渐飞研究报告终端

大容量:共收录国内外各大机构共计45万余份,并且每天以超过500份增加!
更安全:报告加密备份在云存储,从此不怕硬盘损坏丢研究报告!
更省心:工作学习太忙没有时间下载报告,终端自动帮您搞定!
更方便:完全不改变您的使用习惯,不用学习就能上手

免费下载:


运行界面:

The Raw and the Cooked

中银国际

迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
 
 
2 December 2008  (Tuesday)
DAILY SPOTLIGHT
Full Edition 
  Index Performance* (%) 5D 1M YTD
The Raw and the Cooked (49) (54) (50) (55) (56) (46) (67)
HSI HSCEI HSCCI MSCI HK MSCI China MSCI Asia FTSE-Xinhua A50
13 16 12 12 10 4 0
1 12 3 (1) 7 (3) 10
The Cooked MoT & MoR Investment Budgets................................................2   Patrick LI  Sector  Update  —  In  comparing  the  investment  budgets  of  the  Ministry  of  Transport  (MoT)  and  the  Ministry  of  Railway  (MoR),  we  are  more  cautious  about those of the former in the next few years and do not expect significant  growth. We expect actual investments in railway infrastructure during 2006‐10  to reach Rmb1.88trn, or 94% of the adjusted planned amount. As for the MoR,  its  traditional  financing  sources  are  likely  to  meet  its  needs  for  2009,  but,  in  2010,  continual  large‐scale  issuances  of  railway  construction  bonds  will  necessitate  the  need  for  railway  fare  and  tariff  adjustments  to  boost  profitability.   
* BOCI indices are available on Reuters page BOCI 
Leaders (%)
5D 1M YTD
TCL Multimedia (1070.HK) Haier CCT (1169.HK) Beijing Capital Land (2868.HK) Sino-Ocean Land (3377.HK) Agile Property (2007.HK)   Laggards (%)
68 53 49 46 44
91 50 43 49 32
(68) (51) (79) (69) (77)
Sichuan Meifeng – BUY ...........................................................4 (000731.SZ/Rmb6.34; TP: Rmb8.16 )  NI Xiaoman  Rating  Change  —  We  raise  our  target  price  for  Meifeng  from  Rmb5.50  to  Rmb8.16,  based  on  2009E  P/E  of  12x  and  EPS  of  Rmb0.68.  We  upgrade  our  rating for the stock from HOLD to BUY.   
5D 1M YTD
Playmates Holdings (0635.HK) Natural Beauty (0157.HK) ASMC (3355.HK) Xinyu Hengdeli (3389.HK) Kingway Brewery (0124.HK)   US ADR Closings Bank of East Asia (0023.HK) Cathay Pacific (0293.HK) Chalco (2600.HK) Cheung Kong (0001.HK) China Life (2628.HK) China Mobile (0941.HK) China Southern (1055.HK) China Telecom (0728.HK) China Unicom (0762.HK) CLP Holdings (0002.HK) CNOOC Ltd (0883.HK) Guangshen Railway (0525.HK) Henderson Land (0012.HK) HK & China Gas (0003.HK) HK Electric (0006.HK) HSBC (0005.HK) Huaneng Power (0902.HK) Hutchison (0013.HK) Johnson Electric (0179.HK) Lenovo (0992.HK) PCCW (0008.HK) PetroChina (0857.HK) SHK Properties (0016.HK) Sinopec (0386.HK) SMIC (0981.HK) Swire Pacific (0019.HK) Techtronic (0669.HK) Tsingtao Brewery (0168.HK) Yanzhou Coal (1171.HK)
(30) (18) (13) (11) (7)
(33) 10 (27) (35) 57
(90) (52) (76) (79) (68)
Next Media – BUY ......................................................................6 (0282.HK/HK$0.95; TP: HK$1.25 )  Allan NG  Target Price Change — Based on 6.3x of 12‐month forward P/E (two standard  deviations below the 17.8x average that the stock has commanded since 2005),  we lower our target price for Next Media to HK$1.25 from HK$3.90. 
HK$ (%) 15.11 7.83 3.30 66.04 19.42 67.78 0.88 2.72 8.27 52.86 5.84 2.56 25.04 12.56 41.78 77.87 4.38 36.51 1.24 1.77 3.49 6.00 59.84 4.61 0.15 50.54 2.42 15.35 0.76 (8) (1) (11) (8) (5) (7) (6) (9) (9) (4) (10) (8) (6) (4) (3) (8) (8) (4) (5) (6) (1) (9) (4) (8) (5) (4) 3 (6) (82)
The Raw Residential market takes new hit from mortgage rate rise .... 10   Manfred HO, CFA  Snippet  —  HSBC  Holdings,  the  largest  mortgage  lender  in  Hong  Kong,  yesterday raised its mortgage rate by 50‐75bp to P‐1‐1.5%, or 3.5‐4%. The rate  rise  is  the  biggest  in  10  years  as  concerns  over  higher  risk  of  lending  linger  amid the deepening credit crisis.   
New measures to stimulate domestic consumption ................ 10   YE Bingnan  Snippet — The Ministry of Finance (MoF) and other related government bodies  have  jointly  announced  an  extension  of  the  household  appliance  subsidy  programme to the next four years.   
MIIT grants BYD licence to launch F3DM ................................. 11 (1211.HK/HK$11.64, BUY)  Frank HE  Snippet  —  The  Ministry  of  Industry  and  Information  Technology  (MIIT)  has  issued BYD Co a licence to manufacture and sell its plug‐in hybrid F3DM car  model in China.   
Jidong Cement to set up JV in Shanxi Province ....................... 11 (000401.SZ/Rmb10.79, BUY)  Grace TANG  Snippet — Jidong Cement has announced plans to set up a joint venture, to be  called Jidong Jiaocheng Cement Co, with Shanxi Fengshan Cement Co Ltd. 
BOCI research is available electronically on Bloomberg (BOCR <go>), firstcall.com, multex.com and at www.bociresearch.com.  Any views expressed in this report reflect the current personal views of the analyst and do not necessarily represent the views of BOC International or any of its affiliates. 
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
 
 
INDUSTRIALS — C & I MoT & MoR Investment Budgets      
Sector Update
Patrick LI pan.li@bocigroup.com (8610) 6622 9073
More cautious about MoT investments in next few years.  In  comparing  the  investment  budgets  of  the  Ministry  of  Transport  (MoT) and the Ministry of Railway (MoR), we are more cautious about  those of the former in the next few years and do not expect significant  growth. We expect actual investments in railway infrastructure during  2006‐10 to reach Rmb1.88trn, or 94% of the adjusted planned amount.  Given the restrictions in the approval, survey, design and execution of  new construction projects, we believe actual investments may come in  less  than  planned.  Nevertheless,  the  MoR’s  incremental  investments  for 2006‐10 will likely still exceed Rmb600bn, compared with original  budget  of  Rmb1.25trn  under  the  11th  Five‐year  Plan.  Those  set  to  benefit most are China Railway Group Ltd (CRGL, 0390.HK/HK$5.11;  601390.SS/Rmb5.84, BUY) China Railway Construction Corp (CRCC,  1186.HK/HK$10.22;  601186.SS/Rmb10.00,  BUY)  and  China  Railway  Erju  (000528.SS/Rmb8.50,  NR).  A full report in English is now available.  Urgent to drive growth through investments. As net exports  may decline and domestic consumption growth is likely to slow next  year,  it  has  become  an  urgent  task  to  drive  industry  recovery  and  consumption growth through investments.   MoT to try to keep FAI at Rmb1trn in next two years. The  MoT  has  said  it  will  try  to  keep  fixed  asset  investments  (FAI)  in  transport  at  Rmb1trn  in  each  of  the  next  two  years.  However,  we  believe  it  will  be  hard  pressed  to  deliver,  as:  i)  road,  water  and  air  transport  are  relatively  well  developed;  ii)  the  MoT’s  proportion  of  self‐raised  funds  has  been  healthy  in  recent  years,  showing  high  degree of market‐oriented financing; iii) still, traditional market‐based  financing  is  not  effective  under  the  current  macro‐economic  outlook  and  securing  new  funds  through  the  administrative  coordination  of  various departments is no easy feat.  MoR to invest Rmb600bn on infrastructure in 2009. The  MoR  has  said  it  plans  to  invest  Rmb600bn  in  infrastructure  and  Rmb100bn in locomotives in 2009 and also plans to fork out Rmb3.5trn  during 2009‐11. Railway construction has long been a lag and demand  is huge. In the past, the MoR’s funds were mainly “national” and, in  such unusual cases, it can issue railway construction bonds on a large  scale. So, the funds for 2009 are largely secured. It is also expected that  funds will be raised through further issuances of railway construction  bonds  (on  the  precondition  that  MoR  profitability  can  be  secured  through raising freight rate and fares), or directly through state‐issued  special construction bonds. We have raised our 2009‐10 estimates for  railway  infrastructure  investments.  However,  they  remain  much  lower  than  the  figures  that  the  government  announced,  which  highlights our concerns over financing and construction bottlenecks.  2 December 2008 (Tuesday)  The Raw and the Cooked  2 
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
 
Major beneficiaries of government investments.  We  believe the major beneficiaries of the planned government investments  will be CRGL, CRCC and China Railway Erju.  This is an extract from an updated English translation of Chinese report, which we issued yesterday. The Chinese report was issued on 19 November 2008 as an update on the China construction and infrastructure sub-sector.
2 December 2008 (Tuesday) 
The Raw and the Cooked 

THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
 
Share Price vs. Index Rmb 22 18 14 10 6 01/12/07 01/01/08 01/02/08 01/03/08 01/04/08 01/05/08 01/06/08 01/07/08 01/08/08 01/09/08 01/10/08 01/11/08 01/12/08 2 Turnover (Rmb m) 900 720 540 360 180 0
CHEMICALS — Fertilisers Sichuan Meifeng (000731.SZ/Rmb6.34 — BUY )     
Rating Change Target Price: Rmb8.16 NI Xiaoman xiaoman.ni@bocigroup.com (8621) 6860 4866 ext. 8319
Sichuan Meifeng
FTSE-Xinhua A50
Sources: Bloomberg, BOCI Research 
  Share Price Performance Absolute (%) Relative to FTSEXinhua A50 (%) 1M 45 36 3M 3 27 6M (42) 8
Valuation.  We  visited  Sichuan  Meifeng’s  Deyang  plant  in  Sichuan  Province last Thursday. In view of the relatively assured demand for  the urea industry and the resumption of urea production volume, we  project that Meifeng’s earnings will turn around and grow about 30%  YoY  in  2009  after  a  most  difficult  2008.  We  raise  our  target  price  for  Meifeng from Rmb5.50 to Rmb8.16, based on 2009E P/E of 12x and EPS  of Rmb0.68. We upgrade our rating for the stock from HOLD to BUY.  Current year most difficult period.  The  current  year  has  the  been  most  difficult  period  in  Meifeng  production  history.  Given  the  impact  of  the  earthquake  in  May  and  snow  disaster  in  January,  the  company’s urea production volume will come in down about 10% YoY  at  0.75m‐0.8m  tonnes  in  2008.  The  company  believes  that  its  production volume in Sichuan Province will return to the normal level  of around 0.85m tonnes in 2009.  Relative stability in store for urea industry in 2009.  Meifeng’s  urea  ex‐factory  price  now  stands  at  Rmb1,725/tonne  and  management  has  said  it  believes  the  level  next  year  be  above  Rmb1,600/tonne due to higher costs of raw materials, such as coal and  natural gas. Although the domestic urea industry faces an oversupply  situation,  the  total  utilisation  rate  of  the  industry  currently  stands  at  only 70‐80% given the squeeze from the high raw‐material costs. The  company  has  estimated  that  fluctuation  in  the  price  of  urea  in  2009  will  be  less  than  that  in  2008  due  to  the  impact  of  new  export  tariff  policy. Overall, the company believes that the domestic urea industry  will  strike  a  relatively  stable  demand‐supply  balance  allowing  the  price to be steady.   Natural gas supply situation.  Meifeng’s  urea  plant  utilisation  rate  now  stands  at  around  80%  and  its  average  natural  gas  price  at  Rmb1.09/sqm, while that for its use in fertiliser is about Rmb0.89/sqm.  Amid the shortage in supply, the company’s natural gas cost for 2008,  relative to 2007, has risen about Rmb8.4m and its unit urea production  cost  has  increased  about  Rmb100  to  Rmb1,300‐1,400/tonne.  The  company is unsure if the price of natural gas will be rise in 2009, but  has estimated that, if it goes up, the rate of increase next year will not  be  steep,  given  the  high  level  in  2008.  In  addition,  Meifeng  has  estimated that the positive impacts of the Puguang and Fasten Sichuan  gas  fields,  explorations  of  which  will  continue  until  2010,  is  still  unclear.    
Sources: Bloomberg, BOCI Research 
  Key Data Total issued shares (m) 499.84 Free float (%) 76.8 Free float mkt. cap. (Rmb m) 2,427 3M avg. daily turnover (Rmb m) 26 Net debt/equity (%) 20 Major shareholder (%) Chengdu Huachuan Petro Chemical Group 14.4 Sources: Company data, Bloomberg, BOCI Research 
  Date of last note: 22 October 2008 
2 December 2008 (Tuesday) 
The Raw and the Cooked 

THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
 
Information on some subsidiaries.  Apart from its 1m tonnes  per annum (tpa) urea capacity in Sichuan, Meifeng has acquired some  assets  in  recent  years.  These  include  Guizhou  Fertiliser  (51%  stake  with 300,000tpa urea capacity), Lanzhou Fertiliser (55.78% stake with  100,000tpa  urea  capacity)  and  Liujiaxia  Chemical  (45%  stake  with  300,000tpa urea capacity). Due to technological disadvantage and the  burden  of  having  nearly  4,000  employees,  urea  production  cost  of  Guizhou Fertiliser is more than Rmb2,000/tonne now and it has had to  stop output this year to upgrade its technology before the year is out.  Meifeng estimates that Guizhou Fetiliser will post a loss for 2008 and,  if successful in completing its technological upgrade, and book a profit  for 2009. As for Lanzhou Fertiliser, its unit urea production cost now  stands at around Rmb1,600‐1,700/tonne and Meifeng estimates that it  will book a profit of Rmb1m in 2008. We believe Liujiaxia Chemical is  Meifeng’s best asset among all subsidiaries using natural gas as a raw  material. Meifeng projects that Liujiaxia it will register a profit of more  than  Rmb80m  this  year  and  bring  investment  income  of  more  than  Rmb40m. The company believes that if it can own more than 50% of  Liujiaxia,  its  earnings  contribution  will  amount  to  more  than  Rmb100m  a  year,  given  the  management  advantage  of  the  major  shareholder.  Slowdown in capacity expansion of late. As some equipment  costs  will  decline  in  the  next  few  years,  Meifeng  plans  to  delay  the  construction  of  some  new  projects,  including  a  new  300,000tpa  urea  project at Mianyang City. We do not expect this project to commence  operations until 2011.    Earnings for 2009E to turn around and rise 30% YoY. If  there are no accidents next year, we expect the company’s urea sales  volume  will  to  return  to  0.9m  tonnes,  the  level  in  2007.  We  estimate  Meifeng’s  average  selling  price  for  urea  next  year  to  be  around  Rmb1,750/tonne and its gross margin to come in at 23%. As such, we  project  that  the  company’s  2009  earnings  will  grow  30%  YoY  to  Rmb339m.  
Investment Summary Year ended 31 Dec Revenue (Rmb m) Change (%) Net profit (Rmb m) Fully diluted EPS (Rmb) Change (%) P/E (x) CFPS (Rmb) P/CF (x) EV/EBITDA (x) DPS (Rmb) Yield (%) 2006 1,364 21 249 0.498 9 12.7 1.541 4.1 6.5 0.50 7.9 2007 2,053 51 315 0.630 27 10.0 1.776 3.6 5.9 0.52 8.2 2008E 3,317 62 262 0.524 (17) 12.0 1.631 3.9 4.0 0.40 6.3 2009E 4,224 27 339 0.678 30 9.3 2.120 3.0 3.5 0.50 7.9 2010E 5,069 20 451 0.901 33 7.0 3.251 1.9 3.2 0.57 3.2
Sources: Company data, BOCI Research estimates 
2 December 2008 (Tuesday) 
The Raw and the Cooked 

THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
MEDIA — Printing and Publishing                         Allan Ng (852) 2905 2108 allan.ng@bocigroup.com
Target Price Change
2 December 2008
Next Media Interim results below forecast We have cut our profit forecasts and target price for Next Media following the disappointing interim results, which was mainly due to a weak performance of the Taiwan Apple Daily.
BUY 0282.HK – HK$0.95 Target Price: HK$1.25 ( 3.90)
Key Points Supporting Rating The  stock  trades  at  less  than  5x  12‐month  forward  P/E,  suggesting limited downside risk.   With net cash of HK$271m (HK$0.112 per share), we believe  the 9.5% yield is sustainable.  Lower newsprint prices will alleviate pressure on the bottom  line. 
Key Risks to Rating The Taiwan advertising market has been much weaker than  expected  in  the  last  few  months  as  the  new  administration  struggles with the economy.  The  global  economic  slowdown  is also taking its  toll  on  the  Hong Kong advertising market. 
Share Price vs Index 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Dec-07
90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Relative to HSI
Valuation Our  target  P/E  of 6.3x  is  two‐standard deviations  below  the  17.8x average since 2005.  Despite  our  lower  profit  forecasts,  the  company  is  likely  to  achieve  return  on  equity  (ROE)  of  some  24%  this  year  compared with 30% in 2007.    Investment Summary Year ended 31 Mar Revenue (HK$ m) Change (%) Net profit (HK$ m) Fully diluted EPS (HK$) Change (%) Previous EPS (HK$) Change (%) I/B/E/S EPS (HK$) P/E (x) CFPS (HK$) P/CF (x) EV/EBITDA (x) DPS (HK$) Yield (%) 2007 3,241 (2) 340 0.14 (29.2) 6.7 0.27 12.5 3.4 0.15 15.9 2008 3,479 7 516 0.21 51.7 4.4 0.27 6.0 2.5 0.24 25.3 2009E 3,614 4 436 0.18 (15.6) 0.234 (23) 0.22 5.3 0.19 7.6 2.6 0.09 9.5 2010E 3,654 1 488 0.20 11.9 0.275 (26) 0.24 4.7 0.21 6.5 1.9 0.10 10.5 2011E 3,775 3 550 0.23 12.8 0.306 (26) 0.24 4.2 0.23 5.5 1.4 0.11 11.6
Turnover(HK$ m)(RHS)
Next Media
Sources: Bloomberg, BOCI Research 
Share Price Performance Absolute (%) Relative to HSMLCI (%) YTD 1M 3M 12M (32.6) (21.0) (39.4) (32.6) (67.1) (13.6) (60.4) (67.1)
Sources: Bloomberg, BOCI Research
Key Data Total issued shares (m) Free float (%) Free float mkt. cap. (HK$ m) 3M avg. daily turnover (HK$ m) Net debt/equity (%) Major shareholders (%) Jimmy Lai 2,413 26 598 1 Net cash 74
Sources: Company data, Bloomberg, BOCI Research estimates 
Sources: Company data, BOCI Research estimates
BOCI research is available electronically on Bloomberg (BOCR <go>), firstcall.com, multex.com and at www.bociresearch.com. NB: BUY = ≥+10% compared with the relevant benchmark index over a 6-month period; SELL= ≤-10% compared with the relevant benchmark index over a 6-month period; HOLD = ≤+10% and ≥-10% compared with the relevant benchmark index over a 6-month period; Not Rated (NR)
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
Forecasts trimmed, target price cut  Following  Next  Media’s  disappointing  interim  results,  we  trim  our  profit forecasts by 23% to HK$436m (EPS: HK$x0.181) for its fiscal year  to 31 March 2009 and by 26% to HK$488m (EPS: HK$x0.202) for FY10.  Based  on  6.3x  of  12‐month  forward  P/E  (two  standard  deviations  below the 17.8x average that the stock has commanded since 2005), we  lower our target price for Next Media to HK$1.25 from HK$3.90. We  believe the downside risk of the stock is quite limited from this level  and reaffirm our BUY rating. 
Interim profit down 3% YoY  Next Media’s net income for the first half of its fiscal year to 31 March  2009  declined  3.3%  YoY  to  HK$208m  (EPS:  HK$0.086),  about  14.4%  below our estimate and, we believe, at the low end of market forecasts.  The main discrepancy between our forecasts and the actual results was  the weaker revenue of Taiwan Apple Daily, while costs were in line.  
No interim dividend  The  company  has  decided  not  to  pay  an  interim  dividend,  which  points to a cautious outlook for the rest of the year. However, with net  cash of HK$271m as at end‐September, we believe the company will  be  able  to  keep  final  dividend  at  last  year’s  level  of  HK$0.09.  This  represents  a  payout  ratio  of  about  50%,  compared  with  more  than  100%  in  the  last  three  years.  Our  dividend  forecast  implies  a  very  attractive 9.5% yield.  
Hong Kong ad revenue growth strong  Revenue for 1HFY09 grew 5.1% YoY to nearly HK$1.8bn, about 3.1%  below our estimate. The Hong Kong businesses performed well, with  the Apple Daily showing growth of 9% YoY in advertising revenue to  HK$347m, thanks to the Beijing Olympics in August. The magazines  division  also  did  better  than  expected  with  revenue  growth  of  9.4%  YoY to HK$471m.  Results Analysis (HK$ m) Turnover Total revenue Cash costs EBITDA Depreciation Operating profit Pretax profit Tax Net profit FD recurrent EPS (HK$) DPS (HK$) Key ratios (%) Operating margin EBITDA margin Net margin Excluding exceptional items  Sources: Company data, BOCI estimate 
1HFY08 1,708 1,734 (1,401) 333 (67) 266 257 (42) 215 0.089 0.050
1HFY09 1,795 1,836 (1,524) 312 (68) 244 238 (30) 208 0.086 0.000
YoY% 5.1 5.8 8.7 (6.4) 1.3 (8.3) (7.5) (29.1) (3.3) (3.3) (100.0)
HoH% 1.4 3.3 11.3 (23.5) (0.6) (28.1) (33.2) (46.8) (30.7) (30.7) (100.0)
15.3 19.2 12.4
13.3 17.0 11.3
2 December 2008
Next Media THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
2
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
Taiwan Apple Daily disappoints  The Taiwan Next Magazine also performed well with revenue growth of  11.7% YoY to HK$117m, again better than our estimate. However, the  Taiwan  Apple  Daily  disappointed,  with  revenue  up  just  1.8%  YoY  to  HK$619m.  
Cost pressure persisted, but likely to ease  Operating  expenses  rose  8.4%  YoY  to  HK$1.59bn,  in  line  with  our  expectation,  mainly  on  the  back  of  an  11%  YoY  climb  in  production  costs.  The  main  culprit  was  rising  newsprint  prices,  which  went  up  some  17%  YoY  in  1HFY09,  in  line  with  our  forecast.  We  believe  newsprint  prices  will  start  declining,  following  the  Olympics  in  August  and  the  US  general  elections  in  November,  traditionally  two  main  events  that  push  them  up  temporarily.  For  FY09,  we  expect  a  10% average increase in newsprint prices and then a 5% fall in FY10. A  faster decline will help Next Media’s bottom line, as newsprint makes  up more than a quarter of the company’s operating expenses.   US Newsprint Prices US$/tonne 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 06/01 10/01 02/02 06/02 10/02 02/03 06/03 10/03 02/04 06/04 10/04 02/05 06/05 10/05 02/06 06/06 10/06 02/07 06/07 10/07 02/08 06/08 10/08 400
Source: Bloomberg 
 
