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中国石油股份(00857)Strong free cash flows;reforms to bring more benefits

中金公司


Equity Research
March 24, 2016
PetroChina Strong free cash flows; reforms to bring more benefits Investment Focus Action FY15 results beat. OCF only fell 27% YoY given the 49% drop in crude prices. FCF >Rmb40bn for two years thanks to the capex cut by 31%. The company may consider keeping the dividend flat in amount in 2016. Following reforms, likely including further cost cuts, asset sales and pipeline restructuring, may bring more benefits to the investors. Upgrade PetroChina-A to HOLD and lift TP to Rmb7.5 (1.2x 2016e P/B); maintain HOLD for PetroChina-H and lift TP to HK$6 (0.8x 2016e P/B). Reasoning Advantages in management. NPAT reached Rmb35.7bn even including an Rmb28.5bn impairment loss. The exploration expenses and lifting costs were cut by 17% and 6%, respectively; the refining and chemical segments turned around. The gas pipeline segment recorded Rmb22.8bn additional gains from assets integration. The proven reserves were revised down by >20% and an Rmb23bn impairment loss was made on oil & gas assets. Meanwhile, the company maintained emphasis on exploration and made significant new discoveries. Robust cash flows. Rmb160~190bn capex was planned for 2016 under a crude price assumption of US$40~50/bbl. We estimate, with crude at US$20~45/bbl, OCF could reach Rmb100~250bn, or even >Rmb260bn if the Risk Reserve Fund is included. Pipeline restructuring and a new gas strategy. PetroChina may increase direct sales with a more flexible pricing strategy to spur gas demand from power and chemical sectors. Meanwhile, part of the city gate prices may be lifted. Further restructuring of pipeline assets may contribute to more cash inflows. Earnings forecast and valuation Raise 2016/17e earnings from -Rmb6.3bn /-Rmb16.8bn to Rmb6bn/Rmb3bn. Under our conservative oil price assumptions (US$33/30 in 2016/17), the OCF may stay at >Rmb170~200bn. Risks: oil prices; policy risks; SOE reforms; reviews on RP transactions. Ticker CICC investment rating Last close CICC target 52wk price range Market cap (bn) Daily value (mn) Shares outstanding (mn) Free float (%) Daily volume (mn sh) Business sector
Maintain HOLD 601857.SH ? HOLD Rmb7.78 Rmb7.50 Rmb15.13~6.99 Rmb1,355 Rmb439.64 183,021 88 57.61
00857.HK HOLD HK$5.37 HK$6.00 HK$10.75~4.16 HK$1,618 HK$435.79 183,021 12 82.42 Oil & Gas
140 Relative Value (%) 120 100 80 60 40 Mar-2015
00857.HK
HSCEI
Jun-2015
Sep-2015
Dec-2015
Mar-2016
(Rmb mn)
2014A
2015A
2016E
2017E 1,648,642 -1.3% 3,420 -45.7% 0.02 6.32 0.09 0.93 250.5 0.7 8.1 1.9% 0.1% 0.3%
Revenue (+/-) Net profit (+/-) EPS BPS DPS CPS P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Dividend yield ROAA ROAE
2,282,962 1,725,428 1,670,881 1.1% 107,172 -17.3% 0.59 6.42 0.26 1.95 7.3 0.7 4.0 6.1% 4.5% 9.3% -24.4% 35,517 -66.9% 0.19 6.45 0.09 1.43 23.2 0.7 5.2 1.9% 1.5% 3.0% -3.2% 6,295 -82.3% 0.03 6.39 0.09 1.10 137.5 0.7 7.8 1.8% 0.3% 0.5%
Source: Wind, Bloomberg, company data, CICC Research
Bin GUAN bin.guan@cicc.com.cn SAC Reg. No.: S0080511080005 SFC CE Ref: AGL097
Shuai HE shuai.he@cicc.com.cn SAC Reg. No.: S0080511120001 SFC CE Ref: BCH499
Miaozi WANG vivian.wang@cicc.com.cn SAC Reg. No.: S0080115080056 SFC CE Ref: BFJ414
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report

CICC Research: March 24, 2016 Financial summary Financial statement (Rmb mn) Income statement Revenue Other ops income (expense) Operating profit Finance costs Other income (expense) Profit before income tax Income tax Minority interest Net profit EBITDA Recurrent net income Balance sheet Cash and bank balances Trade and bill receivables Inventories Other current assets Total current assets Fixed assets and CIP Intangible assets and others Total non-current assets Total assets Short-term borrowings Trade and bill payables Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term borrowings Total non-current liabilities Total liabilities Share capital Retained profit Equity Total liabilities & equity Cash flow statement Pretax profit Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Others Cash flow from operations Capital expenditure Others Cash flow from investing Equity financing Bank borrowings Others Cash flow from financing Foreign exchange gain (loss) Net changes in cash 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2,282,962 1,725,428 1,670,881 1,648,642 2,113,129 1,646,176 1,646,971 1,630,447 169,833 -24,036 0 156,759 -37,731 -11,856 107,172 347,296 107,172 73,778 53,104 165,977 98,449 391,308 266,474 79,252 -22,941 0 57,815 -15,726 -6,572 35,517 282,127 35,517 72,773 52,262 126,877 97,432 349,344 259,595 23,910 -16,470 0 8,869 -1,951 -623 6,295 6,295 63,339 41,772 75,031 18,194 -14,804 0 4,819 -1,060 -338 3,420 3,420 77,121 41,216 74,370
Financial ratios Growth ability Revenue Operating profit EBITDA Net profit Profitability Operating margin EBITDA margin Net margin Liquidity Current ratio Quick ratio Cash ratio Liabilities / assets Net debt / equity Return RoA RoE Per-share data EPS (Rmb) BPS (Rmb) DPS (Rmb) Cash flow per share (Rmb) Valuation P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Dividend yield
2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 1.1% -10.0% -1.3% -17.3% 7.4% 15.2% 4.7% 0.67 0.39 0.13 45.2% 39.6% 4.5% 9.3% 0.59 6.42 0.26 1.95 7.3 0.7 4.0 6.1% -24.4% -53.3% -18.8% -66.9% 4.6% 16.4% 2.1% 0.74 0.47 0.15 43.9% 39.7% 1.5% 3.0% 0.19 6.45 0.09 1.43 23.2 0.7 5.2 1.9% -3.2% -69.8% -32.2% -82.3% 1.4% 11.4% 0.4% 0.49 0.29 0.10 43.3% 39.9% 0.3% 0.5% 0.03 6.39 0.09 1.10 137.5 0.7 7.8 1.8% -1.3% -23.9% -2.3% -45.7% 1.1% 11.3% 0.2% 0.49 0.30 0.12 44.4% 42.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.02 6.32 0.09 0.93 250.5 0.7 8.1 1.9%
191,179 186,746
126,690 125,419 306,831 318,126 261,024 262,453
1,747,691 1,784,905 1,786,173 1,797,148 2,014,165 2,044,500 2,047,197 2,059,601 2,405,473 2,393,844 2,354,028 2,377,727 169,128 364,060 46,641 579,829 370,301 507,863 183,021 992,873 106,226 331,040 34,141 471,407 434,475 578,403 183,021 996,695 276,569 301,241 316,725 313,548 28,795 28,239 622,089 643,028 253,042 268,027 396,970 411,955 183,021 183,021 987,007 974,445
1,087,692 1,049,810 1,019,059 1,054,983
1,175,894 1,179,716 1,170,028 1,157,466 2,405,473 2,393,844 2,354,028 2,377,727 156,759 189,499 41,504 -31,285 356,477 15,713 0 43,800 -88,112 -44,312 1,044 22,371 57,815 212,483 13,674 -22,660 261,312 1,871 0 1,272 -46,711 -45,439 -999 -1,005 8,869 13,417 3,876 4,819 -1,246 -9,824
174,485 175,769
200,648 169,517 0 0 -11,090 -15,983 -27,073 0 -9,434 0 0 39,658 -15,983 23,675 0 13,783
-306,551 -217,750 -183,009 -179,409 -290,838 -215,879 -183,009 -179,409
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Company description PetroChina is one of the world’s biggest integrated oil & gas companies, and is involved in oil & gas exploration and production, refining, refined oil marketing, petrochemical products, natural gas pipeline transmission and marketing. The company has leading advantages in upstream E&P and long distance natural gas pipeline transmission in China. In 2014, the company produced 950mn barrels of crude oil and 90.9bn cubic meters of natural gas; 10% of its total oil and gas production is overseas. The company’s processing capacity is 1.2bn barrels of crude oil and 5.1 megatons of ethylene cracking. It markets 120 megatons of refined oil in China, operates ~20,000 gas stations and >70,000km oil & natural gas pipelines. PetroChina produces 50% of China’s crude oil and 70% of its natural gas output; it also has 30%/40% shares in the petrochemical/refined oil markets.
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 2

