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中国石油股份(00857):Helped by gas pipe divestment gain;maintain Neutral

交银国际

26 August 2016
Last Closing: HK$5.22
Upside: +5%
Target Price: HK$5.50↓
Energy Sector
PetroChina (857.HK) Helped by gas pipe divestment gain; maintain Neutral Financial Highlights YE Dec 2014 Revenue (Rmbm) 2,282,962 Revenue growth (% YoY) 1.1% Net profit (Rmbm) 107,172 EPS (Rmb) 0.59 EPS (% YoY) -17.3% Consensus EPS vs. Consensus EPS (%) PE (@5.22HK) 7.3 Dividend yield (%) 6.2 ROAE 9.3% Source: Company, BOCOM Int’l estimates 2015 1,725,428 -24.4% 35,517 0.19 -66.9% 2016E 1,634,361 -5.3% 4,628 0.03 -87.0% 0.06 -59.9% 169.5 0.7 0.4% 2017E 2,215,910 35.6% 22,464 0.12 385.4% 0.25 -50.3% 34.9 1.3 1.9% 2018E 2,501,321 12.9% 28,931 0.16 28.8% 0.45 -64.7% 27.1 1.7 2.4%
UP
MP
OP
Neutral
LT BUY BUY
SELL
22.1 2.0 3.0%
Stock
Revenue fell 15.8%; profit helped by
Revenue fell 15.8% on low oil prices; earnings helped by the Trans-Asia gas pipe divestment. Net profit fell by 98% YoY to Rmb531mn as the CNPC group’s subsidiaries contributed most of the profit which led to high minority interests paid in the reporting period. Revenue dropped by 15.8% YoY to Rmb739bn and operating profit declined 26% YoY to Rmb34.5bn, helped by an Rmb24.5bn gain from the Trans-Asia gas pipeline divestment in Q2. Earnings missed consensus and our forecast, only accounting for 5% of 2016FY consensus. PetroChina announced a total interim dividend of Rmb0.0213/share which included a special dividend of Rmb0.02/share (Rmb3.9bn interim dividend payment). 2016FY oil production target adjusted down; capex plan unchanged. PetroChina’s total O&G production slightly increased by 1.7% YoY in which crude oil output fell by 1.4% YoY (domestic declined by 4.2% while overseas rose 13.1%) to 470.6mn bbl and natural gas output was up by 7.4% YoY (domestic up 5.7% and overseas up 31.4%) to 1,664.9bn cubic ft. PetroChina adjusted down its 2016FY oil production target set at the beginning of the year, expecting crude oil output to be down by 7.6% YoY to 898mn bbl (vs. original target of 925mn bbl), while the natural gas output target of 1.3% YoY increase remains unchanged. Total O&G production in 2016 is expected to decline by 4.5% YoY. Capex in 1H16 declined by 17.5% YoY to Rmb50.9bn, representing 26.5% of the 2016FY capex plan (vs. 30% in 1H15). Domestic demand growth slowed down since Q2; challenges remain; maintain Neutral. The Brent crude price rebounded after a desperate Q1 and PetroChina lowered its lifting cost by 10.2% YoY in 1H16. However, challenges remain for the upstream oil giant. The slowdown in domestic apparent demand of gas and oil products in Q2 and lower natural gas sales prices will also hit PetroChina’s earnings. We adjust down our EPS forecasts for 2016/17 to Rmb0.03/0.12. Maintain Neutral rating with TP revised down to HK$5.5, representing 0.7x 2016PB.
