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中国石油股份(00857)Loss expected but OCF surprisingly strong

中金公司


Equity Research
April 29, 2016
PetroChina Loss expected but OCF surprisingly strong Results Review 1Q16 loss expected, but OCF surprisingly strong 1Q16 revenue down 14% YoY and 16% QoQ to Rmb353bn. Net loss was Rmb14bn, vs. net profit of Rmb6.2bn in 1Q15. However OCF was surprisingly up 108% YoY and only down 2% QoQ to Rmb61bn. FCF even turned positive to Rmb10bn from -Rmb24bn in 1Q15, after cutting capex by 25% YoY and 12% QoQ to Rmb51bn. Net debt at end-1Q16 down 3% to Rmb464bn with net gearing at 40%. Realized price down 44% YoY and 29% QoQ to US$27.3/bbl for crude, and down 22% YoY and 12% QoQ to US$4.89/mcf (~Rmb0.9/cm) in 1Q16. E&P EBIT loss widened to Rmb20bn, from a profit of Rmb17bn in 1Q15. Refining EBIT was Rmb12bn, much better than a loss of Rmb3.8bn in 1Q15. Marketing EBIT down 11% QoQ to Rmb0.4bn but still better than a loss of Rmb2.6bn in 1Q15. Chemicals EBIT were Rmb3.1bn from losses of Rmb1.3bn in 1Q15. Gas and pipeline EBIT down 36% YoY and 82% QoQ to Rmb4.7bn. 1Q16 production up 1% YoY to 243mmbbl for crude, and up 5% YoY to 891bcf (~25bcm) for gas. Overseas output up 22% YoY to 59mmboe. Lifting costs down 8% YoY to ~US$12/bbl while the all-in cost down 11% to US$41/bbl. Trends to watch Pipeline restructuring and a new gas strategy. PetroChina may increase direct sales with a more flexible pricing strategy to spur gas demand from power and chemical sectors. Meanwhile, part of city gate prices may be lifted. Further restructuring of pipeline assets may contribute to more cash inflows. Earnings forecast Maintain 2016/17 EPS at Rmb0.03/Rmb0.02. Valuation and recommendation Maintain HOLD for A-/H-share. Keep TP at Rmb7.5 (1.2x 2016e P/B) for A-share and HK$6 (0.8x 2016e P/B) for H-share. Risks Oil prices; policy risks; SOE reform; reviews on RP transaction. Ticker CICC investment rating Last close CICC target 52wk price range Market cap (bn) Daily value (mn) Shares outstanding (mn) Free float (%) Daily volume (mn sh) Business sector
Maintain HOLD 601857.SH HOLD Rmb7.53 Rmb7.50 Rmb14.04~6.99 Rmb1,324 Rmb317.30 183,021 88 41.54
00857.HK HOLD HK$5.92 HK$6.00 HK$10.01~4.16 HK$1,580 HK$576.41 183,021 12 107.74 Oil & Gas
115 Relative Value (%) 100 85 70 55 40 Apr-2015
00857.HK
HSCEI
Jul-2015
Oct-2015
Jan-2016
Apr-2016
(Rmb mn) Revenue
2014A
2015A
2016E
2017E 1,648,642
2,282,962 1,725,428 1,670,881
(+/-) Net profit
1.1% 107,172
-24.4% 35,517
-3.2% 6,295
-1.3% 3,420
(+/-) EPS BPS DPS CPS P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Dividend yield ROAA ROAE
-17.3% 0.59 6.42 0.26 1.95 8.1 0.7 4.2 5.6% 4.5% 9.3%
-66.9% 0.19 6.45 0.09 1.43 25.6 0.8 5.5 1.8% 1.5% 3.0%
-82.3% 0.03 6.39 0.09 1.10 149.3 0.8 8.2 1.7% 0.3% 0.5%
-45.7% 0.02 6.32 0.09 0.93 275.2 0.8 8.6 1.7% 0.1% 0.3%
Source: Wind, Bloomberg, company data, CICC Research
Bin GUAN bin.guan@cicc.com.cn SAC Reg. No.: S0080511080005 SFC CE Ref: AGL097
Miaozi WANG vivian.wang@cicc.com.cn SAC Reg. No.: S0080115080056 SFC CE Ref: BFJ414
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report

CICC Research: April 29, 2016 Financial summary Financial statement (Rmb mn) Income statement Revenue Other ops income (expense) Operating profit Finance costs Other income (expense) Profit before income tax Income tax Minority interest Net profit EBITDA Recurrent net income Balance sheet Cash and bank balances Trade and bill receivables Inventories Other current assets Total current assets Fixed assets and CIP Intangible assets and others Total non-current assets Total assets Short-term borrowings Trade and bill payables Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term borrowings Total non-current liabilities Total liabilities Share capital Retained profit Equity Total liabilities & equity Cash flow statement Pretax profit Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Others Cash flow from operations Capital expenditure Others Cash flow from investing Equity financing Bank borrowings Others Cash flow from financing Foreign exchange gain (loss) Net changes in cash 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2,282,962 1,725,428 1,670,881 1,648,642 2,113,129 1,646,176 1,646,971 1,630,447 169,833 -24,036 0 156,759 -37,731 -11,856 107,172 347,296 107,172 73,778 53,104 165,977 98,449 391,308 266,474 79,252 -22,941 0 57,815 -15,726 -6,572 35,517 282,127 35,517 72,773 52,262 126,877 97,432 349,344 259,595 23,910 -16,470 0 8,869 -1,951 -623 6,295 6,295 63,339 41,772 75,031 18,194 -14,804 0 4,819 -1,060 -338 3,420 3,420 77,121 41,216 74,370
