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Morning Research Focus

国泰君安


Research Department
Morning Research Focus 11 January 2017
Table of Contents ? ?
目录 行业和公司焦点
Industry and Company Focus
Powerlong Real Estate (01238 HK): Contracted Sales Increased 23.3% YoY to RMB17.642 Bn During 2016 宝龙地产(01238 HK):2016 年月合约销售同比升 23.3%至 176.42 亿元人民币
?
Latest Reports Company Name 公司名称 Code 代码
最新报告摘要 Title 标题 TP 目标价 Chg 变动 Rating 评级 Chg 变动 EPS Est. Change? 盈利预测 是否改变
? Gaming Sector 博彩业
Sector Report: Recovery Continues, "Outperform" 行业报告:恢复持续, “跑赢大市”
---
Outperform 跑赢大市
---
N 否
?
Newly Published Key Economic Data for China, US and Europe 重要经济数据
中美欧最新公布的
Appendices:Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports. 后附:行业和公司焦点,最新报告摘要中文版。
HSI Performance 29,000 16,000
HSCEI Performance
27,000 14,000
25,000 12,000 23,000 10,000 21,000
8,000 19,000 6,000 Jan/16 Apr/16 Jul/16 Oct/16 Jan/17 Jan/16 Apr/16 Jul/16 Oct/16 Jan/17
17,000
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Research Focus
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 1 of 7

Industry and Company Focus Powerlong Real Estate (01238 HK): Contracted Sales Increased 23.3% YoY to RMB17.642 Bn During 2016 Analyst: Van Liu ?
What happened: Powerlong Real Estate (“the Company”) has announced its Dec. contracted sales as follows: Currency (Bn RMB) YoY 54.9% 34.8% MoM 77.9% 47.1% Jan. - Dec. Contracted GFA Sold Dec. Contracted GFA Sold Unit (sq.m) 198,890 YoY 14.9% MoM 21.0%
Dec. Contracted Sales Dec. Contracted ASP (RMB/sq.m) Jan. - Dec. Contracted Sales Jan. - Dec. Contracted ASP (RMB/sq.m) Source: the Company.
2.841 14,284
17.642
23.3%
n.a.
1,468,459
-4.1%
n.a.
12,014
28.7%
n.a.
?
Comments and Views: Contracted sales in Dec. 2016 represented a 54.9% YoY increase and a 77.9% MoM increase, which is in line with our expectations. The Company has achieved 117.6% of its 2016 annual sales target. The policies related to the property market have tightened in tier-1, partier tier-2 and tier-3 cities. Thus, property markets in some cities are expected to be curbed. Nevertheless, we still think that the Company’s contracted sales will maintain a stable growth due to its numerous saleable resources in Shanghai. Investment suggestion: The Company shifted its focus to Shanghai and 2nd tier cities and we think the strategy is promising. In addition, the Company’s commercial properties portfolio is sizable and is still expanding, which will lead to strong rental income growth. The Company’s current investment rating is “Accumulate” and the target price is HK$2.86, which represents a 33% discount to its 2017E NAV and also implies 5.1x 2017 underlying PER and 0.4x 2017 PBR.
?
Research Focus
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 2 of 7

