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[2008-1-8]海通证券--东力传动(002164)装备工业“韧带

002164 1 6 59 7 29.40 36.00-38.00 20.50-37.98
2008
q 
r  d d    d 2006 89.87 32.37 23.59 0.04 0.33 2007E 33.83 33.98 11.14 2.43 0.44 2008E 58.12 34.25 15.42 0.87 0.70
2006 64.74 7.06 PEG EV/EBITDA -154.38 30.77
2007E 61.14 6.33 10.39 27.06
2008E 23.41 5.11 0.05 6.02
2005 1.39
12000 3000 0/0.00 ( )
30.07 24.30 0.69 0.17
2008 2007 9.25
2009
3.09 2007-2009 44 0.44
2009
2006 2007-2009
2006 31.68%
33%
0.70
1.19
2009
3
30-32
PEG ”
0.60
2009 36-38
Email
d
021-23219411 longh@htsec.com
c
36.00 38.00 53%
2007
k
d
2007-2009 53%
d
q
r
d
→ →
ü 1 8

2009E 70.04 33.29 21.56 1.49 1.19
c
qr c
c
d
c d

r d d
d
q c d d d c
qr c

d
d

q
+ % $
1
1. 1.1 1.2 2. 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3. 4. 4.1 5. 5.1 5.2 6. 6.1 P/E 6.2 7.
.......................................................................................................................... 3 .................................................................................... 3 ......................................................................... 4 .......................................................................................................................... 5 ..................................................................................................... 5 ..................................................................... 5 ............................................................................. 6 ......................................................................................... 7 2010 1374 .................................................. 7 .................................................. 8 ..................................................................... 8 .................................. 8 ......................................................................... 9 ........................................................................... 9 ......................................................................................... 10 ........................................................................................... 10 ........................................................................................................................ 12 .............................................................................. 12 .............................................................. 12 ............................................................................................................. 13
PEG
36-38
/ ................................................................................. 13
.................................................................................................. 13
................................................................................................................................ 13

e r q c
2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
.............................................................3 2006 2006 ................................................................................4 ................................................................................4 ..................................................................4 ..............................................................................4 ..............................................................................................6 20% ..................................................................6 .................................................................................6 .....................................................................7 ....................................................................................7 2005 ...............................................................8 ....................................................9 ..........................................................................................12 ......................................................................................12
2005 2005
10 11 12 13 14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
..............................................................................................................3 ......................................................................................5 ........................................................................10 ....................................................................................................10 ............................................................................11 ............................................................................11 ........................................................................................12 ....................................................................................13

e b
3
1. 1.1
30 1 20 55% 25% 10% 1
1
1 8000
10%
2007
8
3000
12000
1 %
4950 2250 900 900 3000 12000
41.25 18.75 7.50 7.50 2000 36
36 250 36 36 12
25.00
d
d d
 2005
e c c d c c b c c
11 2006
4
1.2
85%
2006 2005 2 2006
25782.51 2005 2004
20.08%
3
2006 28%
25%
30%
40%
35% 7% 5% 8%
3%
2005 9287.78 30.06%
2006 84.98%
36%
2004 2005 5 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15%
1857.59
2006
55.13% 2005 2006 32.74%
2006
28.21%
4 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2004 2005 2006
2004
2005
2006
d
c
90% 19731.59
2004 2005 30959.52 30.67% 2006
c d
19%
c 5021.08 2005 1399.47

e d c d d c c d d d d d d d c c c
c
d d c d
d
c c c SEW 160
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c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c
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20%
2.
2.1
2
1.
Flender
6.3%
10
2010
5
6
6 Flender 6% sew 6%
2%
1%
80%
2.3 2002 20% 2005
262.4 171 35% 91
38%
7 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2002 2003
20% 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2004 2005
2005 2005 683
420.6
262.4
171.4
30 25 10 12
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c
?
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9 2005
1%
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1% 2% 4% 4% 4% 6% 7% 11%
2.4 2000 2000 2005 240 2005 598 2005 149%
10 700 600 500 20 400 15 300 10 200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 5 0 30 25
2.5 2010 5.8 1000
2010 3 25
1374
3.2 1000
2005 15%
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d
 2010
c
l
d
c
e c c d c
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c
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d
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2010 2006
8
1374 65.27% 218 340
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2.6
2.7 1000 100 9% 11% 80% 11 2005 3% 4% 3% 3% 2% Flender 2% 1%
SEW 5%
77%
SEW
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2.8 2005 171 262.4 60 91 38% 8.6 35
26

