渐飞研究报告终端

大容量:共收录国内外各大机构共计45万余份,并且每天以超过500份增加!
更安全:报告加密备份在云存储,从此不怕硬盘损坏丢研究报告!
更省心:工作学习太忙没有时间下载报告,终端自动帮您搞定!
更方便:完全不改变您的使用习惯,不用学习就能上手

免费下载:


运行界面:

中芯国际(00981):Hold,Rapid growth,but messy financials and full valuation

汇丰银行

16 February 2017
SMIC (0981 HK) Hold: Rapid growth, but messy financials and full valuation
EQUITIES SEMICONDUCTORS Hong Kong
???? ? PREVIOUS TARGET (HKD)
? 4Q16 miss on higher opex, but tax/minority interest helped offset; 1Q17 guidance below, yet 20% growth target remains ? Margin risks from rising depreciation, mix, and competitive pricing pressures remain a key concern ? Retain Hold/HKD10.5: Respectable growth, yet valuation full given ‘blackbox’ P&L, negative FCF and true ‘ongoing’ ROE <10% Messy 4Q16 results: Record high revs (+5.2% q-o-q) were driven by 40nm (+9% q-o-q to 24% of revs), with 28nm ramping to 3.5% of total from 1.4%. A full quarter effect from recent LFoundry acquisition also helped. Despite 17% q-o-q growth in depreciation, gross margin was 30.2%, in line with our 30.1% forecast, and the high end of the 29-30% range. Opex was far above expectations due to higher R&D (with lower subsidies), and lofty employee bonus accrual. Op margin was 6% versus consensus of 12.6%. A tax credit of USD8.5m and higher non-controlling interest helped partially offset and resulted in net profit of USD104m, missing our USD152m forecast and Street at USD119m. EPS was USD0.11, missing our USD0.15 and consensus at USD0.12. 1Q guidance miss, but full year 20% revenue growth target unchanged: 1Q17 revenue was guided down 2-4% q-o-q, versus flattish consensus. Management attributed this to seasonality and weakness from a key fingerprint sensor customer. The company is now rushing to backfill the vacant capacity. 1Q17 gross margins are to range from 25% to 28%, missing consensus of 28.6%. Opex should fall meaningfully q-o-q given less bonus accrual, but the minority interest “add back” will also downtick. Net-net, we lower our 1Q17 net profit forecast by 15% (now 19% below consensus prior to results). Despite the slower start to the year, management reiterated its full year revenue growth target of 20% with gross margins in the mid-tohigh 20%. Given the 2016 gross margin was 29%, it appears that a 50% y-o-y increase in depreciation this year will likely pressure margins. As we wrote in our 16 January note Hold: Outlook softer, but margin risks increasing, we also worry that competitive threats and 4x/28nm pricing pressures may weigh on margins. Hold: Fewer catalysts in 2017: Given management’s 20% growth target has been well flagged, the valuation is more than full, and we see multiple margin headwinds, we are concerned there are limited catalysts for SMIC shares for the foreseeable future. Further, we continue to highlight the ‘predictably unpredictable’ financials. For example, 4Q16 results had R&D grants, bonus accruals, a sales/leaseback transaction, increased debt (with more likely to come), JV partner contributions, and a tax benefit. Free cash flow remains negative and, given annual capex is >2x EBITDA, it will likely remain negative at least through 2020. Our 2017 EPS is unchanged, and our local/ADR TP remains HKD10.50/USD6.8. Given the company is growing rapidly, we switch to a PE multiple (15.1x) valuation from PB – though we note our TP equates to 1.4x PB, which may be lofty given ROE <10%. Our TP implies 7% downside; we maintain our Hold rating.
MAINTAIN HOLD TARGET PRICE (HKD)
10.50 SHARE PRICE (HKD)
10.50 UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE
11.30
(as of 14 Feb 2017)
-7.1% 51,403 6,623 39 Free float BBG RIC 89% 0981 HK 0981.HK
MARKET DATA Market cap (HKDm) Market cap (USDm) 3m ADTV (USDm)
FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (USD) Year to 12/2015a HSBC EPS (per local) 0.06 HSBC EPS (prev) Change (%) Consensus EPS 0.01 PE (x) 24.7 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.1 ROE (%) 7.6 12/2016e 0.08 0.09 -11.1 0.01 18.7 0.0 6.5 9.6 12/2017e 0.09 0.01 16.2 0.0 4.7 9.9 12/2018e 0.10 0.01 14.6 0.0 4.1 9.7
52-WEEK PRICE (HKD) 14.00 7.00 0.00 02/17 High: 12.18 Low: 1.03 Current: 11.30
02/16 Target price: 10.50
08/16
Source: Thomson Reuters IBES, HSBC estimates
Steven Pelayo, CFA Regional Head of Technology Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited stevenpelayo@hsbc.com.hk +852 2822 4391
Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.
Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com
EQUITIES ● SEMICONDUCTORS 16 February 2017
????
Trajectory of upward revenue revisions likely asymptote for the foreseeable future (USDbn) 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.3 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 2016 revs consensus 2016 revs consensus Source: Bloomberg
Trajectory of upward earnings revisions likely slowing too (USDm) 450
400 350
300 250
200 150 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 2016 NI consensus 2017 NI consensus Source: Bloomberg
SMIC - Changes in quarterly forecast vs consensus (USDm) Revs Q-o-q GM% Opex OP OP % Net income EPS (USD/ADS) __________ 4Q16___________ _________ 1Q17e ___________ ___ Diff. 4Q16_____ ___ Diff. 1Q17e ____ Est. Actual Cons. Prior New Cons. vs. Est. vs. Cons. vs. Prior vs. Cons. 836 815 822 821 791 824 -3% -1% -4% -4% 7.9% 5.2% 6.1% -1.7% -2.9% 0.2% -270bps -94bps -115bps -306bps 30.1% 30.2% 29.3% 28.3% 28.1% 28.6% 7bps 91bps -16bps -50bps 133.0 197.0 137.3 139.4 141.8 135.0 48% 43% 2% 5% 118.8 49.0 103.4 92.7 80.6 100.6 -59% -53% -13% -20% 14.2% 6.0% 12.6% 11.3% 10.2% 12.2% -819bps -656bps -111bps -203bps 151.8 104.0 119.1 94.7 80.1 98.9 -31% -13% -15% -19% 0.15 0.10 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.10 -32% -13% -16% -19%
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates and FactSet
SMIC - Changes in annual forecast vs consensus (USDm) Revs Y-o-y GM% Opex OP OP % Net income EPS (USD/ADS) ________ 2016 ________ Est. Actual Cons. 2,935 2,914 2,917 31.2% 30.3% 30.4% 29.1% 29.2% 30.2% 446.7 510.5 502.5 408.7 339.2 379.2 13.9% 11.6% 13.0% 424.2 376.6 379.9 0.44 0.39 0.39 _________ 2017e ___________ ___ Diff. 2016 _____ ___ Diff. 2017e ____ Prior New Cons. vs. Est. vs. Cons. vs. Prior vs. Cons. 3,519 3,547 3,551 -1% 0% 1% 0% 19.9% 21.7% 21.7% -94bps -13bps 180bps -2bps 28.8% 28.6% 30.4% 1bps -107bps -13bps -172bps 562.2 592.3 645.6 14% 2% 5% -8% 450.4 423.7 432.8 -17% -11% -6% -2% 12.8% 11.9% 12.2% -229bps -136bps -85bps -24bps 451.4 453.7 431.9 -11% -1% 1% 5% 0.45 0.45 0.43 -11% -1% 0% 5%
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates and FactSet
SMIC - Quarterly and annual P&L (USDm) Revenue Q-o-q Y-o-y GP GM % Op Profit OM % Non-op income Net profit EPS (USD) 1Q16 634 4.0% 24.4% 154 24.2% 66 10.4% (14) 61 0.07 2Q16 690 8.8% 26.3% 205 29.7% 102 14.8% (21) 85 0.09 3Q16 775 12.3% 36.0% 232 30.0% 109 14.0% 4 114 0.11 4Q16 815 5.2% 33.5% 246 30.2% 49 6.0% 0 104 0.10 1Q17e 791 -2.9% 24.7% 222 28.1% 81 10.2% (7) 80 0.08 2Q17e 880 11.2% 27.5% 251 28.6% 105 11.9% (8) 104 0.10 3Q17e 927 5.4% 19.7% 271 29.2% 128 13.8% (7) 127 0.13 4Q17e 948 2.3% 16.4% 272 28.6% 110 11.6% (7) 142 0.14 2015 2,236 13.5% 683 30.5% 222 9.9% 9 253 0.29 2016 2,914 30.3% 850 29.2% 339 11.6% (29) 377 0.39 2017e 3,547 21.7% 1,016 28.6% 424 11.9% (28) 454 0.45
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates
2
EQUITIES ● SEMICONDUCTORS 16 February 2017
????
Valuation and risks
Forward P/B band for ADR shares USD 12 USD 10 USD 8 USD 6 USD 4 USD 2
Current P/B vs forward ROE 3.0x 15% 10% 5%
2.5x 2.0x 1.5x
1.0x 0.5x 0.0x 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 2.0x
0% -5% -10% 12 13 P/B
USD 0
14
15
16 FTM ROE
17
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates
Forward P/E for ADR shares USD 8 19x 16x 13x
USD 7 USD 6 USD 5 USD 4 USD 3 USD 2 12 Source: Company data, HSBC estimates
10x
13
14
15
16
We view the valuation as mixed. We leave our local/ADR share target prices of HKD10.50/USD6.80 unchanged, which are now based on a 15.1x PE multiple applied to unchanged 2017e EPS of USD0.45 per ADR share, rather than the PB multiple we used previously. We now focus on PE as the main valuation methodology as the company is more a growth story with consistent profitability. We use a PE multiple of 15.1x, the average PE since SMIC has reported consistently positive earnings, reflecting the period 2012-2017. Under our previous methodology, our new TP is the equivalent of 1.4x PB (vs 1.3x PB we used previously) applied to end-4Q17e book value of USD4.92 (vs USD5.25 prior). Our TP implies 7% downside to the current price; we maintain our Hold rating for the reasons we discuss below. On the one side, we note that SMIC shares have traded between 1.0-1.4x P/B over the past few years. And, while the company has now achieved 18 consecutive quarters of sustained profitability and reported ROE has been around 10% in each of the past two quarters, we forecast ROE to peak around current levels. We apply the higher end of SMIC shares’ historical P/B trading band to derive our target price given our confidence in SMIC as more of a pure-play on China chips, as well as the strong revenue outlook. We are hesitant to expand it further given the company has generated negative free cash flow for the past two years, and we think it will remain negative for at least the next two years as well. This implies that the strong growth outlook will likely require continued financing (debt, equity, government subsidy, and/or JV partner capital contributions).
3
EQUITIES ● SEMICONDUCTORS 16 February 2017
????
Given the company is sustainably profitable and growing rapidly, we also look for our ADR fair value target price to be supported on a forward P/E multiple basis. We believe our 15.1x multiple (unchanged) is more than reasonable given it is a slight premium to industry leader TSMC (2330 TT), which is trading at 13.2x PE, yet has better free cash flow, ROE and pays a dividend. Once again, we are willing to assume a premium to peer multiples given SMIC’s rapid growth and perception as a pure play on China chips. So, why not a Reduce rating? We are hesitant to be too negative given that many China tech names, especially those in the A share market, trade at a significantly higher multiple. We also believe investors may be willing to look through the negative free cash flow, so long as the top-line growth remains robust. (Please note the company reports in USD so the local target is based on a 1:5 ADR/local share conversion ratio and a HKD7.75 exchange rate).