Taiwan acquisition still possible  Although  Next  Media  recently  failed  to  acquire  any  of  the  print  or  electronic  media  assets  in  Taiwan’s  China  Times  Group,  we  suspect  there are still opportunities. As the economy decelerates further, many  of  Taiwan’s  loss‐making  media  will  find  it  increasingly  difficult  to  survive. With net equity of HK$3.1bn and net cash of HK$271m, Next  Media can afford a modest acquisition without stretching its balance  sheet  too  far.  An  acquisition  of  the  size  of  the  China  Times  deal  (reportedly valued at US$620m or HK$4.8bn), however, may have to  be made jointly with major shareholder Jimmy Lai.       
2 December 2008
Next Media THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
3
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
Income Statement (HK$ m) Year ended 31 Mar Revenue Cost of sales Operating expenses Operating profit (EBIT) Depreciation & amortisation EBITDA Net interest income/(expense) Other gains/(losses) Pre-tax Profit Taxes on profit Minority interests Net profit Core net profit EPS (HK$) Core EPS (HK$) DPS (HK$) Revenue Growth (%) EBIT Growth (%) EBITDA Growth (%) EPS Growth (%) Core EPS Growth (%) 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 3,241 3,479 3,614 3,654 3,775 0 0 0 0 0 (2,864) (2,906) (3,159) (3,140) (3,192) 377 573 455 514 583 157 135 135 135 130 534 708 590 649 713 8 8 13 19 22 24 33 45 47 50 409 614 513 581 655 (71) (98) (77) (93) (105) 2 0 0 0 0 340 516 436 488 550 340 516 436 488 550 0.14 0.21 0.18 0.20 0.23 0.14 0.21 0.18 0.20 0.23 0.15 0.24 0.09 0.10 0.11 (2) 7 4 1 3 (28) 52 (21) 13 13 (20) 33 (17) 10 10 (52) 52 (16) 12 13 (56) 52 (16) 12 13
Balance Sheet (HK$ m) Year ended 31 Mar Cash & cash equivalents Receivables Inventories Other current assets Total current assets Fixed assets Intangible assets Other long term assets Total long-term assets Total Assets Creditors Short-term debt Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term borrowings Other long tem liabilities Share capital Reserves Shareholder's equity Minority interest Total liabilities & equity Book value per share (HK$) Tangible Asset per share(HK$) Net debt(cash)per share 2007 868 576 203 3 1,649 1,572 1,301 80 2,952 4,601 486 128 22 635 285 323 2,412 945 3,357 0 4,601 1.39 0.85 (0.19) 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 877 1,046 1,240 1,453 581 623 620 646 189 211 206 217 3 3 3 3 1,650 1,883 2,070 2,319 1,577 1,532 1,507 1,490 1,301 1,301 1,301 1,301 70 72 72 72 2,948 2,905 2,880 2,863 4,598 4,788 4,949 5,182 463 511 502 526 78 78 78 78 27 26 28 28 568 615 607 632 288 211 134 58 333 333 333 333 2,412 2,412 2,412 2,412 998 1,216 1,463 1,747 3,409 3,628 3,874 4,159 0 1 1 1 4,598 4,788 4,949 5,182 1.41 1.50 1.61 1.72 0.87 0.96 1.07 1.18 (0.21) (0.31) (0.43) (0.55)
Sources: Company data,BOCI Research estimates 
  Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m) Year ended 31 Mar Pre-tax profit Net interest expenses Change in working capital Tax paid Other operating cash flows Cash flow from operations Net purchase of fixed assets Decrease/(increase) in invest. Other investing cash flows Cash flow from investing Net increase in equity Net increase in debt Dividends paid Other financing cash flows Cash flow from financing Change in cash Cash at beginning of year Free cash flow to firm Free cash flow to equity 2007 409 (8) 54 0 157 612 (114) 2 (5) (118) 0 155 (397) 0 (242) 253 676 494 650 2008 614 (8) 34 0 135 775 (70) 1 (2) (71) 0 (62) (543) 0 (605) 99 868 704 642 2009E 513 (13) (18) 0 135 617 (90) 0 0 (90) 0 (77) (217) 0 (294) 233 877 527 450 2010E 581 (19) 0 0 135 696 (110) 0 0 (110) 0 (77) (241) 0 (318) 268 1,046 586 510 2011E 655 (22) (11) 0 130 751 (113) 0 0 (113) 0 (77) (265) 0 (342) 296 1,240 638 561
Sources: Company data,BOCI Research estimates 
  Key Ratios Analysis (%) Year ended 31 Mar 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E Profitability EBITDA Margin (%) 16.5 20.4 16.3 17.8 18.9 EBIT Margin (%) 11.6 16.5 12.6 14.1 15.4 Pre-tax margin (%) 12.6 17.6 14.2 15.9 17.3 Net profit margin (%) 10.5 14.8 12.1 13.3 14.6 Liquidity Current ratio (x) 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.7 Net debt to equity (%) Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Quick ratio (x) 2.3 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.3 Valuation P/E (x) 6.7 4.4 5.3 4.7 4.2 Core P/E (x) 6.7 4.4 5.3 4.7 4.2 Core P/E @ target price 8.9 5.8 6.9 6.2 5.5 P/B (x) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 P/CF (x) 12.5 6.0 7.6 6.5 5.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 3.4 2.5 2.6 1.9 1.4 Activity Ratios Inventory days 11.4 9.9 10.7 10.3 10.5 Accounts receivables days 32.4 30.5 31.5 31.0 31.2 Accounts paybles days 27.4 24.3 25.8 25.1 25.4 Returns Dividend payout ratio (%) 107.3 112.2 49.8 49.5 48.3 Return on equity (%) 20.3 30.3 24.0 25.2 26.4 20.9 16.2 17.5 18.9 Return on assets (%) 13.5 Return on capital employed (%) 20.0 30.3 23.2 25.2 27.1 Sources: Company data,BOCI Research estimates  
Sources: Company data,BOCI Research estimates  
 
 
2 December 2008
Next Media THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
4
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
 
 
HONG KONG & CHINA — Raw Snippets Residential market takes new hit from mortgage rate rise   Manfred HO, CFA 
HSBC  Holdings  (0005.HK/HK$84.40,  SELL),  the  largest  mortgage  lender in Hong Kong, yesterday raised its mortgage rate by 50‐75 basis  points to P‐1‐1.5%, or 3.5‐4%. The rate rise is the biggest in 10 years as  concerns over higher risk of lending linger amid the deepening credit  crisis. If the other banks follow suit, the affordability ratio will increase  from the current 33% to 34‐36%, the 2Q07 level. According to a report  in  the  Hong Kong Economic Journal,  other  market  participants  believe  the mortgage rate will rise further next year to P‐0.5%. We believe the  rising  mortgage  rate  will  cast  a  further  pall  on  the  outlook  of  the  residential property outlook. The move is in line with our expectation  of higher mortgage rates due to the tighter credit of banks, as stated in  our 24 November 2008 sector report, entitled “Residential Outlook ‐‐  Correction until end‐2009”. We reaffirm our view that property prices  will  drop  a  further  20%  for  mass  residential  properties  and  25%  for  high‐end ones byt the end of 2009. We reiterate our Underweight call  on the Hong Kong developers sector. Among listed companies in the  sector,  we  believe  MTR  Corp  (0066.HK/HK$17.30,  BUY)  is  more  defensive due to its stronger earnings and the improving outlook for  its  non‐property  operations.  In  our  view,  Sino  Land  (0083.HK/  HK$6.14,  SELL)  and  New  World  Development  (0017.HK/HK$6.39,  SELL) are likely to see higher downsides.   
New measures to stimulate domestic consumption   YE Bingnan 
The  Ministry  of  Finance  (MoF) and  other  related  government  bodies  have  jointly  announced  an  extension  of  the  household  appliance  subsidy programme to the next four years. Under the programme, the  MoF  will  provide  farmers  with  a  subsidy  of  13%  when  they  buy  designated  appliances,  such  as  colour  television  sets,  refrigerators,  washing  machines  and  mobile  phones.  Pilot  programmes  were  launched in the provinces of Shandong, Henan, Sichuan and Qingdao  in  December 2007 and  will  be  expanded  nationwide effective from  1  February  2009.  According  to  official  forecasts,  the  programme  will  result in total retail sales of Rmb920bn over the next four years; or an  annual  average  of  Rmb230bn.  The  total  retail  sales  stood  at  Rmb8,921bn  in  2007.  This  policy  may  have  some  impact  one  manufacturers  of  related  products.  However,  there  will  likely  be  no  significant impact on the macroeconomics performance since its effect  on growth of retail sales will be limited. However, it signals that the  government has begun to consider policies to stimulate the domestic  consumption.  We  believe  the  MoF  will  probably  raise  further  the  threshold  for  individual  income  tax.  The  government  will  also  increase  expenditure  on  education,  health,  pension  and  employment  projects to boost domestic consumption.  10
2 December 2008 (Tuesday) 
The Raw and the Cooked 
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
 
