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[2008-1-7]海通证券--2008保险行业报告:利润增速或大幅下降,估值仍偏高

3000
2000
1000
0 2007012220070326 2007052820070723 2007091720071119
2008
2007
2008 2008
2008
2007.8.
2007.8 8 2007.9
P/B P/E
40
60.3
AIA 2007E 021-23219389 Email panhw@htsec.com 601628 601318 601601 1.18 2.15 0.92
EPS 2008E 1.43 2.82 0.91 2009E 1.63 3.02 1.15 2007E 7.87 18.08 9.65
EVPS 2008E 10.07 22.24 14.20 2009E 12.48 27.42 16.45 -
c
d
d
d
d
d
d r q
d
2007.10
P/EV,
d
üü 2008 1 7
d
d d
d d
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1
........................................................................................................................................... 4 1. 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2. 2.1 2.2 3. -2008 3.1 2008 3.2 3.3 4. 5. 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 40 ...................................................... 4 ................................................. 4 .......................................................... 5 ................................................. 6 .................................................................... 6 .......................................................... 9 ..................................................................... 9 ........................................................... 10 .............................................................................. 13 ........................................................... 13 .............................................................................. 14 ...................................................................................... 18 .............................................................................................................. 20 .................................................................................................................. 21 ........................................................................................... 21 ............................................................................................... 23 ........................................................................................... 24 ................................................................................ 25
......................................................................................................................................... 28 6. 6.1 6.2 6.3 ................................................................................................................................ 28 601628.SH 601318.SH 601601.SH ............................................................................................ 28 ............................................................................................ 28 ............................................................................................ 30
e
2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
2001-2006 2000-2006 2001-2006 2001-2006 2006-2007 2007 300
.......................................................................4 ..........................................................................4 .......................................................................4 .......................................................4 ......................................................................................5 ................................................................................................5 (%)...........................................................................6
2003-2007 1994-2007 2001-2006 2006 2003-2008 2003-2008 2000-2007 2003-2010
......................................................................6 (%).................................................7 ....................................................................................7 ..........................................................7 .........................................................8 % .....................................................8
............................................................................9 ................................................................................9 .............................................................................10
(%)...............................................................10 (%)...............................................................10 (%)...............................................................11
1H07 5 2004-2007 2004-1H2007 1H2006-1H2007 2003-2007 2007 61 37 2006 5 3 5 7
(%) ............................................11 % ..................................................11
(%)...................................................12 (%)......................................................................12 % .................................13
% .................................................................13 (%)..............................................................14 (%)..............................................................14 ............................................................................26
e c c c c
3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
2007
6
% ..................................................................5 ..................................................8 ( ( ) .............................................................15 ) .............................................................16 ............................................17 300 300 1H2007 ............................................18 ............................................18
.............................................................................19 ............................................................20
..........................................................................................................21 ..........................................................22 ..........................................................................................23 Gordon Gordon Gordon 12% 18% ................25 .........26 .........26
..................................................................27 ......................................................27 2009 2009 6 6 / / ...................................30 ...................................31
..............................................................................................31
e
4
1. 1.1 2001-2006
-
193
2003-2005 2002 682% 2004 2.8% 2005 2004 30.3% 2005 -16.5% 2 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 -20 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 40 60
193
1 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
2001-2006
2000-2006
80
20
2005
2006 0
2005 2002-2007
193
2005 2002-2007
193
2006 2007 3 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2006
11
31 4 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
17.9% 2001-2006
21.2%
2001-2006
2002-2007
2002-2007
d
d
12.8% 2005
d


d
60% 7.2% 8.6%
2003 2005
2001-2002 2004
e   
d
d c
2005
2002
35.2%






1250
1000
750
500
250
5
1.2 2007
5338.
161.5%
1
2007
6 3 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.72 1.80 1.98 2.07 2.34 2.61 2.88 3.33 2.25 2.43 2.61 2.88 3.15 3.42 3.78
2006-8-19 2007-3-18 2007-5-19 2007-7-21 2007-8-22 2007-9-15 2007-12-21
, 5 6 5 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000
2007
2006-2007
300
6 50 40 30 20 10 0
2007
1000 -10 0 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
-20
2007
11
5%
d
d

d
d
d
d
2007 162
2.52% 300 2007
% 1 2.52 2.79 3.06 3.33 3.60 3.87 4.14 2 3.06 3.33 3.69 3.96 4.23 4.50 4.68 3 3.69 3.96 4.41 4.68 4.95 5.22 5.40 5 4.14 4.41 4.95 5.22 5.49 5.76 5.85
d
e c d d d
4.14% 2.5% 2041
2007
6
1.3 2007 150% 12 4 100% 150% 2003 100%
100%
2004 8% 350%
2004 2006 217% A 7 350 300 250 200 150 34000 100 50 0 2004 2005 2006 1H2007 32000 30000
2006
2007 138%
6
31 150%
(%)
8 42000 40000 38000 36000
2003-2007
2003
2004
2005
2006
Oct-07
CIRC
2007
10
1.4
2007
8
15 4.14%
20%
5% 6 1.433%
3.933%
x
d
d
d
d d d x d d w d d d w
e
7
9
1994-2007
(%) 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
Dec-31-1994
Dec-31-1996
Dec-31-1998
Dec-31-2000
Dec-31-2002
Dec-31-2004
10 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
2001-2006
11
2006
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008 2006 2005 25.1% 31.5% 74.89 25.7% 104.81
40%
/ 2005
d
d
d
e Dec-31-2006
d
d d
d
d c
d c
8
298.86 2007
332.80 2008
11.4%
27.5
20.5
34%
2006
3% 2008
2006 75% 2006 2007
49.8% 2008
2 2006 4.10% 4.35% 4.20% 2007 4.25% 4.50% 4.30% 4.80% 2008 4.50% 4.65% 4.40% 4.90% 2009 4.65% 4.80% 4.50% 5.00% 2010 4.75% 4.95% 4.60% 5.10% 2011 4.85% 5.10% 4.70% 5.20% 2012 4.97% 5.25% 4.70% 5.20% 2013 5.10% 5.40% 4.70% 5.20% 2014+ 5.20% 5.40% 4.70% 5.20%
4.70%
12 16000
2003-2008
13 50 40 30
2003-2008
12000
8000 20
4000
10 0
0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E -10
2003
2004
2005
2006
d
d
2007 2007 18.8%
2007E
d
d
2006 30.3% 2007
13.1%
e d d d d d d d
2007
2008
%
2008E
9
2. 2.1
-
60%-70%
3
2006
6
2006
6
47.8%
727.97 6834.70
721.60
27.32% 19%
24.5%
31.7%
60%
50%
14 2400
2000-2007 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E
15
2003-2010
1600 1200 800 400 0