the Trans-Asia gas pipe divestment 2016FY oil production target adjusted down; capex plan unchanged Maintain Neutral with TP revised down to HK$5.5
Stock data 52w High (HKD) 52W Low (HKD) Market cap (USD m) Trading value (USD m) Avg daily vol (m) 1-mth change (%) YTD change (%) 50d MA ( HKD) 200d MA (HKD) 14-day RSI Source: Company data, Bloomberg 6.83 4.16 193,822 50.6 102.8 (2.4) 2.8 5.31 5.24 45.00
1 Year Performance chart 20% 0% -20% -40% Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16
HSI
857.HK
Source: Company data, Bloomberg
Tony Liu xutong.liu@bocomgroup.com Tel: (852) 3766 1806
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉

PetroChina (857.HK) ? Energy Sector
26 August 2016
Figure 1: 1H16 results % of 2016FY consensus and BOCOM forecasts 857 HK 1H 2016 Actual 16E Consensus 1,611,009 40,300 11,050 0.06 % of Consensus 45.9% 85.7% 4.8% 4.7% 16E BOCOM 1,634,361 29,300 4,628 0.03 % of BOCOM 45.2% 117.9% 11.5% 11.7% Sales 739,067 OP 34,540 NP 531 EPS 0.003 Source: BOCOM Int’l, Bloomberg
Figure 2: Income Statement YoY changes Income statement (Rmb m) Revenues Operating expenses Purchases, services and other Employee compensation costs Exploration expenses Depreciation, depl. and amort. SG&A Taxes Other income Total operating expenses Operating income Non-operating Exchange gains Interest income Interest expense Total non-operating income Income from affiliates Pre-tax Income Income taxes Tax rate Net income before MI Minority interests MI as % of NI before MI Net income EPS (Rmb/shr) Source: BOCOM Int’l 1H 2015 877,624 2H 2015 847,804 1H 2016 739,067 —————1H————— YoY% HoH% -15.8% -12.8%
(528,022) (57,290) (12,399) (91,883) (37,492) (105,282) 1,859 (830,509) 47,115
(528,773) (60,792) (5,981) (110,992) (33,778) (100,602) 25,251 (815,667) 32,137
(427,934) (56,846) (9,021) (105,985) (35,230) (94,781) 25,270 (704,527) 34,540
-15.2% -26.7%
-13.6% 7.5%
(267) 875 (12,565) (11,957) 3,279 38,437 (9,846) 25.6% 28,591 (3,185) -11% 25,406 0.141
(365) 1,144 (11,763) (10,984) (1,775) 19,378 (5,880) 30.3% 13,498 (3,387) -25% 10,111 0.053
537 758 (11,931) (10,636) 2,696 26,600 (9,695) 36.4% 16,905 (16,374) -97% 531 0.003
-17.8% -30.8%
-251.9% 37.3%
-40.9%
25.2%
-97.9% -97.9%
-94.7% -94.4%
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2

PetroChina (857.HK) ? Energy Sector
26 August 2016
Company background PetroChina is the largest oil and gas producer in China and one of the largest oil companies in the world. The Group principally engages in, among others, the exploration, development, production and sales of crude oil and natural gas; the refining of crude oil and petroleum products; the production and sales of basic and derivative chemical products and other chemical products; the marketing and trading of refined products; and the transmission of natural gas, crude oil and refined products, and the sales of natural gas.
PetroChina (857.HK): Financial Statements Income statement (RMB m) As of Dec 31 Revenue Operating profit Operating margin EBITDA Non-Operating income Pretax profit Pretax margin Tax paid Tax rate Net profit Net margin EPS (Rmb) BVPS (Rmb) DPS (Rmb)
Balance sheet (RMB m) 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E As of Dec 31 Cash & equivalents Short-term investment Accounts receivable Inventory Other current assets Current assets Net PP&E (Fixed assets) LT Investment Other L/T assets Non-current assets Total Assets Short-term debt Accounts payable Other current liabilities Current liabilities Long-term debt Other non-current liabilities Non-current liabilities Total Liabilities Total Equity Liabilities + Equity
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
2,282,962 1,725,428 1,634,361 2,215,910 2,501,321 169,833 79,252 29,300 57,791 66,160 7.4% 4.6% 1.8% 2.6% 2.6% 355,945 282,999 216,168 247,978 260,494 (24,036) (22,941) (23,271) (22,727) (20,569) 156,759 57,815 7,533 36,568 47,094 6.9% 3.4% 0.5% 1.7% 1.9% (37,731) (15,726) (2,049) (9,947) (12,810) 24.1% 27.2% 27.2% 27.2% 27.2% 107,172 35,517 4,628 22,464 28,931 4.7% 2.1% 0.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.59 0.19 0.03 0.12 0.16 6.54 6.56 6.58 6.70 6.85 0.26 0.09 0.03 0.06 0.07
73,778 72,773 52,288 108,652 150,657 2,243 919 919 919 919 53,104 52,262 49,504 67,118 75,763 165,977 126,877 120,181 162,944 183,931 96,206 96,513 96,513 96,513 96,513 391,308 349,344 319,404 436,146 507,783 1,747,691 1,784,905 1,790,676 1,800,722 1,806,968 116,947 70,976 70,976 70,976 70,976 149,527 188,619 188,619 188,619 188,619 2,014,165 2,044,500 2,050,271 2,060,317 2,066,563 2,405,473 2,393,844 2,369,675 2,496,463 2,574,346 169,128 106,226 76,128 46,030 15,932 364,060 331,040 313,568 425,144 479,903 46,641 34,141 34,141 34,141 34,141 579,829 471,407 423,837 505,315 529,976 370,301 434,475 454,475 474,475 494,475 137,562 143,928 143,928 143,928 143,928 507,863 578,403 598,403 618,403 638,403 1,087,692 1,049,810 1,022,240 1,123,718 1,168,379 1,175,894 1,179,716 1,182,261 1,203,415 1,231,283 2,405,473 2,393,844 2,369,675 2,496,463 2,574,346
Ratio analysis As of Dec 31 ROA ROE ROACE Dividend payout Net debt / equity YoY% growth Revenue growth EBIT growth Net income growth