d
 c d d
c c c c
d

e d c →
d
d
d

d
d
c
d d c d
d

9 35%
2.9
12 2500
70 60
2000 50 1500 40 30 20 500 10 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007.1-5 0
1000
500
3 Flender 15%
SEW
Flender
SEW 30%
3. 2004 2005 1.14%
1.12%
2004
2005
9.46% 9.56% 2
d
c
SEW SEW
Flender Flender
d
c
d
d d
d

d d d < 2<
 d d
e c
c
d

c
c
c


c
c d
c
d
c
10
3
SEW Flender
7.1 1.5 14.4 10.6 3.7 4.9 4.1
3.44 0.61 1.84 1.94 0.91 2.28 2.1
132063 37900 94669 80524 25783 80030 52106
26424
9934 3113 3122 4535 8803
1/2
1/3
4. IPO
30178
4 15373 12118 2960 30451 15100 12118 2960 30178 2008.12 2008.08 2010 2010 -
4.1
d
c
d
c
d
d
c
c
3874
 c c c c
e c c
c
d
d d d d
d
11
5
3200 6300
9500 17 18640
2009
1 3012
6300 2259
2000kw-5000kw 5000kw
Flender
6
2011
24310
24310
100
6300
6300
100
3.86
6300 / 24310 2540 /
3386
Flender
SEW
2960 1810 1150 1.5MW
2008
2007 8 2009
2009
d
c
c
d
13 4.27
2008
8
2 3.42
2006
3.86 25%
d c

d
d c

d
d
2006 2
100.97%
99.55%
2 25%
  

d
      
e c   
d
d d

d
  

  
d
d
d
d
d


  
d d

  
2007
d
/
12
5. 5.1 7 2006 4823 8312 3807 8240 3990 1217 % -3.98 4.96 -5.04 -3.04 -1.22 -15.66 2005
5023 7919 4009 8499 4039 1443
76%
2004
2007 32.88%
2006 13
31.68%
2007
14
7%
8% 76% 5% 4%
5.2 1 2009 2 2 3 4 5
1 20%
2008
8
2009
5.7% 2008 33% 25%
r
c
d
 % -1.36 6.93 -9.66 -1.52 -4.76 -1.00 2004
d
d
d