2000
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E




16 14
d
d
2006 35.5%
2007
d
d
2006 25.13% 2006
30 25 20 15 10 5 0
c d
x
d
d d
d
d
c
w
5 2006 7 1
2006
d
d
e c d d d d d
2003
10
16 250 55 45 35 150 25 15 100 5 50 Jun-05 Jun-06 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Jun-07 Aug-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Oct-07 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 -5
200
2.2
2007
2006 6 2006 3
6 7
17 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2005
(%)
18 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
(%)
2006
1H2007
2004
2005
2006
2007
d
e d d d d c
d

x
d d
x

w
d w c
2006 2006
11
19 120 100
(%) 120 100
20
1H07
80 60 40 20 0 2006 1H2007
80 60 40 20 0
15.4%
21
5
2004-2007
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2004 2005 2006 2007
2007
2007
11
( )
c
c
d
d
2004 2007 11 3.4% 42.7%
9.1%
5.8% 1.4% 4.8% 2004 58.1%
%
e c 2007 11
d
d
d
c
(%)
3.3%
12
22 12 10
2004-1H2007
(%)
23 18 16 14
1H2006-1H2007
8 6
12 10 8
4 2
6 4 2
0 2004 2005 2006 1H2007
0 1H2006 1H2007
e (%)
13
3. 3.1 2008
-2008
2007 157 147 55
24
2003-2007
5
7  
% 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0
Mar-312003
Sep-302003
Mar-312004
Sep-302004
Mar-312005
Sep-302005
Mar-312006
Sep-302006
Mar-312007
Bloomberg
25
2007  
% 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0
Jan-31-07
Mar-31-07
May-31-07
Jul-31-07
Sep-30-07
Bloomberg
3.36
2007
6
29
d
d
d
e 
d
d

d
d
Sep-302007
Nov-30-07
2.9
14
2007
9
29
5.28%
6% 1%
26
61
5
(%) 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5
27
37
3
1Q2004 3Q2004 1Q2005 3Q2005 1Q2006 3Q2006 1Q2007 3Q2007
1Q2004 3Q2004 1Q2005 3Q2005 1Q2006 3Q2006 1Q2007 3Q2007
3.2
2007 522.24 13.13
246.24
2007
6.88
28% 30% 1.33 2.35
d
d
d
5.9%-7.5% 37 61 40% 2%

d
2007 143 127
37
61 5.15%
2006
0.5%-1% 60% 90%
(%) 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5
d 
e d d d d d  
15
3
( 2Q2007
) 2Q2007 3Q2007 3Q2007 ( 4Q2007 4Q2007
) 3451 2979 6430 5448 4529 1063 5071 2432 2030 380 1180 1160 833 169 1002 793 785 32303 18751 2979 21730 8161 4529 2195 5071 3903 2825 613 1529 2217 1477 169 1646 929 979 56327 15300 0 15300 2713 0 1132 0 1471 795 233 349 1057 644 0 644 136 194 24024 34235 3772 38007 11288 6564 2893 5071 5149 3548 729 1639 4183 1537 158 1694 1454 1619 83839 15484 793 16277 3127 2035 698 0 1246 723 117 110 1967 60 -11 49 525 640 27513 31,602 3,482 35,083 10,581 6,915 2,697 8,989 6,333 3,646 813 1,489 3,289 1,463 150 1,634 1,506 1,552 84,527 -2,634 -290 -2,924 -707 351 -196 3,918 1,184 98 84 -150 -894 -73 -8 -60 52 -67 688
600030
354 39 393 714 702
600016 601939 0939 601088 601398 1398 601988 3988 601318 600009
408 137 779 651 123 394 31 39 4 43 38 89
600036 600019
e 4 4 4 4
16
4
( 2Q2007
) 2Q2007 3Q2007 3Q2007 ( 4Q2007 4Q2007
) 5501 2210 149 2228 1357 218 1100 273 280 750 444 526 692 615 268 16611 8241 2210 164 7208 1357 430 1769 269 453 1009 987 478 2120 1644 276 28614 2740 0 15 4980 0 212 669 -4 173 259 543 -48 1428 1029 8 12003 11399 2210 280 10343 1964 567 2333 338 540 1082 1498 759 3566 2597 447 39922 3158 0 116 3134 607 137 565 69 86 73 511 281 1446 953 172 11308 10,685 3,937 280 10,402 2,069 529 2,870 347 602 983 1,391 687 3,587 2,480 389 41,235 -714 1,727 -1 59 105 -38 537 9 62 -99 -107 -72 21 -117 -59 1,313
600016 601088 1088 600000 601939 0939 601398 1398 601988 3988 601628 2628 601006 000002 600048
721 60 6 197 210 80 353 62 91 260 24 17 140 86 6
VS
300 ( ) 48.8%
0.8%
39.5%
2008
2007
6
30 17.8%
d
42.2% 8.4%
d
d d
3.3% -4.3% 300
300
48.3% 300
300
c
c
e c
17
5
78455 29533 40980 392 7550
100.0% 37.6% 52.2% 0.5% 9.6%
91450 36879 46744 101 7726
100.0% 40.3% 51.1% 0.1% 8.4%
99694 43490 45895 84 10225
7795 4477 3318
100.0% 57.4% 42.6%
26328 4656 21672
100.0% 17.7% 82.3%
33346 2803 30543
210779 129250 63768 17761
100.0% 61.3% 30.3% 8.4%
252838 130193 84307 38338
57674 31432 26242
100.0% 54.5% 45.5%
83234 48136 35098
357359 176559 176409 4391
100.0% 49.4% 49.4% 1.2%
396439 186486 196034 13919
95267 62369 32898
100.0% 65.5% 34.5%
127802 104996 22806
2007 35.7% 161.5% 2006 1-9
300
300 19.9% 2008 161.5%
4.6% 7000
31%
2007
d
52.0% 25.4%
d
84.4% 7.6% 2007 12.9%
300
+ 100.0% 43.6% 46.0% 0.1% 10.3% 100.0% 8.4% 91.6%
+
+
e   
d
d
d
  