2014 5% 9% 6% 45% 40% 1.1% -10.3% -17.3%
2015 1% 3% 2% 45% 40% -24.4% -55.1% -66.9%
2016E 0% 0% 1% 45% 40% -5.3% -62.6% -87.0%
2017E 1% 2% 1% 45% 34% 35.6% 93.8% 385.4%
2018E 1% 2% 2% 45% 29% 12.9% 15.0% 28.8%
Cash flow statement (RMB m) As of Dec 31 Depreciation and amortization Operating cashflow Capital expenditure Investing cashflow Dividend payout Financing cashflow Change in cashflow Ending cashflow Free cashflow
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
Oil and gas forecasts As of Dec 31 Brent crude (US$/bbl) Oil realized price (US$/bbl) Gas realized price (US$/mcf) Oil production (mmb) Gas production (mmboe) Total production
2014 99 95 6.2 946 184 1,450
2015 52 48 6.2 972 190 1,494
2016E 46 42 5.3 898 193 1,427
2017E 55 51 5.5 902 199 1,447
2018E 60 52 5.7 907 205 1,468
177,463 202,875 186,229 189,953 193,752 356,477.00 261,312.00 183,695.33 267,771.93 253,163.40 (291,729) (202,238) (192,000) (199,999) (199,998) (290,838) (215,879) (192,000) (199,999) (199,998) (48,502) (16,061) (2,082) (1,311) (1,063) (44,312) (45,439) (12,180) (11,409) (11,161) 22,371 (1,005) (20,485) 56,364 42,005 73,778 72,773 52,288 108,652 150,657 64,748 59,074 (8,305) 67,773 53,165
Segment EBIT (RMBm) As of Dec 31 1. Exploration and production Refining and marketing Chemicals and marketing - Refining and chemicals - 2 Refining - 3 Chemicals - 4 Marketing Natural gas and pipeline Other Total
2014 186,897 (1,734) 0 (23,560) (7,155) (16,405) 5,421 13,126 (12,051) 169,833
2015 33,961 4,190 0 4,883 4,690 193 (500) 51,231 (10,323) 79,252
2016E (18,074) 26,992 0 25,454 20,228 5,226 6,765 25,478 (10,323) 29,300
2017E 21,845 12,631 0 11,992 7,130 4,862 5,500 28,776 (10,323) 57,791
2018E 31,575 8,638 0 8,190 3,665 4,524 4,973 31,745 (10,323) 66,160
Oil and gas forecasts YoY% As of Dec 31 Brent crude Oil realized price Gas realized price Oil production Gas production Total production
2014 -9.1% -5.6% 10.0% 1.4% 8.1% 3.6%
2015 -47.1% -49.0% 0.0% 2.8% 3.4% 3.0%
2016E -12.2% -12.2% -15.0% -7.6% 1.3% -4.5%
2017E 19.6% 19.6% 5.0% 0.5% 3.0% 1.4%
2018E 9.1% 2.5% 2.0% 0.5% 3.0% 1.4%
Source: Company, BOCOM Int’l estimates
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3

PetroChina (857.HK) ? Energy Sector
26 August 2016
BOCOM International Unit 1701, 17/F, Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong Main: + 852 2297 9888 Fax: + 852 2766 3183 www.bocomgroup.com Rating System Company Rating Buy: Expect more than 20% upside in 12 months LT Buy: Expect more than 20% upside but longer than 12 months Neutral: Expect low volatility Sell: Expect more than 20% downside in 12 months Research Team Head of Research Raymond CHENG, CFA, CPA, CA (852) 3766 1818 @bocomgroup.com raymond.cheng
Sector Rating Outperform (“OP”): Expect more than 10% upside in 12 months Market perform (“MP”): Expect low volatility Underperform (“UP”): Expect more than 10% downside in 12 months
Head of Research/ Strategy Hao HONG, CFA (852) 3766 1802
@bocomgroup.com hao.hong
Banks/Network Financials Shanshan LI, CFA Li WAN, CFA Hannah HAN (86) 10 8800 9788 - 8058 (86) 10 8800 9788 - 8051 (86) 10 8800 9788 - 8055 lishanshan wanli hannah.han
Mid-Cap Industrial & Building Materials Angus CHAN (852) 3766 1805 angus.chan
Consumer Summer WANG, CFA (852) 3766 1808 summer.wang
Oil & Gas/ Gas Utilities Tony LIU (852) 3766 1806 xutong.liu
Environmental Services Wallace CHENG (852) 3766 1810 wallace.cheng
Property Alfred LAU, CFA, FRM Philip TSE, CFA, FRM Luella GUO (852) 3766 1807 (852) 3766 1815 (852) 3766 1830 alfred.lau philip.tse luella.guo
Gaming & Leisure Alfred LAU, CFA, FRM (852) 3766 1807 alfred.lau
Renewable Energy Louis SUN (86) 21 6065 3606 louis.sun
Healthcare David LI (852) 3766 1811 david.li
Technology Chris YIM (852) 3766 1803 christopher.yim
Insurance & Brokerage Jennifer ZHANG (852) 3766 1850 yufan.zhang
Transportation & Industrials Geoffrey CHENG, CFA Fay ZHOU (852) 3766 1809 (852) 3766 1816 geoffrey.cheng fay.zhou
Internet Yuan MA, PhD Connie GU, CPA Mengqi SUN (86) 10 8800 9788 - 8039 (86) 10 8800 9788 - 8045 (86) 10 8800 9788 - 8048 yuan.ma conniegu mengqi.sun
Automobile Angus CHAN (852) 3766 1805 angus.chan
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4

PetroChina (857.HK) ? Energy Sector
26 August 2016
Analyst Certification The authors of this report, hereby declare that: (i) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (ii) no part of any of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report; (iii) no insider information/ non-public price-sensitive information in relation to the subject securities or issuers which may influence the recommendations were being received by the authors. The authors of this report further confirm that (i) neither they nor their respective associates (as defined in the Code of Conduct issued by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of the report; (ii)) neither they nor their respective associates serve as an officer of any of the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report; and (iii) neither they nor their respective associates have any financial interests in the stock(s) covered in this report.