CICC Research: March 24, 2016 Figure 1: Earnings revisions (Rmb bn) Revenues Operating Expenses Income From Operations Income Taxes Profit after Taxation Minority Interest Net profit attr. to shareholder EPS (Rmb) EPS (HK$) DPS (Rmb) Source: Company data, CICC Research
Old 1,840 -1,839 0.5 2.0 -7.0 0.6 -6.3 -0.03 -0.04 0.00
2016E New 1,671 -1,647 23.9 -2.0 6.9 -0.6 6.3 0.03 0.04 0.09
Chg -9% -10% n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m
Old 1,825 -1,840 -15.3 5.2 -18.5 1.7 -16.8 -0.09 -0.10 0.00
2017E New 1,649 -1,630 18.2 -1.1 3.8 -0.3 3.4 0.02 0.02 0.09
Chg -10% -11% n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m
Figure 2: Results highlights (Rmb mn) Revenue Operating profit Net profit Fully-diluted EPS (Rmb) Operating margin Net margin Source: Company data, CICC Research
2014A 3,849 170 107 0.59 4.4% 2.8%
2015E 2,044 53 32 0.16 2.6% 1.6%
2015A 2,786 79 36 0.19 2.8% 1.3%
2015A YoY -28% -53% -67% -67% -1.6ppt -1.5ppt
vs CICC estimate 36.3% 50.0% 10.9% 21.9% 0.3ppt -0.3ppt
2016E 2,375 24 6 0.03 1.0% 0.3%
2016E YoY -15% -70% -82% -82% -1.8ppt -1ppt
Figure 3: Cash flow forecasts under different crude price scenarios 300 250 200 150
Rmb bn PetroChina Sinopec CNOOC
300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Rmb bn PetroChina Sinopec CNOOC
100 50 0 46 33 20 US$/bbl
46
33
20
US$/bbl
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 3

CICC Research: March 24, 2016 Figure 4: Sensitivity test PetroChina Rmb/US$ Brent Gas price wellhead Output crude vs gas E&P cash cost E&P all-in cost Crude output/Refinig throughput Crude purchase cost Official gasoline and diesel blended price Refining margin (with previous pricing mechanism) Refining margin (with new pricing mechanism) Integrated cash cost (E&P+R&M) x US$/bbl Rmb/ton Rmb/cm US$/mcf x Rmb/boe US$/boe Rmb/boe US$/boe x US$/bbl Rmb/ton Rmb/ton Rmb/ton US$/bbl Rmb/ton US$/bbl Rmb/ton US$/bbl 7.17 20 1,018 1.15 4.5 1.8 150 21 290 40 0.9 22 1,120 2,800 678 13 257 5 1,435 28 6.87 20 976 1.15 4.7 1.8 150 22 290 42 0.9 22 1,073 2,800 697 14 275 6 1,435 29 6.87 33 1,610 1.15 4.7 1.8 160 23 300 44 0.9 35 1,707 2,800 458 9 278 6 1,516 31 6.58 33 1,542 1.15 4.9 1.8 160 24 300 46 0.9 35 1,635 2,800 473 10 293 6 1,516 32 6.58 46 2,149 1.40 6.0 1.8 170 26 310 47 0.9 48 2,242 3,100 285 6 285 6 1,597 34
Segment EBIT E&P R&M Chemicals Gas pipeline Corporate Total Net finance & other expenses Asset sales Effective tax rate Income tax NPAT EPS Total shrs Operating cash flow Reserve ('excessive refining benefits') If the reserve could be transferred to P&L Total PBT Income tax NPAT EPS Operating cash flow Source: Company data, CICC Research
Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn % Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb/shr bn Rmb bn Rmb bn
-109 25 10 3 -12 -83 10 30 20% -13 -51 -0.28 183 103 59
-113 27 10 3 -12 -86 10 30 20% -13 -52 -0.29 183 101 59
-39 26 10 3 -12 -12 10 30 22% 2 6 0.03 183 174 25
-47 28 10 3 -12 -18 10 30 24% 0 2 0.01 183 168 25
37 24 10 4 -12 63 10 30 26% 22 62 0.34 183 261 -
Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb/shr Rmb bn
-4 -1 -3 -0.02 162
-6 -1 -5 -0.03 160
33 7 26 0.14 200
27 7 21 0.11 194
83 22 62 0.34 261
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 4