100.0% 51.5% 33.3% 15.2%
100.0% 57.8% 42.2%
100.0% 47.0% 49.4% 3.5%
100.0% 82.2% 17.8%
5338 2008
18
6 2007
300
2006
2005
1212 1894 10649 4046 6603 61 9 12 13837
8.8 13.7 76.9 29.2 47.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 100 7.6
2.2% 2.0% 35.7% 32.6% 37.9% 196.8% 0.7% 5.4%
2233 3412 3856 795 3061 1 32 -18 9516
23.5 35.9 40.5 8.4 32.1 0 0.3 -0.2 100 6.1 121.0%
4.3 4 22.6 14.5 26.4 200 2 -12.2
1919 3264 1100 6 1094 0 34 -52 6265
300
84.4%
7 2006
300
2005
2295 4946 104
19.8 42.6 0.9
3.4 3.0 3.5
3452 5745 56
37.4 62.2 0.6
4.6 4.2 5.1
3592 3097 70
1827 2426 11598
15.8 20.9 100 4.6
19.9 25.4
41 -62 9232
0.5 -0.7 100 4.2 N/A
1.4 -0.8
-28 -375 6356
300
52.0%
3.3 2008 2008 2008 7000
d
e   30.6 52.1 17.6 0.1 17.5 0 0.5 -0.8 100 5.3 N/A 4 5.2
16.2 11.5 16.3 0 1.6 -35
d
 
2004
56.5 48.7 1.1
4.5 3.4 3.5
-0.4 -5.9 100 3.6 N/A
-4.9 -7.2
  
  
  