Peer comparison Current Target Upside Mcap ___ PE ____ ____ PB ________ ROE ____ _ Div yield __ Company Ticker Rating (local) (local) (%) (USD) 2016 2017e 2016 2017e 2016 2017e 2016 2017e TSMC 2330.TW Hold 187.5 196.0 5% 157,732 14.5 13.4 3.5 3.1 25.6% 24.4% 3.2% 3.7% UMC 2303.TW Hold 11.7 12.0 3% 4,792 17.3 16.0 0.7 0.7 3.7% 4.1% 4.8% 3.8% Vanguard 5347.TWO Reduce 59.3 52.0 -12% 3,153 17.7 17.5 3.5 3.6 19.9% 20.2% 4.4% 4.9% SMIC 0981.HK Hold 11.30 10.50 -7% 6,623 18.7 16.2 1.7 1.5 9.6% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% HHGrace 1347.HK NR 8.88 nm nm 1,247 9.0 10.0 0.8 0.8 8.6% 7.9% 2.6% 2.5% Source: Company data, HSBC estimates, FactSet Priced at close of 14 February 2017
From a peer comparable perspective, SMIC’s valuation is difficult to assess. Trading at 1.5x book value may appear expensive relative to peer UMC (2303 TT), which trades at 0.7x book. However, UMC has more advanced technology and has been shipping a meaningfully higher volume of 28nm wafers for the past few years. On the other end of the spectrum, Vanguard (5347 TT) and TSMC (2330 TT) trade at or above 3.0-3.4x book value. However, both of those companies have clean financials (very few one-time gains from government credits, property sales or JV financing), and generate significantly positive (>20% of revenue) free cash flow (while SMIC will be negative for many years). They also both generate ROEs above 20% and pay a dividend. Net/net, valuing SMIC from a peer perspective is challenging. The growth angle is far ahead of peers, while the ROE story is less than average, and the negative free cash flow poor. Key downside risks: (1) Weaker-than-expected end-demand for electronics products; (2) managing rising depreciation burdens, while still funding and executing next generation 28nm and beyond nodes; (3) ability to sustain or grow ROE on an ongoing basis without non-operating gains; (4) excess inventories resulting in an inventory correction; (5) continued negative free cash flows requiring further financing; and (6) competitive pressures. Key upside risks: Faster revenue growth with controlled capacity additions, stable yields and high utilisations leading to better margins and returns. Additional assistance from the Chinese government in support of domestic semiconductor production initiatives.
4
EQUITIES ● SEMICONDUCTORS 16 February 2017
????
Financials & valuation: SMIC Financial statements Year to Profit & loss summary (USDm) Revenue EBITDA Depreciation & amortisation Operating profit/EBIT Net interest PBT Taxation Net profit Cash flow summary (USDm) Cash flow from operations Capex Cash flow from investment Dividends Change in net debt FCF equity Balance sheet summary (USDm) Tangible fixed assets Current assets Cash & others Total assets Operating liabilities Gross debt Net debt Shareholders' funds Invested capital 2,236 746 -524 222 9 231 -9 253 669 -1,231 -1,333 0 -323 -485 4,525 2,590 1,308 7,115 1,429 1,496 188 3,730 4,378 2,914 1,069 -730 339 -29 310 7 377 964 -2,757 -2,578 0 100 -1,711 6,432 3,684 2,464 10,115 1,564 2,752 289 4,151 6,087 3,547 1,516 -1,092 424 -28 396 -4 454 1,516 -2,400 -2,400 0 182 -916 7,722 4,236 2,768 11,958 1,843 3,239 470 4,974 7,347 3,972 1,811 -1,354 457 -7 450 -10 508 1,811 -2,781 -2,781 0 414 -987 9,149 3,537 1,849 12,686 2,099 2,734 884 5,475 8,737 12/2015a 12/2016e 12/2017e 12/2018e
Hold Valuation data Year to EV/sales EV/EBITDA EV/IC PE* PB FCF yield (%) Dividend yield (%) * Based on HSBC EPS (diluted)
12/2015a 3.0 9.1 1.6 24.7 1.7 -7.3 0.0
12/2016e 2.4 6.5 1.1 18.7 1.7 -25.8 0.0
12/2017e 2.0 4.7 1.0 16.2 1.5 -13.8 0.0
12/2018e 1.9 4.1 0.9 14.6 1.4 -14.9 0.0
Issuer information Share price (HKD) Target price (HKD) Reuters (Equity) Bloomberg (Equity) Market cap (USDm) 11.30 10.50 0981.HK 0981 HK 6,623 Free float Sector Country Analyst Contact 89% Semiconductors Hong Kong Steven Pelayo, CFA +852 2822 4391
Price relative 14.00 14.00
12.00 10.00
12.00 10.00
8.00 6.00 4.00
8.00 6.00 4.00
Ratio, growth and per share analysis Year to Y-o-y % change Revenue EBITDA Operating profit PBT HSBC EPS Ratios (%) Revenue/IC (x) ROIC ROE ROA EBITDA margin Operating profit margin Net debt/equity Net debt/EBITDA (x) Per share data (USD) EPS (diluted per local share) EPS (diluted per ADS) DPS Book value 13.5 9.7 70.5 67.2 38.0 0.5 5.2 7.6 3.3 33.3 9.9 4.5 0.3 0.06 0.29 0.00 0.87 30.3 43.4 52.8 34.2 32.2 0.6 6.6 9.6 4.0 36.7 11.6 5.3 0.3 0.08 0.39 0.00 0.86 21.7 41.8 24.9 27.7 15.3 0.5 6.2 9.9 3.8 42.7 11.9 6.8 0.3 0.09 0.45 0.00 0.98 12.0 19.5 7.8 13.6 11.4 0.5 5.6 9.7 3.6 45.6 11.5 11.3 0.5 0.10 0.50 0.00 1.08 12/2015a 12/2016e 12/2017e 12/2018e
2.00 0.00 2015 SMIC Source: HSBC Note: Priced at close of 14 Feb 2017
2.00 0.00
2016
2017 Rel to HANG SENG INDEX
5
EQUITIES ● SEMICONDUCTORS 16 February 2017
????
Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Steven Pelayo. Important disclosures Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and that investors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used or relied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating systems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the rating because research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts' views and the basis for the rating. From 23rd March 2015 HSBC has assigned ratings on the following basis: The target price is based on the analyst’s assessment of the stock’s actual current value, although we expect it to take six to 12 months for the market price to reflect this. When the target price is more than 20% above the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Buy; when it is between 5% and 20% above the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Buy or a Hold; when it is between 5% below and 5% above the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Hold; when it is between 5% and 20% below the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Hold or a Reduce; and when it is more than 20% below the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Reduce. Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any 'material change' (initiation or resumption of coverage, change in target price or estimates). Upside/Downside is the percentage difference between the target price and the share price. Prior to this date, HSBC’s rating structure was applied on the following basis: For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the cost of equity for that stock’s domestic or, as appropriate, regional market established by our strategy team. The target price for a stock represented the value the analyst expected the stock to reach over our performance horizon. The performance horizon was 12 months. For a stock to be classified as Overweight, the potential return, which equals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price, including the forecast dividend yield when indicated, had to exceed the required return by at least 5 percentage points over the succeeding 12 months (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). For a stock to be classified as Underweight, the stock was expected to underperform its required return by at least 5 percentage points over the succeeding 12 months (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between these bands were classified as Neutral. *A stock was classified as volatile if its historical volatility had exceeded 40%, if the stock had been listed for less than 12 months (unless it was in an industry or sector where volatility is low) or if the analyst expected significant volatility. However, stocks which we did not consider volatile may in fact also have behaved in such a way. Historical volatility was defined as the past month's average of the daily 365-day moving average volatilities. In order to avoid misleadingly frequent changes in rating, however, volatility had to move 2.5 percentage points past the 40% benchmark in either direction for a stock's status to change.
6
EQUITIES ● SEMICONDUCTORS 16 February 2017
????
Rating distribution for long-term investment opportunities As of 15 February 2017, the distribution of all independent ratings published by HSBC is as follows: Buy 45% ( 25% of these provided with Investment Banking Services ) Hold Sell 40% 15% ( 27% of these provided with Investment Banking Services ) ( 18% of these provided with Investment Banking Services )
For the purposes of the distribution above the following mapping structure is used during the transition from the previous to current rating models: under our previous model, Overweight = Buy, Neutral = Hold and Underweight = Sell; under our current model Buy = Buy, Hold = Hold and Reduce = Sell. For rating definitions under both models, please see “Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis” above. For the distribution of non-independent ratings published by HSBC, please see the disclosure page available at http://www.hsbcnet.com/gbm/financial-regulation/investment-recommendations-disclosures. Share price and rating changes for long-term investment opportunities SMIC (0981.HK) share price performance HKD Vs HSBC Rating & target price history rating history From To Overweight (V) Neutral (V) Hold Buy Target price Price 1 Price 2 Price 3 Price 4 Price 5 Price 6 Price 7 Price 8 Price 9 Price 10 Source: HSBC
Date
Analyst Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Analyst Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo
13 11 9 7 5 3 1
Neutral (V) 29 Apr 2014 Hold 04 May 2015 Buy 25 Aug 2015 Hold 08 Nov 2016 Value Date 7.10 07 Aug 2014 7.70 06 Nov 2014 7.50 08 May 2015 8.80 04 Nov 2015 8.81 11 Nov 2015 8.80 19 Feb 2016 9.61 11 Aug 2016 10.50 06 Oct 2016 10.50 16 Jan 2017 10.50 15 Feb 2017
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-16
Source: HSBC
SMIC (SMI.N) share price performance USD Vs HSBC rating history
Feb-17
Feb-15
Rating & target price history From Overweight (V) Neutral (V) Hold Buy Target price Price 1 Price 2 Price 3 Price 4 Price 5 Price 6 Price 7 Price 8 Price 9 Price 10 Source: HSBC
To
Date
Analyst Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Analyst Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo
8
7 6 5 4 3
Neutral (V) 29 Apr 2014 Hold 04 May 2015 Buy 25 Aug 2015 Hold 08 Nov 2016 Value Date 4.58 07 Aug 2014 4.97 06 Nov 2014 4.83 08 May 2015 4.83 12 Aug 2015 5.68 04 Nov 2015 5.68 19 Feb 2016 6.20 11 Aug 2016 6.80 06 Oct 2016 6.80 16 Jan 2017 6.80 15 Feb 2017
2 1
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-16
Source: HSBC
To view a list of all the independent fundamental ratings disseminated by HSBC during the preceding 12-month period, please see the disclosure page available at www.research.hsbc.com/A/Disclosures.
Feb-17
Feb-15
7
EQUITIES ● SEMICONDUCTORS 16 February 2017
????
HSBC & Analyst disclosures Disclosure checklist Company SMIC Source: HSBC
Ticker 0981.HK
Recent price 10.68
Price date 15 Feb 2017
Disclosure 6, 11
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
