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[2008-1-11]海通证券--海利得(002206)产品结构持续优化

002206 14.69 17.76 18.86
2008
01
10
12500 A B /H 3200 0/0
2006 79% d 2008 33% c2009
2
2005 21.44 7.51 24.15 1.26 0.54 2007 IPO
2006 67.20 20.43 26.73 1.22 0.89
2007E 8.61 18.88 23.35 0.85 0.63
2008E 34.81 19.82 14.27 1.19 0.85
2009E 6.37 20.22 13.73 1.29 0.90
2007 54.13% 62.62%
34.40%
28.90%
2004 20.1%
48980 2008 2009 9
2007
2007 0.63 0.85 0.90
14.69
25%
d
Email
d
021-23219378 zhuyin@htsec.com
PE
DCF
d
d
d
21.7% 2007
2007 44.32%
31.1%
2004
39320 14320 / 25000 /
/
2008-2009
2009
17.76
18.86
c c
d
ü
d
d
c
d
d d c
d d d d
d
·
002206
1
1. 2006 2 PVC 1
1
PVC
88.5% 2 2007 1-6 3
2007 91.5%
2007
1-6
2.
2
c   & 93
c
d
d

d

d
d

 &93
d d  
·
002206
2
1 2005 1,589.97 70,576.06 2.25 2006 1,776.81 71,840.60 2.47 2007 1 6 806.44 40,602.29 1.99
2004 2004 5 45 40 35 30 25 20 15
21.7% 2007
31.1% 4 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 2004 2005 2006 2007H1
20.1% %
%
2004
2005
2006
2007H1
3.
2 14320 25000 15,980 33,000 1 1
2008 9
14329 / 25000
2007 / 2008-2009 2009
6-7
d
2007 44.32%
k
d
d
d
d
·
002206
3
6
7
50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 2005
35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00
30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2005
2006
2007E
2008E
2009E
2006
95% 3
Samuel Roche
MBG
4.
c
d
c
2007E 2008E 2009E
d