Disclosure of relevant business relationships BOCOM International Securities Limited, and/or its associated companies, has investment banking relationship with Bank of Communications, China Huinong Capital Group Limited, Guolian Securities Co. Ltd., ,Bank of Zhengzhou Co. Ltd., China Huarong Asset Management Co. Ltd., China International Capital Corporation Limited, Human Health Holdings Limited, LVGEM (China) Real Estate Investment Company Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Hsin Chong Construction Group Ltd., Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corporation Limited, China Aircraft Leasing Group Holdings Limited, Orient Securities Company Limited, Wuxi Construction and Development Investment Co.China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co., Ltd Phoenix Healthcare Group ,Co. Ltd and Everbright Securities Company Limited within the preceding 12 months. BOCOM International Holdings Company Limited currently holds more than 1% of the equity securities of Chinasoft International Limited. BOCOM International Global Investment Limited currently holds more than 1% of the equity securities of Orient Securities Company Limited. BOCOM International Global Investment Limited currently holds more than 1% of the equity securities of Everbright Securities Company Limited.
Disclaimer By accepting this report (which includes any attachment hereto), the recipient hereof represents and warrants that he is entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions set forth below and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein. Any failure to comply with these limitations may constitute a violation of law. This report is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of BOCOM International Securities Ltd. This report is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this report may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of BOCOM International Securities Ltd. BOCOM International Securities Ltd, its affiliates and related companies, their directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in securities of the company(ies) covered in this report or any securities related thereto and may from time to time add to or dispose of, or may be interested in, any such securities. Further, BOCOM International Securities Ltd, its affiliates and its related companies may do and seek to do business with the company(ies) covered in this report and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in securities of such company(ies), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking, advisory, underwriting, financing or other services for or relating to such company(ies) as well as solicit such investment, advisory, financing or other services from any entity mentioned in this report. In reviewing this report, an investor should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. The information contained in this report is prepared from data and sources believed to be correct and reliable at the time of issue of this report. This report does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require and may be subject to late delivery, interruption and interception. BOCOM International Securities Ltd does not make any guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness, reliability or fairness of any such information and opinion contained in this report and accordingly, neither BOCOM International Securities Ltd nor any of its affiliates nor its related persons shall not be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages) of any reliance thereon or usage thereof. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is intended for circulation amongst BOCOM International Securities Ltd’s clients generally and does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. The information and opinions in this report are not and should not be construed or considered as an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell the subject securities, related investments or other financial instruments thereof. The views, recommendations, advice and opinions in this report may not necessarily reflect those of BOCOM International Securities Ltd or any of its affiliates, and are subject to change without notice. BOCOM International Securities Ltd has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this report. Investors are advised to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this research report, consider their own individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs and consult their own professional and financial advisers as to the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects before participating in any transaction in respect of the securities of company(ies) covered in this report. The securities of such company(ies) may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to any law, regulation, rule or other registration or licensing requirement.
BOCOM International Securities Ltd is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Communications Co Ltd.