HSBC has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company within the past 12 months. HSBC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next 3 months. At the time of publication of this report, HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. is a Market Maker in securities issued by this company. As of 31 January 2017 HSBC beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of this company. As of 31 December 2016, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of investment banking services. As of 31 December 2016, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-investment banking securities-related services. As of 31 December 2016, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-securities services. A covering analyst/s has received compensation from this company in the past 12 months. A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household has a financial interest in the securities of this company, as detailed below. A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household is an officer, director or supervisory board member of this company, as detailed below. At the time of publication of this report, HSBC is a non-US Market Maker in securities issued by this company and/or in securities in respect of this company As of 10 February 2017, HSBC beneficially held a net long position of more than 0.5% of this company’s total issued share capital, calculated according to the SSR methodology. As of 15 December 2016, HSBC beneficially held a net short position of more than 0.5% of this company’s total issued share capital, calculated according to the SSR methodology.
HSBC and its affiliates will from time to time sell to and buy from customers the securities/instruments, both equity and debt (including derivatives) of companies covered in HSBC Research on a principal or agency basis. Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking, sales & trading, and principal trading revenues. Whether, or in what time frame, an update of this analysis will be published is not determined in advance. Economic sanctions imposed by the EU and OFAC prohibit transacting or dealing in new debt or equity of Russian SSI entities. This report does not constitute advice in relation to any securities issued by Russian SSI entities on or after July 16 2014 and as such, this report should not be construed as an inducement to transact in any sanctioned securities. For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research. In order to find out more about the proprietary models used to produce this report, please contact the authoring analyst. Additional disclosures 1. This report is dated as at 16 February 2017. 2. All market data included in this report are dated as at close 14 February 2017, unless a different date and/or a specific time of day is indicated in the report. HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking, Principal Trading, and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.
3.
8
EQUITIES ● SEMICONDUCTORS 16 February 2017
????
4.
You are not permitted to use, for reference, any data in this document for the purpose of (i) determining the interest payable, or other sums due, under loan agreements or under other financial contracts or instruments, (ii) determining the price at which a financial instrument may be bought or sold or traded or redeemed, or the value of a financial instrument, and/or (iii) measuring the performance of a financial instrument.
Production & distribution disclosures 1. This report was produced and signed off by the author on 15 Feb 2017 15:51 GMT. 2. In order to see when this report was first disseminated please see the disclosure page available at https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/34/RJNqZgk
9
EQUITIES ● SEMICONDUCTORS 16 February 2017
????
Disclaimer Legal entities as at 1 July 2016 ‘UAE’ HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai; ‘HK’ The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Hong Kong; ‘TW’ HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited; 'CA' HSBC Bank Canada, Toronto; HSBC Bank, Paris Branch; HSBC France; ‘DE’ HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Düsseldorf; 000 HSBC Bank (RR), Moscow; ‘IN’ HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited, Mumbai; ‘JP’ HSBC Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo; ‘EG’ HSBC Securities Egypt SAE, Cairo; ‘CN’ HSBC Investment Bank Asia Limited, Beijing Representative Office; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Branch; HSBC Securities (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, Johannesburg; HSBC Bank plc, London, Madrid, Milan, Stockholm, Tel Aviv; ‘US’ HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, New York; HSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler AS, Istanbul; HSBC México, SA, Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero HSBC; HSBC Bank Australia Limited; HSBC Bank Argentina SA; HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, New Zealand Branch incorporated in Hong Kong SAR; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Bangkok Branch Issuer of report The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Level 19, 1 Queen’s Road Central Hong Kong SAR Telephone: +852 2843 9111 Fax: +852 2596 0200 Website: www.research.hsbc.com
This document has been issued by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (“HSBC”) in the conduct of its Hong Kong regulated business for the information of its institutional and professional investor (as defined by Securities and Future Ordinance (Chapter 571)) customers; it is not intended for and should not be distributed to retail customers in Hong Kong. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. All enquires by recipients in Hong Kong must be directed to your HSBC contact in Hong Kong. If it is received by a customer of an affiliate of HSBC, its provision to the recipient is subject to the terms of business in place between the recipient and such affiliate. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. HSBC has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; HSBC makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of the Research Division of HSBC only and are subject to change without notice. From time to time research analysts conduct site visits of covered issuers. HSBC policies prohibit research analysts from accepting payment or reimbursement for travel expenses from the issuer for such visits. HSBC and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any securities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such securities (or investment). HSBC and its affiliates may act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in the securities of companies discussed in this document (or in related investments), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking or underwriting services for or relating to those companies. HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. accepts responsibility for the content of this research report prepared by its non-US foreign affiliate. All U.S. persons receiving and/or accessing this report and wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so with HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. in the United States and not with its non-US foreign affiliate, the issuer of this report. In the UK this report may only be distributed to persons of a kind described in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005. The protections afforded by the UK regulatory regime are available only to those dealing with a representative of HSBC Bank plc in the UK. In Singapore, this publication is distributed by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch for the general information of institutional investors or other persons specified in Sections 274 and 304 of the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289) (“SFA”) and accredited investors and other persons in accordance with the conditions specified in Sections 275 and 305 of the SFA. This publication is not a prospectus as defined in the SFA. It may not be further distributed in whole or in part for any purpose. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Singapore Branch is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Recipients in Singapore should contact a "Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch" representative in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with this report. In Australia, this publication has been distributed by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (ABN 65 117 925 970, AFSL 301737) for the general information of its “wholesale” customers (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001). Where distributed to retail customers, this research is distributed by HSBC Bank Australia Limited (AFSL No. 232595). These respective entities make no representations that the products or services mentioned in this document are available to persons in Australia or are necessarily suitable for any particular person or appropriate in accordance with local law. No consideration has been given to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. This publication is distributed in New Zealand by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, New Zealand Branch incorporated in Hong Kong SAR. In Japan, this publication has been distributed by HSBC Securities (Japan) Limited. It may not be further distributed in whole or in part for any purpose. In Korea, this publication is distributed by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch ("HBAP SLS") for the general information of professional investors specified in Article 9 of the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act (“FSCMA”). This publication is not a prospectus as defined in the FSCMA. It may not be further distributed in whole or in part for any purpose. HBAP SLS is regulated by the Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service of Korea. In Canada, this document has been distributed by HSBC Bank Canada and/or its affiliates. Where this document contains market updates/overviews, or similar materials (collectively deemed “Commentary” in Canada although other affiliate jurisdictions may term “Commentary” as either “macro-research” or “research”), the Commentary is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to sell or subscribe for, any financial product or instrument (including, without limitation, any currencies, securities, commodities or other financial instruments). © Copyright 2017, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited. MCI (P) 094/06/2016, MCI (P) 085/06/2016 and MCI (P) 062/02/2017
[553619]
10

