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[2008-01-07]华锐铸钢新股报告

2007-1-8 8621 63295590 liujing4@cjsc.com.cn SZ002204
2007.09.30 ( A /B ) ( ) 61.59 1.67 16000
06 PE PEG 46.3 0.7 06 PE PEG 40.9 2.84
07 66.4 2.6 07 34.7 1.95
08 49.5 1.44 08 28.7 1.35
EPS 0.569 0.662 35 40
19.92
22.76
2005A 388.02 ( ( ( ) ) 26.11 ) 0.549 29.98%
2006A 518.15 33.5% 52.86 102.4% 1.110 37.83%
2007E 617.63 19.2% 92.97 75.9% 0.581 26.94%
c
k
19.92 22.76 2008 2009 2008
2008E 755.37 22.3% 121.67 30.9% 0.760 26.07%
c c
c d d c c c
 c c
c
k
d
c d c c d

c c
c c c c c c c c c
                               
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 2007 1-9
..........................................................................1 ..................................................................2 ..................................................2 ......................................................................2 .....................................................................4 ......................................................4 ..................................................................................5 ..................................................................7 ......................................................7 ................................................................................................7 ........................................................................................8 ................................................................................9 ......................................................3 ..................................................................3 ..........................................................6 ..........................................................6 ..............................................................................7
c c c c d      
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c
c
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c c d
c c c c
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d d c c 30 9 120MN 3
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c c
d 3150
c d
d c
2
3
15.1
1
8.2
2 1 2
2005
20.5 200
2000
6.3
2005 2000
2002
2006 60,000 11.2
11.7% 13.5% 2010
2 2006 77.8% 8.59 30 250 ,
4.84
2010 0.94 310
150 7.8 1.28
4.6
2006 20.7% 0.33 30 220 110 2010
2.6
150 2.4
1.7 682
2006
1.1% 2010 1,800
4,000
3,070 2006
1
0.7
186
0.3% 2010 3,000 ,
600 15 4.5
10 3
40% 12 20% 3
2006
2006
1,452
2007—2010 8000 4000 12000 3000
2011—2015 13000 24000 37000 7400
4
d
d
c
d
d
c
d
c
c
c
c
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d
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c
c c c c c d c c c c d  c c c d  c r c c q
2
1
2 1 100%
c  c c c
d c c
c c c c c c
c
d c c 2.6 2
c d c
c 1.8 1.5
c 1.5 1.5
d d c c 26450
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0000000000000000 2005 2006 2007 1-9 0
0000000000000000 0 2004
000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 3
2007
10000
20000
30000
1.5 2006 6
5
1-9
2007
1-9
2004
2.6
2.5 2.5 38632.89 3847.09
2
2005
2005
2.5 2.5 3
1.8
14613
2782
9055
2004
2005
20000
40000
60000
3.2
2.8 3.1 25600 13901 2792 8907
d d 8
d
d
c c c c c c
c
c c
c
c
c
c
c c
d d c c d d
d d d d c 2005 2.6 1.8 2006
d  c d c 
d    c U& c c  d c d d
7
5.5M
6.3M
160
100
c
 c
1
17,335.23 6,644 6,181.75
33.05%
2004-2006 2006 18,033.39
3 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007
2 2006 2006 11 2006 4,509.48 2005 · 18,000 19,089.55 98.50%
2007
2007
58.12% 41.88% 4 30000
1.39:1
20000
10000
0 2004 2005 2006 2007 9 30
2
1
d
d d
c d
d
c c
d
c
d
c c
1 , 86.69% 2006 11 2006 30 , ? 18,033.39 2007 2007 2 2007 1 9 2006 2005 24,351.91 5,225.18 2006
9
30
5 60000
40000
20000
0 2004 2005 2006 2007 1-9