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5

中国石油股份(00857):Helped by gas pipe divestment gain;maintain Neutral

发布机构:交银国际
报告类型:公司报告 发布日期:2016/8/26
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内容简介

26 August 2016
Last Closing: HK$5.22
Upside: +5%
Target Price: HK$5.50↓
Energy Sector
PetroChina (857.HK) Helped by gas pipe divestment gain; maintain Neutral Financial Highlights YE Dec 2014 Revenue (Rmbm) 2,282,962 Revenue growth (% YoY) 1.1% Net profit (Rmbm) 107,172 EPS (Rmb) 0.59 EPS (% YoY) -17.3% Consensus EPS vs. Consensus EPS (%) PE (@5.22HK) 7.3 Dividend yield (%) 6.2 ROAE 9.3% Source: Company, BOCOM Int’l estimates 2015 1,725,428 -24.4% 35,517 0.19 -66.9% 2016E 1,634,361 -5.3% 4,628 0.03 -87.0% 0.06 -59.9% 169.5 0.7 0.4% 2017E 2,215,910 35.6% 22,464 0.12 385.4% 0.25 -50.3% 34.9 1.3 1.9% 2018E 2,501,321 12.9% 28,931 0.16 28.8% 0.45 -64.7% 27.1 1.7 2.4%
UP
MP
OP
Neutral
LT BUY BUY
SELL
22.1 2.0 3.0%
Stock
Revenue fell 15.8%; profit helped by
Revenue fell 15.8% on low oil prices; earnings helped by the Trans-Asia gas pipe divestment. Net profit fell by 98% YoY to Rmb531mn as the CNPC group’s subsidiaries contributed most of the profit which led to high minority interests paid in the reporting period. Revenue dropped by 15.8% YoY to Rmb739bn and operating profit declined 26% YoY to Rmb34.5bn, helped by an Rmb24.5bn gain from the Trans-Asia gas pipeline divestment in Q2. Earnings missed consensus and our forecast, only accounting for 5% of 2016FY consensus. PetroChina announced a total interim dividend of Rmb0.0213/share which included a special dividend of Rmb0.02/share (Rmb3.9bn interim dividend payment). 2016FY oil production target adjusted down; capex plan unchanged. PetroChina’s total O&G production slightly increased by 1.7% YoY in which crude oil output fell by 1.4% YoY (domestic declined by 4.2% while overseas rose 13.1%) to 470.6mn bbl and natural gas output was up by 7.4% YoY (domestic up 5.7% and overseas up 31.4%) to 1,664.9bn cubic ft. PetroChina adjusted down its 2016FY oil production target set at the beginning of the year, expecting crude oil output to be down by 7.6% YoY to 898mn bbl (vs. original target of 925mn bbl), while the natural gas output target of 1.3% YoY increase remains unchanged. Total O&G production in 2016 is expected to decline by 4.5% YoY. Capex in 1H16 declined by 17.5% YoY to Rmb50.9bn, representing 26.5% of the 2016FY capex plan (vs. 30% in 1H15). Domestic demand growth slowed down since Q2; challenges remain; maintain Neutral. The Brent crude price rebounded after a desperate Q1 and PetroChina lowered its lifting cost by 10.2% YoY in 1H16. However, challenges remain for the upstream oil giant. The slowdown in domestic apparent demand of gas and oil products in Q2 and lower natural gas sales prices will also hit PetroChina’s earnings. We adjust down our EPS forecasts for 2016/17 to Rmb0.03/0.12. Maintain Neutral rating with TP revised down to HK$5.5, representing 0.7x 2016PB.