CICC Research: March 24, 2016 Figure 5: Results review 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 QoQ 利 润 表 (十 亿 元 ) 外部经营净收入 经营成本 息税折旧摊销前利润 折旧及摊销 干井费用摊销 息税前利润 财务成本 联营公司利润及收益 税前利润 所得税 少数股东损益 归属于控股股东的净利润 资 产 负 债 表 (十 亿 元 ) 总资产 股东权益 净负债(现金) 净负债(现金)/股东权益 净负债(现金)/投入资本 现 金 流 量 表 (十 亿 元 ) 经营活动现金净流量 投资活动现金净流量 融资活动现金净流量 现金及等价物变动 每股信息 每股收益报告数 (元/股) 每股经营活动现金流量 (元/股) 每股股利 (元/股) 股利覆盖倍数 总股份数(十亿) 利润率及回报率分析 EBITDAX/营业收入 EBIT/营业收入 归属于控股股东的利润率 有效所得税率 总资产收益率(税前) 净资产收益率 投入资本回报率 利息保障倍数(EBITDAX) 利息保障倍数(EBIT) 盈利现金保障倍数 Profit & Loss (Rmb bn) Net sales Operating cost EBITDAX DD&A Exploration write-offs EBIT Financial costs Income from Associates PBT Tax expense Minority NPAT reported Balance Sheet (Rmb bn) Total assets Shareholder funds Net Debt (Cash) Net Debt / Equity Net Debt / Net Debt+Equity Cash Flow (Rmb bn) Operating activities Investing activities Financing activities Net change in cash Per Share Information EPS reported (Rmb) CFPS (Rmb) DPS (Rmb) Dividend cover Shares on issue (bn) Margins & Returns Analysis EBITDAX/sales EBIT/sales NPAT normalized margin Effective tax rate ROA (pre tax) ROE ROCE Interest cover - EBITDAX (x) Interest cover - EBIT (x) Cash realization ratio (x) 529 -432 97 -42 -3 52 -8 3 47 -10 -3 34.2 625 -527 98 -43 -4 51 -6 3 48 -12 -3 33.9 601 -509 92 -47 -3 42 -5 3 41 -9 -4 27.9 528 -456 72 -46 -2 24 -5 1 20 -7 -2 11.1 410 -347 63 -47 -2 14 -6 2 10 -2 -2 6.2 467 -385 82 -45 -4 33 -6 2 28 -8 -2 19.3 427 -362 65 -46 -4 16 -6 -0 9 -2 -2 5.2 420 -339 81 -65 0 16 -4 -1 10 -4 -1 4.9 -2% -6% 24% 43% n.m -2% -31% n.m 6% 77% -39% -5% 1% 3% 1% YoY 1H14 2H14 1,129 -965 164 -93 -5 67 -11 5 61 -16 -6 39 1H15 878 -732 145 -92 -6 47 -12 3 38 -10 -3 25 2H15 848 -701 146 -111 -3 32 -11 -2 19 -6 -3 10 HoH -3% -4% 1% 21% -47% -32% -8% -25% -50% -40% 6% -60% 0% 14% -1% YoY -25% -27% -11% 20% -29% -52% 4% n.m -68% -63% -43% -74% 0% 2% 0% 2014 2,283 -1,924 359 -177 -12 169.8 -24 11 157 -38 -12 107 2,405 1,318 466 35% 26% 356 -291 -44 21 0.59 1.95 0.26 2.3 183 16% 7% 5% 24% 7.2% 8.3% 7.4% 15 7 3.3 2015 1,725 -1,434 292 -203 -10 79.3 -23 2 58 -16 -7 36 2,394 1,344 467 35% 26% YoY -24% -25% -19% 14% -20% -53% -5% -86% -63% -58% -45% -67% 0% 2% 0% -20% 1,154 -26% -959 12% 195 41% -85 n.m -7 -34% 103 -15% -13 n.m 6 -51% 96 -50% -22 -32% -6 -56% 68
2,382 2,426 2,392 2,405 2,394 2,385 2,372 2,394 1,306 1,313 1,313 1,318 1,322 1,182 1,311 1,344 499 447 410 466 479 472 463 467 38% 34% 31% 35% 36% 40% 35% 35% 28% 25% 24% 26% 27% 29% 26% 26% 21 -71 50 1 0.19 0.11 n.m 183 18% 10% 6% 21% 2.2% 2.7% 2.3% 12 7 0.6 113 -47 -28 38 0.19 0.62 0.17 1.12 183 16% 8% 5% 24% 2.1% 2.6% 2.2% 18 9 3.3 121 -59 -81 -19 0.15 0.66 n.m 183 15% 7% 5% 21% 1.8% 2.1% 1.9% 17 8 4.3 102 -113 14 2 0.06 0.56 0.10 0.70 183 14% 5% 2% 36% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 14 5 9.1 29 -52 30 8 0.03 0.16 n.m 183 15% 3% 1% 23% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 11 2 4.8 82 -48 -48 -16 0.11 0.45 0.06 1.70 183 18% 7% 4% 27% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 13 5 4.2 88 -39 -20 22 0.03 0.48 n.m 183 15% 4% 1% 23% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 10 2 17.0 62 -77 -8 -14 0.03 0.34 0.02 0.98 183 19% 4% 1% 38% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 18 4 12.6
0% 2,426 2,405 2% 1,313 1,318 0% 447 466 34% 35% 25% 26% 133 -118 22 38 0.37 0.73 0.17 2.25 183 17% 9% 6% 23% 4.3% 5.3% 4.6% 15 8 1.96 223 -173 -67 -16 0.21 1.22 0.10 2.33 183 15% 6% 3% 26% 2.8% 3.0% 2.8% 15 6 5.71
2,385 2,394 1,182 1,344 472 467 40% 35% 29% 26% 111 -100 -18 -8 0.14 0.61 0.06 2.26 183 150 -115 -27 8 0.06 0.82 0.02 2.12 183
-30% -39% n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m -5% -56% -30% -39% n.m -74% n.m 41%
36% 15% 51% n.m -60% 36% -60% -6%
-33% -33% -59% n.m -74% -33% -74% -9%
261 -27% -216 n.m -45 n.m -0 n.m 0.19 -67% 1.43 -27% 0.09 -67% 2.2 -3% 183 17% 5% 2% 27% 3.3% 2.7% 3.2% 13 3 7.4
17% 17% 5% 4% 3% 1% 26% 30% 2.0% 1.3% 2.0% 0.8% 2.0% 1.3% 12 13 4 3 4.37 14.87
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Figure 6: Segment results review 2015 WTI Brent Realized crude price Segment EBIT E&P Refining Chemical Marketing NG&P Corp Total NPAT EPS 2014 WTI Brent Realized crude price Segment EBIT E&P Refining Chemical Marketing NG&P Corp Total NPAT EPS US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/bbl Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb 1Q 48.6 53.9 48.9 17.3 -3.8 -1.3 -2.6 7.4 -3.1 13.9 6.2 0.03 2Q 59.8 62.3 60.6 15.6 9.3 0.4 5.4 7.5 -5.0 33.2 19.3 0.11 3Q 45.1 48.4 44.3 13.6 -3.9 2.3 -3.8 10.5 -2.5 16.2 5.2 0.03 4Q 43.3 45.1 38.3 -12.6 3.0 -1.2 0.5 25.8 0.3 15.9 3.4 0.03 QoQ -4% -7% -14% n.m n.m n.m n.m 146% n.m -2% -35% -10% YoY -41% -41% -48% -131% -131% -76% -109% 564% -157% -33% -79% -69%
US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/bbl Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb
98.5 108.0 100.1 52.7 2.0 -4.2 3.3 1.4 -3.0 52.2 34.2 0.19
103.1 109.8 100.2 49.5 2.4 -3.6 4.8 2.7 -4.9 50.9 33.9 0.19
97.7 102.2 99.5 43.7 -1.8 -3.5 2.4 5.2 -3.5 42.5 27.9 0.15
72.9 76.8 74.0 40.4 -9.7 -5.1 -5.1 3.9 -0.6 23.8 15.9 0.09
-25% -25% -26% -8% n.m n.m n.m -24% n.m -44% -43% -43%
-25% -30% -28% -5% n.m n.m n.m -29% n.m -47% -54% -54%
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 5

CICC Research: March 24, 2016 Figure 7: Operating data review 1Q14 E&P US$/Rmb HK$/Rmb WTI Brent Realized crude price Wellhead gas price Crude oil output Natural gas output Oil&gas output Refining Refinery throughput Major refinery output Gasoline output Diesel output Kerosene output Marketing Sales of major refinery products Chemicals Ethylene output Synthetic resins Synthetic rubbers Urea Synthetic fiber and polymer 2Q14 3Q14 6.17 0.80 97.7 4Q14 6.15 0.79 72.9 76.8 80.3 6.02 246 835 385 264 25 8 15 1 43 1Q15 6.24 0.80 48.6 53.9 48.9 6.24 239 851 381 254 23 8 14 1 38 2Q15 6.12 0.79 59.8 62.3 60.6 6.6 238 699 355 242 23 8 14 1 40 3Q15 4Q15 QoQ YoY 1H14 2H14 6.16 0.79 85.5 97.0 89.7 6.2 480 1,533 736 511 47 15 29 2 86 2,581 4,067 391 1,138 670 1H15 6.22 0.79 53.2 2H15 6.34 0.82 44.2 HoH 2% 4% -17% -19% -25% -7% 4% 2% 3% 1% -2% 2% -6% 12% 6% 26% 20% 23% 13% 8% YoY 3% 3% -48% -52% -54% -4% 3% 3% 3% -2% -3% 8% -10% 26% -4% 9% 10% 1% 20% 4% 2014 6.16 0.79 93.2 99.0 94.8 6.28 946 3,029 1,450 1,011 93 31 58 4 161 4,976 7,951 745 2,663 1,293 2015 6.28 0.81 48.7 52.4 47.9 6.18 972 3,131 1,494 998 92 32 54 5 160 5,032 8,215 713 2,566 1,348 YoY 2% 1% -48% -47% -50% -2% 3% 3% 3% -1% -1% 5% -6% 26% 0% 1% 3% -4% -4% 4% 6.10 6.23 0.79 0.80 98.5 103.1 6.30 6.38 0.81 0.83 45.1 43.27 48.4 45.10 44.3 38.3 6.39 5.56 245 249 739 842 369 389 246 22 8 13 1 41 256 23 8 13 1 41 1% 4% 6.17 2% 5% 0.80 -4% -41% 100.9 -7% -41% 100.9 -14% -52% 100.1 -13% -8% 6.4 2% 2% 466 14% 1% 1,496 6% 1% 715 4% -3% 4% -6% 7% 3% 1% -14% 1% 28% -2% 5% 7% 5% 34% 5% -6% 500 46 16 28 2 75
US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/mcf mmbbl bcf mmboe mmbbl mmton mmton mmton mmton mmton Thousand ton Thousand ton Thousand ton Thousand ton Thousand ton
108.0 109.8 102.2 100.1 100.2 99.5 6.29 6.43 6.42 232 234 234 790 706 698 363 352 351 254 23 8 14 1 34 246 23 7 14 1 41 246 22 7 14 1 42
58.0 46.7 54.7 41.2 6.4 5.9464 478 495 1,550 1,581 736 758 496 46 16 28 3 78 2,229 3,731 320 1,206 648 502 45 16 26 3 82 2,803 4,484 393 1,360 700
1,171 1,224 1,293 1,288 1,263 966 1,366 1,437 1,864 2,020 2,001 2,066 2,093 1,638 2,167 2,317 173 181 201 190 194 126 192 201 600 925 618 520 526 680 582 778 307 316 320 350 323 325 341 359
12% 2,395 12% 3,884 6% 354 50% 1,525 3% 623
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Figure 8: P/E and P/B bands 25 20 HK$ PetroChina-H forward P/E 15 12 9 HK$ PetroChina-H forward P/B
15 10
6 3 0 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Price .8 x 1.0 x 1.2 x 1.4 x
5 0 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Price 10.0 x 15.0 x 20.0 x 25.0 x Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 6