2
8 2007 1-9
2006
2005
2004
8053.04 8825.60 6181.75
----
6215.78 6868.00 5225.18
64.34% 107.10% 107.08%
3782.36 3316.33 2523.32
217.89% 148.24% 124.44%
1189.83 1335.95 1124.26
9 2007 1-9 2006 12201.40 93.74 2005 6927.27 90.87 2004 3454.75 156.00 12602.15 44.90 -
5,400 10 39,200 5,400 4
5
1.5
[2007]95 12,800 1,800 11,000 1.5
d d 33,800
d c d
c d d
d d
2007 1-9
3
[2007]96
1
1 2 3 24% 25%
11 2005A 2006A 2007E 2008E 2009E
38802.3109
51815.09069 33.5%
61,763.6 19.2% 46,878.6 18.6% 14,614.3 0.0 879.1 4,577.3 1,162.5 7,995.4 7,995.4 -1,301.1 9,296.6 75.9% 16,000 0.581
75,536.9 22.3% 57,710.2 23.1% 17,495.6 0.0 1,075.2 5,598.0 1,267.0 9,555.4 9,555.4 -2,611.1 12,166.6 30.9% 214,00 0.569
90,417.6 19.7% 68,446.1 18.6% 21,575.2 0.0 1,287.0 6,700.8 1,374.4 12,213.0 12,213.0 -1,946.7 14,159.8 16.4% 21,400 0.662
31784.1664
39519.95344 24.3%
6845.09985 0 670.764397 2158.31876 145.483579 3870.53311 3404.50612 793.014974 2611.49114 #DIV/0! 4760
12068.03036 0 737.519183 3840.001436 1213.998566 6276.511175 6928.722333 1642.867687 5285.854646 102.4% 4760 1.110
EPS
0.549
3269.67124 0 3813.82036 2472.48911 0 0 9998.55471 0 2661.6782 0 12710.451 4000 7266.33149 0 117.262218 19380.4288
4959.867383 0 7259.730075 7.677676 0 0 14015.06771 0 3020.424805 0 17103.58632 3200 12421.51713 0 -1923.418757 20367.37858
22894.9 0.0 8653.6 9.2 0.0 0.0 33705.6 0.0 7977.9 4500.0 46724.5 3200.0 14734.4 0.0 (675.1) 25451.8
37954.7 0.0 1906.2 11.2 0.0 0.0 51187.9 0.0 12831.4 4000.0 68510.3 3200.0 18138.9 0.0 (675.1) 31070.9
55085.0 0.0 2012.9 13.4 0.0 0.0 70942.1 0.0 17549.3 3500.0 92432.4 3200.0 21513.3 0.0 (675.1) 36833.3
d 20%
d
d d
d
c
0 19380.4288 4760 68.2 873.3 3009.96912 8711.5251 28091.9539
18000 38367.37858 4760 105.4 1813.9 7294.614715 13973.8789 52341.25748
22000.0 47451.8 16000.0 105.4 1813.9 16591.2 34510.4 81962.2
26000.0 57070.9 16000.0 105.4 1813.9 28757.7 46677.0 103747.9
30000.0 66833.3 16000.0 105.4 1813.9 42917.5 60836.8 127670.0
3135.81375 -3075.79105 -1399.75202 -1399.75202
5062.107901 -2299.358381 -1072.553374 -1072.553374
13857.5 -10000.0 14077.5 17935.0
17326.9 -5000.0 2733.0 15059.9
19504.6 -5000.0 2625.6 17130.2
2
12 06A 2008-01-03 2008-01-03 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 000595 000777 002026 002046 002101 002122 002164 600114 600382 600566 600592 600765 601002 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 wind 20.85 16.46 9.52 41.04 10.25 16.46 27.00 157.82 27.54 9.60 15.75 9.90 21.58 44.34 10.73 0.2834 0.2290 0.0480 0.0773 0.2290 0.4000 0.5100 1.8500 0.4405 0.0087 0.3400 0.0841 0.5280 0.1160 0.1710 07E
0.4292 0.4432 0.0000 0.0000 0.2222 0.4432 0.0000 1.9748 0.4148 0.1809 0.0000 0.0000 0.6216 1.1056 0.1513
12 35 40
2008 A
2009 19.92 22.76 /
44
c
d
k
d 08E 0.6302 0.5638 0.0000 0.0000 0.3333 0.5638 0.0000 3.3115 0.5569 0.2916 0.0000 0.0000 0.7531 1.1066 0.2664 09E 0.8583 0.8144 0.0000 0.0000 0.4074 0.5333 0.0000 4.4636 0.8144 0.3888 0.0000 0.0000 0.9147 1.9439 0.3624 06A 39.93 41.32 108.57 132.87 19.33 41.32 34.71 0.00 0.00 20.48 36.52 58.75 30.94 123.77 0.00 07E 64.83 53.07 0.00 0.00 46.13 37.14 0.00 79.92 66.39 53.07 0.00 0.00 34.72 40.10 70.92 08E 44.15 40.07 0.00 0.00 30.75 29.19 0.00 47.66 49.45 32.92 0.00 0.00 28.65 40.07 40.28 09E 32.42 29.61 0.00 0.00 25.16 30.86 0.00 35.36 33.82 24.69 0.00 0.00 23.59 22.81 29.61
c
k
c 32 2008
200002 430015
130 8
5 (8621)63217917 FAX (8621)33130730
TEL E-mail ( ) E-mail
yangjf@cjsc.com.cn FAX (8621)51062920 guihm@cjsc.com.cn
TEL (8621)63516121
12 ,
/
12 , 10% 5% 10% -5% 5% -5%
/
http:// www.cjsc.com.cn
d
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[2008-01-07]华锐铸钢新股报告

发布机构:
报告类型:公司研究 发布日期:2008/1/7
报告评级:
撰写作者:
报告下载:2656 文件类型:PDF文档
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内容简介