 
MIIT issues BYD licence to launch F3DM   Frank HE 
The  Ministry  of  Industry  and  Information  Technology  (MIIT)  has  issued  BYD  Co  (1211.HK/HK$11.64,  BUY)  a  licence  to  manufacture  and  sell  its  plug‐in  hybrid  F3DM  model  in  China.  The  licence  meets  management’s  target  to  launch  the  product  at  the  end  of  2008  and  underpins BYD’s growing strategy through its early move into China’s  plug‐in  hybrid  car  industry.  More  importantly,  we  believe  the  government’s approval will partly ease concerns of investors over the  reliability of F3DM. We expect shipments of F3DM to reach 4,000 units  in  2009  and  48,000  in  2010  and  see  upside  potential  to  our  current  estimate  amid  the  rising  support  from  government.  BYD  intends  to  start selling the F3DM from the middle of this month. The granting of  the licence shows that the Chinese Government is intensifying efforts  to  promote  new‐energy  cars.  A  Ministry  of  Finance  official  recently  said that the government was going to subsidise users of new‐energy  cars. The subsidy awarded will depend on the energy‐savings amount  any  one  vehicle  achieves,  which  is  favourable  to  the  F3DM  as  it  has  superior  such  features  than  most  other  hybrid  cars.  Chongqing  has  become  the  first  city  in  China  to  enjoy  the  subsidy  and  the  total  amount nationwide is expected to reach Rmb20bn in 2012. We believe  BYD is well positioned to ride this trend and reaffirm our BUY rating  on it.    
Jidong Cement to set up JV in Shanxi Province   Grace TANG 
Jidong  Cement  (000401.SZ/Rmb10.79,  BUY)  has  announced  plans  to  set up a joint venture, to be called Jidong Jiaocheng Cement Co, with  Shanxi Fengshan Cement Co Ltd. Plans for JV call for the construction  of a 1,800 tonnes/day production line under Phase I and a 4,500t/d line  under Phase II with waste heat power generation. The total investment  in  Jiaocheng,  to  be  located  about  67km  from  Taiyuan  in  Shanxi  Province, will amount to Rmb1bn. Jidong’s equity to net‐debt ratio is  just  26%,  making  it  well  able  to  support  the  investment.  The  announcement is in line with the company’s Shanxi market strategy.  However,  the  investment  cost  of  Rmb512/tonne  is  higher  than  the  industry average. We regard the announcement as neutral to Jidong’s  share‐price performance going forward.        
2 December 2008 (Tuesday) 
The Raw and the Cooked 
11
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
 
DISCLOSURE   The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analysts. Each analyst declares  that neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of nor has any financial interests in relation to the  listed  corporation  reviewed  by  the  analyst.  None  of  the  listed  corporations  reviewed  or  any  third  party  has  provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in connection with this report to any of the  analysts,  BOCI  Research  Limited  and  BOCI  Group.  Member  companies  of  BOCI  Group  confirm  that  they,  whether individually or as a group (i) do not own 1% or more financial interests in any of the listed corporations  reviewed; or (ii) do not have any individual employed by or associated with any member companies of BOCI  Group  serving  as  an  officer  of  any  of  the  listed  corporation  reviewed.  Certain  member  companies  of  BOCI  Group are involved in making a market in the securities of HSBC Holdings and MTR Corp. Certain member  companies  of  BOCI  Group  has/have  had  investment  banking  relationships  with  China  Railway  Group  Ltd  within the preceding 12 months.  This disclosure statement is made pursuant to paragraph 16 of the “Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or  Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission” and is updated as of 28 November 2008. Waiver has  been  obtained  by  BOC  International  Holdings  Limited  from  the  Securities  and  Futures  Commission  of  Hong  Kong to disclose any interest the Bank of China Group may have in this research report.       
2 December 2008 (Tuesday) 
The Raw and the Cooked 
12
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
 
      20/F, Bank of China Tower 1 Garden Road Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2867 6333 Fax: (852) 2147 9513
BOCI’s daily product is christened “The Raw and the Cooked” with inspiration from the legendary Professor Claude Lévi-Strauss, whose groundbreaking research into “Mythology” 40 years ago showed that even apparently trivial and unintelligible myths form a vast and intricate system of parallels and oppositions — a system whose complexity far transcends that of any one particular myth. In that sense, Myths are no different from Stock Markets, in which investors and analysts claim to see logics but nonetheless become mesmerised by irrational exuberance from time to time. After all, both myths and stock markets are but manifestations of the human mind. For the practical purposes of humble stockbroking research, “The Raw and the Cooked” offers both “raw materials” (eg, visit notes, key statistics) to disillusioned clients who no longer have faith in stockbrokers' recommendations and forecasts as well as “delicious” end-product “cuisines” for generalists who cannot afford to cover a full spectrum of stocks in detail. DISCLAIMER This report was originally prepared and issued by BOCI Research Limited for distribution to their professional, accredited and institutional investor customers. It is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject BOCI Research Limited, BOC International Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “BOCI Group”) to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdictions. None of the material, nor its contents, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of BOCI Group. All trademarks, service marks and logos used in this report are trademarks or service marks or registered trademarks or service marks of BOCI Group. The information, tools and material presented in this report are provided to you for information purposes only and shall not be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. BOCI Group may not have taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this report are suitable for any particular investor. The contents of this report do not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a customer of BOCI Group by virtue of receiving this report. Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by BOCI Group to be reliable, but BOCI Group makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness and BOCI Group accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report unless such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. BOCI Group may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. The reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. For the avoidance of doubt, views expressed in this report do not necessarily represent those of BOCI Group. This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, various websites. To the extent that this report refers to material outside BOCI Group’s own website, BOCI Group has not reviewed the linked sites and takes no responsibility for the content contained therein. Such address or hyperlink (including addresses or hyperlinks to BOCI Group’s own website material) is provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked sites does not in any way form part of this report. Accessing such websites shall be at your own risk. BOCI Group may, to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities referred to in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or other financial instruments thereon. BOCI Group may, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the information or opinions presented herein, or the research or analysis on which they are based, before the material is published. BOCI Group and the analysts preparing this report (each an “analyst” and collectively the “analysts”) may have relationships with, financial interests in or business relationships with any or all of the companies mentioned in this report (each a “listed corporation” and collectively the “listed corporations”). See “Disclosure”. Information, opinions and estimates are provided on an “as in” basis without warranty of any kind and may be changed at any time without prior notice. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice nor a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances. Nothing in this report constitutes a personal recommendation to you. This report has been prepared and issued by BOCI Research Limited. This information is confidential and is intended solely for the use of its recipient. This report is distributed in Hong Kong by BOCI Research Limited and BOCI Securities Limited; in Singapore by BOC International (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.; and in the United Kingdom by Bank of China International (UK) Limited. This information may only be issued or passed on to any person in the United Kingdom if that person is of a kind described in Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotions) Order 2001 or otherwise pursuant to exemptions to section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. In addition, no person who is an Authorised Person may issue or pass on this information, or otherwise promote BOCI Group, to any person in the United Kingdom other than under the rules of the Financial Services Authority (FSA) applicable to such Authorised Persons. This report and any information, material and contents herein are intended for general circulation only and do not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs or any particular person. The investment(s) mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this report should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of such investment(s), taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to purchase any of such investment(s). The suitablity of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on, described in or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on a person’s individual circumstances and objectives and should be confirmed by such person with his advisers independently before adoption or implementation thereof (either as is or is varied). Without prejudice to any of the foregoing disclaimers, to the extent that the reader is an accredited or expert investor as defined in Regulation 2 of the Financial Advisers Regulations (“FAR”) of the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) of Singapore (“FAA”), BOC International (Singapore) Pte Ltd is in any event exempted (i) by Regulation 34 of the FAR from the requirement to have a reasonable basis for making any recommendation as mandated under Section 27 of the FAA, and (ii) by Regulation 35 of the FAR from the requirements in Section 36 of the FAA mandating disclosure of any interests in securities mentioned in this report, or in their acquisition or disposal, that it or its associated or connected persons may have. The recipient of the analysis or report should contact BOCI in Singapore if they have any queries as to the report/analysis. Copyright 2008 BOCI Research Limited, BOC International Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries and affiliates. All rights reserved.
  Toll free numbers to Hong Kong: China North: 10800 8521065 China South: 10800 1521065 Singapore: 800 852 3392
        BOCI Securities Limited 20/F, Bank of China Tower 1 Garden Road Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2867 6333 Fax: (852) 2147 9513
  BOC International (UK) Limited 90 Cannon Street London EC4N 6HA United Kingdom Tel: (4420) 7022 8888 Fax: (4420) 7022 8877
  BOC International (USA) Inc. Room 202, 1270 Avenue of the Americas New York, NY, 10020, USA Tel: (1) 212 259 0888 Fax: (1) 212 259 0889
  BOC International (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. Reg. No. 199303046Z 4 Battery Road 4/F Bank of China Building Singapore 049908 Tel: (65) 6412 8856 / 6412 8630 Fax: (65) 6534 3996 / 6532 3371
  BOC International (China) Limited 39/F Bank of China Tower 200 Yincheng Zhong Road Shanghai Pudong District 200121 China Tel: (8621) 6860 4866 Fax: (8621) 5888 3554
 
BOC International Holdings Limited Beijing Representative Office 15/F, Tower 2, Yingtai Business Center No.28, Finance Street, Xicheng District, Beijing 100032, China Tel: (8610) 6622 9000 Fax: (8610) 6657 8950
 

The Raw and the Cooked

发布机构:中银国际
报告类型:外行报告 发布日期:2008/12/2
报告评级:
撰写作者:
报告下载:306 文件类型:PDF文档
Free Down Report 左键点击或右键另存为下载 更多下载地址...