q r
e d d d c c c c c c 
5092 7406 4438 8630 4241 1455
c c c

q
     
13
8 2004 9452.00 17115.00 0.00 2005 14066.00 17260.00 1667.00 0.67 0.47 3.01 9491.03 8070.07 5021.08 2885.41 314.92 29.88% 31.97% 27.87% 24.07% 17.75% 2835.76 2580.38 1399.47 694.4 55.91 7565.92 2006 19832.00 13412.00 3231.00 0.00 0.56 0.58 2.91 10804.32 7693.56 9287.78 3108.08 65.78 35.53% 35.76% 20.00% 42.03% 85.17% 3838.25 2750.96 1857.59 0.00 1306.21 56.03 9809.04
0.69 0.67 0.00 6301.78 11187.35
2199.41 43.05 31.02% 26.27%
18.27% 8.38% 1954.73 2938.65
401.76 3.61 5298.75
2007E 22500.00 13600.00 3840.00 1350.00 0.56 0.58 2.96 3.74 12600.00 7888.00 11366.40 5049.00 4127.98 80.00 35.53% 35.04% 30.00% 36.00% 29.07% 25.00% 4476.78 2764.33 3409.92 1817.64 1200.00 20.00 13688.67
2008E 28500.00 14080.00 4608.00 3150.00 0.56 0.58 2.96 3.74 15960.00 8166.40 13639.68 11781.00 5542.29 80.00 35.53% 33.97% 30.00% 37.00% 28.87% 25.00% 5670.59 2774.29 4091.90 4358.97 1600.00 20.00 18515.75
2007-2009 0.44 0.70 1.19
6.
6.1 P/EcPEG
36-38
/ 2007
2009
3
2009 36-38
30-32
PEG
0.60
6.2
q
r 29.50 6 36-38 30%
7.
1
2
3
d
c
 53%
d c
e d k d d c c r q c c d d d d     c
2009E 32340.00 15200.00 9025.00 6048.00 0.56 0.58 2.96 3.74 18110.40 8816.00 26714.00 22619.52 16156.36 80.00 35.53% 35.04% 30.00% 38.00% 24.76% 25.00% 6434.63 3089.55 8014.20 8595.42 4000.00 20.00 30153.79
14
2006
2007E 65.84 7.34 8.50 34.12 0.00 2007E 0.51 0.15 18.90 3.14 2.72 2.22 2007E 33.30 22.29 12.90 11.14 7.01 9.68 0.00 2007E 4.27 2.97 0.52 2.48 0.00 2007E 32.79 39.70 51.52 35.53 33.83
2008E 41.64 6.42 6.33 24.54 0.00 2008E 0.44 0.04 -44.99 2.32 1.89 1.36 2008E 33.56 23.50 15.21 15.42 10.20 14.82 0.00 2008E 3.74 2.64 0.57 2.66 0.00 2008E 34.19 35.29 36.31 41.48 58.12
2009E 24.49 5.28 3.78 14.83 0.00 2009E 0.61 0.03 -38.23 2.17 1.74 1.20 2009E 32.60 22.08 15.42 21.56 12.96 20.87 0.00 2009E 4.31 3.08 0.75 5.38 0.00 2009E 67.66 62.75 62.89 57.49 70.04
2006 30960 21150 9596 1768 2723 4764 4847 1915 6763 83 544 256 3964 0.44 2006 3340 8111 6782 20252 20692 44565 7061 17642 10018 10018 27487 267 16804 13818 1.87 2006 3964 1915 5047 458 -1703 -1328 2865 2778 602 3230 2360 0.05
2007E 41111 27423 13406 2348 3797 7306 7345 1821 9165 83 2001 5305 0.44 2007E 43529 7453 8227 61540 10668 75715 9156 19597 5018 5018 24442 267 47610 6918 3.97 2007E 5305 1821 -2452 29162 10645 10645 -10574 -1039 -8221 -6900 28890 21601 40189 2.43
$'7,%( 7,%(
66.09 15.59 11.28 53.20 0.00 2006 1.64 0.82 6.23 1.15 0.76 0.19 2006 31.68 21.84 12.80 23.59 8.90 12.83 0.00 2006 7.53 2.82 0.51 1.97 0.00 2006 20.08 30.04 29.23 28.13 89.87
 2008E 55169 36654 18136 3150 5057 10585 10012 2956 12968 83 2196 8389 0.70 2008E 33000 10002 10263 56390 22480 82266 11014 24351 18 18 24197 267 54407 1918 4.53 2008E 8389 2956 1046 10414 14656 14656 -14574 -4813 -9636 -5000 -6369 -10529 0.87
e $'7,%(9( 63 %3 (3 $'7,%( 7,%( 
2009E 92496 62342 29518 5229 8063 17085 16309 4113 20422 83 2821 14264 1.19 2009E 48315 16770 17456 87797 18979 110066 18733 40403 18 18 40249 267 66154 1918 5.51 2009E 14264 4113 1160 17828 506 506 -423 16063 16419 -2090 15315 1.49
15
2008
1
8
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Aug-07 Dec-07 Oct-07
c d
c
d
c
d
6 6 6
d
6 6 6 6 6
15% 5% 15% -5% 5% -5% -15% -15% 5% 5% 5% 5%
       d
e c c       c c d c c d d c d d d
16
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e

[2008-1-8]海通证券--东力传动(002164)装备工业“韧带

发布机构:
报告类型:公司研究 发布日期:2008/1/8
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内容简介