2007-1-8 8621 63295590 liujing4@cjsc.com.cn SZ002204
2007.09.30 ( A /B ) ( ) 61.59 1.67 16000
06 PE PEG 46.3 0.7 06 PE PEG 40.9 2.84
07 66.4 2.6 07 34.7 1.95
08 49.5 1.44 08 28.7 1.35
EPS 0.569 0.662 35 40
19.92
22.76
2005A 388.02 ( ( ( ) ) 26.11 ) 0.549 29.98%
2006A 518.15 33.5% 52.86 102.4% 1.110 37.83%
2007E 617.63 19.2% 92.97 75.9% 0.581 26.94%
c
k
19.92 22.76 2008 2009 2008
2008E 755.37 22.3% 121.67 30.9% 0.760 26.07%
c c
c d d c c c
 c c
c
k
d
c d c c d

c c
c c c c c c c c c
                               
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 2007 1-9
..........................................................................1 ..................................................................2 ..................................................2 ......................................................................2 .....................................................................4 ......................................................4 ..................................................................................5 ..................................................................7 ......................................................7 ................................................................................................7 ........................................................................................8 ................................................................................9 ......................................................3 ..................................................................3 ..........................................................6 ..........................................................6 ..............................................................................7
c c c c d      
d d c     r q
c
c
d
c c d
c c c c
d c 1
d d c c 30 9 120MN 3
q d
d 60MN 300 1
r c
d c c 5
c c
d 3150
c d
d c
2
3
15.1
1
8.2
2 1 2
2005
20.5 200
2000
6.3
2005 2000
2002
2006 60,000 11.2
11.7% 13.5% 2010
2 2006 77.8% 8.59 30 250 ,
4.84
2010 0.94 310
150 7.8 1.28
4.6
2006 20.7% 0.33 30 220 110 2010
2.6
150 2.4
1.7 682
2006
1.1% 2010 1,800
4,000
3,070 2006
1
0.7
186
0.3% 2010 3,000 ,
600 15 4.5
10 3
40% 12 20% 3
2006
2006
1,452
2007—2010 8000 4000 12000 3000
2011—2015 13000 24000 37000 7400
4
d
d
c
d
d
c
d
c
c
c
c
d d c
d
c
d
d
d c d
c
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d
c
c
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c
c