Financial ratios Growth ability Revenue Operating profit EBITDA Net profit Profitability Operating margin EBITDA margin Net margin Liquidity Current ratio Quick ratio Cash ratio Liabilities / assets Net debt / equity Return RoA RoE Per-share data EPS (Rmb) BPS (Rmb) DPS (Rmb) Cash flow per share (Rmb) Valuation P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Dividend yield
2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 1.1% -10.0% -1.3% -17.3% 7.4% 15.2% 4.7% 0.67 0.39 0.13 45.2% 35.3% 4.5% 9.3% 0.59 6.42 0.26 1.95 8.1 0.7 4.2 5.6% -24.4% -53.3% -18.8% -66.9% 4.6% 16.4% 2.1% 0.74 0.47 0.15 43.9% 34.8% 1.5% 3.0% 0.19 6.45 0.09 1.43 25.6 0.8 5.5 1.8% -3.2% -69.8% -32.2% -82.3% 1.4% 11.4% 0.4% 0.49 0.29 0.10 43.3% 34.9% 0.3% 0.5% 0.03 6.39 0.09 1.10 149.3 0.8 8.2 1.7% -1.3% -23.9% -2.3% -45.7% 1.1% 11.3% 0.2% 0.49 0.30 0.12 44.4% 37.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.02 6.32 0.09 0.93 275.2 0.8 8.6 1.7%
191,179 186,746
126,690 125,419 306,831 318,126 261,024 262,453
1,747,691 1,784,905 1,786,173 1,797,148 2,014,165 2,044,500 2,047,197 2,059,601 2,405,473 2,393,844 2,354,028 2,377,727 169,128 364,060 46,641 579,829 370,301 507,863 183,021 992,873 106,226 331,040 34,141 471,407 434,475 578,403 183,021 996,695 276,569 301,241 316,725 313,548 28,795 28,239 622,089 643,028 253,042 268,027 396,970 411,955 183,021 183,021 987,007 974,445
1,087,692 1,049,810 1,019,059 1,054,983
1,175,894 1,179,716 1,170,028 1,157,466 2,405,473 2,393,844 2,354,028 2,377,727 156,759 189,499 41,504 -31,285 356,477 15,713 0 43,800 -88,112 -44,312 1,044 22,371 57,815 212,483 13,674 -22,660 261,312 1,871 0 1,272 -46,711 -45,439 -999 -1,005 8,869 13,417 3,876 4,819 -1,246 -9,824
174,485 175,769
200,648 169,517 0 0 -11,090 -15,983 -27,073 0 -9,434 0 0 39,658 -15,983 23,675 0 13,783
-306,551 -217,750 -183,009 -179,409 -290,838 -215,879 -183,009 -179,409
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Company description PetroChina is one of the world’s biggest integrated oil & gas companies, and is involved in oil & gas exploration and production, refining, refined oil marketing, petrochemical products, natural gas pipeline transmission and marketing. The company has leading advantages in upstream E&P and long distance natural gas pipeline transmission in China. In 2014, the company produced 950mn barrels of crude oil and 90.9bn cubic meters of natural gas; 10% of its total oil and gas production is overseas. The company’s processing capacity is 1.2bn barrels of crude oil and 5.1 megatons of ethylene cracking. It markets 120 megatons of refined oil in China, operates ~20,000 gas stations and >70,000km oil & natural gas pipelines. PetroChina produces 50% of China’s crude oil and 70% of its natural gas output; it also has 30%/40% shares in the petrochemical/refined oil markets.
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 2

CICC Research: April 29, 2016 Figure 1: Results review (Rmb bn) Revenue Operating profit Net profit Fully-diluted EPS (Rmb) Operating margin Net margin Source: Company data, CICC Research
1Q15 410 14 6 0.03 3.4% 1.5%
2Q15 467 33 19 0.11 7.1% 4.1%
3Q15 427 16 5 0.03 3.8% 1.2%
4Q15 420 16 5 0.03 3.8% 1.2%
1Q16 353 -3 -14 -0.08 -0.8% -3.9%
YoY -14% n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m
QoQ -16% n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m
2016E 1,671 24 6 0.03 1.4% 0.4%
1Q as % of FY16 21.1% n.m n.m n.m