????
Global Telecoms, Media & Technology Research Team Global Analyst, Global Sector Head Stephen Howard +44 20 7991 6820 stephen.howard@hsbcib.com Europe Analyst Nicolas Cote-Colisson +44 20 7991 6826 nicolas.cote-colisson@hsbcib.com Analyst Antonin Baudry antonin.baudry@hsbc.com Analyst Christopher Johnen christopher.johnen@hsbc.de Analyst Dominik Klarmann, CFA dominik.klarmann@hsbc.de Analyst Luigi Minerva luigi.minerva@hsbcib.com Analyst Olivier Moral olivier.moral@hsbc.com +33 1 56 52 43 25 Analyst Neale Anderson neale.anderson@hsbc.com.hk +49 211 910 2852 Analyst Angela Tay angela.h.y.tay@hsbc.com.sg +49 211 910 2769 Analyst Joyce Chen joycechchen@hsbc.com.tw +44 20 7991 6928 Analyst Jenny Lai jennylai@hsbc.com.tw +33 1 5652 4322 Analyst Carrie Liu carriecfliu@hsbc.com.tw Analyst Bruce Lu bruce.kl.lu@hsbc.com.tw Analyst Steven C Pelayo stevenpelayo@hsbc.com.hk Analyst Ricky Seo rickyjuilseo@kr.hsbc.com Analyst Rajiv Sharma rajivsharma@hsbc.co.in Analyst Darpan Thakkar darpan.thakkar@hsbc.co.in +8862 6631 2864 +8862 6631 2860 Specialist Sales Kubilay Yalcin kubilay.yalcin@hsbc.de +49 211 9104880 +8862 6631 2862 Associate David Huang david.s.huang@hsbc.com.tw +886 2 66312865 +65 6658 0612 Associate Kenneth Shim kennyshim@kr.hsbc.com +822 3706 8779 +852 2996 6716 Associate Wayne Wang wayne.n.wang@hsbc.com.hk +852 2914 9935 Asia Analyst Yogesh Aggarwal yogeshaggarwal@hsbc.co.in Analyst Vivek Gedda vivekgedda@hsbc.co.in Analyst Vikas Ahuja vikasahuja@hsbc.co.in +91 22 2268 1246 Analyst John Liu john.q.liu@hsbc.com.hk Associate Aric Hui ariccshui@hsbc.com.hk Associate Qin Wang qin1.wang@hsbc.com.hk +852 2822 4392 +91 22 6164 0693 +852 2822 3165
+91 22 3396 0690
+852 2822 4393
Analyst Adam Fox-Rumley +44 20 7991 6819 adam.fox-rumley@hsbcib.com Americas Analyst Christopher A Recouso +1 212 525 2279 christopher.a.recouso@us.hsbc.com Analyst Ronny Berger, CFA ronny.berger@hsbc.com Analyst Sunil Rajgopal sunilrajgopal@us.hsbc.com 44 20 7991 2750
Myles McMahon +852 2822 4676 mylesmacmahon@hsbc.com.hk +8862 6631 2861
+852 2822 4391
+822 37068777
+1 212 525 0267
+91 22 2268 1239
Global Emerging Markets (GEMs) Analyst Hervé Drouet herve.drouet@hsbcib.com +44 20 7991 6827
+91 22 6164 0695
Emerging Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) Analyst Ziyad Joosub ziyad.joosub@za.hsbc.com Analyst Eric Chang erichy.chang@hsbc.com +27 11 676 4223
Analyst Piyush Choudhary piyush.choudhary@hsbc.com.sg Analyst Jerry Tsai jerrycytsai@hsbc.com.tw Analyst Chi Tsang chitsang@hsbc.com.hk Analyst Terry Chen terry.q.chen@hsbc.com.hk Analyst Jena Han jenahan@kr.hsbc.com Analyst Will Cho will.cho@kr.hsbc.com
+65 6658 0607
+8862 6631 2863
+971 4 423 6554
+852 2822 2590
+852 2996 6635
+822 3706 8772
+822 3706 8765