d
d
d c
d


55000
40.00
35000
90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00
3 37310
18,080 3,000 10,000 6,230 2,010 39,320
·
002206
4
4 2007E 16540 4594 3401 4930 29465 4000 780 4780 2008E 16878 11587 3540 9189 41194 4300 1250 5550 2009E 16878 13398 7389 9727 47392 4500 1600 6100
2008 12500
25
0.63
0.85
0.90
5.
5.1 PE 28-30 17.76 -19.02 2007 2007 30 0.63 EPS
5.2 DCF DCF 5 DCF g( 0.00 20.94 19.50 18.21 17.06 16.03 15.09 14.24 0.50 22.27 20.67 19.24 17.98 16.84 15.82 14.90 1.00 23.78 21.98 20.40 19.00 17.75 16.63 15.62 ) 1.50 25.51 23.47 21.69 20.13 18.75 17.52 16.42 2.00 27.50 25.17 23.16 21.41 19.87 18.51 17.29
18.86
WACC ( )
8.50 9.00 9.50 10.00 10.50 11.00 11.50
PE
DCF
17.76
18.86
d
d
d
d 2007-2009
d
d
d
c
d
·
002206
5
2006 P/E P/B P/S EV/EBITDA 25.42 6.79 2.56 13.27 2006 / 1.33 0.78 6.51 0.80 0.59 0.28 2006 20.43 20.51 10.06 26.73 11.45 15.05 2006 0.33 0.18 0.09 0.58 2006 1.79 21.38 53.62 5.62 67.20
2007E 23.40 5.46 2.11 9.76 2007E 1.29 0.85 6.60 0.80 0.62 0.33 2007E 18.88 18.26 9.00 23.35 10.18 12.59 2007E 0.19 0.10 0.05 0.40 2007E 21.33 11.98 10.71 -8.62 8.61
2008E 17.36 2.48 1.70 5.79 2008E 0.34 0.21 27.16 2.30 1.93 1.31 2008E 19.82 18.24 9.82 14.27 10.63 11.76 2008E 0.19 0.10 0.05 0.50 2008E 23.57 29.88 23.45 23.45 34.81
2009E 16.32 2.24 1.54 4.72 2009E 0.35 0.16 21.14 1.94 1.59 1.27 2009E 20.22 17.91 9.42 13.73 10.20 11.87 2009E 0.17 0.09 0.05 0.59 2009E 10.92 13.18 8.93 8.93 6.37 EBIT EBITDA
2006 71841 57167 14403 1041 3926 9119 10649 4083 14732 0 0 1894 0 7225 0.89 2006 9050 6497 6656 26135 32976 63106 10542 32797 3280 3280 36077 0 27029 20971 3.38 2006 7225 4083 4451 9775 0 -1539 -9910 16909 20992 2130 0 5636 5501 1.22
2007E 87167 70710 16128 1389 4049 9904 11790 4127 15917 0 0 2057 0 7847 0.63 2007E 13450 7146 7322 32097 44976 77073 11596 40187 3280 3280 43467 0 33606 28698 2.69 2007E 7847 4127 5341 10617 7934 7934 -7876 16124 20251 1269 0 1658 4399 0.85
2008E 107715 86362 20947 1888 5004 13919 14555 5094 19650 0 0 3341 0 10579 0.85 2008E 28970 7861 8054 50702 48796 99498 12756 22087 3280 3280 25367 0 74131 15789 5.93 2008E 10579 5094 19316 14922 27628 27628 -27570 -14728 -9633 -6840 36725 28168 15520 1.19
2009E 119477 95319 23708 2304 5550 15004 15854 5549 21403 0 0 3751 0 11253 0.90 2009E 31977 8647 8859 48765 61568 110333 14031 25093 3280 3280 28373 0 81960 12876 6.56 2009E 11253 5549 -14440 16085 9446 9446 -9388 38651 44200 -2913 0 -3689 3007 1.29
EBIT EBITDA
·
002206
6
2008 78 85 70 0 1 234
1
10 19 14 11 0 0 15
c d
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
15 5 -5 -5 -15 15 5 -15
5 5 5 5
d
c
d
c
c
c
c
d
c
d d c c d d c d d d d
·
002206
7
021 63411619 wangym@htsec.com
021 63411586 gaodd@htsec.com
021 23219439 skwu@htsec.com
021 23219403 luying@htsec.com
021 23219422 kljiang@htsec.com
021 23219409 chenmf@htsec.com
021 23219399 yezg@htsec.com
021 23219405 dingpin@htsec.com
021 23219402 zhangluan@htsec.com
021 23219404 dengyong@htsec.com
021 23219452 guqing@htsec.com
021 23219395 lianmk@htsec.com
021 23219421 liujin@htsec.com
021 23219408 maying@htsec.com
021 23219420 ymniu@htsec.com
021 23219413 qiucc@htsec.com
021 23219396 qiuzc@htsec.com
021 23219412 zhanwh@htsec.com
021 23219423 zhaot@htsec.com
021 23219411 longh@htsec.com
021 23219391 liuyq@htsec.com
021 23219389 panhw@htsec.com
021 23219401 shuaih@htsec.com
021 23219407 wangyh@htsec.com
021 23219390 wangs@htsec.com
021 23219436 xiey@htsec.com
021 23219414 yanp@htsec.com
021 23219406 yanghj@htsec.com
021 23219397 yelf@htsec.com
021 23219416 zhour@htsec.com
021 23219382 fankx@htsec.com
021 23219434 lml@htsec.com
021 23219435 chenl@htsec.com
021 23219433 zrchen@htsec.com
021 23219438 chenyong@htsec.com
021 23219432 wanghui@htsec.com
021 23219431 yujg@htsec.com
021 23219393 chenjiuhong@htsec.com
021 23219387 wuyiping@htsec.com
·
002206
8
021 23219440 huangzf@htsec.com
021 23219442 zhangdy@htsec.com
021 23219450 loujing@htsec.com
021 23219472 huqian@htsec.com
021 23219445 jiangjx@htsec.com
021 23219424 zqyong@htsec.com
021 23219448 shankj@htsec.com
021 23219449 wuxx@htsec.com
021 23219444 zhouj@htsec.com
021 23219400 zghan@htsec.com
021 23219381 hzh@htsec.com
021 23219386 gaoqin@htsec.com
021 23219385 huxm@htsec.com
021 23219410 huangyu@htsec.com
021 23219384 jiwj@htsec.com
021 23219373 maoyl@htsec.com
021 23219454 sunj@htsec.com
689 021 23219400 021 23219392 www.htsec.com
13

