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[2008-1-14]长江证券晨会

2008-1-14 /
(8621)63217917 yindt@cjsc.com.cn 2008-1-11 300 5,699.15 5,484.68 180 50 12,763.87 4,481.49 1,554.04 19,016.59 100 6,402.97 0.48 0.52 0.72 1.13 -0.14 0.41 0.14

? ------2007 12
l 12
2008
1
11
2 07
05 12
05
12 06
7.91 4.32 4.13 3.53 3.20
2007 3
12
08
-9.06 -4.08
-3.90 -3.29
3 26% 11%
13.9%
600488 600896 600015 600791
15.79 23.16 22.95 19.66
10.03 10.02 10.02 10.02
4
53.2% 97.9% 61.6% 20.1%
5
600195 000839 000525 600460
32.39 39.64 18.41 11.13
-5.98 -5.95 -5.93 -5.92
l
11
12
kk d
c
600405
15.56
-9.06
2007
12
M2
c
c
d
c c c c d
c
000799
*ST
31.95
38.06
d
d
d
c
-4.03
12 21% 2
06 12
23%
d
d
12 1144.16 25.7% 12
2007 12 2061.45 21.7% 226.87
23.4% 917.29
11
06 05 l12
d 1
d
d
d
d
c c
c c
c c c c
c c c
12 12 5,457. 5,361. 5 0.08 -0.04
M2
2006 M1 M1
M1 12
8.1220 6.7930 6.5445 6.0123 6.2550 5
7.9420
2
5.9945 5.9423 5.5450
5.179 4.822 3.652 3.648
5.5944 5.1271 3.7866 4.3202
3
26.17 15%
16.10%
2008 4482 13.8%
111.05 5,361. 55 112.84
0.09 -0.04
0.13
4 1.0000 0.1378 0.0932 14.9897 7.2590 10.7290 0.0667 1.0000 1.4780 0.6766 1.0000 0.0092 0.0062
CPI
6.3
00
0
080113 l 26,867.01 12,606.30 S&P500 NASDAQ DAX FTSE100 225 1,401.02 2,439.94 7,717.95 6,202.00 14,110.79 -1.34 -1.92 -1.36 -1.95 0.06 -0.33 -1.93
26867.01 1202
07
2
40
d
c
d
d
d
c
d
108.81 160.826 1.0000
2.37% 30%
d
97.800
1.0630
d
d d
d
d
c d
c
6.7530
38.94
16.07% 6.8% 2006 6.76 1.84%
d d 11 11 14.6% 15.36% 4.3% 12 10.49 12 1.03 0.44%
c c
c
27 3 AH H
08 AH
37.13 193.47 AH H
A
3%
8.04 1.17% A AH
H
A
08
1
4
4872
394
1
2
1
4
(Mortgage Bankers Association) 32.2%
3
2.2%
4
(Freddie Mac) (FRE) 2005 9
5
6
3.3%
7
8
1
d
d
d
d
d
d
(National Association of Realtors) 2.6% 19.2%
d
d 36
d
d
d d d d d
d
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d
c d d d d
c
c c c c c c c c c c
d
d d d d d d d d d d d 1
d
c c c
d c
c
3
4
5
2
200002 430015
130 8
5 (8621)63217917 FAX (8621)33130730
TEL E-mail ( ) E-mail
yangjf@cjsc.com.cn FAX (8621)51062920 guihm@cjsc.com.cn
TEL (8621)63516121
12 ,
/
12 , 10% 5% 10% -5% 5% -5%
/
http:// www.cjsc.com.cn
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[2008-1-14]长江证券晨会

发布机构:
报告类型:晨会报告 发布日期:2008/1/14
报告评级:
撰写作者:
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内容简介

2008-1-14 /
(8621)63217917 yindt@cjsc.com.cn 2008-1-11 300 5,699.15 5,484.68 180 50 12,763.87 4,481.49 1,554.04 19,016.59 100 6,402.97 0.48 0.52 0.72 1.13 -0.14 0.41 0.14

? ------2007 12
l 12
2008
1
11
2 07
05 12
05
12 06
7.91 4.32 4.13 3.53 3.20
2007 3
12
08
-9.06 -4.08
-3.90 -3.29
3 26% 11%
13.9%
600488 600896 600015 600791
15.79 23.16 22.95 19.66
10.03 10.02 10.02 10.02
4
53.2% 97.9% 61.6% 20.1%
5
600195 000839 000525 600460
32.39 39.64 18.41 11.13
-5.98 -5.95 -5.93 -5.92
l
11
12
kk d
c
600405
15.56
-9.06
2007
12
M2
c
c
d
c c c c d
c
000799
*ST
31.95
38.06
d
d
d
c
-4.03
12 21% 2
06 12
23%
d
d
12 1144.16 25.7% 12
2007 12 2061.45 21.7% 226.87
23.4% 917.29
11
06 05 l12
d 1
d
d
d
d
c c
c c
c c c c
c c c
12 12 5,457. 5,361. 5 0.08 -0.04
M2
2006 M1 M1
M1 12
8.1220 6.7930 6.5445 6.0123 6.2550 5
7.9420
2
5.9945 5.9423 5.5450
5.179 4.822 3.652 3.648
5.5944 5.1271 3.7866 4.3202
3
26.17 15%
16.10%
2008 4482 13.8%
111.05 5,361. 55 112.84
0.09 -0.04
0.13
4 1.0000 0.1378 0.0932 14.9897 7.2590 10.7290 0.0667 1.0000 1.4780 0.6766 1.0000 0.0092 0.0062
CPI
6.3
00
0
080113 l 26,867.01 12,606.30 S&P500 NASDAQ DAX FTSE100 225 1,401.02 2,439.94 7,717.95 6,202.00 14,110.79 -1.34 -1.92 -1.36 -1.95 0.06 -0.33 -1.93
26867.01 1202
07
2
40
d
c
d
d
d
c
d
108.81 160.826 1.0000
2.37% 30%
d
97.800
1.0630
d
d d
d
d
c d
c
6.7530
38.94
16.07% 6.8% 2006 6.76 1.84%
d d 11 11 14.6% 15.36% 4.3% 12 10.49 12 1.03 0.44%
c c
c
27 3 AH H
08 AH
37.13 193.47 AH H
A
3%
8.04 1.17% A AH
H
A
08
1
4
4872
394
1
2
1
4
(Mortgage Bankers Association) 32.2%
3
2.2%
4
(Freddie Mac) (FRE) 2005 9
5
6
3.3%
7
8
1
d
d
d
d
d
d
(National Association of Realtors) 2.6% 19.2%
d
d 36
d
d
d d d d d
d
c d
d
c d d d d
c
c c c c c c c c c c
d
d d d d d d d d d d d 1
d
c c c
d c
c
3
4
5
2
200002 430015
130 8
5 (8621)63217917 FAX (8621)33130730
TEL E-mail ( ) E-mail
yangjf@cjsc.com.cn FAX (8621)51062920 guihm@cjsc.com.cn
TEL (8621)63516121
12 ,
/
12 , 10% 5% 10% -5% 5% -5%
/
http:// www.cjsc.com.cn
d
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d c d c c d c d d c
l l
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