the Trans-Asia gas pipe divestment 2016FY oil production target adjusted down; capex plan unchanged Maintain Neutral with TP revised down to HK$5.5
Stock data 52w High (HKD) 52W Low (HKD) Market cap (USD m) Trading value (USD m) Avg daily vol (m) 1-mth change (%) YTD change (%) 50d MA ( HKD) 200d MA (HKD) 14-day RSI Source: Company data, Bloomberg 6.83 4.16 193,822 50.6 102.8 (2.4) 2.8 5.31 5.24 45.00
1 Year Performance chart 20% 0% -20% -40% Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16
HSI
857.HK
Source: Company data, Bloomberg
Tony Liu xutong.liu@bocomgroup.com Tel: (852) 3766 1806
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉

PetroChina (857.HK) ? Energy Sector
26 August 2016
Figure 1: 1H16 results % of 2016FY consensus and BOCOM forecasts 857 HK 1H 2016 Actual 16E Consensus 1,611,009 40,300 11,050 0.06 % of Consensus 45.9% 85.7% 4.8% 4.7% 16E BOCOM 1,634,361 29,300 4,628 0.03 % of BOCOM 45.2% 117.9% 11.5% 11.7% Sales 739,067 OP 34,540 NP 531 EPS 0.003 Source: BOCOM Int’l, Bloomberg
Figure 2: Income Statement YoY changes Income statement (Rmb m) Revenues Operating expenses Purchases, services and other Employee compensation costs Exploration expenses Depreciation, depl. and amort. SG&A Taxes Other income Total operating expenses Operating income Non-operating Exchange gains Interest income Interest expense Total non-operating income Income from affiliates Pre-tax Income Income taxes Tax rate Net income before MI Minority interests MI as % of NI before MI Net income EPS (Rmb/shr) Source: BOCOM Int’l 1H 2015 877,624 2H 2015 847,804 1H 2016 739,067 —————1H————— YoY% HoH% -15.8% -12.8%
(528,022) (57,290) (12,399) (91,883) (37,492) (105,282) 1,859 (830,509) 47,115
(528,773) (60,792) (5,981) (110,992) (33,778) (100,602) 25,251 (815,667) 32,137
(427,934) (56,846) (9,021) (105,985) (35,230) (94,781) 25,270 (704,527) 34,540
-15.2% -26.7%
-13.6% 7.5%
(267) 875 (12,565) (11,957) 3,279 38,437 (9,846) 25.6% 28,591 (3,185) -11% 25,406 0.141
(365) 1,144 (11,763) (10,984) (1,775) 19,378 (5,880) 30.3% 13,498 (3,387) -25% 10,111 0.053
537 758 (11,931) (10,636) 2,696 26,600 (9,695) 36.4% 16,905 (16,374) -97% 531 0.003
-17.8% -30.8%
-251.9% 37.3%
-40.9%
25.2%
-97.9% -97.9%
-94.7% -94.4%
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
2

PetroChina (857.HK) ? Energy Sector
26 August 2016
Company background PetroChina is the largest oil and gas producer in China and one of the largest oil companies in the world. The Group principally engages in, among others, the exploration, development, production and sales of crude oil and natural gas; the refining of crude oil and petroleum products; the production and sales of basic and derivative chemical products and other chemical products; the marketing and trading of refined products; and the transmission of natural gas, crude oil and refined products, and the sales of natural gas.
PetroChina (857.HK): Financial Statements Income statement (RMB m) As of Dec 31 Revenue Operating profit Operating margin EBITDA Non-Operating income Pretax profit Pretax margin Tax paid Tax rate Net profit Net margin EPS (Rmb) BVPS (Rmb) DPS (Rmb)
Balance sheet (RMB m) 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E As of Dec 31 Cash & equivalents Short-term investment Accounts receivable Inventory Other current assets Current assets Net PP&E (Fixed assets) LT Investment Other L/T assets Non-current assets Total Assets Short-term debt Accounts payable Other current liabilities Current liabilities Long-term debt Other non-current liabilities Non-current liabilities Total Liabilities Total Equity Liabilities + Equity
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
2,282,962 1,725,428 1,634,361 2,215,910 2,501,321 169,833 79,252 29,300 57,791 66,160 7.4% 4.6% 1.8% 2.6% 2.6% 355,945 282,999 216,168 247,978 260,494 (24,036) (22,941) (23,271) (22,727) (20,569) 156,759 57,815 7,533 36,568 47,094 6.9% 3.4% 0.5% 1.7% 1.9% (37,731) (15,726) (2,049) (9,947) (12,810) 24.1% 27.2% 27.2% 27.2% 27.2% 107,172 35,517 4,628 22,464 28,931 4.7% 2.1% 0.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.59 0.19 0.03 0.12 0.16 6.54 6.56 6.58 6.70 6.85 0.26 0.09 0.03 0.06 0.07
73,778 72,773 52,288 108,652 150,657 2,243 919 919 919 919 53,104 52,262 49,504 67,118 75,763 165,977 126,877 120,181 162,944 183,931 96,206 96,513 96,513 96,513 96,513 391,308 349,344 319,404 436,146 507,783 1,747,691 1,784,905 1,790,676 1,800,722 1,806,968 116,947 70,976 70,976 70,976 70,976 149,527 188,619 188,619 188,619 188,619 2,014,165 2,044,500 2,050,271 2,060,317 2,066,563 2,405,473 2,393,844 2,369,675 2,496,463 2,574,346 169,128 106,226 76,128 46,030 15,932 364,060 331,040 313,568 425,144 479,903 46,641 34,141 34,141 34,141 34,141 579,829 471,407 423,837 505,315 529,976 370,301 434,475 454,475 474,475 494,475 137,562 143,928 143,928 143,928 143,928 507,863 578,403 598,403 618,403 638,403 1,087,692 1,049,810 1,022,240 1,123,718 1,168,379 1,175,894 1,179,716 1,182,261 1,203,415 1,231,283 2,405,473 2,393,844 2,369,675 2,496,463 2,574,346
Ratio analysis As of Dec 31 ROA ROE ROACE Dividend payout Net debt / equity YoY% growth Revenue growth EBIT growth Net income growth