Latest Reports Sector Report: Gaming Sector: Recovery Continues, "Outperform" Rating: Analyst: Summary ? Although Macau's total GGR declined by 3.3% in 2016, a recovery trend is underway. GGR increased YoY in each month from August through December 2016. December GGR increased 8.0% YoY and was up 5.5% MoM. The recovery trend began in August 2016 when GGR saw the first YoY increase since May 2014, ending 26 months of consecutive decreases; December marks the fifth consecutive month with YoY increase in GGR. In 2016, for the five months from August through December, total GGR increased by 7.8% YoY, compared to GGR YoY decrease of 10.5% for the first seven months of the year. We forecast a 14.4% increase in Macau's 2017 total GGR, mainly due to very low comparables in 1H16. We expect Macau GGR revenue to continue to gradually recover with low single-digit MoM increases of just 1.1% on average during 2017. Although our MoM growth forecasts are not aggressive, in our view, they result in a seemingly high growth forecast of 14.4% for 2017, but this is mostly the result of having very low comparable amounts in 1H16. We expect Macau Gaming to "Outperform" in 2017, and recommend to "Buy" Melco Crown (MPEL US) and Wynn Macau (01128 HK) with TPs of US$22.00 and HK$15.20, respectively. Sector valuations have retreated, making now a good entry point, in our view. We also recommend to "Accumulate" MGM China (02282 HK) with TP of HK$17.60. We are "Neutral" on Sands China (01928 HK) and have a "Reduce" rating on Galaxy Entertainment (00027 HK). Outperform Noah Hudson 6-18m TP: n.a. 2017-01-10 Report Date:
?
?
Newly Published Key Economic Data for China, US and Europe (David Liu) 中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据 Country 国家 Indicator 指标名称
(刘静骁) Data Period 数据期间 Current Value 当期值 MoM / QoQ 环比变动 YoY 同比变动 Market Consensus 市场一致预期
China 中国 China 中国 %
CPI (yoy) CPI同比增速 PPI (yoy) PPI同比增速
December 12 月 December 12 月
2.1%
(0.2)ppts
0.5ppts
2.2%
5.5%
2.2ppts
11.4ppts
4.6%
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, Bloomberg.
数据来源:中国国家统计局、彭博。
Research Focus
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 3 of 7

Chinese Translation 中文翻译 行业和公司焦点
宝龙地产(01238 HK):2016 年月合约销售同比升 23.3%至 176.42 亿元人民币 分析员:刘斐凡 ?
事件描述:宝龙地产(“公司”)公布了 12 月合约销售情况,如下: 货币单位 (十亿人民 币) 单位 (平方 米) 12 月合约销 售面积 198,890
同比
环比
同比
环比
12 月合约销售额 12 月合约销售均 价(人民币/平方 米) 1-12 月合约销售 额 1-12 月合约销售 均价(人民币/平 方米) 资料来源:公司。
2.841
54.9%
77.9%
14.9%
21.0%
14,284
34.8%
47.1%
17.642
23.3%
n.a.
1-12 月合约 销售面积
1,468,459
-4.1%
n.a.
12,014
28.7%
n.a.
?
观点评论:合约销售在 2016 年 12 月同比上升 54.9%,环比上升 77.9%,符合我们的预期。公司完成了 其 2016 年全年销售目标的 117.6%。房地产行业的政策已经在一线城市和部分二三线城市收紧。因而,预 计一些城市的房地产市场将会被抑制。尽管如此,因为其拥有大量在上海的可售资源,我们仍然相信公司 的合约销售将保持稳定增长。
?
投资建议:公司将其焦点转移到上海和二线城市,这应是一个合适的策略。此外,公司的商业物业组合相 当庞大且仍在增长,这将会导致强劲的租金收入增长。公司目前投资评级为“收集”,目标价为 2.86 港元, 相当于 2017 年 NAV 有 33%的折让,也相当于 5.1 倍 2017 年的核心市盈率和 0.4 倍 2017 年的市净率。
Research Focus
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 4 of 7