   1H2007
c c
e
8
1 2
19
20
4. 1 2008
2
3 2008 2007
2008
9
2006
2007E
-10.9%
129.2% 104.4% 279.3%
c
d
d
e d d d
21
5. 5.1 P/B P/E P/EV, 5.4 60.3
10 P/E 2007E 56.67 104.22 48.99 601628.CH 601318.CH 601601.CH 48.0 48.5 53.3 2008E 39.6 37.0 53.8 2007E 8.79 7.1 6.0 P/B 2008E 7.40 5.9 4.1 2007E 7.2 5.8 5.1 P/EV 2008 2008E 5.6 4.7 3.5 2008E 60.30 36.51 40.62
2007-1-4
2008 2008 1 3
e d c c c
d
$ $
c
d
40
22
11 P/E 2007E AIG Allianz AXA ING 9.79 7.35 10.56 76.93 P/E 2006 12.19 9.07 11.75 9.41 P/E 2005 18.1 11.38 12.12 9.33 P/B 2007E 15 1.32 1.72 P/B 2006 1.83 1.33 1.34 1.94 P/B 2005 2.05 1.32 1.37 1.73
MetLife Prudential Financial Inc. AFLAC Inc. Lincoln National Corp
10.84 13.19 19.83 11.44
11.33 14.12 16.04 12.92
11.32 13.09 18.28 11.21
1.50 1.78 3.16 1.36
1.48 1.92 2.72 1.50
Manulife Financial Corp. Sun Life Financial Inc.
14.99 14.19
15.68 13.78
17.51 14.41
2.7 2.04
2.45 1.78
Prudential PLC Standard Life PLC
19.4 16.57
19.32 21. 91
17.46 -
2.99 1.94
3.12 2.20
CNP Assurances
8.88
10.99
9.51
1.13
1.13
ALLIANZ LEBENSUERSICHERUNGS
23.87
17.94
15.46
3.35
2.52
Assicurazioni Generali
15.35
17.53
19.51
2.97
2.77
T&D holding Inc.
37.02
51.64
62.93
1.50
1.84
Great Eastern holdings Ltd.
13.69
16.83
18.61
2.51
2.74
Shin Kong Financial holding Cathay Financial holding Taiwan Life Insurance Co Ltd.
31.34 90.36 19.04
14.68 87.47 15.14
13.57 23.15 10.92
1.76 3.17 2.13
1.81 3.07 1.65
33.39 42.26
33.52 34.01
20.37 21.89
6.93 6.46
5.39 5.77
Panin Life TBK PT 2007 12 13 Bloomberg
10.14
8.28
8.22
1.16
1.07
e 1.37 1.61 2.92 1.44 2.32 1.84 1.05 1.81 2.69 2.1 2.65 1.50 2.59 1.91 2.37 2.79 0.92
23
12 P/E 2007E Travelers Cos Inc Allstate Chubb Corporation Progressive Corporation 7.94 7.35 8.82 10.22 P/E 2006 9.10 8.49 9.45 11.48 P/E 2005 15.4 22.81 12.63 16.45 P/B 2007E 1.33 1.37 1.49 2.34 P/B 2006 1.46 1.85 1.57 2.65 P/B 2005 1.4 1.73 1.65 3.77
IAG QBE Insurance Group
13.21 14.49
17.38 15.48
11.18 13.58
1.68 -
2.18 3.73
Taiwan Fire & Marine Union Insurance First Insurance
-
9.22 7.14 11.30
9.16 20.5 56.19 8.96
1.47 1.20 1.08
1.14 6.53 1.24 1.07
Samsung Fire & Marine Dongbu Insurance Hyundai Fire & Marine Meritz Fire & Marine
21.03 13.8 24.62 14.55
22.39 9.63 21.89 11.63
12.58 4.54 5.55 6.29
2.40 2.5 2.19 2.00
1.94 1.95 2.07 1.34
Millea Holding Inc Mitsui Sumitomo Sompo Japan Nipponkoa Fuji Fire & Marine
38.89 34.54 23.34 50.98 25.39
43.98 31.85 24.93 82.11 28.38
40.4 21.60 21.28 44.95 23.21
1.06 0.96 0.99 1.05 1.15
1.22 1.12 1.23 1.09 1.20
29.46 11.34 2007 12 13 Bloomberg
21.41 18.19
27.57 -
4.97 2.16
2.15 2.25
5.2
Multiplier
NBM 10 15-25
60
e 2.43 3.02 0.97 0.58 1.02 1.01
d
d
d
d
d
HFQDUXVQ, JQRNQLK6
1.20 0.95 0.83 0.59
1.16 0.96 1.22 1.03 1.14
1.45 -
New Business
24
5.3 AV Appraisal Value Method Adjusted Net Asset Value
Economic Value Added
EVA
1 2 3
NAV Value of the In Force Portfolio VIF
Value of Ongoing Business, VOB
NAV
Surplus
VIF :
VOB
1 2 3 4
c
d
d
d
c
c
e k c d c d d c d d d c d d c d d d NAV
25
5.4
40 = / Annual Premium Equivalent APE
Gordon 6-15 10%
1-5 3%
13
Gordon
5% 8% 10% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 20% 22% 19.7 21.1 21.8 23.3 24.8 26.5 28.2 29.1 31.0
7.0% 22.2 23.8 24.6 26.3 28.1 30.0 32.0 33.0 35.1
8.0% 23.6 25.3 26.2 28.0 29.9 31.9 34.1 35.2 37.4
9.0% 25.1 26.9 27.9 29.8 31.9 34.0 36.3 37.5 39.9
10.0% 26.8 28.7 29.7 31.8 34.0 36.3 38.7 40.0 42.6
11.0% 28.6 30.6 31.7 33.9 36.3 38.8 41.4 42.7 45.5
12.0% 30.5 32.7 33.8 36.2 38.7 41.4 44.2 45.6 48.6
13.0% 32.5 34.9 36.1 38.7 41.4 44.2 47.2 48.7 52.0
15.0% 37.1 39.8 41.2 44.2 47.3 50.5 54.0 55.7 59.4
2007 2008 10%-20% 6-15 8%-12%
25%
25.3-45.6
2008-2012 GDP 20% 2013-2022 12% 2023 5.3%
d
7.5% 2023 5%
9% GDP 3% 4.5%
?
d c
d
e d c d c d d d c d
26
14
Gordon 2006 2007 233070 11.3 5041 22.0 2.2 2008-2012 358607 9.0 12544 20.0 3.5
12% 2013-2022 739100 7.5 38959 12.0 5.3 2023 761274 3.0 40128 3.0 5.3
GDP
209407
10.7 4132 11.7 2.0
28 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
2006
Sigma
18% 8.9% 18% 15 Gordon 2006 GDP 209407
5%
18% 2007 233070 11.3 5041 22.0 2.2 2008-2012 358607 9.0 12544 20.0 3.5 2013-2022 739100 7.5 65652 18.0 8.9 2023 761274 3.0 67621 3.0 8.9
%
10.7 4132 11.7%
%
%
2.0
c c
e d d d 15
27
0.6 31.0
60%
16
1 2 5 6 10 11 15 16+
1 1.20 2.07 2.32 3.65 4.09 6.44 6.63
17
40% 24.4
40
d
10% 70%
20%
12% 34.3
d
d c
d c
20% 45.6
12%
3%
1 0.95 0.95 0.85 0.85 0.60 0.60 0.60
1 0.91 0.68 0.62 0.42 0.39 0.26 0.24
1 1.04 1.35 1.23 1.32 0.95 1.02 14.97
50% 27.7
60% 31.0
70% 34.3
d 3%
e 10%
c
d
c
31.0 28.90 19.50 20.41 15.09 20.00 14.71 1.00
80% 37.6
28
6. 6.1 1 14639 42.9
601628.SH
2
,
3 2006 3
, 64.8
4 2006 5 60bp 44
2004
1.89% 1.89%
3.03% 10%
/
35
2009
6
56.67
6.2 1
601318.SH 2007
2007
2 10 4.18%
2007
15%
d
d
5% 9% 18.1
d
c
d
d
d d
13% 8.1%
11 2007
7 11 27 199 2007 12
c
d
d c
d
d
d
e c r d d d r q d c c c d c q d d d c c d d
,
2005
4
29
15% 6% 3 2005 6.2%
2004 2006 3
2003 2004-2005 2007
4 46%
46%
5
20.5 36.1%
24.4
19% 68.4
6 6
/ 104.22 16.5%
10.5%
20bp
r q
150bp 38 121.43
2009
c
d
2007 3% 93.09
c
d
d
d
c
d
e d d d d d d c d d c c d d d d c d d d
30
18
2009
6
/ 1H2009 136041 24.75 9533 1.30 38 49.32 74.07
93835
229876 31.30 12336 1.68 38 63.82 95.12 6.97 10.37 5.20 3.78 121.43
6.3 1 “ 5
601601.SH
2
3
75.6%
q
d
d
e d d SE
d
 
r c
d d c
d
r



d c


 (3   (3   %3  (3 


kk
kk
q


d d d
c
r
   
31
4 80bp 34.2 2009 6
/ 50.87
10.5% 80% 31.43
19
2009
6
/ 1H2009E
107804 15.36 4871 0.57 34.20 19.37 34.73
41775 149578 17.39
6687 0.78 34.20 26.59 43.99
6.89 50.87
20 1 601628 601318 4 2007E 56.67 104.22 48.99 2008 1 4
P/E 2008E 39.6 37.0 53.8 2009E 34.8 34.5 42.6 2007E 7.2 5.8 5.1 44 121.43 50.87 48.0 48.5 53.3
P/EV 2008E 5.6 4.7 3.5 2009E 4.5 3.8 3.0

601601
d
48.99 34.2
c
e d 
c SE
d

 


c

(3 

d 
32
c d
c
d
c
d
6 6 6
d
6 6 6 6 6
15% 5% 15% -5% 5% -5% -15% -15% 5% 5% 5% 5%
e d c d d c d d
33
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[2008-1-7]海通证券--2008保险行业报告:利润增速或大幅下降,估值仍偏高