CICC Research: March 24, 2016 Figure 9: Valuations of comparables Bloomberg Curr. code Super Majors ExxonMobil XOM US Royal Dutch Shell RDSA LN BP BP/ LN Chevron Texaco CVX US TotalFinaElf FP FP Average Majors ENI ENI IM ConocoPhillips COP US Occidental OXY US Repsol YPF REP SM Marathon MRO US Hess Corp HES US Lukoil LUKOY US Average Emerging market oils ONGC ONGC IN PTT PTT TB Gazprom GAZP RM Petrobras PETR4 BZ CNOOCLtd (*) 883 HK PetroChina H (*) 857 HK Sinopec H (*) 386 HK Average A-share PetroChina A (*) 601857 CH Sinopec A (*) 600028 CH Global market summary Highest (Excl A-share) Highest Lowest Average Average (Excl A-share) USD GBP GBP USD EUR Price Mkt. cap 24/3/2016 (US$ bn) 84.10 16.96 3.56 93.98 40.86 349.2 190.8 92.9 177.0 112.1 15E 22.0 10.0 10.2 25.8 11.1 15.8 58.3 n.m 413.3 8.0 n.m n.m 7.0 121.6 P/E(x) 16E 35.5 14.7 19.0 68.1 15.6 30.6 69.1 n.m n.m 19.6 n.m n.m 8.2 32.3 17E 20.0 8.5 8.9 19.5 11.3 13.6 19.3 69.3 51.5 10.7 n.m n.m 5.5 31.3 P/B(x) 15E 16E 17E 2.0 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 2.1 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.3 2.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.8 2.1 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.3 2.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 15E 16E 17E 9.3 6.3 5.3 7.4 5.7 6.8 4.7 9.4 11.1 5.5 7.6 8.8 2.5 7.1 4.1 6.0 2.8 6.3 3.7 5.6 4.8 4.8 6.9 5.8 11.1 11.1 2.5 6.2 6.1 11.2 5.9 5.4 8.3 6.8 7.5 5.3 11.5 13.5 5.6 11.4 16.9 2.8 9.6 4.6 5.6 3.3 6.3 8.4 8.9 4.9 6.0 10.2 5.6 16.9 16.9 2.8 7.7 7.7 8.2 4.4 4.4 5.8 5.3 5.6 3.9 6.5 9.2 4.9 6.7 9.0 2.3 6.1 4.7 5.2 2.9 5.0 8.3 9.2 5.0 5.8 10.5 5.7 9.2 10.5 2.3 6.0 5.8 15E Div. Yield 16E 17E 15E ROE 16E 17E
3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 11.1% 10.9% 10.8% 11.2% 11.1% 11.0% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 5.8% 5.9% 5.9% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 6.1% 7.4% 4.3% 9.8% 6.4% 1.9% 7.0% 6.1% 5.9% 2.5% 4.4% 8.2% 1.9% 1.9% 6.7% 4.5% 6.0% 2.5% 4.5% 7.9% 1.9% 1.9% 7.6% 4.6%
9.3% 5.8% 9.1% 4.3% 6.0% 9.8% 4.4% 3.1% 7.7% 4.0% 1.3% 4.3% 10.6% 7.2% 9.9% 6.5% 4.7% 8.2% 1.4% -3.1% 0.5% 5.6% -5.2% -5.5% 4.7% -0.2% 1.3% -6.5% -1.4% 3.1% -5.6% -8.4% 4.3% -1.9% 4.6% -0.3% 3.4% 4.2% -3.4% -6.3% 6.3% 1.2%
EUR USD USD EUR USD USD USD
13.47 40.00 68.60 10.13 10.57 52.33 39.28
54.7 49.4 52.4 16.3 8.9 16.5 33.4
INR THB RUB BRL HKD HKD HKD
214.60 291.00 146.00 7.86 9.17 5.37 4.92
27.6 23.7 50.6 32.5 52.8 208.3 100.9
7.7 10.3 10.2 11.1 11.0 9.8 2.9 3.1 2.9 19.5 19.5 5.1 19.0 n.m n.m 23.2 137.5 250.5 17.0 17.7 20.1 14.2 33.0 50.2 40.0 226.2 416.3 19.4 19.1 21.6 413.3 136.3 253.1 413.3 226.2 416.3 2.9 3.1 2.9 40.3 43.3 53.5 41.6 32.0 32.9
4.6% 3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 3.6% 4.0% 4.4% 4.9% 6.1% 11.2% 10.0% 10.1% 3.2% n.m n.m 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 1.1% 2.1% 1.1% 2.1% 1.1% 1.9%
13.3% 9.5% 9.2% 10.8% 9.8% 10.1% 8.4% 8.6% 9.1% 2.2% 2.7% 7.1% 4.7% -6.2% -7.5% 3.0% 0.5% 0.3% 3.9% 3.8% 3.3% 6.6% 4.1% 4.5% 3.0% 3.9% 0.5% 3.8% 0.3% 3.3%
RMB RMB
7.78 4.66
208.2 84.6 349.2 349.2 8.9
1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 2.0 2.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 2.4 2.4 0.3 1.0 0.9 2.4 2.4 0.3 1.0 0.9
11.2% 11.1% 11.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.0% 1.1% 1.9% 0.1% 5.4% 5.0% 4.8% 5.8% 5.3% 5.2%
13.3% 9.8% 10.1% 13.3% 9.8% 10.1% -5.5% -8.4% -7.5% 4.0% 2.1% 4.0% 4.1% 2.1% 4.3%
Note: (*) uses CICC forecasts, and all others use market consensus. Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 7

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中国石油股份(00857)Strong free cash flows;reforms to bring more benefits

发布机构:中金公司
报告类型:公司报告 发布日期:2016/3/24
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内容简介