最新报告
行业报告:博彩业:恢复持续, “跑赢大市” 评级: 跑赢大市 分析员: Noah Hudson 报告摘要 ? 尽管 2016 年澳门博彩总收入同比下降 3.3%,但复苏的势头已经显现。8 月至 12 月的月度博彩总收入均录得同比增 长。12 月澳门博彩总收入同比增长 8.0%,环比增长 5.5%。2016 年 8 月,博彩总收入实现自 2014 年 5 月以来的首 次同比增长,结束了连续 26 个月的下跌。12 月博彩总收入是连续第 5 个月实现同比增长。2016 年 8 月至 12 月,博 彩总收入同比增长 7.8%,而在 2016 年首 7 个月博彩总收入同比下降 10.5%。 ? 由于 2016 年上半年的比较基数偏低,我们预计澳门 2017 年博彩总收入增长 14.4%。我们预计澳门博彩总收入将继 续逐渐回升,于 2017 年保持平均每个月单位数的 1.1%缓慢增长率。虽然我们对环比增速的预期已经相对保守,折 合后的全年增长率预期仍达到 14.4%,看似较高但主要原因是 2016 年上半年的比较基数偏低。 ? 我们认为,在 2017 年澳门博彩股将“跑赢大市”,建议“买入”新濠博亚(MPEL US)以及永利澳门(01128 HK),目 标价分别为 22.00 美元和 15.20 港元。行业估值回撤,目前创造了较好的入股时机。同时,我们也建议“收集”美高 梅中国(02282 HK), 目标价 17.60 港元。 对于金沙中国 (01928 HK) 我们持 “中性” 评级, 而对银河娱乐 (00027 HK) 我们则持“减持”评级。
6-18m 目标价: 报告日期:
n.a.
2017-01-10
Research Focus
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 5 of 7

Research Department 研究部
Grace Liu


Head of Research, Market Strategy, Petrochemicals Consumer (Hotels), Gaming
主管,市场策略、 石化 消费(酒店)、博彩
liugu@gtjas.com
(852) 2509 7516
Noah Hudson
Noah Hudson
noah.hudson@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976684
Gary Wong
黄家玮
Environmental Protection, Infrastructure Conglomerate, E-commerce
环保、基建
gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 2616
Ray Zhao


综合、电子商务
zhaorui@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976755
Square Chui
徐惠芳
Futures
期货
square.chui@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 2629
Kevin Guo


Raw Materials, Gas
原材料、燃气
kevin.guo@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976671
Ricky Lai
黎柏坚
Telecommunications, Internet
电信、互联网
ricky.lai@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 2603
Dayton Wang
王庆鲁
Insurance, Fixed-income
保险、债券
dayton.wang@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 5347
Richard Cao


Banking
银行
caozhu013592@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976870
Jun Zhu
朱俊杰
Clean Energy, Electric Equipment 清洁能源、电力设备
junjie.zhu@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 7592
Andrew Song


Consumer (Retailing), Home Appliances Property
消费(零售)、 家电 房地产
andrew.song@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 5313
Van Liu
刘斐凡
liufeifan@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976672
Sean Xiang
向宇豪
Machinery, Construction Materials 机械、建材
xiangyuhao@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976725
Terry Hong
洪学宇
Consumer (Apparel)
消费(服装)
hongxueyu@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976722
Johnny Wong
王俊浩
Macroeconomics, Property
宏观、房地产
johnny.wong@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 5348
Toliver Ma
马守彰
Aviation, Automobiles & Components Shipping & Logistics, Ports,
航空、汽车
toliver.ma@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 5317
Spencer Fan
范明
航运物流、港口
fanming@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976686
Barney Wu
吴宇扬
Consumer (Food & Beverage, Household Products) Market Strategy
消费(食品饮料、 日用品) 市场策略
wuyuyang@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976680
Gary Ching
程嘉伟
gary.ching@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 2665
Jake Wang
汪昌江
Research Assistant
研究助理
wangchangjiang@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976675
Wiley Huang
黄重钧
Research Assistant
研究助理
wiley.huang@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 5409
Danny Law
罗沛达
Research Assistant
研究助理
danny.law@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 7768
David Liu
刘静骁
Research Assistant
研究助理
david.liu@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 5441
Kay Mai
麦梓琪
Research Assistant
研究助理
maiziqi@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976685
Gary Yang
杨光
Research Assistant
研究助理
gary.yang@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 2642
Esabella Zhao
赵舒蔓
Research Assistant, Translator
研究助理、翻译员
zhaoshuman013399@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976681
Penny Pan
潘凌蕾
Secretary, Translator
秘书、翻译员
penny.pan@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 2632
Research Focus
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 6 of 7

Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Buy Accumulate Neutral Reduce Sell Definition Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Outperform Neutral Underperform Definition Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.
DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) (2) (3) (4) Except for Shenzhen International Holdings Limited (00152 HK), the Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. Except for SMI Holdings Group Limited (00198 HK), Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (01788 HK), Binhai Investment Company Limited (02886 HK) and Link Holdings Limited (08237 HK), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with China Aoyuan Property (03883 HK) / Modern Land (01107 HK) / Evergrande Real Estate (03333 HK) / China Dredging Environment Protection (00871 HK) / GOME Electrical Appliances (00493 HK) / China Wood Optimization (01885 HK) / Anhui Conch Cement- H shares (00914 HK) / 361 Degrees (01361 HK) / Powerlong Real Estate (01238 HK) / China All Access (00633 HK) / Huaneng Renewables- H shares (00958 HK) / Hengdeli (03389 HK) / Sundart Holdings Ltd. (01568 HK) / Huaneng Power- H shares (00902 HK) / AviChina Industry & Technology- H shares (02357 HK) / China Power (02380 HK) / Sinotruk (03808 HK) / Xiao Nan Guo Restaurants (03666 HK) / SMI Holdings Group (00198 HK) / Chanjet Information Technology- H shares (01588 HK) / Tianyun International (06836 HK) / China U-Ton (06168 HK) / Huishang Bank- H shares (03698 HK) / Bosideng (03998 HK) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. Guotai Junan and its group companies are not making a market in the securities mentioned in this Research Report. Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies.
(5) (6)
DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. © 2017 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-9118 Fax: (852) 2509-7793 Website: www.gtja.com.hk
Research Focus
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 7 of 7

Morning Research Focus

发布机构:国泰君安
报告类型:外行报告 发布日期:2017/1/11
报告评级:
撰写作者:
报告下载:32 文件类型:PDF文档
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内容简介


Research Department
Morning Research Focus 11 January 2017
Table of Contents ? ?
目录 行业和公司焦点
Industry and Company Focus
Powerlong Real Estate (01238 HK): Contracted Sales Increased 23.3% YoY to RMB17.642 Bn During 2016 宝龙地产(01238 HK):2016 年月合约销售同比升 23.3%至 176.42 亿元人民币
?
Latest Reports Company Name 公司名称 Code 代码
最新报告摘要 Title 标题 TP 目标价 Chg 变动 Rating 评级 Chg 变动 EPS Est. Change? 盈利预测 是否改变
? Gaming Sector 博彩业
Sector Report: Recovery Continues, "Outperform" 行业报告:恢复持续, “跑赢大市”
---
Outperform 跑赢大市
---
N 否
?
Newly Published Key Economic Data for China, US and Europe 重要经济数据
中美欧最新公布的
Appendices:Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports. 后附:行业和公司焦点,最新报告摘要中文版。
HSI Performance 29,000 16,000
HSCEI Performance
27,000 14,000
25,000 12,000 23,000 10,000 21,000
8,000 19,000 6,000 Jan/16 Apr/16 Jul/16 Oct/16 Jan/17 Jan/16 Apr/16 Jul/16 Oct/16 Jan/17
17,000
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Research Focus
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 1 of 7