2014 5% 9% 6% 45% 40% 1.1% -10.3% -17.3%
2015 1% 3% 2% 45% 40% -24.4% -55.1% -66.9%
2016E 0% 0% 1% 45% 40% -5.3% -62.6% -87.0%
2017E 1% 2% 1% 45% 34% 35.6% 93.8% 385.4%
2018E 1% 2% 2% 45% 29% 12.9% 15.0% 28.8%
Cash flow statement (RMB m) As of Dec 31 Depreciation and amortization Operating cashflow Capital expenditure Investing cashflow Dividend payout Financing cashflow Change in cashflow Ending cashflow Free cashflow
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
Oil and gas forecasts As of Dec 31 Brent crude (US$/bbl) Oil realized price (US$/bbl) Gas realized price (US$/mcf) Oil production (mmb) Gas production (mmboe) Total production
2014 99 95 6.2 946 184 1,450
2015 52 48 6.2 972 190 1,494
2016E 46 42 5.3 898 193 1,427
2017E 55 51 5.5 902 199 1,447
2018E 60 52 5.7 907 205 1,468
177,463 202,875 186,229 189,953 193,752 356,477.00 261,312.00 183,695.33 267,771.93 253,163.40 (291,729) (202,238) (192,000) (199,999) (199,998) (290,838) (215,879) (192,000) (199,999) (199,998) (48,502) (16,061) (2,082) (1,311) (1,063) (44,312) (45,439) (12,180) (11,409) (11,161) 22,371 (1,005) (20,485) 56,364 42,005 73,778 72,773 52,288 108,652 150,657 64,748 59,074 (8,305) 67,773 53,165
Segment EBIT (RMBm) As of Dec 31 1. Exploration and production Refining and marketing Chemicals and marketing - Refining and chemicals - 2 Refining - 3 Chemicals - 4 Marketing Natural gas and pipeline Other Total
2014 186,897 (1,734) 0 (23,560) (7,155) (16,405) 5,421 13,126 (12,051) 169,833
2015 33,961 4,190 0 4,883 4,690 193 (500) 51,231 (10,323) 79,252
2016E (18,074) 26,992 0 25,454 20,228 5,226 6,765 25,478 (10,323) 29,300
2017E 21,845 12,631 0 11,992 7,130 4,862 5,500 28,776 (10,323) 57,791
2018E 31,575 8,638 0 8,190 3,665 4,524 4,973 31,745 (10,323) 66,160
Oil and gas forecasts YoY% As of Dec 31 Brent crude Oil realized price Gas realized price Oil production Gas production Total production
2014 -9.1% -5.6% 10.0% 1.4% 8.1% 3.6%
2015 -47.1% -49.0% 0.0% 2.8% 3.4% 3.0%
2016E -12.2% -12.2% -15.0% -7.6% 1.3% -4.5%
2017E 19.6% 19.6% 5.0% 0.5% 3.0% 1.4%
2018E 9.1% 2.5% 2.0% 0.5% 3.0% 1.4%
Source: Company, BOCOM Int’l estimates
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3

PetroChina (857.HK) ? Energy Sector
26 August 2016
BOCOM International Unit 1701, 17/F, Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong Main: + 852 2297 9888 Fax: + 852 2766 3183 www.bocomgroup.com Rating System Company Rating Buy: Expect more than 20% upside in 12 months LT Buy: Expect more than 20% upside but longer than 12 months Neutral: Expect low volatility Sell: Expect more than 20% downside in 12 months Research Team Head of Research Raymond CHENG, CFA, CPA, CA (852) 3766 1818 @bocomgroup.com raymond.cheng
Sector Rating Outperform (“OP”): Expect more than 10% upside in 12 months Market perform (“MP”): Expect low volatility Underperform (“UP”): Expect more than 10% downside in 12 months
Head of Research/ Strategy Hao HONG, CFA (852) 3766 1802
@bocomgroup.com hao.hong
Banks/Network Financials Shanshan LI, CFA Li WAN, CFA Hannah HAN (86) 10 8800 9788 - 8058 (86) 10 8800 9788 - 8051 (86) 10 8800 9788 - 8055 lishanshan wanli hannah.han
Mid-Cap Industrial & Building Materials Angus CHAN (852) 3766 1805 angus.chan
Consumer Summer WANG, CFA (852) 3766 1808 summer.wang
Oil & Gas/ Gas Utilities Tony LIU (852) 3766 1806 xutong.liu
Environmental Services Wallace CHENG (852) 3766 1810 wallace.cheng
Property Alfred LAU, CFA, FRM Philip TSE, CFA, FRM Luella GUO (852) 3766 1807 (852) 3766 1815 (852) 3766 1830 alfred.lau philip.tse luella.guo
Gaming & Leisure Alfred LAU, CFA, FRM (852) 3766 1807 alfred.lau
Renewable Energy Louis SUN (86) 21 6065 3606 louis.sun
Healthcare David LI (852) 3766 1811 david.li
Technology Chris YIM (852) 3766 1803 christopher.yim
Insurance & Brokerage Jennifer ZHANG (852) 3766 1850 yufan.zhang
Transportation & Industrials Geoffrey CHENG, CFA Fay ZHOU (852) 3766 1809 (852) 3766 1816 geoffrey.cheng fay.zhou
Internet Yuan MA, PhD Connie GU, CPA Mengqi SUN (86) 10 8800 9788 - 8039 (86) 10 8800 9788 - 8045 (86) 10 8800 9788 - 8048 yuan.ma conniegu mengqi.sun
Automobile Angus CHAN (852) 3766 1805 angus.chan
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PetroChina (857.HK) ? Energy Sector
26 August 2016
Analyst Certification The authors of this report, hereby declare that: (i) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (ii) no part of any of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report; (iii) no insider information/ non-public price-sensitive information in relation to the subject securities or issuers which may influence the recommendations were being received by the authors. The authors of this report further confirm that (i) neither they nor their respective associates (as defined in the Code of Conduct issued by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of the report; (ii)) neither they nor their respective associates serve as an officer of any of the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report; and (iii) neither they nor their respective associates have any financial interests in the stock(s) covered in this report.