Equity Research
March 24, 2016
PetroChina Strong free cash flows; reforms to bring more benefits Investment Focus Action FY15 results beat. OCF only fell 27% YoY given the 49% drop in crude prices. FCF >Rmb40bn for two years thanks to the capex cut by 31%. The company may consider keeping the dividend flat in amount in 2016. Following reforms, likely including further cost cuts, asset sales and pipeline restructuring, may bring more benefits to the investors. Upgrade PetroChina-A to HOLD and lift TP to Rmb7.5 (1.2x 2016e P/B); maintain HOLD for PetroChina-H and lift TP to HK$6 (0.8x 2016e P/B). Reasoning Advantages in management. NPAT reached Rmb35.7bn even including an Rmb28.5bn impairment loss. The exploration expenses and lifting costs were cut by 17% and 6%, respectively; the refining and chemical segments turned around. The gas pipeline segment recorded Rmb22.8bn additional gains from assets integration. The proven reserves were revised down by >20% and an Rmb23bn impairment loss was made on oil & gas assets. Meanwhile, the company maintained emphasis on exploration and made significant new discoveries. Robust cash flows. Rmb160~190bn capex was planned for 2016 under a crude price assumption of US$40~50/bbl. We estimate, with crude at US$20~45/bbl, OCF could reach Rmb100~250bn, or even >Rmb260bn if the Risk Reserve Fund is included. Pipeline restructuring and a new gas strategy. PetroChina may increase direct sales with a more flexible pricing strategy to spur gas demand from power and chemical sectors. Meanwhile, part of the city gate prices may be lifted. Further restructuring of pipeline assets may contribute to more cash inflows. Earnings forecast and valuation Raise 2016/17e earnings from -Rmb6.3bn /-Rmb16.8bn to Rmb6bn/Rmb3bn. Under our conservative oil price assumptions (US$33/30 in 2016/17), the OCF may stay at >Rmb170~200bn. Risks: oil prices; policy risks; SOE reforms; reviews on RP transactions. Ticker CICC investment rating Last close CICC target 52wk price range Market cap (bn) Daily value (mn) Shares outstanding (mn) Free float (%) Daily volume (mn sh) Business sector
Maintain HOLD 601857.SH ? HOLD Rmb7.78 Rmb7.50 Rmb15.13~6.99 Rmb1,355 Rmb439.64 183,021 88 57.61
00857.HK HOLD HK$5.37 HK$6.00 HK$10.75~4.16 HK$1,618 HK$435.79 183,021 12 82.42 Oil & Gas
140 Relative Value (%) 120 100 80 60 40 Mar-2015
00857.HK
HSCEI
Jun-2015
Sep-2015
Dec-2015
Mar-2016
(Rmb mn)
2014A
2015A
2016E
2017E 1,648,642 -1.3% 3,420 -45.7% 0.02 6.32 0.09 0.93 250.5 0.7 8.1 1.9% 0.1% 0.3%
Revenue (+/-) Net profit (+/-) EPS BPS DPS CPS P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Dividend yield ROAA ROAE
2,282,962 1,725,428 1,670,881 1.1% 107,172 -17.3% 0.59 6.42 0.26 1.95 7.3 0.7 4.0 6.1% 4.5% 9.3% -24.4% 35,517 -66.9% 0.19 6.45 0.09 1.43 23.2 0.7 5.2 1.9% 1.5% 3.0% -3.2% 6,295 -82.3% 0.03 6.39 0.09 1.10 137.5 0.7 7.8 1.8% 0.3% 0.5%
Source: Wind, Bloomberg, company data, CICC Research
Bin GUAN bin.guan@cicc.com.cn SAC Reg. No.: S0080511080005 SFC CE Ref: AGL097
Shuai HE shuai.he@cicc.com.cn SAC Reg. No.: S0080511120001 SFC CE Ref: BCH499
Miaozi WANG vivian.wang@cicc.com.cn SAC Reg. No.: S0080115080056 SFC CE Ref: BFJ414
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report

CICC Research: March 24, 2016 Financial summary Financial statement (Rmb mn) Income statement Revenue Other ops income (expense) Operating profit Finance costs Other income (expense) Profit before income tax Income tax Minority interest Net profit EBITDA Recurrent net income Balance sheet Cash and bank balances Trade and bill receivables Inventories Other current assets Total current assets Fixed assets and CIP Intangible assets and others Total non-current assets Total assets Short-term borrowings Trade and bill payables Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term borrowings Total non-current liabilities Total liabilities Share capital Retained profit Equity Total liabilities & equity Cash flow statement Pretax profit Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Others Cash flow from operations Capital expenditure Others Cash flow from investing Equity financing Bank borrowings Others Cash flow from financing Foreign exchange gain (loss) Net changes in cash 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2,282,962 1,725,428 1,670,881 1,648,642 2,113,129 1,646,176 1,646,971 1,630,447 169,833 -24,036 0 156,759 -37,731 -11,856 107,172 347,296 107,172 73,778 53,104 165,977 98,449 391,308 266,474 79,252 -22,941 0 57,815 -15,726 -6,572 35,517 282,127 35,517 72,773 52,262 126,877 97,432 349,344 259,595 23,910 -16,470 0 8,869 -1,951 -623 6,295 6,295 63,339 41,772 75,031 18,194 -14,804 0 4,819 -1,060 -338 3,420 3,420 77,121 41,216 74,370
Financial ratios Growth ability Revenue Operating profit EBITDA Net profit Profitability Operating margin EBITDA margin Net margin Liquidity Current ratio Quick ratio Cash ratio Liabilities / assets Net debt / equity Return RoA RoE Per-share data EPS (Rmb) BPS (Rmb) DPS (Rmb) Cash flow per share (Rmb) Valuation P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Dividend yield
2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 1.1% -10.0% -1.3% -17.3% 7.4% 15.2% 4.7% 0.67 0.39 0.13 45.2% 39.6% 4.5% 9.3% 0.59 6.42 0.26 1.95 7.3 0.7 4.0 6.1% -24.4% -53.3% -18.8% -66.9% 4.6% 16.4% 2.1% 0.74 0.47 0.15 43.9% 39.7% 1.5% 3.0% 0.19 6.45 0.09 1.43 23.2 0.7 5.2 1.9% -3.2% -69.8% -32.2% -82.3% 1.4% 11.4% 0.4% 0.49 0.29 0.10 43.3% 39.9% 0.3% 0.5% 0.03 6.39 0.09 1.10 137.5 0.7 7.8 1.8% -1.3% -23.9% -2.3% -45.7% 1.1% 11.3% 0.2% 0.49 0.30 0.12 44.4% 42.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.02 6.32 0.09 0.93 250.5 0.7 8.1 1.9%
191,179 186,746
126,690 125,419 306,831 318,126 261,024 262,453
1,747,691 1,784,905 1,786,173 1,797,148 2,014,165 2,044,500 2,047,197 2,059,601 2,405,473 2,393,844 2,354,028 2,377,727 169,128 364,060 46,641 579,829 370,301 507,863 183,021 992,873 106,226 331,040 34,141 471,407 434,475 578,403 183,021 996,695 276,569 301,241 316,725 313,548 28,795 28,239 622,089 643,028 253,042 268,027 396,970 411,955 183,021 183,021 987,007 974,445
1,087,692 1,049,810 1,019,059 1,054,983
1,175,894 1,179,716 1,170,028 1,157,466 2,405,473 2,393,844 2,354,028 2,377,727 156,759 189,499 41,504 -31,285 356,477 15,713 0 43,800 -88,112 -44,312 1,044 22,371 57,815 212,483 13,674 -22,660 261,312 1,871 0 1,272 -46,711 -45,439 -999 -1,005 8,869 13,417 3,876 4,819 -1,246 -9,824
174,485 175,769
200,648 169,517 0 0 -11,090 -15,983 -27,073 0 -9,434 0 0 39,658 -15,983 23,675 0 13,783
-306,551 -217,750 -183,009 -179,409 -290,838 -215,879 -183,009 -179,409
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Company description PetroChina is one of the world’s biggest integrated oil & gas companies, and is involved in oil & gas exploration and production, refining, refined oil marketing, petrochemical products, natural gas pipeline transmission and marketing. The company has leading advantages in upstream E&P and long distance natural gas pipeline transmission in China. In 2014, the company produced 950mn barrels of crude oil and 90.9bn cubic meters of natural gas; 10% of its total oil and gas production is overseas. The company’s processing capacity is 1.2bn barrels of crude oil and 5.1 megatons of ethylene cracking. It markets 120 megatons of refined oil in China, operates ~20,000 gas stations and >70,000km oil & natural gas pipelines. PetroChina produces 50% of China’s crude oil and 70% of its natural gas output; it also has 30%/40% shares in the petrochemical/refined oil markets.
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 2