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报告类型:行业研究 发布日期:2008/1/7
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内容简介

3000
2000
1000
0 2007012220070326 2007052820070723 2007091720071119
2008
2007
2008 2008
2008
2007.8.
2007.8 8 2007.9
P/B P/E
40
60.3
AIA 2007E 021-23219389 Email panhw@htsec.com 601628 601318 601601 1.18 2.15 0.92
EPS 2008E 1.43 2.82 0.91 2009E 1.63 3.02 1.15 2007E 7.87 18.08 9.65
EVPS 2008E 10.07 22.24 14.20 2009E 12.48 27.42 16.45 -
c
d
d
d
d
d
d r q
d
2007.10
P/EV,
d
üü 2008 1 7
d
d d
d d
d
c
d d d d d
d
d
d
d
d
d

c
1
........................................................................................................................................... 4 1. 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2. 2.1 2.2 3. -2008 3.1 2008 3.2 3.3 4. 5. 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 40 ...................................................... 4 ................................................. 4 .......................................................... 5 ................................................. 6 .................................................................... 6 .......................................................... 9 ..................................................................... 9 ........................................................... 10 .............................................................................. 13 ........................................................... 13 .............................................................................. 14 ...................................................................................... 18 .............................................................................................................. 20 .................................................................................................................. 21 ........................................................................................... 21 ............................................................................................... 23 ........................................................................................... 24 ................................................................................ 25
......................................................................................................................................... 28 6. 6.1 6.2 6.3 ................................................................................................................................ 28 601628.SH 601318.SH 601601.SH ............................................................................................ 28 ............................................................................................ 28 ............................................................................................ 30
e
2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
2001-2006 2000-2006 2001-2006 2001-2006 2006-2007 2007 300
.......................................................................4 ..........................................................................4 .......................................................................4 .......................................................4 ......................................................................................5 ................................................................................................5 (%)...........................................................................6
2003-2007 1994-2007 2001-2006 2006 2003-2008 2003-2008 2000-2007 2003-2010
......................................................................6 (%).................................................7 ....................................................................................7 ..........................................................7 .........................................................8 % .....................................................8
............................................................................9 ................................................................................9 .............................................................................10
(%)...............................................................10 (%)...............................................................10 (%)...............................................................11
1H07 5 2004-2007 2004-1H2007 1H2006-1H2007 2003-2007 2007 61 37 2006 5 3 5 7
(%) ............................................11 % ..................................................11
(%)...................................................12 (%)......................................................................12 % .................................13
% .................................................................13 (%)..............................................................14 (%)..............................................................14 ............................................................................26
e c c c c
3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
2007
6
% ..................................................................5 ..................................................8 ( ( ) .............................................................15 ) .............................................................16 ............................................17 300 300 1H2007 ............................................18 ............................................18
.............................................................................19 ............................................................20
..........................................................................................................21 ..........................................................22 ..........................................................................................23 Gordon Gordon Gordon 12% 18% ................25 .........26 .........26
..................................................................27 ......................................................27 2009 2009 6 6 / / ...................................30 ...................................31
..............................................................................................31
e
4
1. 1.1 2001-2006
-
193
2003-2005 2002 682% 2004 2.8% 2005 2004 30.3% 2005 -16.5% 2 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 -20 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 40 60
193
1 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
2001-2006
2000-2006
80
20
2005
2006 0
2005 2002-2007
193
2005 2002-2007
193
2006 2007 3 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2006
11
31 4 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
17.9% 2001-2006
21.2%
2001-2006
2002-2007
2002-2007
d
d
12.8% 2005
d


d
60% 7.2% 8.6%
2003 2005
2001-2002 2004
e   
d
d c
2005
2002
35.2%






1250
1000
750
500
250
5
1.2 2007
5338.
161.5%
1
2007
6 3 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.72 1.80 1.98 2.07 2.34 2.61 2.88 3.33 2.25 2.43 2.61 2.88 3.15 3.42 3.78
2006-8-19 2007-3-18 2007-5-19 2007-7-21 2007-8-22 2007-9-15 2007-12-21
, 5 6 5 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000
2007
2006-2007
300
6 50 40 30 20 10 0
2007
1000 -10 0 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
-20
2007
11
5%
d
d

d
d
d
d
2007 162
2.52% 300 2007
% 1 2.52 2.79 3.06 3.33 3.60 3.87 4.14 2 3.06 3.33 3.69 3.96 4.23 4.50 4.68 3 3.69 3.96 4.41 4.68 4.95 5.22 5.40 5 4.14 4.41 4.95 5.22 5.49 5.76 5.85
d
e c d d d
4.14% 2.5% 2041
2007
6
1.3 2007 150% 12 4 100% 150% 2003 100%
100%
2004 8% 350%
2004 2006 217% A 7 350 300 250 200 150 34000 100 50 0 2004 2005 2006 1H2007 32000 30000
2006
2007 138%
6
31 150%
(%)
8 42000 40000 38000 36000
2003-2007
2003
2004
2005
2006
Oct-07
CIRC
2007
10
1.4
2007
8
15 4.14%
20%
5% 6 1.433%
3.933%
x
d
d
d
d d d x d d w d d d w
e
7
9
1994-2007
(%) 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
Dec-31-1994
Dec-31-1996
Dec-31-1998
Dec-31-2000
Dec-31-2002
Dec-31-2004
10 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
2001-2006
11
2006
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008 2006 2005 25.1% 31.5% 74.89 25.7% 104.81
40%
/ 2005
d
d
d
e Dec-31-2006
d
d d
d
d c
d c
8
298.86 2007
332.80 2008
11.4%
27.5
20.5
34%
2006
3% 2008
2006 75% 2006 2007
49.8% 2008
2 2006 4.10% 4.35% 4.20% 2007 4.25% 4.50% 4.30% 4.80% 2008 4.50% 4.65% 4.40% 4.90% 2009 4.65% 4.80% 4.50% 5.00% 2010 4.75% 4.95% 4.60% 5.10% 2011 4.85% 5.10% 4.70% 5.20% 2012 4.97% 5.25% 4.70% 5.20% 2013 5.10% 5.40% 4.70% 5.20% 2014+ 5.20% 5.40% 4.70% 5.20%
4.70%
12 16000
2003-2008
13 50 40 30
2003-2008
12000
8000 20
4000
10 0
0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E -10
2003
2004
2005
2006
d
d
2007 2007 18.8%
2007E
d
d
2006 30.3% 2007
13.1%
e d d d d d d d
2007
2008
%
2008E
9
2. 2.1
-
60%-70%
3
2006
6
2006
6
47.8%
727.97 6834.70
721.60
27.32% 19%
24.5%
31.7%
60%
50%
14 2400
2000-2007 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E
15
2003-2010
1600 1200 800 400 0