Figure 2: Operating data review 1Q15 E&P US$/Rmb HK$/Rmb WTI Brent Realized crude price Wellhead gas price Crude oil output Domestic Oversea Natural gas output Domestic Oversea Oil&gas output Domestic Oversea Refining Refinery throughput Major refinery output Gasoline output Diesel output Kerosene output Marketing Sales of major refinery products Chemicals Ethylene output Synthetic resins Synthetic rubbers Urea Synthetic fiber and polymer 6.24 0.80 48.6 53.9 48.9 6.24 239 199 40 851 798 53 381 332 49 253.5 23.3 7.8 14.3 1.3 37.7 1,263 2,093 194 526 323 2Q15 6.12 0.79 59.8 62.3 60.6 6.6 238 203 35 699 648 51 355 311 44 242.2 23.1 8.2 13.7 1.3 40.1 966 1,638 126 680 325 3Q15 6.30 0.81 45.1 48.4 44.3 6.39 245 204 41 739 682 57 369 318 51 246.0 22.3 7.9 13.0 1.5 41.5 1,366 2,167 192 582 341 4Q15 6.38 0.83 43.27 45.10 38.3 5.56 249 200 49 842 776 67 389 330 60 256.4 23.1 8.4 13.2 1.5 40.8 1,437 2,317 201 778 359 1Q16 QoQ 6.54 0.84 33.45 33.94 27.3 4.89 243 194 48 891 825 66 391 332 59 3% 1% -23% -25% -29% -12% -3% -3% -1% 6% 6% 0% 0% 1% -1% YoY 5% 4% -31% -37% -44% -22% 1% -3% 21% 5% 3% 26% 3% 0% 22% 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 HoH YoY 2014 6.16 0.79 93.2 99.0 94.8 6.28 946 823 122 3,029 2,879 150 1,450 1,303 147 2015 YoY 6.28 2% 0.81 1% 48.7 -48% 52.4 -47% 47.9 -50% 6.18 -2% 972 3% 807 -2% 166 35% 3,131 3% 2,904 1% 227 52% 1,494 3% 1,291 -1% 204 38% -1% -1% 5% -6% 26% 0% 1% 3% -4% -4% 4%
US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/mcf mmbbl mmbbl mmbbl bcf bcf bcf mmboe mmboe mmboe mmbbl mn tonne mn tonne mn tonne mn tonne mmton Thousand tonne Thousand tonne Thousand tonne Thousand tonne Thousand tonne
6.17 6.16 6.22 6.34 2% 3% 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.82 4% 3% 100.9 85.5 53.2 44.2 -17% -48% 100.9 97.0 58.0 46.7 -19% -52% 100.1 89.7 54.7 41.2 -25% -54% 6.4 6.2 6.4 5.9 -7% -4% 466 480 478 495 4% 3% 409 414 402 405 1% -2% 56 66 75 90 20% 36% 1,496 1,533 1,550 1,581 2% 3% 1,431 1,449 1,446 1,458 1% 1% 65 85 104 124 19% 46% 715 736 736 758 3% 3% 648 655 643 648 1% -1% 67 80 93 111 19% 38%
247.2 -4% 22.3 -4% 9.0 7% 12.0 -9% 1.0 -31% 37.1 -9%
-2% 500.0 510.6 495.7 502.4 -4% 46.0 46.7 46.5 45.5 16% 15.6 15.1 16.0 16.3 -16% 28.4 29.2 27.9 26.2 -24% 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 -2% 75.2 85.7 77.8 82.3
1% -2% 1,010.6 998.1 -2% -3% 92.7 91.9 2% 8% 30.7 32.3 -6% -10% 57.6 54.1 12% 26% 4.4 5.5 6% -4% 160.9 160.1 4,976 7,951 745 2,663 1,293 5,032 8,215 713 2,566 1,348
1,421 -1% 2,335 1% 191 -5% 650 -16% 371 3%
13% 2,395 2,581 2,229 2,803 12% 3,884 4,067 3,731 4,484 -2% 354 391 320 393 24% 1,525 1,138 1,206 1,360 15% 623 670 648 700
26% 9% 20% 10% 23% 1% 13% 20% 8% 4%
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 3

CICC Research: April 29, 2016 Figure 3: Segment EBIT 2016 WTI Brent Realized crude price Segment EBIT E&P Refining Chemical Marketing NG&P Corp Total NPAT EPS DPS 2015 WTI Brent Realized crude price Segment EBIT E&P Refining Chemical Marketing NG&P Corp Total NPAT EPS US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/bbl Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb Rmb 1Q 33.5 33.9 27.3 -20.3 11.5 3.1 0.4 4.7 -2.2 -2.7 -13.8 -0.08 1Q 48.6 53.9 48.9 17.3 -3.8 -1.3 -2.6 7.4 -3.1 13.9 6.2 0.03 2Q n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 2Q 59.8 62.3 60.6 15.6 9.3 0.4 5.4 7.5 -5.0 33.2 19.3 0.11 3Q n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 3Q 45.1 48.4 44.3 13.6 -3.9 2.3 -3.8 10.5 -2.5 16.2 5.2 0.03 4Q n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 4Q 43.3 45.1 38.3 -12.6 3.0 -1.2 0.5 25.8 0.3 15.9 3.4 0.03 QoQ -23% -25% -29% n.m. 281% n.m -11% -82% n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m QoQ -4% -7% -14% n.m n.m n.m n.m 146% n.m -2% -35% -10% YoY -31% -37% -44% n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. -36% n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. YoY -41% -41% -48% -131% -131% -76% -109% 564% -157% -33% -79% -69%
US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/bbl Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Figure 4: All-in costs E&P segment Sales EBIT Total costs Production All-in cost 1Q14 Rmb mn Rmb mn Rmb mn mmboe Rmb/boe US$/boe 202,625 52,710 149,915 363 413 68 2Q14 196,741 49,789 146,952 352 418 67 3Q14 192,370 43,455 148,915 351 424 69 4Q14 185,838 46,760 139,078 385 361 59 1Q15 125,452 17,299 108,153 381 284 45 2Q15 120,426 15,618 104,808 355 295 48 3Q15 117,744 13,596 104,148 369 283 45 4Q15 111,790 -12,552 124,342 389 319 50 1Q16 83,744 -20,268 104,012 391 266 41 QoQ YoY
-25% n.m -16% 0% -17% -19%
-33% n.m -4% 3% -6% -11%
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 4

CICC Research: April 29, 2016 Figure 5: P/E and P/B bands 25 20 HK$ PetroChina-H forward P/E 15 12 HK$ PetroChina-H forward P/B
15 10 5
9 6 3