CICC Research: March 24, 2016 Figure 1: Earnings revisions (Rmb bn) Revenues Operating Expenses Income From Operations Income Taxes Profit after Taxation Minority Interest Net profit attr. to shareholder EPS (Rmb) EPS (HK$) DPS (Rmb) Source: Company data, CICC Research
Old 1,840 -1,839 0.5 2.0 -7.0 0.6 -6.3 -0.03 -0.04 0.00
2016E New 1,671 -1,647 23.9 -2.0 6.9 -0.6 6.3 0.03 0.04 0.09
Chg -9% -10% n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m
Old 1,825 -1,840 -15.3 5.2 -18.5 1.7 -16.8 -0.09 -0.10 0.00
2017E New 1,649 -1,630 18.2 -1.1 3.8 -0.3 3.4 0.02 0.02 0.09
Chg -10% -11% n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m
Figure 2: Results highlights (Rmb mn) Revenue Operating profit Net profit Fully-diluted EPS (Rmb) Operating margin Net margin Source: Company data, CICC Research
2014A 3,849 170 107 0.59 4.4% 2.8%
2015E 2,044 53 32 0.16 2.6% 1.6%
2015A 2,786 79 36 0.19 2.8% 1.3%
2015A YoY -28% -53% -67% -67% -1.6ppt -1.5ppt
vs CICC estimate 36.3% 50.0% 10.9% 21.9% 0.3ppt -0.3ppt
2016E 2,375 24 6 0.03 1.0% 0.3%
2016E YoY -15% -70% -82% -82% -1.8ppt -1ppt
Figure 3: Cash flow forecasts under different crude price scenarios 300 250 200 150
Rmb bn PetroChina Sinopec CNOOC
300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Rmb bn PetroChina Sinopec CNOOC
100 50 0 46 33 20 US$/bbl
46
33
20
US$/bbl
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 3

CICC Research: March 24, 2016 Figure 4: Sensitivity test PetroChina Rmb/US$ Brent Gas price wellhead Output crude vs gas E&P cash cost E&P all-in cost Crude output/Refinig throughput Crude purchase cost Official gasoline and diesel blended price Refining margin (with previous pricing mechanism) Refining margin (with new pricing mechanism) Integrated cash cost (E&P+R&M) x US$/bbl Rmb/ton Rmb/cm US$/mcf x Rmb/boe US$/boe Rmb/boe US$/boe x US$/bbl Rmb/ton Rmb/ton Rmb/ton US$/bbl Rmb/ton US$/bbl Rmb/ton US$/bbl 7.17 20 1,018 1.15 4.5 1.8 150 21 290 40 0.9 22 1,120 2,800 678 13 257 5 1,435 28 6.87 20 976 1.15 4.7 1.8 150 22 290 42 0.9 22 1,073 2,800 697 14 275 6 1,435 29 6.87 33 1,610 1.15 4.7 1.8 160 23 300 44 0.9 35 1,707 2,800 458 9 278 6 1,516 31 6.58 33 1,542 1.15 4.9 1.8 160 24 300 46 0.9 35 1,635 2,800 473 10 293 6 1,516 32 6.58 46 2,149 1.40 6.0 1.8 170 26 310 47 0.9 48 2,242 3,100 285 6 285 6 1,597 34
Segment EBIT E&P R&M Chemicals Gas pipeline Corporate Total Net finance & other expenses Asset sales Effective tax rate Income tax NPAT EPS Total shrs Operating cash flow Reserve ('excessive refining benefits') If the reserve could be transferred to P&L Total PBT Income tax NPAT EPS Operating cash flow Source: Company data, CICC Research
Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn % Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb/shr bn Rmb bn Rmb bn
-109 25 10 3 -12 -83 10 30 20% -13 -51 -0.28 183 103 59
-113 27 10 3 -12 -86 10 30 20% -13 -52 -0.29 183 101 59
-39 26 10 3 -12 -12 10 30 22% 2 6 0.03 183 174 25
-47 28 10 3 -12 -18 10 30 24% 0 2 0.01 183 168 25
37 24 10 4 -12 63 10 30 26% 22 62 0.34 183 261 -
Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb/shr Rmb bn
-4 -1 -3 -0.02 162
-6 -1 -5 -0.03 160
33 7 26 0.14 200
27 7 21 0.11 194
83 22 62 0.34 261
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 4