Industry and Company Focus Powerlong Real Estate (01238 HK): Contracted Sales Increased 23.3% YoY to RMB17.642 Bn During 2016 Analyst: Van Liu ?
What happened: Powerlong Real Estate (“the Company”) has announced its Dec. contracted sales as follows: Currency (Bn RMB) YoY 54.9% 34.8% MoM 77.9% 47.1% Jan. - Dec. Contracted GFA Sold Dec. Contracted GFA Sold Unit (sq.m) 198,890 YoY 14.9% MoM 21.0%
Dec. Contracted Sales Dec. Contracted ASP (RMB/sq.m) Jan. - Dec. Contracted Sales Jan. - Dec. Contracted ASP (RMB/sq.m) Source: the Company.
2.841 14,284
17.642
23.3%
n.a.
1,468,459
-4.1%
n.a.
12,014
28.7%
n.a.
?
Comments and Views: Contracted sales in Dec. 2016 represented a 54.9% YoY increase and a 77.9% MoM increase, which is in line with our expectations. The Company has achieved 117.6% of its 2016 annual sales target. The policies related to the property market have tightened in tier-1, partier tier-2 and tier-3 cities. Thus, property markets in some cities are expected to be curbed. Nevertheless, we still think that the Company’s contracted sales will maintain a stable growth due to its numerous saleable resources in Shanghai. Investment suggestion: The Company shifted its focus to Shanghai and 2nd tier cities and we think the strategy is promising. In addition, the Company’s commercial properties portfolio is sizable and is still expanding, which will lead to strong rental income growth. The Company’s current investment rating is “Accumulate” and the target price is HK$2.86, which represents a 33% discount to its 2017E NAV and also implies 5.1x 2017 underlying PER and 0.4x 2017 PBR.
?
Research Focus
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 2 of 7

Latest Reports Sector Report: Gaming Sector: Recovery Continues, "Outperform" Rating: Analyst: Summary ? Although Macau's total GGR declined by 3.3% in 2016, a recovery trend is underway. GGR increased YoY in each month from August through December 2016. December GGR increased 8.0% YoY and was up 5.5% MoM. The recovery trend began in August 2016 when GGR saw the first YoY increase since May 2014, ending 26 months of consecutive decreases; December marks the fifth consecutive month with YoY increase in GGR. In 2016, for the five months from August through December, total GGR increased by 7.8% YoY, compared to GGR YoY decrease of 10.5% for the first seven months of the year. We forecast a 14.4% increase in Macau's 2017 total GGR, mainly due to very low comparables in 1H16. We expect Macau GGR revenue to continue to gradually recover with low single-digit MoM increases of just 1.1% on average during 2017. Although our MoM growth forecasts are not aggressive, in our view, they result in a seemingly high growth forecast of 14.4% for 2017, but this is mostly the result of having very low comparable amounts in 1H16. We expect Macau Gaming to "Outperform" in 2017, and recommend to "Buy" Melco Crown (MPEL US) and Wynn Macau (01128 HK) with TPs of US$22.00 and HK$15.20, respectively. Sector valuations have retreated, making now a good entry point, in our view. We also recommend to "Accumulate" MGM China (02282 HK) with TP of HK$17.60. We are "Neutral" on Sands China (01928 HK) and have a "Reduce" rating on Galaxy Entertainment (00027 HK). Outperform Noah Hudson 6-18m TP: n.a. 2017-01-10 Report Date:
?
?
Newly Published Key Economic Data for China, US and Europe (David Liu) 中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据 Country 国家 Indicator 指标名称
(刘静骁) Data Period 数据期间 Current Value 当期值 MoM / QoQ 环比变动 YoY 同比变动 Market Consensus 市场一致预期
China 中国 China 中国 %
CPI (yoy) CPI同比增速 PPI (yoy) PPI同比增速
December 12 月 December 12 月
2.1%
(0.2)ppts
0.5ppts
2.2%
5.5%
2.2ppts
11.4ppts
4.6%
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, Bloomberg.
数据来源:中国国家统计局、彭博。
Research Focus
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 3 of 7