0 0 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Price .8 x 1.0 x 1.2 x 1.4 x Price 10.0 x 15.0 x 20.0 x 25.0 x Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CICC Research
Figure 6: Valuations of comparables Bloomberg code Super Majors ExxonMobil XOM US Royal Dutch Shell RDSA LN BP BP/ LN Chevron Texaco CVX US TotalFinaElf FP FP Average Majors ENI ENI IM ConocoPhillips COP US Occidental OXY US Repsol YPF REP SM Marathon MRO US Hess Corp HES US Average Emerging market oils ONGC ONGC IN PTT PTT TB Gazprom GAZP RM Petrobras PETR4 BZ CNOOCLtd (*) 883 HK PetroChina H (*) 857 HK Sinopec H (*) 386 HK Average A-share PetroChina A (*) 601857 CH Sinopec A (*) 600028 CH Global market summary Highest (Excl A-share) Highest Lowest Average Average (Excl A-share) Price Mkt cap Curr. 29/4/2016 (US$bn) USD GBP GBP USD EUR 88.01 18.13 3.82 102.92 45.12 365.3 212.7 104.1 194.0 127.0 15A P/E (x) 16E 17E 21.0 9.4 10.3 22.1 12.6 15.1 P/B (x) 15A 16E 17E 2.1 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.9 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 2.1 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.9 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 2.1 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.9 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 15A 16E 17E 15A Div. Yield 16E 17E 15A ROE 16E 17E
23.0 37.3 10.7 16.4 10.9 23.0 28.3 82.9 12.2 17.7 17.0 35.5
9.6 11.5 8.4 3.3% 3.4% 3.5% 9.3% 6.1% 9.7% 7.0 6.3 4.7 10.4% 10.2% 10.1% 4.3% 5.9% 9.9% 6.0 6.6 5.1 10.4% 10.3% 10.1% 4.4% 2.8% 7.5% 8.0 9.0 6.1 4.2% 4.2% 4.3% 4.0% 1.2% 3.8% 6.3 7.8 6.0 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 10.6% 7.2% 9.9% 7.4 8.2 6.0 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.5% 4.7% 8.2% 5.2 10.8 12.2 6.0 9.3 9.6 7.6 6.5 4.7 15.4 8.1 16.8 10.1 6.2 5.4 14.2 8.4 17.6 9.5 11.0 6.6 5.7% 5.6% 5.6% 6.1% 2.1% 2.1% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 8.4% 6.4% 6.3% 4.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 5.1% 3.5% 3.5% 1.4% -3.1% 0.5% 5.6% -5.2% -5.5% -0.3% 0.9% -7.7% -1.8% 2.8% -5.0% -8.5% -1.5% 4.1% -1.1% 4.6% 3.9% -2.5% -6.4% 1.8%
EUR USD USD EUR USD USD
14.40 48.45 76.40 11.76 14.69 60.20
59.4 60.0 58.3 19.2 12.5 19.1
62.3 125.2 23.1 n.m n.m 193.8 460.2 n.m 52.9 9.3 23.8 12.7 n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m 133.0 49.7 56.5 7.8 10.5 10.5 11.6 11.3 10.1 3.4 4.5 3.7 25.6 53.7 6.8 12.1 9.0 n.m 25.6 149.3 275.2 11.3 7.5 22.1 13.8 35.2 55.4 38.7 218.9 402.9 12.6 8.3 22.6 460.2 149.3 275.2 460.2 218.9 402.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 42.5 47.0 61.8 44.7 38.1 42.9
INR THB RUB BRL HKD HKD HKD
216.85 303.00 164.75 10.36 9.89 5.92 5.60
27.9 24.7 60.5 45.8 56.9 204.4 109.2
4.1 4.7 4.8 6.1 5.6 5.2 3.3 4.0 3.7 6.9 7.0 5.6 3.9 3.3 11.1 5.6 8.9 9.2 4.0 3.3 5.1 4.8 5.3 6.4 6.9 10.2 10.5 5.1 4.2 5.9
4.5% 3.6% 3.7% 13.3% 9.3% 8.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.9% 10.8% 10.0% 10.3% 4.2% 5.1% 5.1% 9.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.5% 5.6% 7.1% 2.2% 2.4% 5.2% 2.8% 3.7% 0.0% 7.4% 9.3% -7.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 3.0% 0.5% 0.3% 3.5% 5.3% 1.8% 6.2% 8.6% 3.3% 4.2% 4.1% 3.3% 7.4% 6.9% 4.1% 1.2% 3.2% 1.2% 4.8% 1.2% 1.8% 3.0% 6.2% 0.5% 8.6% 0.3% 3.3%
RMB RMB
7.53 4.93
204.4 91.2
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.1 2.1 0.0 0.9 0.9 2.1 2.1 0.0 0.9 0.9 2.1 2.1 0.0 0.9 0.9
12.2 17.6 11.1 10.4% 10.3% 10.1% 13.3% 10.0% 10.3% 12.2 17.6 11.1 10.4% 10.3% 10.1% 13.3% 10.0% 10.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% -5.5% -8.5% -7.6% 6.5 8.1 6.6 4.9% 4.4% 4.0% 4.4% 3.3% 4.1% 6.5 8.1 6.4 5.2% 4.6% 4.3% 4.4% 3.2% 4.3%
Note: (*) uses CICC forecasts and all others use market consensus. Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 5

CICC Research
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中国石油股份(00857)Loss expected but OCF surprisingly strong

发布机构:中金公司
报告类型:公司报告 发布日期:2016/4/29
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Equity Research
April 29, 2016