002164 1 6 59 7 29.40 36.00-38.00 20.50-37.98
2008
q 
r  d d    d 2006 89.87 32.37 23.59 0.04 0.33 2007E 33.83 33.98 11.14 2.43 0.44 2008E 58.12 34.25 15.42 0.87 0.70
2006 64.74 7.06 PEG EV/EBITDA -154.38 30.77
2007E 61.14 6.33 10.39 27.06
2008E 23.41 5.11 0.05 6.02
2005 1.39
12000 3000 0/0.00 ( )
30.07 24.30 0.69 0.17
2008 2007 9.25
2009
3.09 2007-2009 44 0.44
2009
2006 2007-2009
2006 31.68%
33%
0.70
1.19
2009
3
30-32
PEG ”
0.60
2009 36-38
Email
d
021-23219411 longh@htsec.com
c
36.00 38.00 53%
2007
k
d
2007-2009 53%
d
q
r
d
→ →
ü 1 8

2009E 70.04 33.29 21.56 1.49 1.19
c
qr c
c
d
c d

r d d
d
q c d d d c
qr c

d
d

q
+ % $
1
1. 1.1 1.2 2. 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3. 4. 4.1 5. 5.1 5.2 6. 6.1 P/E 6.2 7.
.......................................................................................................................... 3 .................................................................................... 3 ......................................................................... 4 .......................................................................................................................... 5 ..................................................................................................... 5 ..................................................................... 5 ............................................................................. 6 ......................................................................................... 7 2010 1374 .................................................. 7 .................................................. 8 ..................................................................... 8 .................................. 8 ......................................................................... 9 ........................................................................... 9 ......................................................................................... 10 ........................................................................................... 10 ........................................................................................................................ 12 .............................................................................. 12 .............................................................. 12 ............................................................................................................. 13
PEG
36-38
/ ................................................................................. 13
.................................................................................................. 13
................................................................................................................................ 13

e r q c
2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
.............................................................3 2006 2006 ................................................................................4 ................................................................................4 ..................................................................4 ..............................................................................4 ..............................................................................................6 20% ..................................................................6 .................................................................................6 .....................................................................7 ....................................................................................7 2005 ...............................................................8 ....................................................9 ..........................................................................................12 ......................................................................................12
2005 2005
10 11 12 13 14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
..............................................................................................................3 ......................................................................................5 ........................................................................10 ....................................................................................................10 ............................................................................11 ............................................................................11 ........................................................................................12 ....................................................................................13

e b
3
1. 1.1
30 1 20 55% 25% 10% 1
1
1 8000
10%
2007
8
3000
12000
1 %
4950 2250 900 900 3000 12000
41.25 18.75 7.50 7.50 2000 36
36 250 36 36 12
25.00
d
d d
 2005
e c c d c c b c c
11 2006
4
1.2
85%
2006 2005 2 2006
25782.51 2005 2004
20.08%
3
2006 28%
25%
30%
40%
35% 7% 5% 8%
3%
2005 9287.78 30.06%
2006 84.98%
36%
2004 2005 5 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15%
1857.59
2006
55.13% 2005 2006 32.74%
2006
28.21%
4 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2004 2005 2006
2004
2005
2006
d
c
90% 19731.59
2004 2005 30959.52 30.67% 2006
c d
19%
c 5021.08 2005 1399.47

e d c d d c c d d d d d d d c c c
c
d d c d
d
c c c SEW 160
c
c d 2.2
x d
wx c
r 4.
q
wx c 5.
w 2. 3.
c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c
c c c c c
d c c c c c c c c c c d c d d
d c c c c
c c c

e
20%
2.
2.1
2
1.
Flender
6.3%
10
2010
5
6
6 Flender 6% sew 6%
2%
1%
80%
2.3 2002 20% 2005
262.4 171 35% 91
38%
7 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2002 2003
20% 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2004 2005
2005 2005 683
420.6
262.4
171.4
30 25 10 12
d
 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
c
?
c
e c