2000
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E




16 14
d
d
2006 35.5%
2007
d
d
2006 25.13% 2006
30 25 20 15 10 5 0
c d
x
d
d d
d
d
c
w
5 2006 7 1
2006
d
d
e c d d d d d
2003
10
16 250 55 45 35 150 25 15 100 5 50 Jun-05 Jun-06 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Jun-07 Aug-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Oct-07 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 -5
200
2.2
2007
2006 6 2006 3
6 7
17 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2005
(%)
18 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
(%)
2006
1H2007
2004
2005
2006
2007
d
e d d d d c
d

x
d d
x

w
d w c
2006 2006
11
19 120 100
(%) 120 100
20
1H07
80 60 40 20 0 2006 1H2007
80 60 40 20 0
15.4%
21
5
2004-2007
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2004 2005 2006 2007
2007
2007
11
( )
c
c
d
d
2004 2007 11 3.4% 42.7%
9.1%
5.8% 1.4% 4.8% 2004 58.1%
%
e c 2007 11
d
d
d
c
(%)
3.3%
12
22 12 10
2004-1H2007
(%)
23 18 16 14
1H2006-1H2007
8 6
12 10 8
4 2
6 4 2
0 2004 2005 2006 1H2007
0 1H2006 1H2007
e (%)
13
3. 3.1 2008
-2008
2007 157 147 55
24
2003-2007
5
7  
% 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0
Mar-312003
Sep-302003
Mar-312004
Sep-302004
Mar-312005
Sep-302005
Mar-312006
Sep-302006
Mar-312007
Bloomberg
25
2007  
% 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0
Jan-31-07
Mar-31-07
May-31-07
Jul-31-07
Sep-30-07
Bloomberg
3.36
2007
6
29
d
d
d
e 
d
d

d
d
Sep-302007
Nov-30-07
2.9
14
2007
9
29
5.28%
6% 1%
26
61
5
(%) 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5
27
37
3
1Q2004 3Q2004 1Q2005 3Q2005 1Q2006 3Q2006 1Q2007 3Q2007
1Q2004 3Q2004 1Q2005 3Q2005 1Q2006 3Q2006 1Q2007 3Q2007
3.2
2007 522.24 13.13
246.24
2007
6.88
28% 30% 1.33 2.35
d
d
d
5.9%-7.5% 37 61 40% 2%

d
2007 143 127
37
61 5.15%
2006
0.5%-1% 60% 90%
(%) 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5
d 
e d d d d d  
15
3
( 2Q2007
) 2Q2007 3Q2007 3Q2007 ( 4Q2007 4Q2007
) 3451 2979 6430 5448 4529 1063 5071 2432 2030 380 1180 1160 833 169 1002 793 785 32303 18751 2979 21730 8161 4529 2195 5071 3903 2825 613 1529 2217 1477 169 1646 929 979 56327 15300 0 15300 2713 0 1132 0 1471 795 233 349 1057 644 0 644 136 194 24024 34235 3772 38007 11288 6564 2893 5071 5149 3548 729 1639 4183 1537 158 1694 1454 1619 83839 15484 793 16277 3127 2035 698 0 1246 723 117 110 1967 60 -11 49 525 640 27513 31,602 3,482 35,083 10,581 6,915 2,697 8,989 6,333 3,646 813 1,489 3,289 1,463 150 1,634 1,506 1,552 84,527 -2,634 -290 -2,924 -707 351 -196 3,918 1,184 98 84 -150 -894 -73 -8 -60 52 -67 688
600030
354 39 393 714 702
600016 601939 0939 601088 601398 1398 601988 3988 601318 600009
408 137 779 651 123 394 31 39 4 43 38 89
600036 600019
e 4 4 4 4
16
4
( 2Q2007
) 2Q2007 3Q2007 3Q2007 ( 4Q2007 4Q2007
) 5501 2210 149 2228 1357 218 1100 273 280 750 444 526 692 615 268 16611 8241 2210 164 7208 1357 430 1769 269 453 1009 987 478 2120 1644 276 28614 2740 0 15 4980 0 212 669 -4 173 259 543 -48 1428 1029 8 12003 11399 2210 280 10343 1964 567 2333 338 540 1082 1498 759 3566 2597 447 39922 3158 0 116 3134 607 137 565 69 86 73 511 281 1446 953 172 11308 10,685 3,937 280 10,402 2,069 529 2,870 347 602 983 1,391 687 3,587 2,480 389 41,235 -714 1,727 -1 59 105 -38 537 9 62 -99 -107 -72 21 -117 -59 1,313
600016 601088 1088 600000 601939 0939 601398 1398 601988 3988 601628 2628 601006 000002 600048
721 60 6 197 210 80 353 62 91 260 24 17 140 86 6
VS
300 ( ) 48.8%
0.8%
39.5%
2008
2007
6
30 17.8%
d
42.2% 8.4%
d
d d
3.3% -4.3% 300
300
48.3% 300
300
c
c
e c
17
5
78455 29533 40980 392 7550
100.0% 37.6% 52.2% 0.5% 9.6%
91450 36879 46744 101 7726
100.0% 40.3% 51.1% 0.1% 8.4%
99694 43490 45895 84 10225
7795 4477 3318
100.0% 57.4% 42.6%
26328 4656 21672
100.0% 17.7% 82.3%
33346 2803 30543
210779 129250 63768 17761
100.0% 61.3% 30.3% 8.4%
252838 130193 84307 38338
57674 31432 26242
100.0% 54.5% 45.5%
83234 48136 35098
357359 176559 176409 4391
100.0% 49.4% 49.4% 1.2%
396439 186486 196034 13919
95267 62369 32898
100.0% 65.5% 34.5%
127802 104996 22806
2007 35.7% 161.5% 2006 1-9
300
300 19.9% 2008 161.5%
4.6% 7000
31%
2007
d
52.0% 25.4%
d
84.4% 7.6% 2007 12.9%
300
+ 100.0% 43.6% 46.0% 0.1% 10.3% 100.0% 8.4% 91.6%
+
+
e   
d
d
d
  