CICC Research: March 24, 2016 Figure 5: Results review 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 QoQ 利 润 表 (十 亿 元 ) 外部经营净收入 经营成本 息税折旧摊销前利润 折旧及摊销 干井费用摊销 息税前利润 财务成本 联营公司利润及收益 税前利润 所得税 少数股东损益 归属于控股股东的净利润 资 产 负 债 表 (十 亿 元 ) 总资产 股东权益 净负债(现金) 净负债(现金)/股东权益 净负债(现金)/投入资本 现 金 流 量 表 (十 亿 元 ) 经营活动现金净流量 投资活动现金净流量 融资活动现金净流量 现金及等价物变动 每股信息 每股收益报告数 (元/股) 每股经营活动现金流量 (元/股) 每股股利 (元/股) 股利覆盖倍数 总股份数(十亿) 利润率及回报率分析 EBITDAX/营业收入 EBIT/营业收入 归属于控股股东的利润率 有效所得税率 总资产收益率(税前) 净资产收益率 投入资本回报率 利息保障倍数(EBITDAX) 利息保障倍数(EBIT) 盈利现金保障倍数 Profit & Loss (Rmb bn) Net sales Operating cost EBITDAX DD&A Exploration write-offs EBIT Financial costs Income from Associates PBT Tax expense Minority NPAT reported Balance Sheet (Rmb bn) Total assets Shareholder funds Net Debt (Cash) Net Debt / Equity Net Debt / Net Debt+Equity Cash Flow (Rmb bn) Operating activities Investing activities Financing activities Net change in cash Per Share Information EPS reported (Rmb) CFPS (Rmb) DPS (Rmb) Dividend cover Shares on issue (bn) Margins & Returns Analysis EBITDAX/sales EBIT/sales NPAT normalized margin Effective tax rate ROA (pre tax) ROE ROCE Interest cover - EBITDAX (x) Interest cover - EBIT (x) Cash realization ratio (x) 529 -432 97 -42 -3 52 -8 3 47 -10 -3 34.2 625 -527 98 -43 -4 51 -6 3 48 -12 -3 33.9 601 -509 92 -47 -3 42 -5 3 41 -9 -4 27.9 528 -456 72 -46 -2 24 -5 1 20 -7 -2 11.1 410 -347 63 -47 -2 14 -6 2 10 -2 -2 6.2 467 -385 82 -45 -4 33 -6 2 28 -8 -2 19.3 427 -362 65 -46 -4 16 -6 -0 9 -2 -2 5.2 420 -339 81 -65 0 16 -4 -1 10 -4 -1 4.9 -2% -6% 24% 43% n.m -2% -31% n.m 6% 77% -39% -5% 1% 3% 1% YoY 1H14 2H14 1,129 -965 164 -93 -5 67 -11 5 61 -16 -6 39 1H15 878 -732 145 -92 -6 47 -12 3 38 -10 -3 25 2H15 848 -701 146 -111 -3 32 -11 -2 19 -6 -3 10 HoH -3% -4% 1% 21% -47% -32% -8% -25% -50% -40% 6% -60% 0% 14% -1% YoY -25% -27% -11% 20% -29% -52% 4% n.m -68% -63% -43% -74% 0% 2% 0% 2014 2,283 -1,924 359 -177 -12 169.8 -24 11 157 -38 -12 107 2,405 1,318 466 35% 26% 356 -291 -44 21 0.59 1.95 0.26 2.3 183 16% 7% 5% 24% 7.2% 8.3% 7.4% 15 7 3.3 2015 1,725 -1,434 292 -203 -10 79.3 -23 2 58 -16 -7 36 2,394 1,344 467 35% 26% YoY -24% -25% -19% 14% -20% -53% -5% -86% -63% -58% -45% -67% 0% 2% 0% -20% 1,154 -26% -959 12% 195 41% -85 n.m -7 -34% 103 -15% -13 n.m 6 -51% 96 -50% -22 -32% -6 -56% 68
2,382 2,426 2,392 2,405 2,394 2,385 2,372 2,394 1,306 1,313 1,313 1,318 1,322 1,182 1,311 1,344 499 447 410 466 479 472 463 467 38% 34% 31% 35% 36% 40% 35% 35% 28% 25% 24% 26% 27% 29% 26% 26% 21 -71 50 1 0.19 0.11 n.m 183 18% 10% 6% 21% 2.2% 2.7% 2.3% 12 7 0.6 113 -47 -28 38 0.19 0.62 0.17 1.12 183 16% 8% 5% 24% 2.1% 2.6% 2.2% 18 9 3.3 121 -59 -81 -19 0.15 0.66 n.m 183 15% 7% 5% 21% 1.8% 2.1% 1.9% 17 8 4.3 102 -113 14 2 0.06 0.56 0.10 0.70 183 14% 5% 2% 36% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 14 5 9.1 29 -52 30 8 0.03 0.16 n.m 183 15% 3% 1% 23% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 11 2 4.8 82 -48 -48 -16 0.11 0.45 0.06 1.70 183 18% 7% 4% 27% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 13 5 4.2 88 -39 -20 22 0.03 0.48 n.m 183 15% 4% 1% 23% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 10 2 17.0 62 -77 -8 -14 0.03 0.34 0.02 0.98 183 19% 4% 1% 38% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 18 4 12.6
0% 2,426 2,405 2% 1,313 1,318 0% 447 466 34% 35% 25% 26% 133 -118 22 38 0.37 0.73 0.17 2.25 183 17% 9% 6% 23% 4.3% 5.3% 4.6% 15 8 1.96 223 -173 -67 -16 0.21 1.22 0.10 2.33 183 15% 6% 3% 26% 2.8% 3.0% 2.8% 15 6 5.71
2,385 2,394 1,182 1,344 472 467 40% 35% 29% 26% 111 -100 -18 -8 0.14 0.61 0.06 2.26 183 150 -115 -27 8 0.06 0.82 0.02 2.12 183
-30% -39% n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m -5% -56% -30% -39% n.m -74% n.m 41%
36% 15% 51% n.m -60% 36% -60% -6%
-33% -33% -59% n.m -74% -33% -74% -9%
261 -27% -216 n.m -45 n.m -0 n.m 0.19 -67% 1.43 -27% 0.09 -67% 2.2 -3% 183 17% 5% 2% 27% 3.3% 2.7% 3.2% 13 3 7.4
17% 17% 5% 4% 3% 1% 26% 30% 2.0% 1.3% 2.0% 0.8% 2.0% 1.3% 12 13 4 3 4.37 14.87
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Figure 6: Segment results review 2015 WTI Brent Realized crude price Segment EBIT E&P Refining Chemical Marketing NG&P Corp Total NPAT EPS 2014 WTI Brent Realized crude price Segment EBIT E&P Refining Chemical Marketing NG&P Corp Total NPAT EPS US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/bbl Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb 1Q 48.6 53.9 48.9 17.3 -3.8 -1.3 -2.6 7.4 -3.1 13.9 6.2 0.03 2Q 59.8 62.3 60.6 15.6 9.3 0.4 5.4 7.5 -5.0 33.2 19.3 0.11 3Q 45.1 48.4 44.3 13.6 -3.9 2.3 -3.8 10.5 -2.5 16.2 5.2 0.03 4Q 43.3 45.1 38.3 -12.6 3.0 -1.2 0.5 25.8 0.3 15.9 3.4 0.03 QoQ -4% -7% -14% n.m n.m n.m n.m 146% n.m -2% -35% -10% YoY -41% -41% -48% -131% -131% -76% -109% 564% -157% -33% -79% -69%
US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/bbl Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb
98.5 108.0 100.1 52.7 2.0 -4.2 3.3 1.4 -3.0 52.2 34.2 0.19
103.1 109.8 100.2 49.5 2.4 -3.6 4.8 2.7 -4.9 50.9 33.9 0.19
97.7 102.2 99.5 43.7 -1.8 -3.5 2.4 5.2 -3.5 42.5 27.9 0.15
72.9 76.8 74.0 40.4 -9.7 -5.1 -5.1 3.9 -0.6 23.8 15.9 0.09
-25% -25% -26% -8% n.m n.m n.m -24% n.m -44% -43% -43%
-25% -30% -28% -5% n.m n.m n.m -29% n.m -47% -54% -54%
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 5

CICC Research: March 24, 2016 Figure 7: Operating data review 1Q14 E&P US$/Rmb HK$/Rmb WTI Brent Realized crude price Wellhead gas price Crude oil output Natural gas output Oil&gas output Refining Refinery throughput Major refinery output Gasoline output Diesel output Kerosene output Marketing Sales of major refinery products Chemicals Ethylene output Synthetic resins Synthetic rubbers Urea Synthetic fiber and polymer 2Q14 3Q14 6.17 0.80 97.7 4Q14 6.15 0.79 72.9 76.8 80.3 6.02 246 835 385 264 25 8 15 1 43 1Q15 6.24 0.80 48.6 53.9 48.9 6.24 239 851 381 254 23 8 14 1 38 2Q15 6.12 0.79 59.8 62.3 60.6 6.6 238 699 355 242 23 8 14 1 40 3Q15 4Q15 QoQ YoY 1H14 2H14 6.16 0.79 85.5 97.0 89.7 6.2 480 1,533 736 511 47 15 29 2 86 2,581 4,067 391 1,138 670 1H15 6.22 0.79 53.2 2H15 6.34 0.82 44.2 HoH 2% 4% -17% -19% -25% -7% 4% 2% 3% 1% -2% 2% -6% 12% 6% 26% 20% 23% 13% 8% YoY 3% 3% -48% -52% -54% -4% 3% 3% 3% -2% -3% 8% -10% 26% -4% 9% 10% 1% 20% 4% 2014 6.16 0.79 93.2 99.0 94.8 6.28 946 3,029 1,450 1,011 93 31 58 4 161 4,976 7,951 745 2,663 1,293 2015 6.28 0.81 48.7 52.4 47.9 6.18 972 3,131 1,494 998 92 32 54 5 160 5,032 8,215 713 2,566 1,348 YoY 2% 1% -48% -47% -50% -2% 3% 3% 3% -1% -1% 5% -6% 26% 0% 1% 3% -4% -4% 4% 6.10 6.23 0.79 0.80 98.5 103.1 6.30 6.38 0.81 0.83 45.1 43.27 48.4 45.10 44.3 38.3 6.39 5.56 245 249 739 842 369 389 246 22 8 13 1 41 256 23 8 13 1 41 1% 4% 6.17 2% 5% 0.80 -4% -41% 100.9 -7% -41% 100.9 -14% -52% 100.1 -13% -8% 6.4 2% 2% 466 14% 1% 1,496 6% 1% 715 4% -3% 4% -6% 7% 3% 1% -14% 1% 28% -2% 5% 7% 5% 34% 5% -6% 500 46 16 28 2 75
US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/mcf mmbbl bcf mmboe mmbbl mmton mmton mmton mmton mmton Thousand ton Thousand ton Thousand ton Thousand ton Thousand ton
108.0 109.8 102.2 100.1 100.2 99.5 6.29 6.43 6.42 232 234 234 790 706 698 363 352 351 254 23 8 14 1 34 246 23 7 14 1 41 246 22 7 14 1 42
58.0 46.7 54.7 41.2 6.4 5.9464 478 495 1,550 1,581 736 758 496 46 16 28 3 78 2,229 3,731 320 1,206 648 502 45 16 26 3 82 2,803 4,484 393 1,360 700
1,171 1,224 1,293 1,288 1,263 966 1,366 1,437 1,864 2,020 2,001 2,066 2,093 1,638 2,167 2,317 173 181 201 190 194 126 192 201 600 925 618 520 526 680 582 778 307 316 320 350 323 325 341 359
12% 2,395 12% 3,884 6% 354 50% 1,525 3% 623
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Figure 8: P/E and P/B bands 25 20 HK$ PetroChina-H forward P/E 15 12 9 HK$ PetroChina-H forward P/B
15 10
6 3 0 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Price .8 x 1.0 x 1.2 x 1.4 x
5 0 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Price 10.0 x 15.0 x 20.0 x 25.0 x Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 6