Chinese Translation 中文翻译 行业和公司焦点
宝龙地产(01238 HK):2016 年月合约销售同比升 23.3%至 176.42 亿元人民币 分析员:刘斐凡 ?
事件描述:宝龙地产(“公司”)公布了 12 月合约销售情况,如下: 货币单位 (十亿人民 币) 单位 (平方 米) 12 月合约销 售面积 198,890
同比
环比
同比
环比
12 月合约销售额 12 月合约销售均 价(人民币/平方 米) 1-12 月合约销售 额 1-12 月合约销售 均价(人民币/平 方米) 资料来源:公司。
2.841
54.9%
77.9%
14.9%
21.0%
14,284
34.8%
47.1%
17.642
23.3%
n.a.
1-12 月合约 销售面积
1,468,459
-4.1%
n.a.
12,014
28.7%
n.a.
?
观点评论:合约销售在 2016 年 12 月同比上升 54.9%,环比上升 77.9%,符合我们的预期。公司完成了 其 2016 年全年销售目标的 117.6%。房地产行业的政策已经在一线城市和部分二三线城市收紧。因而,预 计一些城市的房地产市场将会被抑制。尽管如此,因为其拥有大量在上海的可售资源,我们仍然相信公司 的合约销售将保持稳定增长。
?
投资建议:公司将其焦点转移到上海和二线城市,这应是一个合适的策略。此外,公司的商业物业组合相 当庞大且仍在增长,这将会导致强劲的租金收入增长。公司目前投资评级为“收集”,目标价为 2.86 港元, 相当于 2017 年 NAV 有 33%的折让,也相当于 5.1 倍 2017 年的核心市盈率和 0.4 倍 2017 年的市净率。
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最新报告
行业报告:博彩业:恢复持续, “跑赢大市” 评级: 跑赢大市 分析员: Noah Hudson 报告摘要 ? 尽管 2016 年澳门博彩总收入同比下降 3.3%,但复苏的势头已经显现。8 月至 12 月的月度博彩总收入均录得同比增 长。12 月澳门博彩总收入同比增长 8.0%,环比增长 5.5%。2016 年 8 月,博彩总收入实现自 2014 年 5 月以来的首 次同比增长,结束了连续 26 个月的下跌。12 月博彩总收入是连续第 5 个月实现同比增长。2016 年 8 月至 12 月,博 彩总收入同比增长 7.8%,而在 2016 年首 7 个月博彩总收入同比下降 10.5%。 ? 由于 2016 年上半年的比较基数偏低,我们预计澳门 2017 年博彩总收入增长 14.4%。我们预计澳门博彩总收入将继 续逐渐回升,于 2017 年保持平均每个月单位数的 1.1%缓慢增长率。虽然我们对环比增速的预期已经相对保守,折 合后的全年增长率预期仍达到 14.4%,看似较高但主要原因是 2016 年上半年的比较基数偏低。 ? 我们认为,在 2017 年澳门博彩股将“跑赢大市”,建议“买入”新濠博亚(MPEL US)以及永利澳门(01128 HK),目 标价分别为 22.00 美元和 15.20 港元。行业估值回撤,目前创造了较好的入股时机。同时,我们也建议“收集”美高 梅中国(02282 HK), 目标价 17.60 港元。 对于金沙中国 (01928 HK) 我们持 “中性” 评级, 而对银河娱乐 (00027 HK) 我们则持“减持”评级。
6-18m 目标价: 报告日期:
n.a.
2017-01-10
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Research Department 研究部
Grace Liu


Head of Research, Market Strategy, Petrochemicals Consumer (Hotels), Gaming
主管,市场策略、 石化 消费(酒店)、博彩
liugu@gtjas.com
(852) 2509 7516
Noah Hudson
Noah Hudson
noah.hudson@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976684
Gary Wong
黄家玮
Environmental Protection, Infrastructure Conglomerate, E-commerce
环保、基建
gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 2616
Ray Zhao


综合、电子商务
zhaorui@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976755
Square Chui
徐惠芳
Futures
期货
square.chui@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 2629
Kevin Guo