中芯国际(00981):Hold,Rapid growth,but messy financials and full valuation

发布机构:汇丰银行
报告类型:公司报告 发布日期:2017/2/16
报告评级:
撰写作者:
报告下载:85 文件类型:PDF文档
Free Down Report 左键点击或右键另存为下载 更多下载地址...

内容简介

16 February 2017
SMIC (0981 HK) Hold: Rapid growth, but messy financials and full valuation
EQUITIES SEMICONDUCTORS Hong Kong
???? ? PREVIOUS TARGET (HKD)
? 4Q16 miss on higher opex, but tax/minority interest helped offset; 1Q17 guidance below, yet 20% growth target remains ? Margin risks from rising depreciation, mix, and competitive pricing pressures remain a key concern ? Retain Hold/HKD10.5: Respectable growth, yet valuation full given ‘blackbox’ P&L, negative FCF and true ‘ongoing’ ROE <10% Messy 4Q16 results: Record high revs (+5.2% q-o-q) were driven by 40nm (+9% q-o-q to 24% of revs), with 28nm ramping to 3.5% of total from 1.4%. A full quarter effect from recent LFoundry acquisition also helped. Despite 17% q-o-q growth in depreciation, gross margin was 30.2%, in line with our 30.1% forecast, and the high end of the 29-30% range. Opex was far above expectations due to higher R&D (with lower subsidies), and lofty employee bonus accrual. Op margin was 6% versus consensus of 12.6%. A tax credit of USD8.5m and higher non-controlling interest helped partially offset and resulted in net profit of USD104m, missing our USD152m forecast and Street at USD119m. EPS was USD0.11, missing our USD0.15 and consensus at USD0.12. 1Q guidance miss, but full year 20% revenue growth target unchanged: 1Q17 revenue was guided down 2-4% q-o-q, versus flattish consensus. Management attributed this to seasonality and weakness from a key fingerprint sensor customer. The company is now rushing to backfill the vacant capacity. 1Q17 gross margins are to range from 25% to 28%, missing consensus of 28.6%. Opex should fall meaningfully q-o-q given less bonus accrual, but the minority interest “add back” will also downtick. Net-net, we lower our 1Q17 net profit forecast by 15% (now 19% below consensus prior to results). Despite the slower start to the year, management reiterated its full year revenue growth target of 20% with gross margins in the mid-tohigh 20%. Given the 2016 gross margin was 29%, it appears that a 50% y-o-y increase in depreciation this year will likely pressure margins. As we wrote in our 16 January note Hold: Outlook softer, but margin risks increasing, we also worry that competitive threats and 4x/28nm pricing pressures may weigh on margins. Hold: Fewer catalysts in 2017: Given management’s 20% growth target has been well flagged, the valuation is more than full, and we see multiple margin headwinds, we are concerned there are limited catalysts for SMIC shares for the foreseeable future. Further, we continue to highlight the ‘predictably unpredictable’ financials. For example, 4Q16 results had R&D grants, bonus accruals, a sales/leaseback transaction, increased debt (with more likely to come), JV partner contributions, and a tax benefit. Free cash flow remains negative and, given annual capex is >2x EBITDA, it will likely remain negative at least through 2020. Our 2017 EPS is unchanged, and our local/ADR TP remains HKD10.50/USD6.8. Given the company is growing rapidly, we switch to a PE multiple (15.1x) valuation from PB – though we note our TP equates to 1.4x PB, which may be lofty given ROE <10%. Our TP implies 7% downside; we maintain our Hold rating.
MAINTAIN HOLD TARGET PRICE (HKD)
10.50 SHARE PRICE (HKD)
10.50 UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE
11.30
(as of 14 Feb 2017)
-7.1% 51,403 6,623 39 Free float BBG RIC 89% 0981 HK 0981.HK
MARKET DATA Market cap (HKDm) Market cap (USDm) 3m ADTV (USDm)
FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (USD) Year to 12/2015a HSBC EPS (per local) 0.06 HSBC EPS (prev) Change (%) Consensus EPS 0.01 PE (x) 24.7 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.1 ROE (%) 7.6 12/2016e 0.08 0.09 -11.1 0.01 18.7 0.0 6.5 9.6 12/2017e 0.09 0.01 16.2 0.0 4.7 9.9 12/2018e 0.10 0.01 14.6 0.0 4.1 9.7
52-WEEK PRICE (HKD) 14.00 7.00 0.00 02/17 High: 12.18 Low: 1.03 Current: 11.30
02/16 Target price: 10.50
08/16
Source: Thomson Reuters IBES, HSBC estimates
Steven Pelayo, CFA Regional Head of Technology Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited stevenpelayo@hsbc.com.hk +852 2822 4391
Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.
Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com
EQUITIES ● SEMICONDUCTORS 16 February 2017
????
Trajectory of upward revenue revisions likely asymptote for the foreseeable future (USDbn) 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.3 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 2016 revs consensus 2016 revs consensus Source: Bloomberg
Trajectory of upward earnings revisions likely slowing too (USDm) 450
400 350
300 250
200 150 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 2016 NI consensus 2017 NI consensus Source: Bloomberg
SMIC - Changes in quarterly forecast vs consensus (USDm) Revs Q-o-q GM% Opex OP OP % Net income EPS (USD/ADS) __________ 4Q16___________ _________ 1Q17e ___________ ___ Diff. 4Q16_____ ___ Diff. 1Q17e ____ Est. Actual Cons. Prior New Cons. vs. Est. vs. Cons. vs. Prior vs. Cons. 836 815 822 821 791 824 -3% -1% -4% -4% 7.9% 5.2% 6.1% -1.7% -2.9% 0.2% -270bps -94bps -115bps -306bps 30.1% 30.2% 29.3% 28.3% 28.1% 28.6% 7bps 91bps -16bps -50bps 133.0 197.0 137.3 139.4 141.8 135.0 48% 43% 2% 5% 118.8 49.0 103.4 92.7 80.6 100.6 -59% -53% -13% -20% 14.2% 6.0% 12.6% 11.3% 10.2% 12.2% -819bps -656bps -111bps -203bps 151.8 104.0 119.1 94.7 80.1 98.9 -31% -13% -15% -19% 0.15 0.10 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.10 -32% -13% -16% -19%
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates and FactSet
SMIC - Changes in annual forecast vs consensus (USDm) Revs Y-o-y GM% Opex OP OP % Net income EPS (USD/ADS) ________ 2016 ________ Est. Actual Cons. 2,935 2,914 2,917 31.2% 30.3% 30.4% 29.1% 29.2% 30.2% 446.7 510.5 502.5 408.7 339.2 379.2 13.9% 11.6% 13.0% 424.2 376.6 379.9 0.44 0.39 0.39 _________ 2017e ___________ ___ Diff. 2016 _____ ___ Diff. 2017e ____ Prior New Cons. vs. Est. vs. Cons. vs. Prior vs. Cons. 3,519 3,547 3,551 -1% 0% 1% 0% 19.9% 21.7% 21.7% -94bps -13bps 180bps -2bps 28.8% 28.6% 30.4% 1bps -107bps -13bps -172bps 562.2 592.3 645.6 14% 2% 5% -8% 450.4 423.7 432.8 -17% -11% -6% -2% 12.8% 11.9% 12.2% -229bps -136bps -85bps -24bps 451.4 453.7 431.9 -11% -1% 1% 5% 0.45 0.45 0.43 -11% -1% 0% 5%
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates and FactSet
SMIC - Quarterly and annual P&L (USDm) Revenue Q-o-q Y-o-y GP GM % Op Profit OM % Non-op income Net profit EPS (USD) 1Q16 634 4.0% 24.4% 154 24.2% 66 10.4% (14) 61 0.07 2Q16 690 8.8% 26.3% 205 29.7% 102 14.8% (21) 85 0.09 3Q16 775 12.3% 36.0% 232 30.0% 109 14.0% 4 114 0.11 4Q16 815 5.2% 33.5% 246 30.2% 49 6.0% 0 104 0.10 1Q17e 791 -2.9% 24.7% 222 28.1% 81 10.2% (7) 80 0.08 2Q17e 880 11.2% 27.5% 251 28.6% 105 11.9% (8) 104 0.10 3Q17e 927 5.4% 19.7% 271 29.2% 128 13.8% (7) 127 0.13 4Q17e 948 2.3% 16.4% 272 28.6% 110 11.6% (7) 142 0.14 2015 2,236 13.5% 683 30.5% 222 9.9% 9 253 0.29 2016 2,914 30.3% 850 29.2% 339 11.6% (29) 377 0.39 2017e 3,547 21.7% 1,016 28.6% 424 11.9% (28) 454 0.45
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates
2
EQUITIES ● SEMICONDUCTORS 16 February 2017
????
Valuation and risks
Forward P/B band for ADR shares USD 12 USD 10 USD 8 USD 6 USD 4 USD 2
Current P/B vs forward ROE 3.0x 15% 10% 5%
2.5x 2.0x 1.5x
1.0x 0.5x 0.0x 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 2.0x
0% -5% -10% 12 13 P/B
USD 0
14
15
16 FTM ROE
17
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates
Forward P/E for ADR shares USD 8 19x 16x 13x
USD 7 USD 6 USD 5 USD 4 USD 3 USD 2 12 Source: Company data, HSBC estimates
10x
13
14
15
16
We view the valuation as mixed. We leave our local/ADR share target prices of HKD10.50/USD6.80 unchanged, which are now based on a 15.1x PE multiple applied to unchanged 2017e EPS of USD0.45 per ADR share, rather than the PB multiple we used previously. We now focus on PE as the main valuation methodology as the company is more a growth story with consistent profitability. We use a PE multiple of 15.1x, the average PE since SMIC has reported consistently positive earnings, reflecting the period 2012-2017. Under our previous methodology, our new TP is the equivalent of 1.4x PB (vs 1.3x PB we used previously) applied to end-4Q17e book value of USD4.92 (vs USD5.25 prior). Our TP implies 7% downside to the current price; we maintain our Hold rating for the reasons we discuss below. On the one side, we note that SMIC shares have traded between 1.0-1.4x P/B over the past few years. And, while the company has now achieved 18 consecutive quarters of sustained profitability and reported ROE has been around 10% in each of the past two quarters, we forecast ROE to peak around current levels. We apply the higher end of SMIC shares’ historical P/B trading band to derive our target price given our confidence in SMIC as more of a pure-play on China chips, as well as the strong revenue outlook. We are hesitant to expand it further given the company has generated negative free cash flow for the past two years, and we think it will remain negative for at least the next two years as well. This implies that the strong growth outlook will likely require continued financing (debt, equity, government subsidy, and/or JV partner capital contributions).
3
EQUITIES ● SEMICONDUCTORS 16 February 2017
????
Given the company is sustainably profitable and growing rapidly, we also look for our ADR fair value target price to be supported on a forward P/E multiple basis. We believe our 15.1x multiple (unchanged) is more than reasonable given it is a slight premium to industry leader TSMC (2330 TT), which is trading at 13.2x PE, yet has better free cash flow, ROE and pays a dividend. Once again, we are willing to assume a premium to peer multiples given SMIC’s rapid growth and perception as a pure play on China chips. So, why not a Reduce rating? We are hesitant to be too negative given that many China tech names, especially those in the A share market, trade at a significantly higher multiple. We also believe investors may be willing to look through the negative free cash flow, so long as the top-line growth remains robust. (Please note the company reports in USD so the local target is based on a 1:5 ADR/local share conversion ratio and a HKD7.75 exchange rate).
Peer comparison Current Target Upside Mcap ___ PE ____ ____ PB ________ ROE ____ _ Div yield __ Company Ticker Rating (local) (local) (%) (USD) 2016 2017e 2016 2017e 2016 2017e 2016 2017e TSMC 2330.TW Hold 187.5 196.0 5% 157,732 14.5 13.4 3.5 3.1 25.6% 24.4% 3.2% 3.7% UMC 2303.TW Hold 11.7 12.0 3% 4,792 17.3 16.0 0.7 0.7 3.7% 4.1% 4.8% 3.8% Vanguard 5347.TWO Reduce 59.3 52.0 -12% 3,153 17.7 17.5 3.5 3.6 19.9% 20.2% 4.4% 4.9% SMIC 0981.HK Hold 11.30 10.50 -7% 6,623 18.7 16.2 1.7 1.5 9.6% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% HHGrace 1347.HK NR 8.88 nm nm 1,247 9.0 10.0 0.8 0.8 8.6% 7.9% 2.6% 2.5% Source: Company data, HSBC estimates, FactSet Priced at close of 14 February 2017
From a peer comparable perspective, SMIC’s valuation is difficult to assess. Trading at 1.5x book value may appear expensive relative to peer UMC (2303 TT), which trades at 0.7x book. However, UMC has more advanced technology and has been shipping a meaningfully higher volume of 28nm wafers for the past few years. On the other end of the spectrum, Vanguard (5347 TT) and TSMC (2330 TT) trade at or above 3.0-3.4x book value. However, both of those companies have clean financials (very few one-time gains from government credits, property sales or JV financing), and generate significantly positive (>20% of revenue) free cash flow (while SMIC will be negative for many years). They also both generate ROEs above 20% and pay a dividend. Net/net, valuing SMIC from a peer perspective is challenging. The growth angle is far ahead of peers, while the ROE story is less than average, and the negative free cash flow poor. Key downside risks: (1) Weaker-than-expected end-demand for electronics products; (2) managing rising depreciation burdens, while still funding and executing next generation 28nm and beyond nodes; (3) ability to sustain or grow ROE on an ongoing basis without non-operating gains; (4) excess inventories resulting in an inventory correction; (5) continued negative free cash flows requiring further financing; and (6) competitive pressures. Key upside risks: Faster revenue growth with controlled capacity additions, stable yields and high utilisations leading to better margins and returns. Additional assistance from the Chinese government in support of domestic semiconductor production initiatives.
4
EQUITIES ● SEMICONDUCTORS 16 February 2017
????
Financials & valuation: SMIC Financial statements Year to Profit & loss summary (USDm) Revenue EBITDA Depreciation & amortisation Operating profit/EBIT Net interest PBT Taxation Net profit Cash flow summary (USDm) Cash flow from operations Capex Cash flow from investment Dividends Change in net debt FCF equity Balance sheet summary (USDm) Tangible fixed assets Current assets Cash & others Total assets Operating liabilities Gross debt Net debt Shareholders' funds Invested capital 2,236 746 -524 222 9 231 -9 253 669 -1,231 -1,333 0 -323 -485 4,525 2,590 1,308 7,115 1,429 1,496 188 3,730 4,378 2,914 1,069 -730 339 -29 310 7 377 964 -2,757 -2,578 0 100 -1,711 6,432 3,684 2,464 10,115 1,564 2,752 289 4,151 6,087 3,547 1,516 -1,092 424 -28 396 -4 454 1,516 -2,400 -2,400 0 182 -916 7,722 4,236 2,768 11,958 1,843 3,239 470 4,974 7,347 3,972 1,811 -1,354 457 -7 450 -10 508 1,811 -2,781 -2,781 0 414 -987 9,149 3,537 1,849 12,686 2,099 2,734 884 5,475 8,737 12/2015a 12/2016e 12/2017e 12/2018e
Hold Valuation data Year to EV/sales EV/EBITDA EV/IC PE* PB FCF yield (%) Dividend yield (%) * Based on HSBC EPS (diluted)
12/2015a 3.0 9.1 1.6 24.7 1.7 -7.3 0.0
12/2016e 2.4 6.5 1.1 18.7 1.7 -25.8 0.0
12/2017e 2.0 4.7 1.0 16.2 1.5 -13.8 0.0
12/2018e 1.9 4.1 0.9 14.6 1.4 -14.9 0.0
Issuer information Share price (HKD) Target price (HKD) Reuters (Equity) Bloomberg (Equity) Market cap (USDm) 11.30 10.50 0981.HK 0981 HK 6,623 Free float Sector Country Analyst Contact 89% Semiconductors Hong Kong Steven Pelayo, CFA +852 2822 4391
Price relative 14.00 14.00
12.00 10.00
12.00 10.00
8.00 6.00 4.00
8.00 6.00 4.00
Ratio, growth and per share analysis Year to Y-o-y % change Revenue EBITDA Operating profit PBT HSBC EPS Ratios (%) Revenue/IC (x) ROIC ROE ROA EBITDA margin Operating profit margin Net debt/equity Net debt/EBITDA (x) Per share data (USD) EPS (diluted per local share) EPS (diluted per ADS) DPS Book value 13.5 9.7 70.5 67.2 38.0 0.5 5.2 7.6 3.3 33.3 9.9 4.5 0.3 0.06 0.29 0.00 0.87 30.3 43.4 52.8 34.2 32.2 0.6 6.6 9.6 4.0 36.7 11.6 5.3 0.3 0.08 0.39 0.00 0.86 21.7 41.8 24.9 27.7 15.3 0.5 6.2 9.9 3.8 42.7 11.9 6.8 0.3 0.09 0.45 0.00 0.98 12.0 19.5 7.8 13.6 11.4 0.5 5.6 9.7 3.6 45.6 11.5 11.3 0.5 0.10 0.50 0.00 1.08 12/2015a 12/2016e 12/2017e 12/2018e
2.00 0.00 2015 SMIC Source: HSBC Note: Priced at close of 14 Feb 2017
2.00 0.00
2016
2017 Rel to HANG SENG INDEX
5
EQUITIES ● SEMICONDUCTORS 16 February 2017
????
Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Steven Pelayo. Important disclosures Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and that investors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used or relied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating systems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the rating because research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts' views and the basis for the rating. From 23rd March 2015 HSBC has assigned ratings on the following basis: The target price is based on the analyst’s assessment of the stock’s actual current value, although we expect it to take six to 12 months for the market price to reflect this. When the target price is more than 20% above the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Buy; when it is between 5% and 20% above the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Buy or a Hold; when it is between 5% below and 5% above the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Hold; when it is between 5% and 20% below the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Hold or a Reduce; and when it is more than 20% below the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Reduce. Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any 'material change' (initiation or resumption of coverage, change in target price or estimates). Upside/Downside is the percentage difference between the target price and the share price. Prior to this date, HSBC’s rating structure was applied on the following basis: For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the cost of equity for that stock’s domestic or, as appropriate, regional market established by our strategy team. The target price for a stock represented the value the analyst expected the stock to reach over our performance horizon. The performance horizon was 12 months. For a stock to be classified as Overweight, the potential return, which equals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price, including the forecast dividend yield when indicated, had to exceed the required return by at least 5 percentage points over the succeeding 12 months (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). For a stock to be classified as Underweight, the stock was expected to underperform its required return by at least 5 percentage points over the succeeding 12 months (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between these bands were classified as Neutral. *A stock was classified as volatile if its historical volatility had exceeded 40%, if the stock had been listed for less than 12 months (unless it was in an industry or sector where volatility is low) or if the analyst expected significant volatility. However, stocks which we did not consider volatile may in fact also have behaved in such a way. Historical volatility was defined as the past month's average of the daily 365-day moving average volatilities. In order to avoid misleadingly frequent changes in rating, however, volatility had to move 2.5 percentage points past the 40% benchmark in either direction for a stock's status to change.
6
EQUITIES ● SEMICONDUCTORS 16 February 2017
????
Rating distribution for long-term investment opportunities As of 15 February 2017, the distribution of all independent ratings published by HSBC is as follows: Buy 45% ( 25% of these provided with Investment Banking Services ) Hold Sell 40% 15% ( 27% of these provided with Investment Banking Services ) ( 18% of these provided with Investment Banking Services )
For the purposes of the distribution above the following mapping structure is used during the transition from the previous to current rating models: under our previous model, Overweight = Buy, Neutral = Hold and Underweight = Sell; under our current model Buy = Buy, Hold = Hold and Reduce = Sell. For rating definitions under both models, please see “Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis” above. For the distribution of non-independent ratings published by HSBC, please see the disclosure page available at http://www.hsbcnet.com/gbm/financial-regulation/investment-recommendations-disclosures. Share price and rating changes for long-term investment opportunities SMIC (0981.HK) share price performance HKD Vs HSBC Rating & target price history rating history From To Overweight (V) Neutral (V) Hold Buy Target price Price 1 Price 2 Price 3 Price 4 Price 5 Price 6 Price 7 Price 8 Price 9 Price 10 Source: HSBC
Date
Analyst Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Analyst Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo
13 11 9 7 5 3 1
Neutral (V) 29 Apr 2014 Hold 04 May 2015 Buy 25 Aug 2015 Hold 08 Nov 2016 Value Date 7.10 07 Aug 2014 7.70 06 Nov 2014 7.50 08 May 2015 8.80 04 Nov 2015 8.81 11 Nov 2015 8.80 19 Feb 2016 9.61 11 Aug 2016 10.50 06 Oct 2016 10.50 16 Jan 2017 10.50 15 Feb 2017
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-16
Source: HSBC
SMIC (SMI.N) share price performance USD Vs HSBC rating history
Feb-17
Feb-15
Rating & target price history From Overweight (V) Neutral (V) Hold Buy Target price Price 1 Price 2 Price 3 Price 4 Price 5 Price 6 Price 7 Price 8 Price 9 Price 10 Source: HSBC
To
Date
Analyst Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Analyst Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo Steven Pelayo
8
7 6 5 4 3
Neutral (V) 29 Apr 2014 Hold 04 May 2015 Buy 25 Aug 2015 Hold 08 Nov 2016 Value Date 4.58 07 Aug 2014 4.97 06 Nov 2014 4.83 08 May 2015 4.83 12 Aug 2015 5.68 04 Nov 2015 5.68 19 Feb 2016 6.20 11 Aug 2016 6.80 06 Oct 2016 6.80 16 Jan 2017 6.80 15 Feb 2017
2 1
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-16
Source: HSBC
To view a list of all the independent fundamental ratings disseminated by HSBC during the preceding 12-month period, please see the disclosure page available at www.research.hsbc.com/A/Disclosures.
Feb-17
Feb-15
7
EQUITIES ● SEMICONDUCTORS 16 February 2017
????
HSBC & Analyst disclosures Disclosure checklist Company SMIC Source: HSBC
Ticker 0981.HK
Recent price 10.68
Price date 15 Feb 2017
Disclosure 6, 11
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
HSBC has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company within the past 12 months. HSBC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next 3 months. At the time of publication of this report, HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. is a Market Maker in securities issued by this company. As of 31 January 2017 HSBC beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of this company. As of 31 December 2016, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of investment banking services. As of 31 December 2016, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-investment banking securities-related services. As of 31 December 2016, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-securities services. A covering analyst/s has received compensation from this company in the past 12 months. A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household has a financial interest in the securities of this company, as detailed below. A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household is an officer, director or supervisory board member of this company, as detailed below. At the time of publication of this report, HSBC is a non-US Market Maker in securities issued by this company and/or in securities in respect of this company As of 10 February 2017, HSBC beneficially held a net long position of more than 0.5% of this company’s total issued share capital, calculated according to the SSR methodology. As of 15 December 2016, HSBC beneficially held a net short position of more than 0.5% of this company’s total issued share capital, calculated according to the SSR methodology.
HSBC and its affiliates will from time to time sell to and buy from customers the securities/instruments, both equity and debt (including derivatives) of companies covered in HSBC Research on a principal or agency basis. Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking, sales & trading, and principal trading revenues. Whether, or in what time frame, an update of this analysis will be published is not determined in advance. Economic sanctions imposed by the EU and OFAC prohibit transacting or dealing in new debt or equity of Russian SSI entities. This report does not constitute advice in relation to any securities issued by Russian SSI entities on or after July 16 2014 and as such, this report should not be construed as an inducement to transact in any sanctioned securities. For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research. In order to find out more about the proprietary models used to produce this report, please contact the authoring analyst. Additional disclosures 1. This report is dated as at 16 February 2017. 2. All market data included in this report are dated as at close 14 February 2017, unless a different date and/or a specific time of day is indicated in the report. HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking, Principal Trading, and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.
3.
8
EQUITIES ● SEMICONDUCTORS 16 February 2017
????
4.
You are not permitted to use, for reference, any data in this document for the purpose of (i) determining the interest payable, or other sums due, under loan agreements or under other financial contracts or instruments, (ii) determining the price at which a financial instrument may be bought or sold or traded or redeemed, or the value of a financial instrument, and/or (iii) measuring the performance of a financial instrument.
Production & distribution disclosures 1. This report was produced and signed off by the author on 15 Feb 2017 15:51 GMT. 2. In order to see when this report was first disseminated please see the disclosure page available at https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/34/RJNqZgk
9
EQUITIES ● SEMICONDUCTORS 16 February 2017
????
Disclaimer Legal entities as at 1 July 2016 ‘UAE’ HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai; ‘HK’ The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Hong Kong; ‘TW’ HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited; 'CA' HSBC Bank Canada, Toronto; HSBC Bank, Paris Branch; HSBC France; ‘DE’ HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Düsseldorf; 000 HSBC Bank (RR), Moscow; ‘IN’ HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited, Mumbai; ‘JP’ HSBC Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo; ‘EG’ HSBC Securities Egypt SAE, Cairo; ‘CN’ HSBC Investment Bank Asia Limited, Beijing Representative Office; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Branch; HSBC Securities (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, Johannesburg; HSBC Bank plc, London, Madrid, Milan, Stockholm, Tel Aviv; ‘US’ HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, New York; HSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler AS, Istanbul; HSBC México, SA, Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero HSBC; HSBC Bank Australia Limited; HSBC Bank Argentina SA; HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, New Zealand Branch incorporated in Hong Kong SAR; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Bangkok Branch Issuer of report The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Level 19, 1 Queen’s Road Central Hong Kong SAR Telephone: +852 2843 9111 Fax: +852 2596 0200 Website: www.research.hsbc.com
This document has been issued by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (“HSBC”) in the conduct of its Hong Kong regulated business for the information of its institutional and professional investor (as defined by Securities and Future Ordinance (Chapter 571)) customers; it is not intended for and should not be distributed to retail customers in Hong Kong. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. All enquires by recipients in Hong Kong must be directed to your HSBC contact in Hong Kong. If it is received by a customer of an affiliate of HSBC, its provision to the recipient is subject to the terms of business in place between the recipient and such affiliate. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. HSBC has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; HSBC makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of the Research Division of HSBC only and are subject to change without notice. From time to time research analysts conduct site visits of covered issuers. HSBC policies prohibit research analysts from accepting payment or reimbursement for travel expenses from the issuer for such visits. HSBC and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any securities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such securities (or investment). HSBC and its affiliates may act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in the securities of companies discussed in this document (or in related investments), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking or underwriting services for or relating to those companies. HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. accepts responsibility for the content of this research report prepared by its non-US foreign affiliate. All U.S. persons receiving and/or accessing this report and wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so with HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. in the United States and not with its non-US foreign affiliate, the issuer of this report. In the UK this report may only be distributed to persons of a kind described in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005. The protections afforded by the UK regulatory regime are available only to those dealing with a representative of HSBC Bank plc in the UK. In Singapore, this publication is distributed by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch for the general information of institutional investors or other persons specified in Sections 274 and 304 of the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289) (“SFA”) and accredited investors and other persons in accordance with the conditions specified in Sections 275 and 305 of the SFA. This publication is not a prospectus as defined in the SFA. It may not be further distributed in whole or in part for any purpose. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Singapore Branch is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Recipients in Singapore should contact a "Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch" representative in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with this report. In Australia, this publication has been distributed by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (ABN 65 117 925 970, AFSL 301737) for the general information of its “wholesale” customers (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001). Where distributed to retail customers, this research is distributed by HSBC Bank Australia Limited (AFSL No. 232595). These respective entities make no representations that the products or services mentioned in this document are available to persons in Australia or are necessarily suitable for any particular person or appropriate in accordance with local law. No consideration has been given to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. This publication is distributed in New Zealand by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, New Zealand Branch incorporated in Hong Kong SAR. In Japan, this publication has been distributed by HSBC Securities (Japan) Limited. It may not be further distributed in whole or in part for any purpose. In Korea, this publication is distributed by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch ("HBAP SLS") for the general information of professional investors specified in Article 9 of the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act (“FSCMA”). This publication is not a prospectus as defined in the FSCMA. It may not be further distributed in whole or in part for any purpose. HBAP SLS is regulated by the Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service of Korea. In Canada, this document has been distributed by HSBC Bank Canada and/or its affiliates. Where this document contains market updates/overviews, or similar materials (collectively deemed “Commentary” in Canada although other affiliate jurisdictions may term “Commentary” as either “macro-research” or “research”), the Commentary is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to sell or subscribe for, any financial product or instrument (including, without limitation, any currencies, securities, commodities or other financial instruments). © Copyright 2017, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited. MCI (P) 094/06/2016, MCI (P) 085/06/2016 and MCI (P) 062/02/2017
[553619]
10