Disclosure of relevant business relationships BOCOM International Securities Limited, and/or its associated companies, has investment banking relationship with Bank of Communications, China Huinong Capital Group Limited, Guolian Securities Co. Ltd., ,Bank of Zhengzhou Co. Ltd., China Huarong Asset Management Co. Ltd., China International Capital Corporation Limited, Human Health Holdings Limited, LVGEM (China) Real Estate Investment Company Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Hsin Chong Construction Group Ltd., Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corporation Limited, China Aircraft Leasing Group Holdings Limited, Orient Securities Company Limited, Wuxi Construction and Development Investment Co.China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co., Ltd Phoenix Healthcare Group ,Co. Ltd and Everbright Securities Company Limited within the preceding 12 months. BOCOM International Holdings Company Limited currently holds more than 1% of the equity securities of Chinasoft International Limited. BOCOM International Global Investment Limited currently holds more than 1% of the equity securities of Orient Securities Company Limited. BOCOM International Global Investment Limited currently holds more than 1% of the equity securities of Everbright Securities Company Limited.
Disclaimer By accepting this report (which includes any attachment hereto), the recipient hereof represents and warrants that he is entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions set forth below and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein. Any failure to comply with these limitations may constitute a violation of law. This report is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of BOCOM International Securities Ltd. This report is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this report may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of BOCOM International Securities Ltd. BOCOM International Securities Ltd, its affiliates and related companies, their directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in securities of the company(ies) covered in this report or any securities related thereto and may from time to time add to or dispose of, or may be interested in, any such securities. Further, BOCOM International Securities Ltd, its affiliates and its related companies may do and seek to do business with the company(ies) covered in this report and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in securities of such company(ies), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking, advisory, underwriting, financing or other services for or relating to such company(ies) as well as solicit such investment, advisory, financing or other services from any entity mentioned in this report. In reviewing this report, an investor should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. The information contained in this report is prepared from data and sources believed to be correct and reliable at the time of issue of this report. This report does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require and may be subject to late delivery, interruption and interception. BOCOM International Securities Ltd does not make any guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness, reliability or fairness of any such information and opinion contained in this report and accordingly, neither BOCOM International Securities Ltd nor any of its affiliates nor its related persons shall not be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages) of any reliance thereon or usage thereof. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is intended for circulation amongst BOCOM International Securities Ltd’s clients generally and does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. The information and opinions in this report are not and should not be construed or considered as an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell the subject securities, related investments or other financial instruments thereof. The views, recommendations, advice and opinions in this report may not necessarily reflect those of BOCOM International Securities Ltd or any of its affiliates, and are subject to change without notice. BOCOM International Securities Ltd has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this report. Investors are advised to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this research report, consider their own individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs and consult their own professional and financial advisers as to the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects before participating in any transaction in respect of the securities of company(ies) covered in this report. The securities of such company(ies) may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to any law, regulation, rule or other registration or licensing requirement.
BOCOM International Securities Ltd is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Communications Co Ltd.
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