100.0% 51.5% 33.3% 15.2%
100.0% 57.8% 42.2%
100.0% 47.0% 49.4% 3.5%
100.0% 82.2% 17.8%
5338 2008
18
6 2007
300
2006
2005
1212 1894 10649 4046 6603 61 9 12 13837
8.8 13.7 76.9 29.2 47.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 100 7.6
2.2% 2.0% 35.7% 32.6% 37.9% 196.8% 0.7% 5.4%
2233 3412 3856 795 3061 1 32 -18 9516
23.5 35.9 40.5 8.4 32.1 0 0.3 -0.2 100 6.1 121.0%
4.3 4 22.6 14.5 26.4 200 2 -12.2
1919 3264 1100 6 1094 0 34 -52 6265
300
84.4%
7 2006
300
2005
2295 4946 104
19.8 42.6 0.9
3.4 3.0 3.5
3452 5745 56
37.4 62.2 0.6
4.6 4.2 5.1
3592 3097 70
1827 2426 11598
15.8 20.9 100 4.6
19.9 25.4
41 -62 9232
0.5 -0.7 100 4.2 N/A
1.4 -0.8
-28 -375 6356
300
52.0%
3.3 2008 2008 2008 7000
d
e   30.6 52.1 17.6 0.1 17.5 0 0.5 -0.8 100 5.3 N/A 4 5.2
16.2 11.5 16.3 0 1.6 -35
d
 
2004
56.5 48.7 1.1
4.5 3.4 3.5
-0.4 -5.9 100 3.6 N/A
-4.9 -7.2
  
  
  