d
d c c d c
91
c
c
30
7
9 2005
1%
21%
39%
1% 2% 4% 4% 4% 6% 7% 11%
2.4 2000 2000 2005 240 2005 598 2005 149%
10 700 600 500 20 400 15 300 10 200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 5 0 30 25
2.5 2010 5.8 1000
2010 3 25
1374
3.2 1000
2005 15%
10% 2010
d
 2010
c
l
d
c
e c c d c
d
c
d
d
c
c
?
d
2010 2006
8
1374 65.27% 218 340
522
2.6
2.7 1000 100 9% 11% 80% 11 2005 3% 4% 3% 3% 2% Flender 2% 1%
SEW 5%
77%
SEW
5.3%
2.8 2005 171 262.4 60 91 38% 8.6 35
26

d
 c d d
c c c c
d

e d c →
d
d
d

d
d
c
d d c d
d

9 35%
2.9
12 2500
70 60
2000 50 1500 40 30 20 500 10 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007.1-5 0
1000
500
3 Flender 15%
SEW
Flender
SEW 30%
3. 2004 2005 1.14%
1.12%
2004
2005
9.46% 9.56% 2
d
c
SEW SEW
Flender Flender
d
c
d
d d
d

d d d < 2<
 d d
e c
c
d

c
c
c


c
c d
c
d
c
10
3
SEW Flender
7.1 1.5 14.4 10.6 3.7 4.9 4.1
3.44 0.61 1.84 1.94 0.91 2.28 2.1
132063 37900 94669 80524 25783 80030 52106
26424
9934 3113 3122 4535 8803
1/2
1/3
4. IPO
30178
4 15373 12118 2960 30451 15100 12118 2960 30178 2008.12 2008.08 2010 2010 -
4.1
d
c
d
c
d
d
c
c
3874
 c c c c
e c c
c
d
d d d d
d
11
5
3200 6300
9500 17 18640
2009
1 3012
6300 2259
2000kw-5000kw 5000kw
Flender
6
2011
24310
24310
100
6300
6300
100
3.86
6300 / 24310 2540 /
3386
Flender
SEW
2960 1810 1150 1.5MW
2008
2007 8 2009
2009
d
c
c
d
13 4.27
2008
8
2 3.42
2006
3.86 25%
d c

d
d c

d
d
2006 2
100.97%
99.55%
2 25%
  

d
      
e c   
d
d d

d
  

  
d
d
d
d
d


  
d d

  
2007
d
/
12
5. 5.1 7 2006 4823 8312 3807 8240 3990 1217 % -3.98 4.96 -5.04 -3.04 -1.22 -15.66 2005
5023 7919 4009 8499 4039 1443
76%
2004
2007 32.88%
2006 13
31.68%
2007
14
7%
8% 76% 5% 4%
5.2 1 2009 2 2 3 4 5
1 20%
2008
8
2009
5.7% 2008 33% 25%
r
c
d
 % -1.36 6.93 -9.66 -1.52 -4.76 -1.00 2004
d
d
d