[2008-1-11]海通证券--海利得(002206)产品结构持续优化

发布机构:
报告类型:公司研究 发布日期:2008/1/11
报告评级:
撰写作者:
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内容简介

002206 14.69 17.76 18.86
2008
01
10
12500 A B /H 3200 0/0
2006 79% d 2008 33% c2009
2
2005 21.44 7.51 24.15 1.26 0.54 2007 IPO
2006 67.20 20.43 26.73 1.22 0.89
2007E 8.61 18.88 23.35 0.85 0.63
2008E 34.81 19.82 14.27 1.19 0.85
2009E 6.37 20.22 13.73 1.29 0.90
2007 54.13% 62.62%
34.40%
28.90%
2004 20.1%
48980 2008 2009 9
2007
2007 0.63 0.85 0.90
14.69
25%
d
Email
d
021-23219378 zhuyin@htsec.com
PE
DCF
d
d
d
21.7% 2007
2007 44.32%
31.1%
2004
39320 14320 / 25000 /
/
2008-2009
2009
17.76
18.86
c c
d
ü
d
d
c
d
d d c
d d d d
d
·
002206
1
1. 2006 2 PVC 1
1
PVC
88.5% 2 2007 1-6 3
2007 91.5%
2007
1-6
2.
2
c   & 93
c
d
d

d

d
d

 &93
d d  
·
002206
2
1 2005 1,589.97 70,576.06 2.25 2006 1,776.81 71,840.60 2.47 2007 1 6 806.44 40,602.29 1.99
2004 2004 5 45 40 35 30 25 20 15
21.7% 2007
31.1% 4 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 2004 2005 2006 2007H1
20.1% %
%
2004
2005
2006
2007H1
3.
2 14320 25000 15,980 33,000 1 1
2008 9
14329 / 25000
2007 / 2008-2009 2009
6-7
d
2007 44.32%
k
d
d
d
d
·
002206
3
6
7
50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 2005
35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00
30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2005
2006
2007E
2008E
2009E
2006
95% 3
Samuel Roche
MBG
4.
c
d
c
2007E 2008E 2009E
d