内容简介

迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
 
 
2 December 2008  (Tuesday)
DAILY SPOTLIGHT
Full Edition 
  Index Performance* (%) 5D 1M YTD
The Raw and the Cooked (49) (54) (50) (55) (56) (46) (67)
HSI HSCEI HSCCI MSCI HK MSCI China MSCI Asia FTSE-Xinhua A50
13 16 12 12 10 4 0
1 12 3 (1) 7 (3) 10
The Cooked MoT & MoR Investment Budgets................................................2   Patrick LI  Sector  Update  —  In  comparing  the  investment  budgets  of  the  Ministry  of  Transport  (MoT)  and  the  Ministry  of  Railway  (MoR),  we  are  more  cautious  about those of the former in the next few years and do not expect significant  growth. We expect actual investments in railway infrastructure during 2006‐10  to reach Rmb1.88trn, or 94% of the adjusted planned amount. As for the MoR,  its  traditional  financing  sources  are  likely  to  meet  its  needs  for  2009,  but,  in  2010,  continual  large‐scale  issuances  of  railway  construction  bonds  will  necessitate  the  need  for  railway  fare  and  tariff  adjustments  to  boost  profitability.   
* BOCI indices are available on Reuters page BOCI 
Leaders (%)
5D 1M YTD
TCL Multimedia (1070.HK) Haier CCT (1169.HK) Beijing Capital Land (2868.HK) Sino-Ocean Land (3377.HK) Agile Property (2007.HK)   Laggards (%)
68 53 49 46 44
91 50 43 49 32
(68) (51) (79) (69) (77)
Sichuan Meifeng – BUY ...........................................................4 (000731.SZ/Rmb6.34; TP: Rmb8.16 )  NI Xiaoman  Rating  Change  —  We  raise  our  target  price  for  Meifeng  from  Rmb5.50  to  Rmb8.16,  based  on  2009E  P/E  of  12x  and  EPS  of  Rmb0.68.  We  upgrade  our  rating for the stock from HOLD to BUY.   
5D 1M YTD
Playmates Holdings (0635.HK) Natural Beauty (0157.HK) ASMC (3355.HK) Xinyu Hengdeli (3389.HK) Kingway Brewery (0124.HK)   US ADR Closings Bank of East Asia (0023.HK) Cathay Pacific (0293.HK) Chalco (2600.HK) Cheung Kong (0001.HK) China Life (2628.HK) China Mobile (0941.HK) China Southern (1055.HK) China Telecom (0728.HK) China Unicom (0762.HK) CLP Holdings (0002.HK) CNOOC Ltd (0883.HK) Guangshen Railway (0525.HK) Henderson Land (0012.HK) HK & China Gas (0003.HK) HK Electric (0006.HK) HSBC (0005.HK) Huaneng Power (0902.HK) Hutchison (0013.HK) Johnson Electric (0179.HK) Lenovo (0992.HK) PCCW (0008.HK) PetroChina (0857.HK) SHK Properties (0016.HK) Sinopec (0386.HK) SMIC (0981.HK) Swire Pacific (0019.HK) Techtronic (0669.HK) Tsingtao Brewery (0168.HK) Yanzhou Coal (1171.HK)
(30) (18) (13) (11) (7)
(33) 10 (27) (35) 57
(90) (52) (76) (79) (68)
Next Media – BUY ......................................................................6 (0282.HK/HK$0.95; TP: HK$1.25 )  Allan NG  Target Price Change — Based on 6.3x of 12‐month forward P/E (two standard  deviations below the 17.8x average that the stock has commanded since 2005),  we lower our target price for Next Media to HK$1.25 from HK$3.90. 
HK$ (%) 15.11 7.83 3.30 66.04 19.42 67.78 0.88 2.72 8.27 52.86 5.84 2.56 25.04 12.56 41.78 77.87 4.38 36.51 1.24 1.77 3.49 6.00 59.84 4.61 0.15 50.54 2.42 15.35 0.76 (8) (1) (11) (8) (5) (7) (6) (9) (9) (4) (10) (8) (6) (4) (3) (8) (8) (4) (5) (6) (1) (9) (4) (8) (5) (4) 3 (6) (82)
The Raw Residential market takes new hit from mortgage rate rise .... 10   Manfred HO, CFA  Snippet  —  HSBC  Holdings,  the  largest  mortgage  lender  in  Hong  Kong,  yesterday raised its mortgage rate by 50‐75bp to P‐1‐1.5%, or 3.5‐4%. The rate  rise  is  the  biggest  in  10  years  as  concerns  over  higher  risk  of  lending  linger  amid the deepening credit crisis.   
New measures to stimulate domestic consumption ................ 10   YE Bingnan  Snippet — The Ministry of Finance (MoF) and other related government bodies  have  jointly  announced  an  extension  of  the  household  appliance  subsidy  programme to the next four years.   
MIIT grants BYD licence to launch F3DM ................................. 11 (1211.HK/HK$11.64, BUY)  Frank HE  Snippet  —  The  Ministry  of  Industry  and  Information  Technology  (MIIT)  has  issued BYD Co a licence to manufacture and sell its plug‐in hybrid F3DM car  model in China.   
Jidong Cement to set up JV in Shanxi Province ....................... 11 (000401.SZ/Rmb10.79, BUY)  Grace TANG  Snippet — Jidong Cement has announced plans to set up a joint venture, to be  called Jidong Jiaocheng Cement Co, with Shanxi Fengshan Cement Co Ltd. 
BOCI research is available electronically on Bloomberg (BOCR <go>), firstcall.com, multex.com and at www.bociresearch.com.  Any views expressed in this report reflect the current personal views of the analyst and do not necessarily represent the views of BOC International or any of its affiliates. 
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
 
 
INDUSTRIALS — C & I MoT & MoR Investment Budgets      
Sector Update
Patrick LI pan.li@bocigroup.com (8610) 6622 9073
More cautious about MoT investments in next few years.  In  comparing  the  investment  budgets  of  the  Ministry  of  Transport  (MoT) and the Ministry of Railway (MoR), we are more cautious about  those of the former in the next few years and do not expect significant  growth. We expect actual investments in railway infrastructure during  2006‐10 to reach Rmb1.88trn, or 94% of the adjusted planned amount.  Given the restrictions in the approval, survey, design and execution of  new construction projects, we believe actual investments may come in  less  than  planned.  Nevertheless,  the  MoR’s  incremental  investments  for 2006‐10 will likely still exceed Rmb600bn, compared with original  budget  of  Rmb1.25trn  under  the  11th  Five‐year  Plan.  Those  set  to  benefit most are China Railway Group Ltd (CRGL, 0390.HK/HK$5.11;  601390.SS/Rmb5.84, BUY) China Railway Construction Corp (CRCC,  1186.HK/HK$10.22;  601186.SS/Rmb10.00,  BUY)  and  China  Railway  Erju  (000528.SS/Rmb8.50,  NR).  A full report in English is now available.  Urgent to drive growth through investments. As net exports  may decline and domestic consumption growth is likely to slow next  year,  it  has  become  an  urgent  task  to  drive  industry  recovery  and  consumption growth through investments.   MoT to try to keep FAI at Rmb1trn in next two years. The  MoT  has  said  it  will  try  to  keep  fixed  asset  investments  (FAI)  in  transport  at  Rmb1trn  in  each  of  the  next  two  years.  However,  we  believe  it  will  be  hard  pressed  to  deliver,  as:  i)  road,  water  and  air  transport  are  relatively  well  developed;  ii)  the  MoT’s  proportion  of  self‐raised  funds  has  been  healthy  in  recent  years,  showing  high  degree of market‐oriented financing; iii) still, traditional market‐based  financing  is  not  effective  under  the  current  macro‐economic  outlook  and  securing  new  funds  through  the  administrative  coordination  of  various departments is no easy feat.  MoR to invest Rmb600bn on infrastructure in 2009. The  MoR  has  said  it  plans  to  invest  Rmb600bn  in  infrastructure  and  Rmb100bn in locomotives in 2009 and also plans to fork out Rmb3.5trn  during 2009‐11. Railway construction has long been a lag and demand  is huge. In the past, the MoR’s funds were mainly “national” and, in  such unusual cases, it can issue railway construction bonds on a large  scale. So, the funds for 2009 are largely secured. It is also expected that  funds will be raised through further issuances of railway construction  bonds  (on  the  precondition  that  MoR  profitability  can  be  secured  through raising freight rate and fares), or directly through state‐issued  special construction bonds. We have raised our 2009‐10 estimates for  railway  infrastructure  investments.  However,  they  remain  much  lower  than  the  figures  that  the  government  announced,  which  highlights our concerns over financing and construction bottlenecks.  2 December 2008 (Tuesday)  The Raw and the Cooked  2 
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
 
Major beneficiaries of government investments.  We  believe the major beneficiaries of the planned government investments  will be CRGL, CRCC and China Railway Erju.  This is an extract from an updated English translation of Chinese report, which we issued yesterday. The Chinese report was issued on 19 November 2008 as an update on the China construction and infrastructure sub-sector.
2 December 2008 (Tuesday) 
The Raw and the Cooked 

THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
 
Share Price vs. Index Rmb 22 18 14 10 6 01/12/07 01/01/08 01/02/08 01/03/08 01/04/08 01/05/08 01/06/08 01/07/08 01/08/08 01/09/08 01/10/08 01/11/08 01/12/08 2 Turnover (Rmb m) 900 720 540 360 180 0
CHEMICALS — Fertilisers Sichuan Meifeng (000731.SZ/Rmb6.34 — BUY )     
Rating Change Target Price: Rmb8.16 NI Xiaoman xiaoman.ni@bocigroup.com (8621) 6860 4866 ext. 8319
Sichuan Meifeng
FTSE-Xinhua A50
Sources: Bloomberg, BOCI Research 
  Share Price Performance Absolute (%) Relative to FTSEXinhua A50 (%) 1M 45 36 3M 3 27 6M (42) 8
Valuation.  We  visited  Sichuan  Meifeng’s  Deyang  plant  in  Sichuan  Province last Thursday. In view of the relatively assured demand for  the urea industry and the resumption of urea production volume, we  project that Meifeng’s earnings will turn around and grow about 30%  YoY  in  2009  after  a  most  difficult  2008.  We  raise  our  target  price  for  Meifeng from Rmb5.50 to Rmb8.16, based on 2009E P/E of 12x and EPS  of Rmb0.68. We upgrade our rating for the stock from HOLD to BUY.  Current year most difficult period.  The  current  year  has  the  been  most  difficult  period  in  Meifeng  production  history.  Given  the  impact  of  the  earthquake  in  May  and  snow  disaster  in  January,  the  company’s urea production volume will come in down about 10% YoY  at  0.75m‐0.8m  tonnes  in  2008.  The  company  believes  that  its  production volume in Sichuan Province will return to the normal level  of around 0.85m tonnes in 2009.  Relative stability in store for urea industry in 2009.  Meifeng’s  urea  ex‐factory  price  now  stands  at  Rmb1,725/tonne  and  management  has  said  it  believes  the  level  next  year  be  above  Rmb1,600/tonne due to higher costs of raw materials, such as coal and  natural gas. Although the domestic urea industry faces an oversupply  situation,  the  total  utilisation  rate  of  the  industry  currently  stands  at  only 70‐80% given the squeeze from the high raw‐material costs. The  company  has  estimated  that  fluctuation  in  the  price  of  urea  in  2009  will  be  less  than  that  in  2008  due  to  the  impact  of  new  export  tariff  policy. Overall, the company believes that the domestic urea industry  will  strike  a  relatively  stable  demand‐supply  balance  allowing  the  price to be steady.   Natural gas supply situation.  Meifeng’s  urea  plant  utilisation  rate  now  stands  at  around  80%  and  its  average  natural  gas  price  at  Rmb1.09/sqm, while that for its use in fertiliser is about Rmb0.89/sqm.  Amid the shortage in supply, the company’s natural gas cost for 2008,  relative to 2007, has risen about Rmb8.4m and its unit urea production  cost  has  increased  about  Rmb100  to  Rmb1,300‐1,400/tonne.  The  company is unsure if the price of natural gas will be rise in 2009, but  has estimated that, if it goes up, the rate of increase next year will not  be  steep,  given  the  high  level  in  2008.  In  addition,  Meifeng  has  estimated that the positive impacts of the Puguang and Fasten Sichuan  gas  fields,  explorations  of  which  will  continue  until  2010,  is  still  unclear.    
Sources: Bloomberg, BOCI Research 
  Key Data Total issued shares (m) 499.84 Free float (%) 76.8 Free float mkt. cap. (Rmb m) 2,427 3M avg. daily turnover (Rmb m) 26 Net debt/equity (%) 20 Major shareholder (%) Chengdu Huachuan Petro Chemical Group 14.4 Sources: Company data, Bloomberg, BOCI Research 
  Date of last note: 22 October 2008 
2 December 2008 (Tuesday) 
The Raw and the Cooked 

THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
 
Information on some subsidiaries.  Apart from its 1m tonnes  per annum (tpa) urea capacity in Sichuan, Meifeng has acquired some  assets  in  recent  years.  These  include  Guizhou  Fertiliser  (51%  stake  with 300,000tpa urea capacity), Lanzhou Fertiliser (55.78% stake with  100,000tpa  urea  capacity)  and  Liujiaxia  Chemical  (45%  stake  with  300,000tpa urea capacity). Due to technological disadvantage and the  burden  of  having  nearly  4,000  employees,  urea  production  cost  of  Guizhou Fertiliser is more than Rmb2,000/tonne now and it has had to  stop output this year to upgrade its technology before the year is out.  Meifeng estimates that Guizhou Fetiliser will post a loss for 2008 and,  if successful in completing its technological upgrade, and book a profit  for 2009. As for Lanzhou Fertiliser, its unit urea production cost now  stands at around Rmb1,600‐1,700/tonne and Meifeng estimates that it  will book a profit of Rmb1m in 2008. We believe Liujiaxia Chemical is  Meifeng’s best asset among all subsidiaries using natural gas as a raw  material. Meifeng projects that Liujiaxia it will register a profit of more  than  Rmb80m  this  year  and  bring  investment  income  of  more  than  Rmb40m. The company believes that if it can own more than 50% of  Liujiaxia,  its  earnings  contribution  will  amount  to  more  than  Rmb100m  a  year,  given  the  management  advantage  of  the  major  shareholder.  Slowdown in capacity expansion of late. As some equipment  costs  will  decline  in  the  next  few  years,  Meifeng  plans  to  delay  the  construction  of  some  new  projects,  including  a  new  300,000tpa  urea  project at Mianyang City. We do not expect this project to commence  operations until 2011.    Earnings for 2009E to turn around and rise 30% YoY. If  there are no accidents next year, we expect the company’s urea sales  volume  will  to  return  to  0.9m  tonnes,  the  level  in  2007.  We  estimate  Meifeng’s  average  selling  price  for  urea  next  year  to  be  around  Rmb1,750/tonne and its gross margin to come in at 23%. As such, we  project  that  the  company’s  2009  earnings  will  grow  30%  YoY  to  Rmb339m.  
Investment Summary Year ended 31 Dec Revenue (Rmb m) Change (%) Net profit (Rmb m) Fully diluted EPS (Rmb) Change (%) P/E (x) CFPS (Rmb) P/CF (x) EV/EBITDA (x) DPS (Rmb) Yield (%) 2006 1,364 21 249 0.498 9 12.7 1.541 4.1 6.5 0.50 7.9 2007 2,053 51 315 0.630 27 10.0 1.776 3.6 5.9 0.52 8.2 2008E 3,317 62 262 0.524 (17) 12.0 1.631 3.9 4.0 0.40 6.3 2009E 4,224 27 339 0.678 30 9.3 2.120 3.0 3.5 0.50 7.9 2010E 5,069 20 451 0.901 33 7.0 3.251 1.9 3.2 0.57 3.2
Sources: Company data, BOCI Research estimates 
2 December 2008 (Tuesday) 
The Raw and the Cooked 

THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
MEDIA — Printing and Publishing                         Allan Ng (852) 2905 2108 allan.ng@bocigroup.com
Target Price Change
2 December 2008
Next Media Interim results below forecast We have cut our profit forecasts and target price for Next Media following the disappointing interim results, which was mainly due to a weak performance of the Taiwan Apple Daily.
BUY 0282.HK – HK$0.95 Target Price: HK$1.25 ( 3.90)
Key Points Supporting Rating The  stock  trades  at  less  than  5x  12‐month  forward  P/E,  suggesting limited downside risk.   With net cash of HK$271m (HK$0.112 per share), we believe  the 9.5% yield is sustainable.  Lower newsprint prices will alleviate pressure on the bottom  line. 
Key Risks to Rating The Taiwan advertising market has been much weaker than  expected  in  the  last  few  months  as  the  new  administration  struggles with the economy.  The  global  economic  slowdown  is also taking its  toll  on  the  Hong Kong advertising market. 
Share Price vs Index 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Dec-07
90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Relative to HSI
Valuation Our  target  P/E  of 6.3x  is  two‐standard deviations  below  the  17.8x average since 2005.  Despite  our  lower  profit  forecasts,  the  company  is  likely  to  achieve  return  on  equity  (ROE)  of  some  24%  this  year  compared with 30% in 2007.    Investment Summary Year ended 31 Mar Revenue (HK$ m) Change (%) Net profit (HK$ m) Fully diluted EPS (HK$) Change (%) Previous EPS (HK$) Change (%) I/B/E/S EPS (HK$) P/E (x) CFPS (HK$) P/CF (x) EV/EBITDA (x) DPS (HK$) Yield (%) 2007 3,241 (2) 340 0.14 (29.2) 6.7 0.27 12.5 3.4 0.15 15.9 2008 3,479 7 516 0.21 51.7 4.4 0.27 6.0 2.5 0.24 25.3 2009E 3,614 4 436 0.18 (15.6) 0.234 (23) 0.22 5.3 0.19 7.6 2.6 0.09 9.5 2010E 3,654 1 488 0.20 11.9 0.275 (26) 0.24 4.7 0.21 6.5 1.9 0.10 10.5 2011E 3,775 3 550 0.23 12.8 0.306 (26) 0.24 4.2 0.23 5.5 1.4 0.11 11.6
Turnover(HK$ m)(RHS)
Next Media
Sources: Bloomberg, BOCI Research 
Share Price Performance Absolute (%) Relative to HSMLCI (%) YTD 1M 3M 12M (32.6) (21.0) (39.4) (32.6) (67.1) (13.6) (60.4) (67.1)
Sources: Bloomberg, BOCI Research
Key Data Total issued shares (m) Free float (%) Free float mkt. cap. (HK$ m) 3M avg. daily turnover (HK$ m) Net debt/equity (%) Major shareholders (%) Jimmy Lai 2,413 26 598 1 Net cash 74
Sources: Company data, Bloomberg, BOCI Research estimates 
Sources: Company data, BOCI Research estimates
BOCI research is available electronically on Bloomberg (BOCR <go>), firstcall.com, multex.com and at www.bociresearch.com. NB: BUY = ≥+10% compared with the relevant benchmark index over a 6-month period; SELL= ≤-10% compared with the relevant benchmark index over a 6-month period; HOLD = ≤+10% and ≥-10% compared with the relevant benchmark index over a 6-month period; Not Rated (NR)
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
Forecasts trimmed, target price cut  Following  Next  Media’s  disappointing  interim  results,  we  trim  our  profit forecasts by 23% to HK$436m (EPS: HK$x0.181) for its fiscal year  to 31 March 2009 and by 26% to HK$488m (EPS: HK$x0.202) for FY10.  Based  on  6.3x  of  12‐month  forward  P/E  (two  standard  deviations  below the 17.8x average that the stock has commanded since 2005), we  lower our target price for Next Media to HK$1.25 from HK$3.90. We  believe the downside risk of the stock is quite limited from this level  and reaffirm our BUY rating. 
Interim profit down 3% YoY  Next Media’s net income for the first half of its fiscal year to 31 March  2009  declined  3.3%  YoY  to  HK$208m  (EPS:  HK$0.086),  about  14.4%  below our estimate and, we believe, at the low end of market forecasts.  The main discrepancy between our forecasts and the actual results was  the weaker revenue of Taiwan Apple Daily, while costs were in line.  
No interim dividend  The  company  has  decided  not  to  pay  an  interim  dividend,  which  points to a cautious outlook for the rest of the year. However, with net  cash of HK$271m as at end‐September, we believe the company will  be  able  to  keep  final  dividend  at  last  year’s  level  of  HK$0.09.  This  represents  a  payout  ratio  of  about  50%,  compared  with  more  than  100%  in  the  last  three  years.  Our  dividend  forecast  implies  a  very  attractive 9.5% yield.  
Hong Kong ad revenue growth strong  Revenue for 1HFY09 grew 5.1% YoY to nearly HK$1.8bn, about 3.1%  below our estimate. The Hong Kong businesses performed well, with  the Apple Daily showing growth of 9% YoY in advertising revenue to  HK$347m, thanks to the Beijing Olympics in August. The magazines  division  also  did  better  than  expected  with  revenue  growth  of  9.4%  YoY to HK$471m.  Results Analysis (HK$ m) Turnover Total revenue Cash costs EBITDA Depreciation Operating profit Pretax profit Tax Net profit FD recurrent EPS (HK$) DPS (HK$) Key ratios (%) Operating margin EBITDA margin Net margin Excluding exceptional items  Sources: Company data, BOCI estimate 
1HFY08 1,708 1,734 (1,401) 333 (67) 266 257 (42) 215 0.089 0.050
1HFY09 1,795 1,836 (1,524) 312 (68) 244 238 (30) 208 0.086 0.000
YoY% 5.1 5.8 8.7 (6.4) 1.3 (8.3) (7.5) (29.1) (3.3) (3.3) (100.0)
HoH% 1.4 3.3 11.3 (23.5) (0.6) (28.1) (33.2) (46.8) (30.7) (30.7) (100.0)
15.3 19.2 12.4
13.3 17.0 11.3
2 December 2008
Next Media THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
2
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
Taiwan Apple Daily disappoints  The Taiwan Next Magazine also performed well with revenue growth of  11.7% YoY to HK$117m, again better than our estimate. However, the  Taiwan  Apple  Daily  disappointed,  with  revenue  up  just  1.8%  YoY  to  HK$619m.  
Cost pressure persisted, but likely to ease  Operating  expenses  rose  8.4%  YoY  to  HK$1.59bn,  in  line  with  our  expectation,  mainly  on  the  back  of  an  11%  YoY  climb  in  production  costs.  The  main  culprit  was  rising  newsprint  prices,  which  went  up  some  17%  YoY  in  1HFY09,  in  line  with  our  forecast.  We  believe  newsprint  prices  will  start  declining,  following  the  Olympics  in  August  and  the  US  general  elections  in  November,  traditionally  two  main  events  that  push  them  up  temporarily.  For  FY09,  we  expect  a  10% average increase in newsprint prices and then a 5% fall in FY10. A  faster decline will help Next Media’s bottom line, as newsprint makes  up more than a quarter of the company’s operating expenses.   US Newsprint Prices US$/tonne 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 06/01 10/01 02/02 06/02 10/02 02/03 06/03 10/03 02/04 06/04 10/04 02/05 06/05 10/05 02/06 06/06 10/06 02/07 06/07 10/07 02/08 06/08 10/08 400
Source: Bloomberg 
 