Raw Materials, Gas
原材料、燃气
kevin.guo@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976671
Ricky Lai
黎柏坚
Telecommunications, Internet
电信、互联网
ricky.lai@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 2603
Dayton Wang
王庆鲁
Insurance, Fixed-income
保险、债券
dayton.wang@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 5347
Richard Cao


Banking
银行
caozhu013592@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976870
Jun Zhu
朱俊杰
Clean Energy, Electric Equipment 清洁能源、电力设备
junjie.zhu@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 7592
Andrew Song


Consumer (Retailing), Home Appliances Property
消费(零售)、 家电 房地产
andrew.song@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 5313
Van Liu
刘斐凡
liufeifan@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976672
Sean Xiang
向宇豪
Machinery, Construction Materials 机械、建材
xiangyuhao@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976725
Terry Hong
洪学宇
Consumer (Apparel)
消费(服装)
hongxueyu@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976722
Johnny Wong
王俊浩
Macroeconomics, Property
宏观、房地产
johnny.wong@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 5348
Toliver Ma
马守彰
Aviation, Automobiles & Components Shipping & Logistics, Ports,
航空、汽车
toliver.ma@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 5317
Spencer Fan
范明
航运物流、港口
fanming@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976686
Barney Wu
吴宇扬
Consumer (Food & Beverage, Household Products) Market Strategy
消费(食品饮料、 日用品) 市场策略
wuyuyang@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976680
Gary Ching
程嘉伟
gary.ching@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 2665
Jake Wang
汪昌江
Research Assistant
研究助理
wangchangjiang@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976675
Wiley Huang
黄重钧
Research Assistant
研究助理
wiley.huang@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 5409
Danny Law
罗沛达
Research Assistant
研究助理
danny.law@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 7768
David Liu
刘静骁
Research Assistant
研究助理
david.liu@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 5441
Kay Mai
麦梓琪
Research Assistant
研究助理
maiziqi@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976685
Gary Yang
杨光
Research Assistant
研究助理
gary.yang@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 2642
Esabella Zhao
赵舒蔓
Research Assistant, Translator
研究助理、翻译员
zhaoshuman013399@gtjas.com
(86755) 23976681
Penny Pan
潘凌蕾
Secretary, Translator
秘书、翻译员
penny.pan@gtjas.com.hk
(852) 2509 2632
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Page 6 of 7

Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Buy Accumulate Neutral Reduce Sell Definition Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Outperform Neutral Underperform Definition Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.
DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) (2) (3) (4) Except for Shenzhen International Holdings Limited (00152 HK), the Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. Except for SMI Holdings Group Limited (00198 HK), Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (01788 HK), Binhai Investment Company Limited (02886 HK) and Link Holdings Limited (08237 HK), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with China Aoyuan Property (03883 HK) / Modern Land (01107 HK) / Evergrande Real Estate (03333 HK) / China Dredging Environment Protection (00871 HK) / GOME Electrical Appliances (00493 HK) / China Wood Optimization (01885 HK) / Anhui Conch Cement- H shares (00914 HK) / 361 Degrees (01361 HK) / Powerlong Real Estate (01238 HK) / China All Access (00633 HK) / Huaneng Renewables- H shares (00958 HK) / Hengdeli (03389 HK) / Sundart Holdings Ltd. (01568 HK) / Huaneng Power- H shares (00902 HK) / AviChina Industry & Technology- H shares (02357 HK) / China Power (02380 HK) / Sinotruk (03808 HK) / Xiao Nan Guo Restaurants (03666 HK) / SMI Holdings Group (00198 HK) / Chanjet Information Technology- H shares (01588 HK) / Tianyun International (06836 HK) / China U-Ton (06168 HK) / Huishang Bank- H shares (03698 HK) / Bosideng (03998 HK) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. Guotai Junan and its group companies are not making a market in the securities mentioned in this Research Report. Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies.
(5) (6)
DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. © 2017 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-9118 Fax: (852) 2509-7793 Website: www.gtja.com.hk
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