PetroChina Loss expected but OCF surprisingly strong Results Review 1Q16 loss expected, but OCF surprisingly strong 1Q16 revenue down 14% YoY and 16% QoQ to Rmb353bn. Net loss was Rmb14bn, vs. net profit of Rmb6.2bn in 1Q15. However OCF was surprisingly up 108% YoY and only down 2% QoQ to Rmb61bn. FCF even turned positive to Rmb10bn from -Rmb24bn in 1Q15, after cutting capex by 25% YoY and 12% QoQ to Rmb51bn. Net debt at end-1Q16 down 3% to Rmb464bn with net gearing at 40%. Realized price down 44% YoY and 29% QoQ to US$27.3/bbl for crude, and down 22% YoY and 12% QoQ to US$4.89/mcf (~Rmb0.9/cm) in 1Q16. E&P EBIT loss widened to Rmb20bn, from a profit of Rmb17bn in 1Q15. Refining EBIT was Rmb12bn, much better than a loss of Rmb3.8bn in 1Q15. Marketing EBIT down 11% QoQ to Rmb0.4bn but still better than a loss of Rmb2.6bn in 1Q15. Chemicals EBIT were Rmb3.1bn from losses of Rmb1.3bn in 1Q15. Gas and pipeline EBIT down 36% YoY and 82% QoQ to Rmb4.7bn. 1Q16 production up 1% YoY to 243mmbbl for crude, and up 5% YoY to 891bcf (~25bcm) for gas. Overseas output up 22% YoY to 59mmboe. Lifting costs down 8% YoY to ~US$12/bbl while the all-in cost down 11% to US$41/bbl. Trends to watch Pipeline restructuring and a new gas strategy. PetroChina may increase direct sales with a more flexible pricing strategy to spur gas demand from power and chemical sectors. Meanwhile, part of city gate prices may be lifted. Further restructuring of pipeline assets may contribute to more cash inflows. Earnings forecast Maintain 2016/17 EPS at Rmb0.03/Rmb0.02. Valuation and recommendation Maintain HOLD for A-/H-share. Keep TP at Rmb7.5 (1.2x 2016e P/B) for A-share and HK$6 (0.8x 2016e P/B) for H-share. Risks Oil prices; policy risks; SOE reform; reviews on RP transaction. Ticker CICC investment rating Last close CICC target 52wk price range Market cap (bn) Daily value (mn) Shares outstanding (mn) Free float (%) Daily volume (mn sh) Business sector
Maintain HOLD 601857.SH HOLD Rmb7.53 Rmb7.50 Rmb14.04~6.99 Rmb1,324 Rmb317.30 183,021 88 41.54
00857.HK HOLD HK$5.92 HK$6.00 HK$10.01~4.16 HK$1,580 HK$576.41 183,021 12 107.74 Oil & Gas
115 Relative Value (%) 100 85 70 55 40 Apr-2015
00857.HK
HSCEI
Jul-2015
Oct-2015
Jan-2016
Apr-2016
(Rmb mn) Revenue
2014A
2015A
2016E
2017E 1,648,642
2,282,962 1,725,428 1,670,881
(+/-) Net profit
1.1% 107,172
-24.4% 35,517
-3.2% 6,295
-1.3% 3,420
(+/-) EPS BPS DPS CPS P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Dividend yield ROAA ROAE
-17.3% 0.59 6.42 0.26 1.95 8.1 0.7 4.2 5.6% 4.5% 9.3%
-66.9% 0.19 6.45 0.09 1.43 25.6 0.8 5.5 1.8% 1.5% 3.0%
-82.3% 0.03 6.39 0.09 1.10 149.3 0.8 8.2 1.7% 0.3% 0.5%
-45.7% 0.02 6.32 0.09 0.93 275.2 0.8 8.6 1.7% 0.1% 0.3%
Source: Wind, Bloomberg, company data, CICC Research
Bin GUAN bin.guan@cicc.com.cn SAC Reg. No.: S0080511080005 SFC CE Ref: AGL097
Miaozi WANG vivian.wang@cicc.com.cn SAC Reg. No.: S0080115080056 SFC CE Ref: BFJ414
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report

CICC Research: April 29, 2016 Financial summary Financial statement (Rmb mn) Income statement Revenue Other ops income (expense) Operating profit Finance costs Other income (expense) Profit before income tax Income tax Minority interest Net profit EBITDA Recurrent net income Balance sheet Cash and bank balances Trade and bill receivables Inventories Other current assets Total current assets Fixed assets and CIP Intangible assets and others Total non-current assets Total assets Short-term borrowings Trade and bill payables Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term borrowings Total non-current liabilities Total liabilities Share capital Retained profit Equity Total liabilities & equity Cash flow statement Pretax profit Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Others Cash flow from operations Capital expenditure Others Cash flow from investing Equity financing Bank borrowings Others Cash flow from financing Foreign exchange gain (loss) Net changes in cash 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2,282,962 1,725,428 1,670,881 1,648,642 2,113,129 1,646,176 1,646,971 1,630,447 169,833 -24,036 0 156,759 -37,731 -11,856 107,172 347,296 107,172 73,778 53,104 165,977 98,449 391,308 266,474 79,252 -22,941 0 57,815 -15,726 -6,572 35,517 282,127 35,517 72,773 52,262 126,877 97,432 349,344 259,595 23,910 -16,470 0 8,869 -1,951 -623 6,295 6,295 63,339 41,772 75,031 18,194 -14,804 0 4,819 -1,060 -338 3,420 3,420 77,121 41,216 74,370
Financial ratios Growth ability Revenue Operating profit EBITDA Net profit Profitability Operating margin EBITDA margin Net margin Liquidity Current ratio Quick ratio Cash ratio Liabilities / assets Net debt / equity Return RoA RoE Per-share data EPS (Rmb) BPS (Rmb) DPS (Rmb) Cash flow per share (Rmb) Valuation P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Dividend yield
