug-10 Jul-10 Jun-10 Jun-10 May-10 Mar-10 Feb-10 Jan-10 Jan-10 Apr-12 Jul-11
Amount (US$ mn) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 57 67 85 55 57 97 60 64 65 77 37 100 261 89 171 108 94 120 62 117 99 142 339 87 104 220 67 2298 81 91 21 30
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