   1H2007
c c
e
8
1 2
19
20
4. 1 2008
2
3 2008 2007
2008
9
2006
2007E
-10.9%
129.2% 104.4% 279.3%
c
d
d
e d d d
21
5. 5.1 P/B P/E P/EV, 5.4 60.3
10 P/E 2007E 56.67 104.22 48.99 601628.CH 601318.CH 601601.CH 48.0 48.5 53.3 2008E 39.6 37.0 53.8 2007E 8.79 7.1 6.0 P/B 2008E 7.40 5.9 4.1 2007E 7.2 5.8 5.1 P/EV 2008 2008E 5.6 4.7 3.5 2008E 60.30 36.51 40.62
2007-1-4
2008 2008 1 3
e d c c c
d
$ $
c
d
40
22
11 P/E 2007E AIG Allianz AXA ING 9.79 7.35 10.56 76.93 P/E 2006 12.19 9.07 11.75 9.41 P/E 2005 18.1 11.38 12.12 9.33 P/B 2007E 15 1.32 1.72 P/B 2006 1.83 1.33 1.34 1.94 P/B 2005 2.05 1.32 1.37 1.73
MetLife Prudential Financial Inc. AFLAC Inc. Lincoln National Corp
10.84 13.19 19.83 11.44
11.33 14.12 16.04 12.92
11.32 13.09 18.28 11.21
1.50 1.78 3.16 1.36
1.48 1.92 2.72 1.50
Manulife Financial Corp. Sun Life Financial Inc.
14.99 14.19
15.68 13.78
17.51 14.41
2.7 2.04
2.45 1.78
Prudential PLC Standard Life PLC
19.4 16.57
19.32 21. 91
17.46 -
2.99 1.94
3.12 2.20
CNP Assurances
8.88
10.99
9.51
1.13
1.13
ALLIANZ LEBENSUERSICHERUNGS
23.87
17.94
15.46
3.35
2.52
Assicurazioni Generali
15.35
17.53
19.51
2.97
2.77
T&D holding Inc.
37.02
51.64
62.93
1.50
1.84
Great Eastern holdings Ltd.
13.69
16.83
18.61
2.51
2.74
Shin Kong Financial holding Cathay Financial holding Taiwan Life Insurance Co Ltd.
31.34 90.36 19.04
14.68 87.47 15.14
13.57 23.15 10.92
1.76 3.17 2.13
1.81 3.07 1.65
33.39 42.26
33.52 34.01
20.37 21.89
6.93 6.46
5.39 5.77
Panin Life TBK PT 2007 12 13 Bloomberg
10.14
8.28
8.22
1.16
1.07
e 1.37 1.61 2.92 1.44 2.32 1.84 1.05 1.81 2.69 2.1 2.65 1.50 2.59 1.91 2.37 2.79 0.92
23
12 P/E 2007E Travelers Cos Inc Allstate Chubb Corporation Progressive Corporation 7.94 7.35 8.82 10.22 P/E 2006 9.10 8.49 9.45 11.48 P/E 2005 15.4 22.81 12.63 16.45 P/B 2007E 1.33 1.37 1.49 2.34 P/B 2006 1.46 1.85 1.57 2.65 P/B 2005 1.4 1.73 1.65 3.77
IAG QBE Insurance Group
13.21 14.49
17.38 15.48
11.18 13.58
1.68 -
2.18 3.73
Taiwan Fire & Marine Union Insurance First Insurance
-
9.22 7.14 11.30
9.16 20.5 56.19 8.96
1.47 1.20 1.08
1.14 6.53 1.24 1.07
Samsung Fire & Marine Dongbu Insurance Hyundai Fire & Marine Meritz Fire & Marine
21.03 13.8 24.62 14.55
22.39 9.63 21.89 11.63
12.58 4.54 5.55 6.29
2.40 2.5 2.19 2.00
1.94 1.95 2.07 1.34
Millea Holding Inc Mitsui Sumitomo Sompo Japan Nipponkoa Fuji Fire & Marine
38.89 34.54 23.34 50.98 25.39
43.98 31.85 24.93 82.11 28.38
40.4 21.60 21.28 44.95 23.21
1.06 0.96 0.99 1.05 1.15
1.22 1.12 1.23 1.09 1.20
29.46 11.34 2007 12 13 Bloomberg
21.41 18.19
27.57 -
4.97 2.16
2.15 2.25
5.2
Multiplier
NBM 10 15-25
60
e 2.43 3.02 0.97 0.58 1.02 1.01
d
d
d
d
d
HFQDUXVQ, JQRNQLK6
1.20 0.95 0.83 0.59
1.16 0.96 1.22 1.03 1.14
1.45 -
New Business
24
5.3 AV Appraisal Value Method Adjusted Net Asset Value
Economic Value Added
EVA
1 2 3
NAV Value of the In Force Portfolio VIF
Value of Ongoing Business, VOB
NAV
Surplus
VIF :
VOB
1 2 3 4
c
d
d
d
c
c
e k c d c d d c d d d c d d c d d d NAV
25
5.4
40 = / Annual Premium Equivalent APE
Gordon 6-15 10%
1-5 3%
13
Gordon
5% 8% 10% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 20% 22% 19.7 21.1 21.8 23.3 24.8 26.5 28.2 29.1 31.0
7.0% 22.2 23.8 24.6 26.3 28.1 30.0 32.0 33.0 35.1
8.0% 23.6 25.3 26.2 28.0 29.9 31.9 34.1 35.2 37.4
9.0% 25.1 26.9 27.9 29.8 31.9 34.0 36.3 37.5 39.9
10.0% 26.8 28.7 29.7 31.8 34.0 36.3 38.7 40.0 42.6
11.0% 28.6 30.6 31.7 33.9 36.3 38.8 41.4 42.7 45.5
12.0% 30.5 32.7 33.8 36.2 38.7 41.4 44.2 45.6 48.6
13.0% 32.5 34.9 36.1 38.7 41.4 44.2 47.2 48.7 52.0
15.0% 37.1 39.8 41.2 44.2 47.3 50.5 54.0 55.7 59.4
2007 2008 10%-20% 6-15 8%-12%
25%
25.3-45.6
2008-2012 GDP 20% 2013-2022 12% 2023 5.3%
d
7.5% 2023 5%
9% GDP 3% 4.5%
?
d c
d
e d c d c d d d c d
26
14
Gordon 2006 2007 233070 11.3 5041 22.0 2.2 2008-2012 358607 9.0 12544 20.0 3.5
12% 2013-2022 739100 7.5 38959 12.0 5.3 2023 761274 3.0 40128 3.0 5.3
GDP
209407
10.7 4132 11.7 2.0
28 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
2006
Sigma
18% 8.9% 18% 15 Gordon 2006 GDP 209407
5%
18% 2007 233070 11.3 5041 22.0 2.2 2008-2012 358607 9.0 12544 20.0 3.5 2013-2022 739100 7.5 65652 18.0 8.9 2023 761274 3.0 67621 3.0 8.9
%
10.7 4132 11.7%
%
%
2.0
c c
e d d d 15
27
0.6 31.0
60%
16
1 2 5 6 10 11 15 16+
1 1.20 2.07 2.32 3.65 4.09 6.44 6.63
17
40% 24.4
40
d
10% 70%
20%
12% 34.3
d
d c
d c
20% 45.6
12%
3%
1 0.95 0.95 0.85 0.85 0.60 0.60 0.60
1 0.91 0.68 0.62 0.42 0.39 0.26 0.24
1 1.04 1.35 1.23 1.32 0.95 1.02 14.97
50% 27.7
60% 31.0
70% 34.3
d 3%
e 10%
c
d
c
31.0 28.90 19.50 20.41 15.09 20.00 14.71 1.00
80% 37.6
28
6. 6.1 1 14639 42.9
601628.SH
2
,
3 2006 3
, 64.8
4 2006 5 60bp 44
2004
1.89% 1.89%
3.03% 10%
/
35
2009
6
56.67
6.2 1
601318.SH 2007
2007
2 10 4.18%
2007
15%
d
d
5% 9% 18.1
d
c
d
d
d d
13% 8.1%
11 2007
7 11 27 199 2007 12
c
d
d c
d
d
d
e c r d d d r q d c c c d c q d d d c c d d
,
2005
4
29
15% 6% 3 2005 6.2%
2004 2006 3
2003 2004-2005 2007
4 46%
46%
5
20.5 36.1%
24.4
19% 68.4
6 6
/ 104.22 16.5%
10.5%
20bp
r q
150bp 38 121.43
2009
c
d
2007 3% 93.09
c
d
d
d
c
d
e d d d d d d c d d c c d d d d c d d d
30
18
2009
6
/ 1H2009 136041 24.75 9533 1.30 38 49.32 74.07
93835
229876 31.30 12336 1.68 38 63.82 95.12 6.97 10.37 5.20 3.78 121.43
6.3 1 “ 5
601601.SH
2
3
75.6%
q
d
d
e d d SE
d
 
r c
d d c
d
r



d c


 (3   (3   %3  (3 


kk
kk
q


d d d
c
r
   
31
4 80bp 34.2 2009 6
/ 50.87
10.5% 80% 31.43
19
2009
6
/ 1H2009E
107804 15.36 4871 0.57 34.20 19.37 34.73
41775 149578 17.39
6687 0.78 34.20 26.59 43.99
6.89 50.87
20 1 601628 601318 4 2007E 56.67 104.22 48.99 2008 1 4
P/E 2008E 39.6 37.0 53.8 2009E 34.8 34.5 42.6 2007E 7.2 5.8 5.1 44 121.43 50.87 48.0 48.5 53.3
P/EV 2008E 5.6 4.7 3.5 2009E 4.5 3.8 3.0

601601
d
48.99 34.2
c
e d 
c SE
d

 


c

(3 

d 
32
c d
c
d
c
d
6 6 6
d
6 6 6 6 6
15% 5% 15% -5% 5% -5% -15% -15% 5% 5% 5% 5%
e d c d d c d d
33
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