2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 1.1% -10.0% -1.3% -17.3% 7.4% 15.2% 4.7% 0.67 0.39 0.13 45.2% 35.3% 4.5% 9.3% 0.59 6.42 0.26 1.95 8.1 0.7 4.2 5.6% -24.4% -53.3% -18.8% -66.9% 4.6% 16.4% 2.1% 0.74 0.47 0.15 43.9% 34.8% 1.5% 3.0% 0.19 6.45 0.09 1.43 25.6 0.8 5.5 1.8% -3.2% -69.8% -32.2% -82.3% 1.4% 11.4% 0.4% 0.49 0.29 0.10 43.3% 34.9% 0.3% 0.5% 0.03 6.39 0.09 1.10 149.3 0.8 8.2 1.7% -1.3% -23.9% -2.3% -45.7% 1.1% 11.3% 0.2% 0.49 0.30 0.12 44.4% 37.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.02 6.32 0.09 0.93 275.2 0.8 8.6 1.7%
191,179 186,746
126,690 125,419 306,831 318,126 261,024 262,453
1,747,691 1,784,905 1,786,173 1,797,148 2,014,165 2,044,500 2,047,197 2,059,601 2,405,473 2,393,844 2,354,028 2,377,727 169,128 364,060 46,641 579,829 370,301 507,863 183,021 992,873 106,226 331,040 34,141 471,407 434,475 578,403 183,021 996,695 276,569 301,241 316,725 313,548 28,795 28,239 622,089 643,028 253,042 268,027 396,970 411,955 183,021 183,021 987,007 974,445
1,087,692 1,049,810 1,019,059 1,054,983
1,175,894 1,179,716 1,170,028 1,157,466 2,405,473 2,393,844 2,354,028 2,377,727 156,759 189,499 41,504 -31,285 356,477 15,713 0 43,800 -88,112 -44,312 1,044 22,371 57,815 212,483 13,674 -22,660 261,312 1,871 0 1,272 -46,711 -45,439 -999 -1,005 8,869 13,417 3,876 4,819 -1,246 -9,824
174,485 175,769
200,648 169,517 0 0 -11,090 -15,983 -27,073 0 -9,434 0 0 39,658 -15,983 23,675 0 13,783
-306,551 -217,750 -183,009 -179,409 -290,838 -215,879 -183,009 -179,409
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Company description PetroChina is one of the world’s biggest integrated oil & gas companies, and is involved in oil & gas exploration and production, refining, refined oil marketing, petrochemical products, natural gas pipeline transmission and marketing. The company has leading advantages in upstream E&P and long distance natural gas pipeline transmission in China. In 2014, the company produced 950mn barrels of crude oil and 90.9bn cubic meters of natural gas; 10% of its total oil and gas production is overseas. The company’s processing capacity is 1.2bn barrels of crude oil and 5.1 megatons of ethylene cracking. It markets 120 megatons of refined oil in China, operates ~20,000 gas stations and >70,000km oil & natural gas pipelines. PetroChina produces 50% of China’s crude oil and 70% of its natural gas output; it also has 30%/40% shares in the petrochemical/refined oil markets.
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 2

CICC Research: April 29, 2016 Figure 1: Results review (Rmb bn) Revenue Operating profit Net profit Fully-diluted EPS (Rmb) Operating margin Net margin Source: Company data, CICC Research
1Q15 410 14 6 0.03 3.4% 1.5%
2Q15 467 33 19 0.11 7.1% 4.1%
3Q15 427 16 5 0.03 3.8% 1.2%
4Q15 420 16 5 0.03 3.8% 1.2%
1Q16 353 -3 -14 -0.08 -0.8% -3.9%
YoY -14% n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m
QoQ -16% n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m
2016E 1,671 24 6 0.03 1.4% 0.4%
1Q as % of FY16 21.1% n.m n.m n.m
Figure 2: Operating data review 1Q15 E&P US$/Rmb HK$/Rmb WTI Brent Realized crude price Wellhead gas price Crude oil output Domestic Oversea Natural gas output Domestic Oversea Oil&gas output Domestic Oversea Refining Refinery throughput Major refinery output Gasoline output Diesel output Kerosene output Marketing Sales of major refinery products Chemicals Ethylene output Synthetic resins Synthetic rubbers Urea Synthetic fiber and polymer 6.24 0.80 48.6 53.9 48.9 6.24 239 199 40 851 798 53 381 332 49 253.5 23.3 7.8 14.3 1.3 37.7 1,263 2,093 194 526 323 2Q15 6.12 0.79 59.8 62.3 60.6 6.6 238 203 35 699 648 51 355 311 44 242.2 23.1 8.2 13.7 1.3 40.1 966 1,638 126 680 325 3Q15 6.30 0.81 45.1 48.4 44.3 6.39 245 204 41 739 682 57 369 318 51 246.0 22.3 7.9 13.0 1.5 41.5 1,366 2,167 192 582 341 4Q15 6.38 0.83 43.27 45.10 38.3 5.56 249 200 49 842 776 67 389 330 60 256.4 23.1 8.4 13.2 1.5 40.8 1,437 2,317 201 778 359 1Q16 QoQ 6.54 0.84 33.45 33.94 27.3 4.89 243 194 48 891 825 66 391 332 59 3% 1% -23% -25% -29% -12% -3% -3% -1% 6% 6% 0% 0% 1% -1% YoY 5% 4% -31% -37% -44% -22% 1% -3% 21% 5% 3% 26% 3% 0% 22% 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 HoH YoY 2014 6.16 0.79 93.2 99.0 94.8 6.28 946 823 122 3,029 2,879 150 1,450 1,303 147 2015 YoY 6.28 2% 0.81 1% 48.7 -48% 52.4 -47% 47.9 -50% 6.18 -2% 972 3% 807 -2% 166 35% 3,131 3% 2,904 1% 227 52% 1,494 3% 1,291 -1% 204 38% -1% -1% 5% -6% 26% 0% 1% 3% -4% -4% 4%