????
Global Telecoms, Media & Technology Research Team Global Analyst, Global Sector Head Stephen Howard +44 20 7991 6820 stephen.howard@hsbcib.com Europe Analyst Nicolas Cote-Colisson +44 20 7991 6826 nicolas.cote-colisson@hsbcib.com Analyst Antonin Baudry antonin.baudry@hsbc.com Analyst Christopher Johnen christopher.johnen@hsbc.de Analyst Dominik Klarmann, CFA dominik.klarmann@hsbc.de Analyst Luigi Minerva luigi.minerva@hsbcib.com Analyst Olivier Moral olivier.moral@hsbc.com +33 1 56 52 43 25 Analyst Neale Anderson neale.anderson@hsbc.com.hk +49 211 910 2852 Analyst Angela Tay angela.h.y.tay@hsbc.com.sg +49 211 910 2769 Analyst Joyce Chen joycechchen@hsbc.com.tw +44 20 7991 6928 Analyst Jenny Lai jennylai@hsbc.com.tw +33 1 5652 4322 Analyst Carrie Liu carriecfliu@hsbc.com.tw Analyst Bruce Lu bruce.kl.lu@hsbc.com.tw Analyst Steven C Pelayo stevenpelayo@hsbc.com.hk Analyst Ricky Seo rickyjuilseo@kr.hsbc.com Analyst Rajiv Sharma rajivsharma@hsbc.co.in Analyst Darpan Thakkar darpan.thakkar@hsbc.co.in +8862 6631 2864 +8862 6631 2860 Specialist Sales Kubilay Yalcin kubilay.yalcin@hsbc.de +49 211 9104880 +8862 6631 2862 Associate David Huang david.s.huang@hsbc.com.tw +886 2 66312865 +65 6658 0612 Associate Kenneth Shim kennyshim@kr.hsbc.com +822 3706 8779 +852 2996 6716 Associate Wayne Wang wayne.n.wang@hsbc.com.hk +852 2914 9935 Asia Analyst Yogesh Aggarwal yogeshaggarwal@hsbc.co.in Analyst Vivek Gedda vivekgedda@hsbc.co.in Analyst Vikas Ahuja vikasahuja@hsbc.co.in +91 22 2268 1246 Analyst John Liu john.q.liu@hsbc.com.hk Associate Aric Hui ariccshui@hsbc.com.hk Associate Qin Wang qin1.wang@hsbc.com.hk +852 2822 4392 +91 22 6164 0693 +852 2822 3165
+91 22 3396 0690
+852 2822 4393
Analyst Adam Fox-Rumley +44 20 7991 6819 adam.fox-rumley@hsbcib.com Americas Analyst Christopher A Recouso +1 212 525 2279 christopher.a.recouso@us.hsbc.com Analyst Ronny Berger, CFA ronny.berger@hsbc.com Analyst Sunil Rajgopal sunilrajgopal@us.hsbc.com 44 20 7991 2750
Myles McMahon +852 2822 4676 mylesmacmahon@hsbc.com.hk +8862 6631 2861
+852 2822 4391
+822 37068777
+1 212 525 0267
+91 22 2268 1239
Global Emerging Markets (GEMs) Analyst Hervé Drouet herve.drouet@hsbcib.com +44 20 7991 6827
+91 22 6164 0695
Emerging Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) Analyst Ziyad Joosub ziyad.joosub@za.hsbc.com Analyst Eric Chang erichy.chang@hsbc.com +27 11 676 4223
Analyst Piyush Choudhary piyush.choudhary@hsbc.com.sg Analyst Jerry Tsai jerrycytsai@hsbc.com.tw Analyst Chi Tsang chitsang@hsbc.com.hk Analyst Terry Chen terry.q.chen@hsbc.com.hk Analyst Jena Han jenahan@kr.hsbc.com Analyst Will Cho will.cho@kr.hsbc.com
+65 6658 0607
+8862 6631 2863
+971 4 423 6554
+852 2822 2590
+852 2996 6635
+822 3706 8772
+822 3706 8765