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c c
c
c c c c c d c c c c d  c c c d  c r c c q
2
1
2 1 100%
c  c c c
d c c
c c c c c c
c
d c c 2.6 2
c d c
c 1.8 1.5
c 1.5 1.5
d d c c 26450
d
c 51385.73 8905.75 35000
0000000000000000 2005 2006 2007 1-9 0
0000000000000000 0 2004
000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 3
2007
10000
20000
30000
1.5 2006 6
5
1-9
2007
1-9
2004
2.6
2.5 2.5 38632.89 3847.09
2
2005
2005
2.5 2.5 3
1.8
14613
2782
9055
2004
2005
20000
40000
60000
3.2
2.8 3.1 25600 13901 2792 8907
d d 8
d
d
c c c c c c
c
c c
c
c
c
c
c c
d d c c d d
d d d d c 2005 2.6 1.8 2006
d  c d c 
d    c U& c c  d c d d
7
5.5M
6.3M
160
100
c
 c
1
17,335.23 6,644 6,181.75
33.05%
2004-2006 2006 18,033.39
3 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007
2 2006 2006 11 2006 4,509.48 2005 · 18,000 19,089.55 98.50%
2007
2007
58.12% 41.88% 4 30000
1.39:1
20000
10000
0 2004 2005 2006 2007 9 30
2
1
d
d d
c d
d
c c
d
c
d
c c
1 , 86.69% 2006 11 2006 30 , ? 18,033.39 2007 2007 2 2007 1 9 2006 2005 24,351.91 5,225.18 2006
9
30
5 60000
40000
20000
0 2004 2005 2006 2007 1-9
2
8 2007 1-9
2006
2005
2004
8053.04 8825.60 6181.75
----
6215.78 6868.00 5225.18
64.34% 107.10% 107.08%
3782.36 3316.33 2523.32
217.89% 148.24% 124.44%
1189.83 1335.95 1124.26
9 2007 1-9 2006 12201.40 93.74 2005 6927.27 90.87 2004 3454.75 156.00 12602.15 44.90 -
5,400 10 39,200 5,400 4
5
1.5
[2007]95 12,800 1,800 11,000 1.5
d d 33,800
d c d
c d d
d d
2007 1-9
3
[2007]96
1
1 2 3 24% 25%
11 2005A 2006A 2007E 2008E 2009E
38802.3109
51815.09069 33.5%
61,763.6 19.2% 46,878.6 18.6% 14,614.3 0.0 879.1 4,577.3 1,162.5 7,995.4 7,995.4 -1,301.1 9,296.6 75.9% 16,000 0.581
75,536.9 22.3% 57,710.2 23.1% 17,495.6 0.0 1,075.2 5,598.0 1,267.0 9,555.4 9,555.4 -2,611.1 12,166.6 30.9% 214,00 0.569
90,417.6 19.7% 68,446.1 18.6% 21,575.2 0.0 1,287.0 6,700.8 1,374.4 12,213.0 12,213.0 -1,946.7 14,159.8 16.4% 21,400 0.662
31784.1664
39519.95344 24.3%
6845.09985 0 670.764397 2158.31876 145.483579 3870.53311 3404.50612 793.014974 2611.49114 #DIV/0! 4760
12068.03036 0 737.519183 3840.001436 1213.998566 6276.511175 6928.722333 1642.867687 5285.854646 102.4% 4760 1.110
EPS
0.549
3269.67124 0 3813.82036 2472.48911 0 0 9998.55471 0 2661.6782 0 12710.451 4000 7266.33149 0 117.262218 19380.4288
4959.867383 0 7259.730075 7.677676 0 0 14015.06771 0 3020.424805 0 17103.58632 3200 12421.51713 0 -1923.418757 20367.37858
22894.9 0.0 8653.6 9.2 0.0 0.0 33705.6 0.0 7977.9 4500.0 46724.5 3200.0 14734.4 0.0 (675.1) 25451.8
37954.7 0.0 1906.2 11.2 0.0 0.0 51187.9 0.0 12831.4 4000.0 68510.3 3200.0 18138.9 0.0 (675.1) 31070.9
55085.0 0.0 2012.9 13.4 0.0 0.0 70942.1 0.0 17549.3 3500.0 92432.4 3200.0 21513.3 0.0 (675.1) 36833.3
d 20%
d
d d
d
c
0 19380.4288 4760 68.2 873.3 3009.96912 8711.5251 28091.9539
18000 38367.37858 4760 105.4 1813.9 7294.614715 13973.8789 52341.25748
22000.0 47451.8 16000.0 105.4 1813.9 16591.2 34510.4 81962.2
26000.0 57070.9 16000.0 105.4 1813.9 28757.7 46677.0 103747.9
30000.0 66833.3 16000.0 105.4 1813.9 42917.5 60836.8 127670.0
3135.81375 -3075.79105 -1399.75202 -1399.75202
5062.107901 -2299.358381 -1072.553374 -1072.553374
13857.5 -10000.0 14077.5 17935.0
17326.9 -5000.0 2733.0 15059.9
19504.6 -5000.0 2625.6 17130.2
2
12 06A 2008-01-03 2008-01-03 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 000595 000777 002026 002046 002101 002122 002164 600114 600382 600566 600592 600765 601002 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 2008-01-04 wind 20.85 16.46 9.52 41.04 10.25 16.46 27.00 157.82 27.54 9.60 15.75 9.90 21.58 44.34 10.73 0.2834 0.2290 0.0480 0.0773 0.2290 0.4000 0.5100 1.8500 0.4405 0.0087 0.3400 0.0841 0.5280 0.1160 0.1710 07E
0.4292 0.4432 0.0000 0.0000 0.2222 0.4432 0.0000 1.9748 0.4148 0.1809 0.0000 0.0000 0.6216 1.1056 0.1513
12 35 40
2008 A
2009 19.92 22.76 /
44
c
d
k
d 08E 0.6302 0.5638 0.0000 0.0000 0.3333 0.5638 0.0000 3.3115 0.5569 0.2916 0.0000 0.0000 0.7531 1.1066 0.2664 09E 0.8583 0.8144 0.0000 0.0000 0.4074 0.5333 0.0000 4.4636 0.8144 0.3888 0.0000 0.0000 0.9147 1.9439 0.3624 06A 39.93 41.32 108.57 132.87 19.33 41.32 34.71 0.00 0.00 20.48 36.52 58.75 30.94 123.77 0.00 07E 64.83 53.07 0.00 0.00 46.13 37.14 0.00 79.92 66.39 53.07 0.00 0.00 34.72 40.10 70.92 08E 44.15 40.07 0.00 0.00 30.75 29.19 0.00 47.66 49.45 32.92 0.00 0.00 28.65 40.07 40.28 09E 32.42 29.61 0.00 0.00 25.16 30.86 0.00 35.36 33.82 24.69 0.00 0.00 23.59 22.81 29.61
c
k
c 32 2008
200002 430015
130 8
5 (8621)63217917 FAX (8621)33130730
TEL E-mail ( ) E-mail
yangjf@cjsc.com.cn FAX (8621)51062920 guihm@cjsc.com.cn
TEL (8621)63516121
12 ,
/
12 , 10% 5% 10% -5% 5% -5%
/
http:// www.cjsc.com.cn
d
c
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