US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/mcf mmbbl mmbbl mmbbl bcf bcf bcf mmboe mmboe mmboe mmbbl mn tonne mn tonne mn tonne mn tonne mmton Thousand tonne Thousand tonne Thousand tonne Thousand tonne Thousand tonne
6.17 6.16 6.22 6.34 2% 3% 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.82 4% 3% 100.9 85.5 53.2 44.2 -17% -48% 100.9 97.0 58.0 46.7 -19% -52% 100.1 89.7 54.7 41.2 -25% -54% 6.4 6.2 6.4 5.9 -7% -4% 466 480 478 495 4% 3% 409 414 402 405 1% -2% 56 66 75 90 20% 36% 1,496 1,533 1,550 1,581 2% 3% 1,431 1,449 1,446 1,458 1% 1% 65 85 104 124 19% 46% 715 736 736 758 3% 3% 648 655 643 648 1% -1% 67 80 93 111 19% 38%
247.2 -4% 22.3 -4% 9.0 7% 12.0 -9% 1.0 -31% 37.1 -9%
-2% 500.0 510.6 495.7 502.4 -4% 46.0 46.7 46.5 45.5 16% 15.6 15.1 16.0 16.3 -16% 28.4 29.2 27.9 26.2 -24% 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 -2% 75.2 85.7 77.8 82.3
1% -2% 1,010.6 998.1 -2% -3% 92.7 91.9 2% 8% 30.7 32.3 -6% -10% 57.6 54.1 12% 26% 4.4 5.5 6% -4% 160.9 160.1 4,976 7,951 745 2,663 1,293 5,032 8,215 713 2,566 1,348
1,421 -1% 2,335 1% 191 -5% 650 -16% 371 3%
13% 2,395 2,581 2,229 2,803 12% 3,884 4,067 3,731 4,484 -2% 354 391 320 393 24% 1,525 1,138 1,206 1,360 15% 623 670 648 700
26% 9% 20% 10% 23% 1% 13% 20% 8% 4%
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 3

CICC Research: April 29, 2016 Figure 3: Segment EBIT 2016 WTI Brent Realized crude price Segment EBIT E&P Refining Chemical Marketing NG&P Corp Total NPAT EPS DPS 2015 WTI Brent Realized crude price Segment EBIT E&P Refining Chemical Marketing NG&P Corp Total NPAT EPS US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/bbl Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb Rmb 1Q 33.5 33.9 27.3 -20.3 11.5 3.1 0.4 4.7 -2.2 -2.7 -13.8 -0.08 1Q 48.6 53.9 48.9 17.3 -3.8 -1.3 -2.6 7.4 -3.1 13.9 6.2 0.03 2Q n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 2Q 59.8 62.3 60.6 15.6 9.3 0.4 5.4 7.5 -5.0 33.2 19.3 0.11 3Q n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 3Q 45.1 48.4 44.3 13.6 -3.9 2.3 -3.8 10.5 -2.5 16.2 5.2 0.03 4Q n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 4Q 43.3 45.1 38.3 -12.6 3.0 -1.2 0.5 25.8 0.3 15.9 3.4 0.03 QoQ -23% -25% -29% n.m. 281% n.m -11% -82% n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m QoQ -4% -7% -14% n.m n.m n.m n.m 146% n.m -2% -35% -10% YoY -31% -37% -44% n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. -36% n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. YoY -41% -41% -48% -131% -131% -76% -109% 564% -157% -33% -79% -69%
US$/bbl US$/bbl US$/bbl Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb bn Rmb
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Figure 4: All-in costs E&P segment Sales EBIT Total costs Production All-in cost 1Q14 Rmb mn Rmb mn Rmb mn mmboe Rmb/boe US$/boe 202,625 52,710 149,915 363 413 68 2Q14 196,741 49,789 146,952 352 418 67 3Q14 192,370 43,455 148,915 351 424 69 4Q14 185,838 46,760 139,078 385 361 59 1Q15 125,452 17,299 108,153 381 284 45 2Q15 120,426 15,618 104,808 355 295 48 3Q15 117,744 13,596 104,148 369 283 45 4Q15 111,790 -12,552 124,342 389 319 50 1Q16 83,744 -20,268 104,012 391 266 41 QoQ YoY
-25% n.m -16% 0% -17% -19%
-33% n.m -4% 3% -6% -11%
Source: Company data, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 4

CICC Research: April 29, 2016 Figure 5: P/E and P/B bands 25 20 HK$ PetroChina-H forward P/E 15 12 HK$ PetroChina-H forward P/B
15 10 5
9 6 3
0 0 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Price .8 x 1.0 x 1.2 x 1.4 x Price 10.0 x 15.0 x 20.0 x 25.0 x Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CICC Research