Taiwan acquisition still possible  Although  Next  Media  recently  failed  to  acquire  any  of  the  print  or  electronic  media  assets  in  Taiwan’s  China  Times  Group,  we  suspect  there are still opportunities. As the economy decelerates further, many  of  Taiwan’s  loss‐making  media  will  find  it  increasingly  difficult  to  survive. With net equity of HK$3.1bn and net cash of HK$271m, Next  Media can afford a modest acquisition without stretching its balance  sheet  too  far.  An  acquisition  of  the  size  of  the  China  Times  deal  (reportedly valued at US$620m or HK$4.8bn), however, may have to  be made jointly with major shareholder Jimmy Lai.       
2 December 2008
Next Media THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
3
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
Income Statement (HK$ m) Year ended 31 Mar Revenue Cost of sales Operating expenses Operating profit (EBIT) Depreciation & amortisation EBITDA Net interest income/(expense) Other gains/(losses) Pre-tax Profit Taxes on profit Minority interests Net profit Core net profit EPS (HK$) Core EPS (HK$) DPS (HK$) Revenue Growth (%) EBIT Growth (%) EBITDA Growth (%) EPS Growth (%) Core EPS Growth (%) 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 3,241 3,479 3,614 3,654 3,775 0 0 0 0 0 (2,864) (2,906) (3,159) (3,140) (3,192) 377 573 455 514 583 157 135 135 135 130 534 708 590 649 713 8 8 13 19 22 24 33 45 47 50 409 614 513 581 655 (71) (98) (77) (93) (105) 2 0 0 0 0 340 516 436 488 550 340 516 436 488 550 0.14 0.21 0.18 0.20 0.23 0.14 0.21 0.18 0.20 0.23 0.15 0.24 0.09 0.10 0.11 (2) 7 4 1 3 (28) 52 (21) 13 13 (20) 33 (17) 10 10 (52) 52 (16) 12 13 (56) 52 (16) 12 13
Balance Sheet (HK$ m) Year ended 31 Mar Cash & cash equivalents Receivables Inventories Other current assets Total current assets Fixed assets Intangible assets Other long term assets Total long-term assets Total Assets Creditors Short-term debt Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term borrowings Other long tem liabilities Share capital Reserves Shareholder's equity Minority interest Total liabilities & equity Book value per share (HK$) Tangible Asset per share(HK$) Net debt(cash)per share 2007 868 576 203 3 1,649 1,572 1,301 80 2,952 4,601 486 128 22 635 285 323 2,412 945 3,357 0 4,601 1.39 0.85 (0.19) 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 877 1,046 1,240 1,453 581 623 620 646 189 211 206 217 3 3 3 3 1,650 1,883 2,070 2,319 1,577 1,532 1,507 1,490 1,301 1,301 1,301 1,301 70 72 72 72 2,948 2,905 2,880 2,863 4,598 4,788 4,949 5,182 463 511 502 526 78 78 78 78 27 26 28 28 568 615 607 632 288 211 134 58 333 333 333 333 2,412 2,412 2,412 2,412 998 1,216 1,463 1,747 3,409 3,628 3,874 4,159 0 1 1 1 4,598 4,788 4,949 5,182 1.41 1.50 1.61 1.72 0.87 0.96 1.07 1.18 (0.21) (0.31) (0.43) (0.55)
Sources: Company data,BOCI Research estimates 
  Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m) Year ended 31 Mar Pre-tax profit Net interest expenses Change in working capital Tax paid Other operating cash flows Cash flow from operations Net purchase of fixed assets Decrease/(increase) in invest. Other investing cash flows Cash flow from investing Net increase in equity Net increase in debt Dividends paid Other financing cash flows Cash flow from financing Change in cash Cash at beginning of year Free cash flow to firm Free cash flow to equity 2007 409 (8) 54 0 157 612 (114) 2 (5) (118) 0 155 (397) 0 (242) 253 676 494 650 2008 614 (8) 34 0 135 775 (70) 1 (2) (71) 0 (62) (543) 0 (605) 99 868 704 642 2009E 513 (13) (18) 0 135 617 (90) 0 0 (90) 0 (77) (217) 0 (294) 233 877 527 450 2010E 581 (19) 0 0 135 696 (110) 0 0 (110) 0 (77) (241) 0 (318) 268 1,046 586 510 2011E 655 (22) (11) 0 130 751 (113) 0 0 (113) 0 (77) (265) 0 (342) 296 1,240 638 561
Sources: Company data,BOCI Research estimates 
  Key Ratios Analysis (%) Year ended 31 Mar 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E Profitability EBITDA Margin (%) 16.5 20.4 16.3 17.8 18.9 EBIT Margin (%) 11.6 16.5 12.6 14.1 15.4 Pre-tax margin (%) 12.6 17.6 14.2 15.9 17.3 Net profit margin (%) 10.5 14.8 12.1 13.3 14.6 Liquidity Current ratio (x) 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.7 Net debt to equity (%) Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Quick ratio (x) 2.3 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.3 Valuation P/E (x) 6.7 4.4 5.3 4.7 4.2 Core P/E (x) 6.7 4.4 5.3 4.7 4.2 Core P/E @ target price 8.9 5.8 6.9 6.2 5.5 P/B (x) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 P/CF (x) 12.5 6.0 7.6 6.5 5.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 3.4 2.5 2.6 1.9 1.4 Activity Ratios Inventory days 11.4 9.9 10.7 10.3 10.5 Accounts receivables days 32.4 30.5 31.5 31.0 31.2 Accounts paybles days 27.4 24.3 25.8 25.1 25.4 Returns Dividend payout ratio (%) 107.3 112.2 49.8 49.5 48.3 Return on equity (%) 20.3 30.3 24.0 25.2 26.4 20.9 16.2 17.5 18.9 Return on assets (%) 13.5 Return on capital employed (%) 20.0 30.3 23.2 25.2 27.1 Sources: Company data,BOCI Research estimates  
Sources: Company data,BOCI Research estimates  
 
 
2 December 2008
Next Media THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
4
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
 
 
HONG KONG & CHINA — Raw Snippets Residential market takes new hit from mortgage rate rise   Manfred HO, CFA 
HSBC  Holdings  (0005.HK/HK$84.40,  SELL),  the  largest  mortgage  lender in Hong Kong, yesterday raised its mortgage rate by 50‐75 basis  points to P‐1‐1.5%, or 3.5‐4%. The rate rise is the biggest in 10 years as  concerns over higher risk of lending linger amid the deepening credit  crisis. If the other banks follow suit, the affordability ratio will increase  from the current 33% to 34‐36%, the 2Q07 level. According to a report  in  the  Hong Kong Economic Journal,  other  market  participants  believe  the mortgage rate will rise further next year to P‐0.5%. We believe the  rising  mortgage  rate  will  cast  a  further  pall  on  the  outlook  of  the  residential property outlook. The move is in line with our expectation  of higher mortgage rates due to the tighter credit of banks, as stated in  our 24 November 2008 sector report, entitled “Residential Outlook ‐‐  Correction until end‐2009”. We reaffirm our view that property prices  will  drop  a  further  20%  for  mass  residential  properties  and  25%  for  high‐end ones byt the end of 2009. We reiterate our Underweight call  on the Hong Kong developers sector. Among listed companies in the  sector,  we  believe  MTR  Corp  (0066.HK/HK$17.30,  BUY)  is  more  defensive due to its stronger earnings and the improving outlook for  its  non‐property  operations.  In  our  view,  Sino  Land  (0083.HK/  HK$6.14,  SELL)  and  New  World  Development  (0017.HK/HK$6.39,  SELL) are likely to see higher downsides.   
New measures to stimulate domestic consumption   YE Bingnan 
The  Ministry  of  Finance  (MoF) and  other  related  government  bodies  have  jointly  announced  an  extension  of  the  household  appliance  subsidy programme to the next four years. Under the programme, the  MoF  will  provide  farmers  with  a  subsidy  of  13%  when  they  buy  designated  appliances,  such  as  colour  television  sets,  refrigerators,  washing  machines  and  mobile  phones.  Pilot  programmes  were  launched in the provinces of Shandong, Henan, Sichuan and Qingdao  in  December 2007 and  will  be  expanded  nationwide effective from  1  February  2009.  According  to  official  forecasts,  the  programme  will  result in total retail sales of Rmb920bn over the next four years; or an  annual  average  of  Rmb230bn.  The  total  retail  sales  stood  at  Rmb8,921bn  in  2007.  This  policy  may  have  some  impact  one  manufacturers  of  related  products.  However,  there  will  likely  be  no  significant impact on the macroeconomics performance since its effect  on growth of retail sales will be limited. However, it signals that the  government has begun to consider policies to stimulate the domestic  consumption.  We  believe  the  MoF  will  probably  raise  further  the  threshold  for  individual  income  tax.  The  government  will  also  increase  expenditure  on  education,  health,  pension  and  employment  projects to boost domestic consumption.  10
2 December 2008 (Tuesday) 
The Raw and the Cooked 
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
 