q r
e d d d c c c c c c 
5092 7406 4438 8630 4241 1455
c c c

q
     
13
8 2004 9452.00 17115.00 0.00 2005 14066.00 17260.00 1667.00 0.67 0.47 3.01 9491.03 8070.07 5021.08 2885.41 314.92 29.88% 31.97% 27.87% 24.07% 17.75% 2835.76 2580.38 1399.47 694.4 55.91 7565.92 2006 19832.00 13412.00 3231.00 0.00 0.56 0.58 2.91 10804.32 7693.56 9287.78 3108.08 65.78 35.53% 35.76% 20.00% 42.03% 85.17% 3838.25 2750.96 1857.59 0.00 1306.21 56.03 9809.04
0.69 0.67 0.00 6301.78 11187.35
2199.41 43.05 31.02% 26.27%
18.27% 8.38% 1954.73 2938.65
401.76 3.61 5298.75
2007E 22500.00 13600.00 3840.00 1350.00 0.56 0.58 2.96 3.74 12600.00 7888.00 11366.40 5049.00 4127.98 80.00 35.53% 35.04% 30.00% 36.00% 29.07% 25.00% 4476.78 2764.33 3409.92 1817.64 1200.00 20.00 13688.67
2008E 28500.00 14080.00 4608.00 3150.00 0.56 0.58 2.96 3.74 15960.00 8166.40 13639.68 11781.00 5542.29 80.00 35.53% 33.97% 30.00% 37.00% 28.87% 25.00% 5670.59 2774.29 4091.90 4358.97 1600.00 20.00 18515.75
2007-2009 0.44 0.70 1.19
6.
6.1 P/EcPEG
36-38
/ 2007
2009
3
2009 36-38
30-32
PEG
0.60
6.2
q
r 29.50 6 36-38 30%
7.
1
2
3
d
c
 53%
d c
e d k d d c c r q c c d d d d     c
2009E 32340.00 15200.00 9025.00 6048.00 0.56 0.58 2.96 3.74 18110.40 8816.00 26714.00 22619.52 16156.36 80.00 35.53% 35.04% 30.00% 38.00% 24.76% 25.00% 6434.63 3089.55 8014.20 8595.42 4000.00 20.00 30153.79
14
2006
2007E 65.84 7.34 8.50 34.12 0.00 2007E 0.51 0.15 18.90 3.14 2.72 2.22 2007E 33.30 22.29 12.90 11.14 7.01 9.68 0.00 2007E 4.27 2.97 0.52 2.48 0.00 2007E 32.79 39.70 51.52 35.53 33.83
2008E 41.64 6.42 6.33 24.54 0.00 2008E 0.44 0.04 -44.99 2.32 1.89 1.36 2008E 33.56 23.50 15.21 15.42 10.20 14.82 0.00 2008E 3.74 2.64 0.57 2.66 0.00 2008E 34.19 35.29 36.31 41.48 58.12
2009E 24.49 5.28 3.78 14.83 0.00 2009E 0.61 0.03 -38.23 2.17 1.74 1.20 2009E 32.60 22.08 15.42 21.56 12.96 20.87 0.00 2009E 4.31 3.08 0.75 5.38 0.00 2009E 67.66 62.75 62.89 57.49 70.04
2006 30960 21150 9596 1768 2723 4764 4847 1915 6763 83 544 256 3964 0.44 2006 3340 8111 6782 20252 20692 44565 7061 17642 10018 10018 27487 267 16804 13818 1.87 2006 3964 1915 5047 458 -1703 -1328 2865 2778 602 3230 2360 0.05
2007E 41111 27423 13406 2348 3797 7306 7345 1821 9165 83 2001 5305 0.44 2007E 43529 7453 8227 61540 10668 75715 9156 19597 5018 5018 24442 267 47610 6918 3.97 2007E 5305 1821 -2452 29162 10645 10645 -10574 -1039 -8221 -6900 28890 21601 40189 2.43
$'7,%( 7,%(
66.09 15.59 11.28 53.20 0.00 2006 1.64 0.82 6.23 1.15 0.76 0.19 2006 31.68 21.84 12.80 23.59 8.90 12.83 0.00 2006 7.53 2.82 0.51 1.97 0.00 2006 20.08 30.04 29.23 28.13 89.87
 2008E 55169 36654 18136 3150 5057 10585 10012 2956 12968 83 2196 8389 0.70 2008E 33000 10002 10263 56390 22480 82266 11014 24351 18 18 24197 267 54407 1918 4.53 2008E 8389 2956 1046 10414 14656 14656 -14574 -4813 -9636 -5000 -6369 -10529 0.87
e $'7,%(9( 63 %3 (3 $'7,%( 7,%( 
2009E 92496 62342 29518 5229 8063 17085 16309 4113 20422 83 2821 14264 1.19 2009E 48315 16770 17456 87797 18979 110066 18733 40403 18 18 40249 267 66154 1918 5.51 2009E 14264 4113 1160 17828 506 506 -423 16063 16419 -2090 15315 1.49
15
2008
1
8
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Aug-07 Dec-07 Oct-07
c d
c
d
c
d
6 6 6
d
6 6 6 6 6
15% 5% 15% -5% 5% -5% -15% -15% 5% 5% 5% 5%
       d
e c c       c c d c c d d c d d d
16
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