d
d
d c
d


55000
40.00
35000
90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00
3 37310
18,080 3,000 10,000 6,230 2,010 39,320
·
002206
4
4 2007E 16540 4594 3401 4930 29465 4000 780 4780 2008E 16878 11587 3540 9189 41194 4300 1250 5550 2009E 16878 13398 7389 9727 47392 4500 1600 6100
2008 12500
25
0.63
0.85
0.90
5.
5.1 PE 28-30 17.76 -19.02 2007 2007 30 0.63 EPS
5.2 DCF DCF 5 DCF g( 0.00 20.94 19.50 18.21 17.06 16.03 15.09 14.24 0.50 22.27 20.67 19.24 17.98 16.84 15.82 14.90 1.00 23.78 21.98 20.40 19.00 17.75 16.63 15.62 ) 1.50 25.51 23.47 21.69 20.13 18.75 17.52 16.42 2.00 27.50 25.17 23.16 21.41 19.87 18.51 17.29
18.86
WACC ( )
8.50 9.00 9.50 10.00 10.50 11.00 11.50
PE
DCF
17.76
18.86
d
d
d
d 2007-2009
d
d
d
c
d
·
002206
5
2006 P/E P/B P/S EV/EBITDA 25.42 6.79 2.56 13.27 2006 / 1.33 0.78 6.51 0.80 0.59 0.28 2006 20.43 20.51 10.06 26.73 11.45 15.05 2006 0.33 0.18 0.09 0.58 2006 1.79 21.38 53.62 5.62 67.20
2007E 23.40 5.46 2.11 9.76 2007E 1.29 0.85 6.60 0.80 0.62 0.33 2007E 18.88 18.26 9.00 23.35 10.18 12.59 2007E 0.19 0.10 0.05 0.40 2007E 21.33 11.98 10.71 -8.62 8.61
2008E 17.36 2.48 1.70 5.79 2008E 0.34 0.21 27.16 2.30 1.93 1.31 2008E 19.82 18.24 9.82 14.27 10.63 11.76 2008E 0.19 0.10 0.05 0.50 2008E 23.57 29.88 23.45 23.45 34.81
2009E 16.32 2.24 1.54 4.72 2009E 0.35 0.16 21.14 1.94 1.59 1.27 2009E 20.22 17.91 9.42 13.73 10.20 11.87 2009E 0.17 0.09 0.05 0.59 2009E 10.92 13.18 8.93 8.93 6.37 EBIT EBITDA
2006 71841 57167 14403 1041 3926 9119 10649 4083 14732 0 0 1894 0 7225 0.89 2006 9050 6497 6656 26135 32976 63106 10542 32797 3280 3280 36077 0 27029 20971 3.38 2006 7225 4083 4451 9775 0 -1539 -9910 16909 20992 2130 0 5636 5501 1.22
2007E 87167 70710 16128 1389 4049 9904 11790 4127 15917 0 0 2057 0 7847 0.63 2007E 13450 7146 7322 32097 44976 77073 11596 40187 3280 3280 43467 0 33606 28698 2.69 2007E 7847 4127 5341 10617 7934 7934 -7876 16124 20251 1269 0 1658 4399 0.85
2008E 107715 86362 20947 1888 5004 13919 14555 5094 19650 0 0 3341 0 10579 0.85 2008E 28970 7861 8054 50702 48796 99498 12756 22087 3280 3280 25367 0 74131 15789 5.93 2008E 10579 5094 19316 14922 27628 27628 -27570 -14728 -9633 -6840 36725 28168 15520 1.19
2009E 119477 95319 23708 2304 5550 15004 15854 5549 21403 0 0 3751 0 11253 0.90 2009E 31977 8647 8859 48765 61568 110333 14031 25093 3280 3280 28373 0 81960 12876 6.56 2009E 11253 5549 -14440 16085 9446 9446 -9388 38651 44200 -2913 0 -3689 3007 1.29
EBIT EBITDA
·
002206
6
2008 78 85 70 0 1 234
1
10 19 14 11 0 0 15
c d
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
15 5 -5 -5 -15 15 5 -15
5 5 5 5
d
c
d
c
c
c
c
d
c
d d c c d d c d d d d
·
002206
7
021 63411619 wangym@htsec.com
021 63411586 gaodd@htsec.com
021 23219439 skwu@htsec.com
021 23219403 luying@htsec.com
021 23219422 kljiang@htsec.com
021 23219409 chenmf@htsec.com
021 23219399 yezg@htsec.com
021 23219405 dingpin@htsec.com
021 23219402 zhangluan@htsec.com
021 23219404 dengyong@htsec.com
021 23219452 guqing@htsec.com
021 23219395 lianmk@htsec.com
021 23219421 liujin@htsec.com
021 23219408 maying@htsec.com
021 23219420 ymniu@htsec.com
021 23219413 qiucc@htsec.com
021 23219396 qiuzc@htsec.com
021 23219412 zhanwh@htsec.com
021 23219423 zhaot@htsec.com
021 23219411 longh@htsec.com
021 23219391 liuyq@htsec.com
021 23219389 panhw@htsec.com
021 23219401 shuaih@htsec.com
021 23219407 wangyh@htsec.com
021 23219390 wangs@htsec.com
021 23219436 xiey@htsec.com
021 23219414 yanp@htsec.com
021 23219406 yanghj@htsec.com
021 23219397 yelf@htsec.com
021 23219416 zhour@htsec.com
021 23219382 fankx@htsec.com
021 23219434 lml@htsec.com
021 23219435 chenl@htsec.com
021 23219433 zrchen@htsec.com
021 23219438 chenyong@htsec.com
021 23219432 wanghui@htsec.com
021 23219431 yujg@htsec.com
021 23219393 chenjiuhong@htsec.com
021 23219387 wuyiping@htsec.com
·
002206
8
021 23219440 huangzf@htsec.com
021 23219442 zhangdy@htsec.com
021 23219450 loujing@htsec.com
021 23219472 huqian@htsec.com
021 23219445 jiangjx@htsec.com
021 23219424 zqyong@htsec.com
021 23219448 shankj@htsec.com
021 23219449 wuxx@htsec.com
021 23219444 zhouj@htsec.com
021 23219400 zghan@htsec.com
021 23219381 hzh@htsec.com
021 23219386 gaoqin@htsec.com
021 23219385 huxm@htsec.com
021 23219410 huangyu@htsec.com
021 23219384 jiwj@htsec.com
021 23219373 maoyl@htsec.com
021 23219454 sunj@htsec.com
689 021 23219400 021 23219392 www.htsec.com
13
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