CICC Research: March 24, 2016 Figure 9: Valuations of comparables Bloomberg Curr. code Super Majors ExxonMobil XOM US Royal Dutch Shell RDSA LN BP BP/ LN Chevron Texaco CVX US TotalFinaElf FP FP Average Majors ENI ENI IM ConocoPhillips COP US Occidental OXY US Repsol YPF REP SM Marathon MRO US Hess Corp HES US Lukoil LUKOY US Average Emerging market oils ONGC ONGC IN PTT PTT TB Gazprom GAZP RM Petrobras PETR4 BZ CNOOCLtd (*) 883 HK PetroChina H (*) 857 HK Sinopec H (*) 386 HK Average A-share PetroChina A (*) 601857 CH Sinopec A (*) 600028 CH Global market summary Highest (Excl A-share) Highest Lowest Average Average (Excl A-share) USD GBP GBP USD EUR Price Mkt. cap 24/3/2016 (US$ bn) 84.10 16.96 3.56 93.98 40.86 349.2 190.8 92.9 177.0 112.1 15E 22.0 10.0 10.2 25.8 11.1 15.8 58.3 n.m 413.3 8.0 n.m n.m 7.0 121.6 P/E(x) 16E 35.5 14.7 19.0 68.1 15.6 30.6 69.1 n.m n.m 19.6 n.m n.m 8.2 32.3 17E 20.0 8.5 8.9 19.5 11.3 13.6 19.3 69.3 51.5 10.7 n.m n.m 5.5 31.3 P/B(x) 15E 16E 17E 2.0 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 2.1 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.3 2.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.8 2.1 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.3 2.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 15E 16E 17E 9.3 6.3 5.3 7.4 5.7 6.8 4.7 9.4 11.1 5.5 7.6 8.8 2.5 7.1 4.1 6.0 2.8 6.3 3.7 5.6 4.8 4.8 6.9 5.8 11.1 11.1 2.5 6.2 6.1 11.2 5.9 5.4 8.3 6.8 7.5 5.3 11.5 13.5 5.6 11.4 16.9 2.8 9.6 4.6 5.6 3.3 6.3 8.4 8.9 4.9 6.0 10.2 5.6 16.9 16.9 2.8 7.7 7.7 8.2 4.4 4.4 5.8 5.3 5.6 3.9 6.5 9.2 4.9 6.7 9.0 2.3 6.1 4.7 5.2 2.9 5.0 8.3 9.2 5.0 5.8 10.5 5.7 9.2 10.5 2.3 6.0 5.8 15E Div. Yield 16E 17E 15E ROE 16E 17E
3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 11.1% 10.9% 10.8% 11.2% 11.1% 11.0% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 5.8% 5.9% 5.9% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 6.1% 7.4% 4.3% 9.8% 6.4% 1.9% 7.0% 6.1% 5.9% 2.5% 4.4% 8.2% 1.9% 1.9% 6.7% 4.5% 6.0% 2.5% 4.5% 7.9% 1.9% 1.9% 7.6% 4.6%
9.3% 5.8% 9.1% 4.3% 6.0% 9.8% 4.4% 3.1% 7.7% 4.0% 1.3% 4.3% 10.6% 7.2% 9.9% 6.5% 4.7% 8.2% 1.4% -3.1% 0.5% 5.6% -5.2% -5.5% 4.7% -0.2% 1.3% -6.5% -1.4% 3.1% -5.6% -8.4% 4.3% -1.9% 4.6% -0.3% 3.4% 4.2% -3.4% -6.3% 6.3% 1.2%
EUR USD USD EUR USD USD USD
13.47 40.00 68.60 10.13 10.57 52.33 39.28
54.7 49.4 52.4 16.3 8.9 16.5 33.4
INR THB RUB BRL HKD HKD HKD
214.60 291.00 146.00 7.86 9.17 5.37 4.92
27.6 23.7 50.6 32.5 52.8 208.3 100.9
7.7 10.3 10.2 11.1 11.0 9.8 2.9 3.1 2.9 19.5 19.5 5.1 19.0 n.m n.m 23.2 137.5 250.5 17.0 17.7 20.1 14.2 33.0 50.2 40.0 226.2 416.3 19.4 19.1 21.6 413.3 136.3 253.1 413.3 226.2 416.3 2.9 3.1 2.9 40.3 43.3 53.5 41.6 32.0 32.9
4.6% 3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 3.6% 4.0% 4.4% 4.9% 6.1% 11.2% 10.0% 10.1% 3.2% n.m n.m 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 1.1% 2.1% 1.1% 2.1% 1.1% 1.9%
13.3% 9.5% 9.2% 10.8% 9.8% 10.1% 8.4% 8.6% 9.1% 2.2% 2.7% 7.1% 4.7% -6.2% -7.5% 3.0% 0.5% 0.3% 3.9% 3.8% 3.3% 6.6% 4.1% 4.5% 3.0% 3.9% 0.5% 3.8% 0.3% 3.3%
RMB RMB
7.78 4.66
208.2 84.6 349.2 349.2 8.9
1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 2.0 2.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 2.4 2.4 0.3 1.0 0.9 2.4 2.4 0.3 1.0 0.9
11.2% 11.1% 11.0% 11.2% 11.1% 11.0% 1.1% 1.9% 0.1% 5.4% 5.0% 4.8% 5.8% 5.3% 5.2%
13.3% 9.8% 10.1% 13.3% 9.8% 10.1% -5.5% -8.4% -7.5% 4.0% 2.1% 4.0% 4.1% 2.1% 4.3%
Note: (*) uses CICC forecasts, and all others use market consensus. Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 7

CICC Research
Important legal disclosures General Disclosures This report has been produced by China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited (CICCHKS). This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, but CICCHKS and its associated company(ies)(collectively, hereinafter “CICC”) do not represent that it is accurate or complete. The information and opinions contained herein are for investors’ reference only and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any client, and are not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. Under no circumstances shall the information contained herein or the opinions expressed herein constitute a personal recommendation to anyone. 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Explanation of stock ratings: “Conviction BUY” indicates analyst perceives absolute return of 30% or more over the next 6~12 months; “BUY” absolute return of 20% or more; “HOLD” between +20% and -10%; “SELL” -10% and below; “Conviction SELL” -20% and below. Asterisk denotes non-directional rating change: coverage initiation or resumption, addition to or removal from Conviction BUY/SELL rating level. Explanation of sector ratings: Analyst expects a sector rated “OVERWEIGHT” to outperform the market by 10% or more over the next 6~12 months, “EQUAL-WEIGHT” to end up between 10% below and 10% above the market, and “UNDERWEIGHT” to fall behind the market by 10% or more, over the next 6~12 months. Copyright of this report belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation is prohibited without CICC’s written permission. V150902 Editing: Wanbo ZHOU

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