最新报告

公司报告 徐工机械(000425):行业触底回暖,公司产销两旺高增长-更新报告 17:44
公司报告 江铃汽车(000550):由商转乘,全顺为底,乘胜追击-专题报告 17:44
公司报告 大冷股份(000530):收购集团资产,增厚公司业绩-事件点评 17:44
公司报告 新海宜(002089):把握电动物流车风口,抓住最具弹性标的-电动物流车系列… 17:44
公司报告 中泰化学(002092):定增项目提升产品结构和电石自给能力 17:44
公司报告 兔宝宝(002043):新股权激励出炉,彰显公司业绩增长信心-公告点评 17:44
公司报告 九阳股份(002242):渠道优化效果体现,单季收入增长加快-公告点评 17:44
公司报告 九阳股份(002242):主营重回增长,业绩表现靓丽-公司事件点评报告 17:44
公司报告 澳洋顺昌(002245):一季度业绩大幅预增,LED领头锂电随后-业绩预告点评 17:44
公司报告 九阳股份(002242):2016年收入增长偏慢-业绩预览 17:44
公司报告 新北洋(002376):业绩快速增长,金融、物流信息化产品有望持续放量-公司… 17:44
公司报告 海宁皮城(002344):主业稳步推进,多元布局新亮点-更新报告 17:44
公司报告 奇正藏药(002287):业绩基本符合预期,看好公司二线品种的潜力-业绩快报… 17:44
公司报告 英唐智控(300131):产业链整合助推业绩高增长,加快建设电子信息垂直生… 17:44
公司报告 英唐智控(300131):转型分销,初见成效-公司年报点评 17:44
公司报告 浙江美大(002677):公司业绩持续向好,主营业务未来可期-公司动态报告 17:44
公司报告 福能股份(600483):深度布局风电、配售电,资产注入进行中-公司深度报告… 17:44

同类报告

公司报告 徐工机械(000425):行业触底回暖,公司产销两旺高增长-更新报告 17:44
公司报告 江铃汽车(000550):由商转乘,全顺为底,乘胜追击-专题报告 17:44
公司报告 大冷股份(000530):收购集团资产,增厚公司业绩-事件点评 17:44
公司报告 新海宜(002089):把握电动物流车风口,抓住最具弹性标的-电动物流车系列… 17:44
公司报告 中泰化学(002092):定增项目提升产品结构和电石自给能力 17:44
公司报告 兔宝宝(002043):新股权激励出炉,彰显公司业绩增长信心-公告点评 17:44
公司报告 九阳股份(002242):渠道优化效果体现,单季收入增长加快-公告点评 17:44
公司报告 九阳股份(002242):主营重回增长,业绩表现靓丽-公司事件点评报告 17:44
公司报告 澳洋顺昌(002245):一季度业绩大幅预增,LED领头锂电随后-业绩预告点评 17:44
公司报告 九阳股份(002242):2016年收入增长偏慢-业绩预览 17:44
公司报告 新北洋(002376):业绩快速增长,金融、物流信息化产品有望持续放量-公司… 17:44
公司报告 海宁皮城(002344):主业稳步推进,多元布局新亮点-更新报告 17:44
公司报告 奇正藏药(002287):业绩基本符合预期,看好公司二线品种的潜力-业绩快报… 17:44
公司报告 英唐智控(300131):产业链整合助推业绩高增长,加快建设电子信息垂直生… 17:44
公司报告 英唐智控(300131):转型分销,初见成效-公司年报点评 17:44

Copyright © 2006 - 2013 Panlv.Net All Rights Reserved