 
MIIT issues BYD licence to launch F3DM   Frank HE 
The  Ministry  of  Industry  and  Information  Technology  (MIIT)  has  issued  BYD  Co  (1211.HK/HK$11.64,  BUY)  a  licence  to  manufacture  and  sell  its  plug‐in  hybrid  F3DM  model  in  China.  The  licence  meets  management’s  target  to  launch  the  product  at  the  end  of  2008  and  underpins BYD’s growing strategy through its early move into China’s  plug‐in  hybrid  car  industry.  More  importantly,  we  believe  the  government’s approval will partly ease concerns of investors over the  reliability of F3DM. We expect shipments of F3DM to reach 4,000 units  in  2009  and  48,000  in  2010  and  see  upside  potential  to  our  current  estimate  amid  the  rising  support  from  government.  BYD  intends  to  start selling the F3DM from the middle of this month. The granting of  the licence shows that the Chinese Government is intensifying efforts  to  promote  new‐energy  cars.  A  Ministry  of  Finance  official  recently  said that the government was going to subsidise users of new‐energy  cars. The subsidy awarded will depend on the energy‐savings amount  any  one  vehicle  achieves,  which  is  favourable  to  the  F3DM  as  it  has  superior  such  features  than  most  other  hybrid  cars.  Chongqing  has  become  the  first  city  in  China  to  enjoy  the  subsidy  and  the  total  amount nationwide is expected to reach Rmb20bn in 2012. We believe  BYD is well positioned to ride this trend and reaffirm our BUY rating  on it.    
Jidong Cement to set up JV in Shanxi Province   Grace TANG 
Jidong  Cement  (000401.SZ/Rmb10.79,  BUY)  has  announced  plans  to  set up a joint venture, to be called Jidong Jiaocheng Cement Co, with  Shanxi Fengshan Cement Co Ltd. Plans for JV call for the construction  of a 1,800 tonnes/day production line under Phase I and a 4,500t/d line  under Phase II with waste heat power generation. The total investment  in  Jiaocheng,  to  be  located  about  67km  from  Taiyuan  in  Shanxi  Province, will amount to Rmb1bn. Jidong’s equity to net‐debt ratio is  just  26%,  making  it  well  able  to  support  the  investment.  The  announcement is in line with the company’s Shanxi market strategy.  However,  the  investment  cost  of  Rmb512/tonne  is  higher  than  the  industry average. We regard the announcement as neutral to Jidong’s  share‐price performance going forward.        
2 December 2008 (Tuesday) 
The Raw and the Cooked 
11
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
 
DISCLOSURE   The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analysts. Each analyst declares  that neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of nor has any financial interests in relation to the  listed  corporation  reviewed  by  the  analyst.  None  of  the  listed  corporations  reviewed  or  any  third  party  has  provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in connection with this report to any of the  analysts,  BOCI  Research  Limited  and  BOCI  Group.  Member  companies  of  BOCI  Group  confirm  that  they,  whether individually or as a group (i) do not own 1% or more financial interests in any of the listed corporations  reviewed; or (ii) do not have any individual employed by or associated with any member companies of BOCI  Group  serving  as  an  officer  of  any  of  the  listed  corporation  reviewed.  Certain  member  companies  of  BOCI  Group are involved in making a market in the securities of HSBC Holdings and MTR Corp. Certain member  companies  of  BOCI  Group  has/have  had  investment  banking  relationships  with  China  Railway  Group  Ltd  within the preceding 12 months.  This disclosure statement is made pursuant to paragraph 16 of the “Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or  Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission” and is updated as of 28 November 2008. Waiver has  been  obtained  by  BOC  International  Holdings  Limited  from  the  Securities  and  Futures  Commission  of  Hong  Kong to disclose any interest the Bank of China Group may have in this research report.       
2 December 2008 (Tuesday) 
The Raw and the Cooked 
12
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
迅嘉研究报告 - http://www.123678.net
 
      20/F, Bank of China Tower 1 Garden Road Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2867 6333 Fax: (852) 2147 9513
BOCI’s daily product is christened “The Raw and the Cooked” with inspiration from the legendary Professor Claude Lévi-Strauss, whose groundbreaking research into “Mythology” 40 years ago showed that even apparently trivial and unintelligible myths form a vast and intricate system of parallels and oppositions — a system whose complexity far transcends that of any one particular myth. In that sense, Myths are no different from Stock Markets, in which investors and analysts claim to see logics but nonetheless become mesmerised by irrational exuberance from time to time. After all, both myths and stock markets are but manifestations of the human mind. For the practical purposes of humble stockbroking research, “The Raw and the Cooked” offers both “raw materials” (eg, visit notes, key statistics) to disillusioned clients who no longer have faith in stockbrokers' recommendations and forecasts as well as “delicious” end-product “cuisines” for generalists who cannot afford to cover a full spectrum of stocks in detail. DISCLAIMER This report was originally prepared and issued by BOCI Research Limited for distribution to their professional, accredited and institutional investor customers. It is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject BOCI Research Limited, BOC International Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “BOCI Group”) to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdictions. None of the material, nor its contents, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of BOCI Group. All trademarks, service marks and logos used in this report are trademarks or service marks or registered trademarks or service marks of BOCI Group. The information, tools and material presented in this report are provided to you for information purposes only and shall not be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. BOCI Group may not have taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this report are suitable for any particular investor. The contents of this report do not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a customer of BOCI Group by virtue of receiving this report. Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by BOCI Group to be reliable, but BOCI Group makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness and BOCI Group accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report unless such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. BOCI Group may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. The reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. For the avoidance of doubt, views expressed in this report do not necessarily represent those of BOCI Group. This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, various websites. To the extent that this report refers to material outside BOCI Group’s own website, BOCI Group has not reviewed the linked sites and takes no responsibility for the content contained therein. Such address or hyperlink (including addresses or hyperlinks to BOCI Group’s own website material) is provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked sites does not in any way form part of this report. Accessing such websites shall be at your own risk. BOCI Group may, to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities referred to in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or other financial instruments thereon. BOCI Group may, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the information or opinions presented herein, or the research or analysis on which they are based, before the material is published. BOCI Group and the analysts preparing this report (each an “analyst” and collectively the “analysts”) may have relationships with, financial interests in or business relationships with any or all of the companies mentioned in this report (each a “listed corporation” and collectively the “listed corporations”). See “Disclosure”. Information, opinions and estimates are provided on an “as in” basis without warranty of any kind and may be changed at any time without prior notice. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice nor a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances. Nothing in this report constitutes a personal recommendation to you. This report has been prepared and issued by BOCI Research Limited. This information is confidential and is intended solely for the use of its recipient. This report is distributed in Hong Kong by BOCI Research Limited and BOCI Securities Limited; in Singapore by BOC International (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.; and in the United Kingdom by Bank of China International (UK) Limited. This information may only be issued or passed on to any person in the United Kingdom if that person is of a kind described in Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotions) Order 2001 or otherwise pursuant to exemptions to section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. In addition, no person who is an Authorised Person may issue or pass on this information, or otherwise promote BOCI Group, to any person in the United Kingdom other than under the rules of the Financial Services Authority (FSA) applicable to such Authorised Persons. This report and any information, material and contents herein are intended for general circulation only and do not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs or any particular person. The investment(s) mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this report should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of such investment(s), taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to purchase any of such investment(s). The suitablity of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on, described in or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on a person’s individual circumstances and objectives and should be confirmed by such person with his advisers independently before adoption or implementation thereof (either as is or is varied). Without prejudice to any of the foregoing disclaimers, to the extent that the reader is an accredited or expert investor as defined in Regulation 2 of the Financial Advisers Regulations (“FAR”) of the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) of Singapore (“FAA”), BOC International (Singapore) Pte Ltd is in any event exempted (i) by Regulation 34 of the FAR from the requirement to have a reasonable basis for making any recommendation as mandated under Section 27 of the FAA, and (ii) by Regulation 35 of the FAR from the requirements in Section 36 of the FAA mandating disclosure of any interests in securities mentioned in this report, or in their acquisition or disposal, that it or its associated or connected persons may have. The recipient of the analysis or report should contact BOCI in Singapore if they have any queries as to the report/analysis. Copyright 2008 BOCI Research Limited, BOC International Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries and affiliates. All rights reserved.
  Toll free numbers to Hong Kong: China North: 10800 8521065 China South: 10800 1521065 Singapore: 800 852 3392
        BOCI Securities Limited 20/F, Bank of China Tower 1 Garden Road Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2867 6333 Fax: (852) 2147 9513
  BOC International (UK) Limited 90 Cannon Street London EC4N 6HA United Kingdom Tel: (4420) 7022 8888 Fax: (4420) 7022 8877
  BOC International (USA) Inc. Room 202, 1270 Avenue of the Americas New York, NY, 10020, USA Tel: (1) 212 259 0888 Fax: (1) 212 259 0889
  BOC International (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. Reg. No. 199303046Z 4 Battery Road 4/F Bank of China Building Singapore 049908 Tel: (65) 6412 8856 / 6412 8630 Fax: (65) 6534 3996 / 6532 3371
  BOC International (China) Limited 39/F Bank of China Tower 200 Yincheng Zhong Road Shanghai Pudong District 200121 China Tel: (8621) 6860 4866 Fax: (8621) 5888 3554
 
BOC International Holdings Limited Beijing Representative Office 15/F, Tower 2, Yingtai Business Center No.28, Finance Street, Xicheng District, Beijing 100032, China Tel: (8610) 6622 9000 Fax: (8610) 6657 8950
 

同类报告

外行报告 Hope from Santa Claus 00:33
外行报告 Hong Kong/ China Morning Notes 00:33
外行报告 HK/China Daily Update 00:33
外行报告 Asian long-short strategy 00:33
外行报告 Asian Daily 00:33
外行报告 每日海外市场信息 00:33
外行报告 MIIT issues BYD licence to launch F3DM 00:33
外行报告 Rating Change 00:33
外行报告 Residential market takes new hit from mortgage rate rise 00:33
外行报告 New measures to stimulate domestic consumption 00:33
外行报告 MoT & MoR Investment Budgets 00:33
外行报告 外部研究报告精编(第553期) 00:32
外行报告 感恩节回顾:美国市场近期止跌回升 00:31
外行报告 每日海外市场信息 00:31
外行报告 信诚证券:踏入12月 00:30
Copyright © 2006 - 2013 Panlv.Net All Rights Reserved