Figure 6: Valuations of comparables Bloomberg code Super Majors ExxonMobil XOM US Royal Dutch Shell RDSA LN BP BP/ LN Chevron Texaco CVX US TotalFinaElf FP FP Average Majors ENI ENI IM ConocoPhillips COP US Occidental OXY US Repsol YPF REP SM Marathon MRO US Hess Corp HES US Average Emerging market oils ONGC ONGC IN PTT PTT TB Gazprom GAZP RM Petrobras PETR4 BZ CNOOCLtd (*) 883 HK PetroChina H (*) 857 HK Sinopec H (*) 386 HK Average A-share PetroChina A (*) 601857 CH Sinopec A (*) 600028 CH Global market summary Highest (Excl A-share) Highest Lowest Average Average (Excl A-share) Price Mkt cap Curr. 29/4/2016 (US$bn) USD GBP GBP USD EUR 88.01 18.13 3.82 102.92 45.12 365.3 212.7 104.1 194.0 127.0 15A P/E (x) 16E 17E 21.0 9.4 10.3 22.1 12.6 15.1 P/B (x) 15A 16E 17E 2.1 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.9 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 2.1 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.9 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 2.1 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.9 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 15A 16E 17E 15A Div. Yield 16E 17E 15A ROE 16E 17E
23.0 37.3 10.7 16.4 10.9 23.0 28.3 82.9 12.2 17.7 17.0 35.5
9.6 11.5 8.4 3.3% 3.4% 3.5% 9.3% 6.1% 9.7% 7.0 6.3 4.7 10.4% 10.2% 10.1% 4.3% 5.9% 9.9% 6.0 6.6 5.1 10.4% 10.3% 10.1% 4.4% 2.8% 7.5% 8.0 9.0 6.1 4.2% 4.2% 4.3% 4.0% 1.2% 3.8% 6.3 7.8 6.0 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 10.6% 7.2% 9.9% 7.4 8.2 6.0 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.5% 4.7% 8.2% 5.2 10.8 12.2 6.0 9.3 9.6 7.6 6.5 4.7 15.4 8.1 16.8 10.1 6.2 5.4 14.2 8.4 17.6 9.5 11.0 6.6 5.7% 5.6% 5.6% 6.1% 2.1% 2.1% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 8.4% 6.4% 6.3% 4.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 5.1% 3.5% 3.5% 1.4% -3.1% 0.5% 5.6% -5.2% -5.5% -0.3% 0.9% -7.7% -1.8% 2.8% -5.0% -8.5% -1.5% 4.1% -1.1% 4.6% 3.9% -2.5% -6.4% 1.8%
EUR USD USD EUR USD USD
14.40 48.45 76.40 11.76 14.69 60.20
59.4 60.0 58.3 19.2 12.5 19.1
62.3 125.2 23.1 n.m n.m 193.8 460.2 n.m 52.9 9.3 23.8 12.7 n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m n.m 133.0 49.7 56.5 7.8 10.5 10.5 11.6 11.3 10.1 3.4 4.5 3.7 25.6 53.7 6.8 12.1 9.0 n.m 25.6 149.3 275.2 11.3 7.5 22.1 13.8 35.2 55.4 38.7 218.9 402.9 12.6 8.3 22.6 460.2 149.3 275.2 460.2 218.9 402.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 42.5 47.0 61.8 44.7 38.1 42.9
INR THB RUB BRL HKD HKD HKD
216.85 303.00 164.75 10.36 9.89 5.92 5.60
27.9 24.7 60.5 45.8 56.9 204.4 109.2
4.1 4.7 4.8 6.1 5.6 5.2 3.3 4.0 3.7 6.9 7.0 5.6 3.9 3.3 11.1 5.6 8.9 9.2 4.0 3.3 5.1 4.8 5.3 6.4 6.9 10.2 10.5 5.1 4.2 5.9
4.5% 3.6% 3.7% 13.3% 9.3% 8.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.9% 10.8% 10.0% 10.3% 4.2% 5.1% 5.1% 9.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.5% 5.6% 7.1% 2.2% 2.4% 5.2% 2.8% 3.7% 0.0% 7.4% 9.3% -7.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 3.0% 0.5% 0.3% 3.5% 5.3% 1.8% 6.2% 8.6% 3.3% 4.2% 4.1% 3.3% 7.4% 6.9% 4.1% 1.2% 3.2% 1.2% 4.8% 1.2% 1.8% 3.0% 6.2% 0.5% 8.6% 0.3% 3.3%
RMB RMB
7.53 4.93
204.4 91.2
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.1 2.1 0.0 0.9 0.9 2.1 2.1 0.0 0.9 0.9 2.1 2.1 0.0 0.9 0.9
12.2 17.6 11.1 10.4% 10.3% 10.1% 13.3% 10.0% 10.3% 12.2 17.6 11.1 10.4% 10.3% 10.1% 13.3% 10.0% 10.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% -5.5% -8.5% -7.6% 6.5 8.1 6.6 4.9% 4.4% 4.0% 4.4% 3.3% 4.1% 6.5 8.1 6.4 5.2% 4.6% 4.3% 4.4% 3.2% 4.3%
Note: (*) uses CICC forecasts and all others use market consensus. Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CICC Research
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 5

CICC Research
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Explanation of stock ratings: “Conviction BUY” indicates analyst perceives absolute return of 30% or more over the next 6~12 months; “BUY” absolute return of 20% or more; “HOLD” between +20% and -10%; “SELL” -10% and below; “Conviction SELL” -20% and below. Asterisk denotes non-directional rating change: coverage initiation or resumption, addition to or removal from Conviction BUY/SELL rating level. Explanation of sector ratings: Analyst expects a sector rated “OVERWEIGHT” to outperform the market by 10% or more over the next 6~12 months, “EQUAL-WEIGHT” to end up between 10% below and 10% above the market, and “UNDERWEIGHT” to fall behind the market by 10% or more, over the next 6~12 months. Copyright of this report belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation is prohibited without CICC’s written permission. V150902 Editing: Wanbo ZHOU

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